Tonite hot on agenda is: Deutsche Bank’s Sanjeev Sanyal has penned a must read macro analysis titled “The End of Population Growth.” One particular chart: namely that comparing world fertility rates in 1950-1955 and 2010-2015 is shocking, the surprising implication of the chart leads Sanyal to declare that the period set to begin in just 10 years “will be one of the most important turning points in history” simply because: “the human race will no longer be replacing itself by the early 2020s. Population growth will continue for a few more decades because of momentum from the age structure and people living longer but, reproductively speaking, our species will no longer be growing.” And since global reproduction will not be net additive, it will be net subtractive… and on a long-enough timeline the world’s population will drop to zero… via my Dad’s facebook.
In 1750, India and China accounted for 75% of the world’s industrial production. Even till 1830, that is a mere 180 years ago, India and China accounted for 60% of the world’s industrial production. India produced better steel than Sheffield, built ships, produced vast amounts of textiles, dyes and a hundred other diverse commodities.
Paddy production in Chengalpattu (near the present Chennai) in 1760 to 1770 amounted to 5 to 6 tons per hectare, probably better than the output in modern India. Indian agricultural labourers earned higher real wages compared to labourers in England.
“Every village has a school”, Sir Thomas Munro. “There is hardly a village, great or small, throughout our territories, in which there is not at least one school, and in larger villages, more.” G L Prendergast, 1820. “There are 1,00,000 village schools in Bengal and Bihar alone”. William Adam 1830. (The Legend of the Hundred Thousand Schools). Further reports to London from the local Collectors state that the duration of study varied between 5 to 15 years and all the four castes were represented amongst the students. Contrast this with England. The total number of schools, both private and public, in England, in 1801 was 3,363. The total number attending those schools was around 40,000 and “…the average length of school life rises on a favourable estimate from about 1 year in 1835 to about 2 years in 1851”.
India had a written Constitution and a functioning democracy in the 9-10 century AD itself. The Constitution and the Methodology of Elections and Administration is chiseled in stone and empaneled for all to see in Uttaramerur Temple, 35 Km from Kanchipuram. Did not the same Cholas spread the ‘local’ culture all over the Far East?
How do you say “hum do hamare do” in Chinese? First you have to acknowledge the pain suffered by millions of families caused by social engineering. But ideology (and face) must be preserved at all costs, which makes an “apology tour” unlikely. Nevertheless this is promising news:
The official Xinhua News Agency said the “China Development Research Foundation” recommends a two-child policy in some provinces from this year and a nationwide two-child policy by 2015.
It is past time to recognize “one-child” policy as a barbaric one, regardless of how much economic benefits it may have produced (how about the millions of Chinese men who will remain unmarried and the women who feel unloved). Even baby steps to bring back babies will be a step forward.
It is an open question how much Indians eulogize their army. Shanth and many others feel that the Army receives undiluted (unreserved?) praise. OTOH the media superstars (Arundhati Roy, Pankaj Mishra) have been relentless in their criticism of Army’s actions in Kashmir, Manipur, Assam etc. A money quote from the Queen of Kottayam (Kottayam is about 100km north of D’puram):
The Indian state is “an essentially upper-caste Hindu State…which harbours a reflexive hostility towards the ‘other’. One that, in true colonial fashion, sends the Nagas and Mizos to fight in Chhattisgarh, Sikhs to Kashmir, Kashmiris to Orissa, Tamilians to Assam and so on.”
Taking paramilitaries into account, one is inured to frequent reports of 40-50 troops being butchered by the Maoists. The profound image is of a weak corrupt exhausted demoralized cadre taking on (reluctantly) a well disciplined ruthless fighting machine. At least in Pakistan the excuse is that an Islamic Army does not want to be seen as co-operating with infidels to knock-off pious muslims who are merely defending their izzat.
Recently (as Omar has pointed out from time to time) the Army has also been hit with one crisis after another (scams, hostilities between jawans/officers, birth certificate saga etc).
Now the focus in on a different dark matter: a bitchy bureaucracy thwarting the dreams of an honorable man. What is interesting to note is the comfort level of the establishment in taking aim at the supposedly sacrosanct military.
“Major Vikas Kumar’s dreams of marrying the Bangalore-based 29-year old Sri Lankan student hit a roadblock with the Army ordering an investigation into “the purpose behind him coming in contact with a foreign national”. In response to his plea to quit since service rules bar officers from marrying foreigners, his commanders refused to relieve him, citing a severe staff crunch. The signals corps officer then went to court.
A division bench presided over by Chief Justice Sen Tuesday reserved judgment on an appeal filed by the Union government challenging an order of a single judge bench which had ruled in Maj. Kumar’s favour.
Displeased with the arguments of the government counsel, Justice Sen observed: “This is not a khap panchayat, this is the Army.” He also said, “We can’t understand the Army’s stand at all. This is most unfortunate for the man. One of India’s Presidents, also the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, was married to a foreigner.” (A reference to K R Narayanan who was married to Ma Tint Tint of Myanmarese origin). “
Most unfortunate indeed.
This certainly ties in with Sid’s earlier post on not being attractive to the ladies.
The first is somewhat of a trend story buttressed by fMRI imaging–referencing the very real fact that many narcissistic and antisocial behaviors are no longer sufficient conditions for a personality disorder diagnosis in the DSM V–and the second an illustration of what appear to be enduring trends in Chinese (and SA) educational culture. I’m not qualified to evaluate the evidence for/against a rising trend in psychopathy but I do have confidence in the position that savagely beating your children doesn’t improve educational or health outcomes. When you can’t teach children by using examples of human beings acting as people capable of empathy (or even sympathy,) because acting in such a way is not considered (or no longer) to be a norm in that society, doesn’t it become easier to rationalize bouncing a 4 year-old girl’s head off the floor? How about rape?
My friend Ammar points me to:
Based on John Masters novel which appeared in 1954 and became a sensation, Bhowani Junction, the movie in 1956, featured Ava Gardner and Stewart Granger- both were famous Hollywood stars. The movie was made in England and at Lahore railway station, Pakistan in 1954 and featured Neelo who later became a prominent Pakistani actress.
Prashanth raises an important point.
Steve Sailer (who is a distinguished “hot-linked” blogger on BP) is a Latter-Day-Saint in the “IQ focus” movement. I am a bit rusty in Sailer-isms but here are a few “top hits”.
1) Whites in America are being diluted by low IQ immigrants- close the borders now.
2) No amount of affirmative action can help blacks in the US (native variety not recent imports)
3) India vs China: China will rumble and India will stumble (that and a bumbling Nehru gets you to D).
Priya has a question (rhetorical?): “Do east Asian tiger mothers pair their high expectations with over indulgence of boy children (and a corresponding under indulgence of girl children), or is that just a desi phenomenon?”
Consider the gender gap report which specifically examines the men/women divide (www3.weforum.org/docs/GGGR12/MainChapter_GGGR12.pdf)
SA: Sri Lanka 39, Bangla 86, India 105, Nepal 123, Pak 134 (of the total 135 countries) EA: Vietnam 66, China 69, Japan 101, SoKo 108. Philippines seems to be an outlier at #8.
India vs China. On the face of it there is no comparison at all China is far ahead. Except for two statistics which are quite damning IMO.
1) China has the highest female suicide rate in the world (500/day). It is also one of the rare countries where female suicide rate exceeds the male one. 2) Sex ratio at birth: China has one of the worst SRB rates (120). India in comparison is 111 (2011 data).
2A) Also there are massive human rights violations in China wrt forced abortions.
When Ji Yeqing awakened, she was already in the recovery room. Chinese authorities had dragged her out of her home and down four flights of stairs, she said, restraining and beating her husband as he tried to come to her aid.They whisked her into a clinic, held her down on a bed and forced her to undergo an abortion.Her offense? Becoming pregnant with a second child, in violation of China’s one-child policy.
The paragon that is china.
Perhaps living in London has made me extremely partial to preserving heritage at all costs (the Spectator has a cute review on “Old palaces for new plutocrats“). As an aside here is an interesting quotation:
(As one Khazakhstani plutocrat was overheard to say recently, ‘London is the only city where I can hold my wife’s hand in public.’ He could dismiss his bodyguards.)
Anyway back to my the main thrust of my post (obviously another theme is that support for the Global Khilafat is negatively correlated to the size of your portfolio) but I’m shocked by how the Ummah is so sanguine about the garish destruction of historical and religious architecture, which is simply irreplaceable.
Three of the world’s oldest mosques are about to be destroyed as Saudi Arabia embarks on a multi-billion-pound expansion of Islam’s second holiest site. Work on the Masjid an-Nabawi in Medina, where the Prophet Mohamed is buried, will start once the annual Hajj pilgrimage ends next month. When complete, the development will turn the mosque into the world’s largest building, with the capacity for 1.6 million worshippers.
But concerns have been raised that the development will see key historic sites bulldozed. Anger is already growing at the kingdom’s apparent disdain for preserving the historical and archaeological heritage of the country’s holiest city, Mecca. Most of the expansion of Masjid an-Nabawi will take place to the west of the existing mosque, which holds the tombs of Islam’s founder and two of his closest companions, Abu Bakr and Umar.
“Their excuse is they want to make more room and create 20 spaces in a mosque that will eventually hold 1.6 million,” says Dr Alawi. “It makes no sense. What they really want is to move the focus away from where the Prophet is buried.”