Hamid sahib has sent an addendum which I have pasted at the bottom of this post.

I had posted my take on this affair, which like most of my posts was really a way to insinuate that reasonably non-violent survival in Pakistan needs a stable secular and reasonably successful India. But the affair itself has interesting details and Mr Hamid Hussain is a very knowledgeable analyst with vast knowledge of the pakistani and Indian armies. Here is his take:

From: Hamid Hussain >
Subject: my two cents
To: “‘omar ali’” <omarali502000@yahoo.com>
Date: Saturday, March 31, 2012, 1:16 PM

More recently, Barack Obama has insisted he’s not about to relinquish his “right” to appoint the next president of the World Bank either. As a sop to the developing world, he has at least gone for someone with an Asian-sounding name, Dr Jim Yong Kim. But let’s not be flippant. Kim may be a first-generation Korean immigrant, yet in most other respects he’s an all-American boy. Ultimately, he’ll dance to his master’s tune.

Outside endemic corruption, uncertain or wholly absent rule of law, and relatively low per capita income and life expectancy, there wouldn’t appear to be much that unites this disparate collection of nations. But there are at least two things that do – high growth and trade.

Why a Brics-built bank to rival the IMF is doomed to fail

Why would Britain’s best-selling and best-loved broadsheet carry an article littered with “Asian-sounding name”, “hanger-ons“, “aggressive China” and outright dismissal of fledgling economic giants? The best answer I could find was in the classic British political comedy, Yes Prime Minister about “who reads the papers?”.

Optimists, rational or otherwise, often cite the passage of time as a powerful agent of change in the process of immigrant assimilation–a process that almost always involves people from the third world traveling to the first world to achieve temporary or permanent residence–and for the most part, are content to think this process a matter of hands-off public policy with regards to urban zoning, education and criminal law.  In England, where all of these strategies have been in place for over 50 years, the outlook on dissolving barbarian norms in the universal solvent of liberal-democratic society is uncertain(from The Telegraph, via Razib’s Pinboard):

The survey of 500 Asian men aged 16 to 34 was conducted for a Panorama investigation in to honour crimes.

It found 18 per cent thought punishments on women could be justified in some circumstances if they had dishonoured their family.

That could include disobeying a father’s wishes, wanting to marry someone the family or community considered unacceptable, going out in the evening unaccompanied or dressing in an unacceptable manner.

Three per cent said honour killing could be justified while a similar proportion were undecided.

Some 69 per cent said families should live according to the concept of honour of “izzat”.

The article did not mention whether or not the sample was restricted to Muslim South Asians but given any number of biases in choosing an area to sample, that kind of error is likely.  Regardless, the attitude that one is entitled to some form of redress upon being offended in some way related to one’s ethnicity/religion/national origin is no problem for modern western society to subsume, without gross negative exernalities as result, within the structure of civil litigation but the vigilante violence and misogyny of the British South Asian imaginary is not.  I am not optimistic about the UK’s ability to segregate and excise the cancer of barbarian norms that have accrued over the years though I do not envision a District(Banlieu)-13 situation.

At our very own High Commission. Three guesses as to the state of said toilet.

At independence in 1947, both India and Pakistan inherited British colonial institutions that they did not destroy and replace in one violent revolution, but that they were to use and modify over time until they became Indian and Pakistani institutions (even violent revolutions use existing institutions to some extent, but lets not quibble about details). The Karma of British Raj was bound to decay with time, but a new national feeling and national traditions would gradually replace what was being lost or modified. In Pakistan, the process at the top (less so at the bottom, where the decaying hulk of colonial rule is still the only administration in town) was beset from day one with the problem of marrying its dysfunctional and superficial foundational myth with actually existing realities and this problem remains unsolved to a large extent, but today’s post is about India.
The Indian army remained closer to the mold of the British Indian army than Pakistan’s army.  Politicians remained in charge at the top and (perhaps consciously, one must assume that some of them have brains) kept the army on a tight leash. This also meant the army remained relatively inefficient compared to Pakistan’s “one-window operation” run by the army chief with little or no interference from bloody civilians. The army was also encouraged to maintain its British traditions to a very great extent (again, one must assume that some politicians had brains) and those traditions kept army matters relatively insulated from the much muddier evolution of “Indianization” in the civilian sphere. Optimists must have hoped that Indian civilian traditions will improve faster than British-Indian military traditions decay and one day the trends will meet happily in the positive region of the graph. So how is that going?

Not as well as hoped. Current army chief General VK Singh got involved in a very public dispute over his birthday. A weak and incompetent civilian govt seems to have consistently bungled the handling of the matter. And now, in his last days, the chief has managed to muddy the waters in spectacular fashion with leaked letters and hints of factionalism in the army high command. The whole affair may blow over with a competent next chief and competent next cabinet, but right now, it doesnt look too good.

I would say the odds are in favor of the fuss blowing over and settling down. And life (and India) will go on. But for the sake of argument, let us assume this is a symptom of serious internal decay and not just one chief and one defense minister who don’t know what an unholy mess they are making here (and one weak PM who cannot seem to get it under control). What if this gets worse?

Indians can comment on what it means for them, but for Pakistanis, it will not be good news.  There is simply no way Pakistan can remain unaffected by any obvious hiccups in Indian affairs. Pakistan can (I know, it sound optimistic to me too) become a reasonably stable and functional postcolonial state without going through a bloody revolution (in fact, in Pakistan’s case it can become a stable and functional state ONLY if it successfully avoids the revolution). But to do so, the narrative of parliamentary democracy, civilian rule, compromise, peaceful borders and so on will have to dominate. And if India cannot seem to make it work, then it can never come to dominate in Pakistan. If India starts down the African path (I am not saying it will, this is probably a storm in largish teacup, but just assuming it does), Pakistan will then be dominated by the narrative of Madina e saani. The results for the entire region will be terrible. South Asia, without the successful evolution of Indianized Western style democratic institutions and a broadly secular India, is a zone of conflict. And the narratives driving that conflict will be religious, ethnic and caste-based and results (especially for North India-Pakistan…I am told the South is different, who knows) will be very violent and very nasty.
comments?

Addendum: The Indian Express has published a story that shows how serious the rift at the top was in January (I am not saying there was going to be a coup, I think Nitin Pai has it exactly right in his analysis). The problem here is not that the Indian army may try a coup. The problem is that this exposes how pathetic the standards of governance at the top of the ruling elite really are. This is not yet down to Pakistani standards, but the viceroy would not be amused.

I am still hopeful that even Pakistan will develop in a way that reasonable order and freedom can coexist and most of the population can get food to eat and I am not saying this is the end for India. But its not their proudest moment.

Just as a “what if”, what if things get worse rather than better with time? If India goes down, can Pakistan survive? maybe some rump Muslim warrior state would emerge from the chaos, maybe even one much bigger than the current Pakistan, but I dont see that as a step forward. Imagine the chaos in the region! The whole place could turn to glass if we ever launch our semi-functional weapons…Again, I dont think that is likely, but just imagine the possibilities..(Razib thinks it might be Panem? But i think if the current model gets totally discredited and sinks, the next step is total war and once modern states are out of the picture, the Muzzers have the edge, though maybe I shouldnt count the Sikhs out).
Need I repeat, this is just playing with unlikely scenarios. Mostly likely, the system will survive.

Zaid Hamid, a clown promoted by the security establishment (and very popular among the burger jihadi crowd, as can be seen by the comment in the link), or at least, by the jihadi faction of the security establishment for years, has now filed a petition in the Supreme court of Pakistan to bring anti-Islam and ante-Pakistan forces to heel. Most of those named in the petition are associated with SAFMA (South Asian Free Media Association), a group that has done great work to promote dialog between journalists in South Asia (or Greater India, if you prefer, though I have mostly surrendered to the “South Asia” terminology myself). The text of the petition is worth a quick read.

btw, the term “Madina e Saani” means “the second Madina”. In the mythology of Zaid Hamid and his followers, Pakistan is analogous to Madina in this way: after inviting the Meccans to Islam, the prophet was facing harsh criticism and maybe worse and moved to Madina (the Hijrah). He and his small band then organized an Islamic state in Medina that eventually reconquered Mecca. Pakistan is Medina saani. Our founders moved here from India, organized an Islamic state and will reconquer India from this base, emerging stronger than ever before.
It all makes perfect sense.

On his facebook page, he had this to say:

“Allahu Akbar!!!!

Today, we have filed a Petition in the Supreme Court against SAFMA for High Treason against Pak Sarzameen, its sacred ideology, its beloved founding fathers and waging a war against Pak Sarzameen, armed forces and our freedom on behalf of the enemies. 

We have demanded Death Panelty under article 6 High Treason law for All SAFMA leaders, members and supporters like Imtiaz Alam, Marvi Sermed, Najam Sethi, Hamid Mir, Asma Jahangir, Hasan Nisar, Khaled Ahmed, Beena Aarwar, Nusrat Javed and Ali Chishti! Now these snakes will be dragged to the court and confronted with their crimes against Pak Sarzameen InshAllah. 

Thusands of Pakistanis have joined hands alhamdolillah to expose and confront these snakes and now the Petition has been filed in the Supreme Court! By Allah, we will defend our Medina e Sani, its sacred ideology, its geography, its armed forces and our freedom!

For the first time in Pakistan history, media has been dragged to the court for treason and attacking the Islamic clauses of the Cosntitution and staging subversion and sabtage of the stage on behalf of the enemies in these times of war. 

Now there will be no neutrals! Either you are with SAFMA snakes or you are with patriots! We will add more names to the list of traitors as the case progresses, InshAllah! The battle has now gone to the new levels! Let the snakes burn in hell!

Agent Vinod was recently banned in Pakistan due to some references to ISI, but our friends at rupeenews have seen the movie and have a review.

I dont think rupeenews is representative of too many Pakistanis (though it does have a disproportionate number of fans in the Imran Khan party and in the military section of the ruling elite). In fact, half the Pakistanis I know around here have either seen the movie or plan to see it soon. But rupeenews is a good illustration of the unvarnished TNT mindset. Enjoy.

btw, there is a book by General Javed Hassan (commander of the forces that launched the disastrous Kargil intrusion) “India; a study in profile” that draws from the same well and is required reading in Pakistani military academies. I am trying to find a link to some of the content, but here is a capsule review from an Indian site: “In this volume, the author derides India by arguing that India is not a nation, characterizing India’s past as having a “total absence of any popular resistance against foreign domination and rule”, denounces the Indians as “less warlike”, attributes India’s military failures to “racial shortcomings”, among other derogatory characteristics of Hindus and Hinduism.”

From the NYT, I found the story of a struggling non-profit hospital in Brooklyn, previously led by a desi former banker, Rajiv Garg, and carrying the reputation of an institution run by cliques, circles of political patronage and, apparently, old-world nepotism:

It was not just political connections, but family and ethnic connections.

Consider “the House of Arya,” as some doctors refer to it.

Dr. Vijaypal Arya, a gastroenterologist, followed his brother, Yashpal Arya, also a gastroenterologist, to Wyckoff. They were joined by at least six other relatives.

“What I would say is that a lot of other people do the same thing,” Dr. Vijaypal Arya said.

Of course, that makes it OK.  When Garg lost his driving license (after falling asleep at the wheel) he billed the hospital for the use of a Cadillac and a Lincoln–leaving his employer to pay overtime for the drivers.  When he went to London for a business trip the total reimbursement came to $7,000.  He is, of course, unrepentant saying that he improved the hospital’s credit status in the market and saved millions of dollars (thus offsetting his baller lifestyle.)  Is that all?  Of course not:

An native of India who was educated in London, he moved to New York, where he was neighbors on Long Island with Dr. Addagada C. Rao, Wyckoff’s chief of surgery. In April 2008, Mr. Garg and Dr. Rao bought a struggling medical school in the Caribbean and signed an affiliation agreement with Wyckoff.

Garg’s rationale for this whirling miasma of corruption and waste was much like that of House Arya:

“There’s too much glue at Wyckoff,” Mr. Garg said. “Everyone knows each other. You have a lot of people whose relatives work there. Partly it’s the economics, partly it’s the work culture. It’s a free-for-all. To change that culture just didn’t work.”

He brushed aside questions about the Bentley.

“You know how many guys had 500 SE Mercedes there?” he said.

This is not the first time such things have happened in Sindh and unfortunately, it probably wont be the last. As the modern world, with all its mixed blessings, slowly takes birth in greater India, the barbarians are out in force. If anything, the first turn of the spiral seems to have led into greater darkness in parts of the region. India, officially secular and modern, is not that different from officially Islamic Pakistan at the local level. Gangsters thrive at ground level and there are gangsters of every imaginable stripe in action. But Pakistan, as usual, likes to stay one step ahead of the competition. Not only does gangsterism thrive and take on Islamic color, the availability of Islamist blasphemy and apostasy memes makes it easy to intimidate “moderates” and permits local gangsterism to find support and sanction at higher levels. The state, caught in the coils of its own moronic Islamist mythmaking, is unable to vigorously defend its British-derived modern institutions. Anyway, that is all material for another post (or for posts in the past) but today is about Rinkle Kumari and 2 other Hindu girls who are the latest victims of this “grab and convert” method of obtaining Hindu girls for Mian Mithoo and his minions.

Today, the chief justice of Pakistan seems to have split the difference. He didnt send Rinkle back to her kidnappers. But he did not send her back to her family either. He sent her to a Dar-ul-Iman. If initial reports are correct (and I look forward to comments from people in Karachi who know the situation better) she was sent to Panah, which is an excellent and well run shelter and where she MAY actually be safe for a few days. But this is still a very weak judgment. For someone in the position of the chief justice to try and accomodate the local Islamist gangsters to any extent is not a good sign.

Still, if you are an incorrigible optimist, you may find a sliver of hope in this story. Hundreds of girls have been abducted and converted (into Muslims and usually into sex slaves) for decades, but this time the Hindu community in Sindh has mobilized, civil society has mobilized to some extent and several local Sindhi organizations have mobilized. There is hope. But it is still very dark for the weakest sections of society.

Could any real country have an economy like Panem’s? Actually, yes. Not exactly analogous, but: More mobile phones than lavatories for a booming India. I would currently bet that a future like India writ-large is somewhat more likely than China or USA writ-large. Though I don’t think there are any overwhelming odds here.