Open Letter to the Taliban
I agree with this letter 100%, and not just because I have greatly respected its author, Barnett Rubin, for over a decade. Barnett Rubin has conducted secret negotiations with the Taliban on behalf of the US government and has a very distinguished academic and diplomatic career.
I strongly urge every reader of Brown Pundits to read this Open Letter to the Taliban in full.
A few days ago, magic happened. The “ENTIRE” international community, led by China, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and USA placed Pakistan on a Terrorism Financing List. Please read the comments on this historic development by our very own Brown Pundit, the ever wise ever erudite Slapstik. Everything has changed.
Our best friends at Deep State GHQ [General Headquarters] are considering new possibilities for the first time since . . . well for the first time since the 1970s. The Taliban issued a peace letter. And we are off to the races! Where will we end up? Do you think I have a clue? :LOL:
Please share the “Open Letter to the Taliban” with all your friends. And share your comments below.
For reference Barnett Rubin has written a summary of the situation in Afghanistan, the various internal players and their external sponsors that is worth reading. Additionally, the UN has released their 2017 report on Afghan civilian casualties. Of special note are pages 45-47 on civilian casualties caused by the growing Afghanistan Air Force (AAF).
Love you all. Checking out 🙂
https://youtu.be/LxFkFaMdURA
This time is different:
-Afghanistan is different
–ANSF are more capable
–GIRoA civilian governance and civil society is more mature and deeper; better educated
-Pakistan is different (more open to peace)
-Gulf is different (more supportive of peace)
-China is different (pressuring Pakistan and the Taliban to make peace and providing more support to ANSF and GIRoA)
-International community is mini surging ANSF capacity and ANSF enablers
-Increased pro GIRoA leverage
-QST (Quetta Shura Taliban) local Taliban is more anti Pakistan than ever and fearful of Daesh, Peshawar Shura, LeT, JeM, AQ, LeJ/Sipah e Sahaba/Jundullah (many of these may have switched to Daesh), IJU/IMU (many of these might have switched to Daesh), TTP/TNSM (many of these might have switched to Daesh)
-QST local Taliban is tired of war and more eager to make peace.
I think this time could work, as long as expectations are realistic. A majority of the approximately 36,000 ANSF killed in action (KIA) over the past 4 years are not killed by local QST Taliban. These Jihadis (who have much less popular support inside Afghanistan than QST) will likely keep fighting. So peace does not end the war but flips a major player from anti GIRoA to pro GIRoA. Similar to Hekmatyur flipping to support GIRoA; but 5 X bigger. This is still a very big deal. It will likely greatly reduce violence in many districts across Afghanistan and allow the ANSF to redeploy with greater density in Jihadi heavy areas.
The ANSF aren’t the same ANSF they use to be. One evidence of this is that the large majority of Afghan civilians killed/wounded by air strikes are committed by AAF versus international aerial forces. The AAF could be a lot larger and more capable in a few years; assuming India/China/Russia help with Mi17/Mi35; which might still happen.
I am hopeful that India/China/Russia donate large numbers of D-30s and train thousands of ANA crew members. If this happens the QST will have no choice but to respect the ANA.
I hope for expeditious delivery of the letter, the address on the envelope is
Taliban
C/O ISI
Army HQ
Islamabad
Pakistan
Vijayaraghavan, the Quetta Shura Taliban have seen this letter and are responding to it. Two open secrets about the Afghan members of the Quetta Shura Taliban that don’t agree with a caliphate that rules the world:
–they are almost completely dependent on Deep State GHQ
–they “HATE” Deep State GHQ and are trying to break free.
My sense is that they want to negotiate with GIRoA but are afraid of getting assassinated by Deep State or global Jihadis. Their families are tracked by ISI.
Are you interested in more articles on Afghanistan, Afghan institutions, ANSF and Afghan people?