The political situation for Congress is dire. The Dalits in UP/Bihar are out of reach as are the Other Backward Castes (OBC). In Maharashtra the coalition with Sharad Pawar’s party is on tenterhooks. Many of the west and north states are under stable BJP rule. In the east and south Congress is at the mercy of junior partners. In Delhi proper, it is getting brutalized by the mosquito bites of Arvind (I am dengue) Kejriwal. Finally a general crisis of confidence is afflicting all major institutions (army, business, press) except perhaps the Supreme Court and the Auditor General (who bites equally hard).
Still things would have been manageable if things were stable in the one state which has almost always backed Congress from independence. Indira Gandhi used to romp home with massive majorities from a local seat. In 1991 when the first reforms were launched by Manmohan Singh, it was only possible due to the steadfast support from Andhra Pradesh (it was fitting that the then prime minister Narasimha Rao hailed from AP).
But today Andhra Pradesh is in turmoil. A Congress scion is threatening to take away coastal seats. And the splittist movement in Telangana will ensure zero votes in the interior. The only way out is to unleash communal forces such that Hindus will vote out of anger (there is no BJP in AP) and Muslims will vote out of fear (just as they did in 2009 after 26/11).
The Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen has threatened withdrawal of support to the ruling Congress government in Andhra Pradesh over the temporary shed for Bhagyalakshmi Temple near Charminar. Likening to the situation to the Babri Masjid issue, the threat comes over the arrest of 8 legislators of the party protesting against the canopy that is an alleged violation of court orders. The MIM, which has 7 members in 295-member state assembly is a crucial ally for the Congress….
Asaduddin Owaisi the chief of MIM is a truly unpleasant thug. He and his goons attacked Taslima Nasreen when she was visiting Hyderabad. The moment you hit a woman (with intention) you belong in prison for a very long time. But nothing happened because Taslima was making things uncomfortable for the Congress and she had to be booted out of the country.
Now the wheel has turned full circle. Owaisi is in prison (temporarily) for “disturbing the peace.” He has withdrawn support at both state and national level. Congress will probably green-light Telengana (it was being held back in part to pacify Owaisi). As Hindus and Muslims both get pummeled by actions of cynical politicians, that would perhaps be the only silver lining.
regards
https://indiawires.com/13995/news/national/mim-withdraws-support-to-andhra-congress-government/
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/Bhagyalakshmi-temple-Tension-in-Hyderabad-Old-City-MIM-MLAs-arrested/articleshow/17186406.cms
Taslima attack video (the comments are even more despicable than the attack itself)
splittist
– Good Chinglish!
english with chinese characteristics?
regards
Lol
This and the previous column are too adhoc, and giving out some easy, but incorrect answers. I dont ahve time to rebut line/by/line, but the following egregious ones stood out:
1. Many west and North states are under stable BJP rule:
Name one outside Gujarat; not MP, HP, etc… if congress puts out some dudes with heart beats, they can win tomorrow in these states
2. The Andhra turmoil: Most of congress issues are Telangana/AP and loss of jagan mohan reddy-related. You need to interpret Telangana/AP issue as “absolute lack of progress outside a chose area”. It happened in karnataka and it will happen in Andhra. Harking back to block voting under Indira does not explain anything.
3. The earlier West Bengal issue was really egregious. For 30 long years a class-based charade was perpetrated by upper class Brahmins. Now, the Muslims, and SC/ST are awake and the block vote noo loner exist. Imagine this as what happened to the Indra Ghandhi Congress vote (SC/ST+brahmin+muslim block vote) failure, happening to the left front.
Democracy in India is ultimately a caste vote calculus, and no amount of religious calculation attempts will change anything. And that is the reasion why BJP is a 140 vote wonder in LS, and Muslims (ergo anti-muslimism) play little or no role.
Demography is Desitiny! in the US and in India.
“Name one outside Gujarat; not MP, HP, etc”
Chattisgarh and Punjab are also included in the BJP axis.
MP is an unheralded BJP success story in some ways brighter than Gujarat. Gujarat currently is facing a circular firing squad of Modi vs Non-Modi BJPites (Modi is still expected to win). Shivraj Chouhan has no enemies to speak of and had a superb industrial meet recently. Indore is shining as an educational hub. MP tourism is adjudged the best in India. Name one man willing to take him on? All you have is Digvijay Singh whining that Ambanis should be ashamed of comparing Chouhan with their own father. Right, what do they know?
regards
http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_digvijay-singh-takes-on-anil-ambani_1758193
http://forbesindia.com/article/close-range/madhya-pradesh-cms-current-focus-is-state-not-nation/34083/1
“Now, the Muslims, and SC/ST are awake and the block vote noo loner exist”
Do you have any numbers to back up your wishful thinking (I did include the recent voting pattern in the Lok Sabha by-elections)?
Also who are these unknown Dalit/Muslim leaders that will take Bengal by storm? Mayawati and Nitish Kumar are the tallest Dalit leaders in the country, they always manage to lose their deposits in Bengal.
In the Murshidabad election the Islamist parties got crushed (they always do). There are no (false) charismatic leaders like Badruddin Ajmal like in Asom next door.
Even BJP which has been trying to establish a foot-hold in Bengal for donkey’s years have been going nowhere (at 10% they can play the spoiler role which I emphasized). Congress is declining rapidly. The battle for panchayat elections next year will be a straight fight between Mamata and the Left.
regards
PS One reason why north-indian parties/leaders do so poorly in Bengal is perhaps a latent xenophobia (comparable to the average Tamil). Mayawati may be “Dalit Ki Beti” but she will not get Dalit votes in Bengal/TN.At least TN has some home grown Dalit leaders, Bengal has none.
AFAIK Nitish is not Dalit but a Kurmi which is second important “backward caste” after Yadavs in Bihar,
Also to best of my knowledge the caste make up of Trinamul Congress leadership is more or less same as Communists, Mamata Bannerji is a Brahmin
You are absolutely correct, TMC leadership is majority upper-caste with a sprinkling of muslims, tribals(ST) and dalits(SC). And yes it does mirror the Left.
With ref to Nitish, he is a Kurmi but gets robust support from the so-called Maha-Dalits, the lowest in the caste pyramid.
His modus operandi is to micro-manage caste calculations to defeat his (low-caste) opponents. You can call it narrow-casteing (apologies).
http://www.theunrealtimes.com/2012/06/12/nitish-kumar-further-splits-mahadalits-into-super-hyper-mahadalits-as-part-of-social-engineering/
Key quote: “Modi says casteism is Bihar’s bane. Please don’t preach to us. Micro-segmentation along caste lines is preferable to Hindutva based consolidation accompanied by religious polarization for truly inclusive growth”
regards
I guess you must be aware of it, but just in case unreal times is a satirical web site.
That said you have got Nitish Kumar’s strategy correct, he has divided Dalits into Maha-Dalits and what not, not sure about the returns though.
“Demography is Desitiny! in the US and in India”
I never suggested otherwise. Today the muslim demographics are strongest in North Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, East Maharashtra (Marathawada), Telengana, Bengal, Assam, and West UP. Congress and its allies (TMC, NCP, AIML, MIM) have done exceedingly well in these belts (for Lok Sabha seats) in 2009. If muslims had not voted en masse for the Congress then Mayawati would have been the Third Front leader and first Dalit PM of India. That may very well happen in the next elections.
regards
Dude; what is this obsession with Muslims? In India, they have nothing and are now nothing. At this point, they are one step above Dalits. Even, if every dalit and every muslim voted for your fictitious anti-national leader, still the chances for any such leader ruling India is remote. Just look at the distributionss of the two minority poulations in the country. May be about 100 seats which have a joint Dalit-Mulsim Majority. The DAlit population is uniformly distributed at about 16-17 %; the Muslim population is highly concentrated in may be, four states. All I said above was
1. In the Indira Ghandhi past, Dalits and Muslims block voted for Congress.
2. The loss of block vote is what is bothering the congress.
Soft Hindutva, Hard Islamism are not nationally relevant; there are some 30-40 Netas who are state chieftains,; control caste blocs; it is for Sonya and Congress to collect them and keep in line. Nobody 50 miles south of Jhansi knows who Mayawati is; Nobody 100 km south of karagpur knows the name of the chief minister of Bengal
is. It is all demgraphy/caste blocs.
“Dude; what is this obsession with Muslims? In India, they have nothing and are now nothing. At this point, they are one step above Dalits.”
You are dead wrong. Look up the Sachar Committee Report. Muslims (to the extent they can be counted as one monolithic unit) are one step below Dalits (due to the impact of reservations).
Another thing “dude” learn to spell proper names (at least) properly. It is Gandhi not Ghandhi (the first time you did it I thought it was a typo).
Finally what is with the “anti-national” point? In my book Owaisi, Sonia and Modi are anti-national. Mayawati is 100% national (not that she cares about my certificates). Tarun Gogoi and Akhilesh Yadav who have a lot of Muslim blood on their hands are also anti-national. You need to reduce your set of pre-conceived notions.
regards
and, why is “National” so important to you? What is National? What is Nation? I am Anti-National in your description of Nation. I am fine with Sonia or Modi as leaders.
I dont want to iterate this argument endlessly. I am fine with caste grouping coalitions; that is the reality in India, in the world. However, we could all do without a soft core Bengali Hindu Nationalism which defines India from a forward class perspective and considers backward classes, as the “Other”.
“and, why is “National” so important to you? What is National? What is Nation? I am Anti-National in your description of Nation. I am fine with Sonia or Modi as leaders. ”
Now you are just being silly.
India is recognized as a nation and any action that is taken against its citizens that is harmful (especially in an illegal or extra-legal manner) would be considered anti-national.
Specifically in the case of the leaders that I have mentioned, instigating (also condoning and not resolving) violence against one community or the other (all of which comprise India as a nation) is anti-national.
But then you can have a different opinion and vote in mass murderers (as long as they are not convicted). That is your right as an Indian citizen.
regards
Said Hindu nationalists, I would imagine, would do a better job of tightening borders with Bangladesh.
” Nobody 50 miles south of Jhansi knows who Mayawati is; Nobody 100 km south of karagpur knows the name of the chief minister of Bengal”
This is bullshit.
+1
Mamata/TMC is now the largest opposition party (7 MLAs) in Manipur. TMC has 5 MLAs in the Arunachal Pradesh Assembly, 1 MLA in Assam, 1 MLA in Uttar Pradesh, 1 MP in Rajya Sabha from Jharkhand (which is 100 km south and west of Kharagpur).
BSP/Mayawati has MLAs from MP and Chattisgarh. There is currently one MP from MP. She has not won any seats from Maharashtra but secured as high as 4% of the vote in state elections. All these states qualify as more than 50 miles south of Jhansi.
regards
“I guess you must be aware of it, but just in case unreal times is a satirical web site.”
you never can tell from the name innit?
Nitish’s strategy will not work in Bengal. There are huge Bihari populations in Kolkata, Asansol and Kharagpur but in my experience they skew upper-caste (they claim persecution in Bihar, or more accurately a loss of their earlier superior perch). And they are not immune to feelings of snobbery etc
regards
I was just confused with the ref, BTW while Nitish has fielded some candidates in UP (and in Gujarat ostensibly due to Bihari worker population), I agree that he doesnt have any chances in Bengal. Mayawati is a whole diff story, the way she inverted the traditional Congress coalition (with Dalits at helm) was nothing short of astonishing, she could have been a contender for PM, too bad her greed laid waste to her plans.
fascinating thread!
i have no other thing to say except repeat demography –> destiny
is this why steve sailer is bp hot linked?
But the permutations of castes possible are huge and complex. so for example nobody could have predicted that muslims[in the form of a stellar muslim league] could have done what a century of reform hindus wanted -unite warring hindu castes. But just when you thing aah! Hindu vs. Muslims, you have to remind yourself muslims are OBC(other backward castes) in kerala like Ezhavas(that united with non-OBC Nairs to form the Grand Hindu Alliance). So basically OBCs share a lot of objectives, including raising cap on entitlements[sid, i am looking at you here]. Factoring in christains.. yes you can tear your hair out.
Don’t forget it was a quid pro quo- the Nairs got reservations for (economically backward) forward folks.
From the language used by the leaders they may as well have been signing the Good Friday agreement.
………..
NSS took the first step when it withdrew on August 27 its petition filed in Supreme Court in 2008 against the state government’s then decision to raise the “Creamy Layer” limit eligible for reservations for backward communities from Rs.2.5 lakhs to Rs.4.5 lakhs. Next day, SNDP returned the gesture by announcing the withdrawing of its petition against the previous United Democratic Front government’s decision to give 10% reservation to the economically backward among the upper castes in educational institutions. “We don’t mind giving the poor among the upper caste a privilege if it would help Hindu unity” says Vellappally Natesan, General Secretary, SNDP.
…………………
As they say, nothing focuses the mind like a hangman’s noose
regards
i think the general rule is that india doesn’t have politics based on ideologies, it has one based on who gets what[of the patronage system].
One of the most succinct description of our secular socialist Republic