183 thoughts on “Open Thread – 06/10/2022 – Brown Pundits”

  1. BJP is a stupid party that has no brains in terms of what it takes to change people. They believe in simple speeches/ quotas in ias, some schemes , scholarship as the answer to deal with muslims, hyper rightoids think violence alon solves it.

    The answer is a series of IF unless options. Threat of violence unless they are willing to undergo a secularization process.

    One has to take control of their education, religious education. Only example we know of as attempt at secularisation process among muslims that one can consider as part successful is ata turk and then the soviets. The post soviet muslim majority countries are probably the most secular lot.

    Nehru put Hindus/Hinduism in a straightjacket. Modi should do this to muslims. All mosques should be controlled by state. All education inside it should teach to conformity to constitution. Impose Uniform civil code, anyone advocating sharia, practice, either preaching it or soliciting priests to settle disputes shall be declared as enemy of Indian state for running a parallel to Indian judiciary.

    Also make an enemies act, Indian muslims forced partition of the country and in doing so forced ethnic cleansing/ genocide/ literally created India’s main enemy and congress party led by gandhi/ nehru gave all of them a clean chit and refused to intefere with their religion and abandoned millions of non muslims to second class citizenship and persecution.

    Any other country would have treated such traitorous minority extremely harshly not necessarily out of revenge but out of accountability. India has failed to hold those people who voted for pakistan accountable. So, create enemies act. Make invalid all voting rights and right of property of Indian muslims effectively for that reason and make them sign onto papers declaring that if they advocate against secular norms/laws/ , advocate violence against criticism of their faith, or solicit support from other islamic nations, ummah , their right to property and right to vote will be stripped out of them.

    Only if they sign that papers will their right to vote and right to property shall be guaranteed. Have laws similar to holocaust denial law. Any one who denies islamic fundamentalism, past or present will be sent to jail. This takes away the “fake liberals” and puts costs.

    Origin of secularism comes first out of protestant/ catholic wars followed by anti clericism in france. Christians did not wake up one day and said, “now we will be secular”. It was a thought process, change in intellecutal/political/financial trends ushered in from elightenment that led to all this. expecting muslims to undergo that without any pain is foolish and stupid. Only thing we can be sure of is that , in absence of critique of quran/ mohammd, there is zero possibility of muslims accepting secular norms.

    India state should have zero rights for those working to destroy the very norms of the state or those who give cover to this fanaticism. It is islamic fanaticism/ terrorism. It is not protest, the right not to criticize its belief is the same as right to islamic supremacy. In a nation , everyone should have right to criticize each others faith, in absence of which one is not a nation. One could argue the norms and taste with which one could accept such criticism, but once threats are made. They should take precedent.

    These are necessary because it is impossible to identify who among them are bigoted and who is not and there is a total unwillingness on their part to hand over or identify and accuse those going against the interest of state.

    One has to seize the means of education, religious education. All priests should also be taught secular norms and they should advocate them. All mosques should be regulated. The sections of autonomy for religious minority should be thrown out. India should do this now or risk further escalation.

    secularization is a process by which one shows the inadequacy of religious laws and religious explanations in the modern day world. without this, secularism makes no sense. people will keep trying to solve problems of society through religion.

    India should make clear to all muslim majority countries that criticism of their faith and founder is necessary for the process of secularization. If Indian muslims refuse this then they have no right to expect India to be a secular country and allow them the right to practice or propagate their faith.

  2. Secularization is a process where people acknowledge the inadequacy of religion in solving issues of society. Indian muslims will never accept that unless one shows the faults in their religion. That is not possible without criticism of their faith. One can do this through education pointing to specific hadiths, specific examples in past and how they are solved in modern secular way.

    A 3 trillion dollar nuclear powered country , third largest army in the world is allowing islamic states a veto in what it can say or cannot say in its own country?. How would chinese or americans react?. By worrying about oil or dealing with internal security first. There is no example of a successful major country that puts economy before internal security arrangement first. Effectively stating that India is not a nation and inviting further intervention from here on. I would send a couple of accidental missiles into kuwait.

    All this comes from the argument I made that the bjp only believes in muslim baiting for winning elections. They have no coherent idea of what it takes to create a nation or the socialization process by which one can accomplish such goals. If today many in India stand against caste discrimination, this happened because of a socialization process that was engineered. social engineering is what every state does and should do in crafting and creating the populace in conjunction with its ideals.

    Modi and bjp are not just morons, they are cowardly sniveling pieces who abandon their own. To abandon their own woman spokesperson to the wolves is disgraceful. And all this because modi and shah believe in electoral politics of incitement to win elections.

    This should have been sorted out right after 1947 by having uniform principles, goes to show how badly nehru/gandhi miscalculated. Now the population is 200 million, when is that magical future date and economy when this will be dealt with?. in some magical 2050, with another modi?. who here has seen the future, who can ever be sure?. The purpose of power is to set the foundation stones right. once done , others can deal with issues of economy . Will the Indian govt do this once the population rises even more, relatively from the present 14% to 20 %?. Will the govt have the will, political will, can one be sure bjp will have the same dominance electorally in that future as well?.

    All this because bjp confuses winning elections , economic schemes with social engineering . It is not the same, the first is necessary, second is useful but only through effective social engineering can you actually solve these issues. No attempt by bjp to take over all mosques/ effectively controlling the mullahs and mosques is necessary pre requisite to secularization of muslim community. And its own goals of hindutva leads to confusion, if it is ok for its own religious triumph, logically, can they deny others their own forms of religious supremacy?.

  3. I understand the frustration but I am inclined to go with Akshay Alladi’s take i.e. no point in opening multiple fronts just for the sake of it. Even the anglo empire does not go about poking everyone mindlessly. Be strategic.

  4. Imagine, what would India do, if it had 30 trillion $$$. You have state capacity etc, what will you do? .you still have to come to some version of this. No amount of state capacity can be enough without changing the norms and ideals of community/ society.

  5. The current riots will only benefit the BJP electorally in the same way the Sweden riots benefited right wing parties in Europe.

    You can’t even blame the Indian police for failing to maintain law and order given that the much better trained and funded Swedish police couldn’t do so either.

    1. I notice the wester. media is largely silent in this.

      Maybe because they have this tension in their demographically collapsing societies as well.

      And it’s hard for them to find an acceptable anti-Hindu narrative here.

      Overall Indians are not thekedars of secular liberalism.

      Imo a Singapore like policy on religious intolerance is probably what is required. No point pointlessly offending any groups when you lack aukat to even have toilets for 100% of your own population and they have to go work as indentured servants overseas.

  6. Praveen Swami’s article is typical liberal white washing of islamic extremism.

    1. Does not mention that Rangila Rasul itself was a response to sacrilegious publication on Sita.
    2. HyperLinks to examples of Muslims supposedly killed by Hindus for Blasphemy. But when you click it goes to stories where Hindus were actual victims and Ms were perps.

  7. What is the percentage of IVC ancestry in Pakistani Sindhis, Pashtuns, Balochis, Brahuis, and most importantly Pakistani Punjabi Muslims (lower castes like bhangi and kanjar, middle castes like kammi and tarkhan and lohar and julaha, upper castes like jat and syed and rajput)? For Saraikis as well, what is the percentage? Can someone do an analysis?

    Is it true that Pakistanis from the Punjab and Sindh region generally have higher IVC ancestry and lower steppe & AHG ancestry than Indians in Punjab, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana..etc?

    Also, I also read somewhere that among certain upper castes in Punjabi Pakistan like Jat, steppe ancestry is concentrated amongst the maternal portion of the ancestry, is this true as well? in a recent paper on so-called gypsies in pakistani punjab, lower r1a was found but lots of j-ydna and r2…etc, which is associated with higher caste in indian punjab

    1. The closest living relics to the IVC peoples are mid case S Indians and Patels. IVC had a cline of AASI to iranic related. Even in the Western periphery samples, it was on average 25% in current data we have. It will likely go higher at sites within IVC and Eastern sites.

      Many Pakistani groups have too much steppe and that takes them further away from relationship to the IVC. The indus nationalism is very ironic, given Indus Valley people are genetically closer to some Indian groups than any Pakistani groups because some Indian groups literally fall onto the Indus Valley cline. Also, the Indus Valley existence in all of Gujarat is conveniently always forgotten.

      Get something straight. Indus valley itself had a range of AHG ancestry. Our data at the periphery shows it was 25%. Some samples are close to 50%. That is the periphery on the Western side.

      The issue is that people forget IVC ancestry= AHG+ iranic peoples. They don’t understand it is two components.

      1. Your series of informative replies I strongly appreciated. The so-called IVC ancestry in middle-caste South Indians is overloaded with AASI-like ancestry, somewhat different from the steppeless IranN-like ancestry found in the Rakhigarhi sample (it was over 75% IranN). In the Indus Periphery samples, the individual with the lowest AASI and highest IranN (i8726) had almost exclusively Pakistani groups as his/her closest living genetically similar descendants. This is highly remarkable. You can see it here: https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-f1d6e21eaf62c509f35ba0b89a64ac05-pjlq

        I mention this because I read that higher IranN ancestry is strongly correlated with maternal steppe ancestry (if steppe ancestry is present). This was strongly revealed, amongst other things, by the medieval roopkund samples. Haplogroups like J and R2 specifically were signals for maternal steppe. Ofcourse, steppe was in YDNA as well but it is the maternal part which is striking. Whereas for AASI-shifted people, they are blessed with the steppe in YDNA to a far greater degree, with steppe nowhere to be seen in the maternal line. A plausible hypothesis I have is that IVC wasn’t that egalitarian as has been usually believed and that there existed an upper-class who seemingly associated themselves in a positive manner with the arriving steppe aryans (obviously some time after the destructive arrival, i am sure it wasn’t that cheerful at first), while the lower-class in IVC was utterly despised by them. These ancient feelings of the bloodthirsty chariot-warriers have passed down to some extent to many northwest indians and pakistanis. In Pakistani Punjab and Sindh, the lower castes as you know possess a lot of AASI-ancestry compared to the upper castes. However, the IVC portion of the genetic ancestry of the upper castes is usually strongly shifted to IranN compared to the IVC portion of the lower castes which is generally AASI-like or a half-half mix of AASI-IranN.

        The Baloch in Harappaworld is also ofcourse IVC related, specifically IranN. Pakistan as a whole has greater Baloch and steppe on average than India, though individual groups like Jat Hindus and Rors in India possess far higher steppe than any Pakistani group. As you can see here, there are over 10 groups in Pakistan that have over 40% Baloch: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-9_HbzVQAMmkVx?format=jpg&name=large


        Pakistanis on average have higher steppe and this obscures their IVC ancestry to some extent but I think the originators of all that was great about IVC were no doubt the IranN-loaded people. This is obvious when we reflect on the fact that the groups who dominate rural Pakistan and NorthWest India have in their IVC ancestry mostly the IranN-like ancestry, as compared to groups in South India who no doubt have IVC ancestry but it mostly has a greater portion of AASI-like ancestry. My assumptions are somewhat careless and perhaps even rude but I think they are close to the truth. The fact that Pakistan has greater Baloch and Steppe on average and the fact that they have in their IVC ancestry higher portion of IranN which is associated with upper caste and maternal steppe and the fact archaelogically, Pakistan seems to possess far more complex IVC sites like Harappa and Mohanjo-Daro no doubt reveals a lot. Plausibly, the incoming Aryans may have “appreciated this region” and specifically it’s upper-class people to a greater degree compared to what lay beyond the five rivers. Indeed, the caste system is extremely weak compared to India. National surveys in Pakistan show that around 30-40% of recent marriages in rural Pakistan are between different castes, whereas the percentage is like 1% even for educated Indians. Many things are normal in Pakistan between castes where murder would be necessary in India. Perhaps the Aryans didn’t construct that intense of a ban on interracial affairs in Harappa and Mohanjo-daro due to reasons that have been revealed by this post. Once again, these thoughts may be utterly wrong but based on what I have read over the years, I think it may be close to the truth if it’s not the bare truth itself.

        Nationalism is a silly thing and the glory of India is the glory of Pakistan if we get rid of our prejudices. There was no Pakistan in 2200 BC. Many of the great Buddhist philosophers like Vasubandhu and Asanga were from modern-day Pakistan and they considered Patna (in Bihar) as a second home.

        Both Pakistanis and Indians, even Sri Lankans to some extent (due to ancestry), can consider IVC their own. Regardless, India is a far more educated and economically developed nation and it’s archaelogical funding outclasses that of the Pakistani side 20 times or something. Most of inscripted tablets which are possibly evident of writing are from Pakistan and moreover, Pakistan has a far stricter definition of what a IVC site is compared to the Indians which is far more lax. The glory of IVC is still unknown to some degree because the poor Pakistanis haven’t excavated even the majority of Mohanjo-Daro which is the most complex IVC site, so you can forget about other treasures laying around Sindh and Punjab waiting to be found.

        Unfortunately, I get the feeling that these treasures may be being destroyed even. Recently, a local controversy grew up which was reported by Sindhi newspapers in Pakistan that a bunch of villagers found ancient tablets buried deep outside their courtyard where a well was being modified and their children then proceeded to smash the tablets. This controversy wasn’t leaked out to the mainstream media due to fear of severe Western archaelogical outrage.

        Tablets with engraved inscriptions have been considered one of the most complex expressions of IVC along with the rich hygiene system. India also has evidences of writing in IVC but it’s mostly on pots. I can only wish that archaelogists from India should take a grand trip to Pakistan and inform them of their true ancestors who are far superior to the desert lizard-eating Arabs and force them to excavate every single portion of Pakistan in search of IVC cultural artifacts and architecture. This cancerous “IVC belongs to India” or “IVC belongs to Pakistan” mentality is destroying the entire search for what IVC really was. No doubt northwest India also has many IVC sites but if the Indians keep preaching that IVC belongs to them, the Pakistanis will be drowning in their self-guilt and never focus on archaelogy strongly. Someone needs to tell them that Pakistan probably has far greater IVC culture laying around and that they need to wake up and start the search.

        I can only wish that Razib the Great can take a look at this and give his take on my potentially silly words, hopefully someone can alert him.

    2. Not sure about maternal vs. paternal lineage. I am an example of someone with a more West maternal and a more East Paternal, with mt K1a and Y H respectively. And I’m Gujarati

    3. Pakistanis have more steppe on average. It is just that the most steppe groups happen to be in India. Jatt Sikhs are bit more steppe shifted than Muslim Jutts and Hindu Jaats are bit more steppe shifted than Jatt Sikhs and Rors are the most steppe shifted, clustering genetically near some very shifted iranic groups like Tajiks.

      I think your argument of more steppe+aasi is a comparison that works for Jatt Sikhs of India vs, Pakistani Jutts. But Hindu Jaats have less aasi and more steppe.

  8. The left wing – right wing architecture of politics came from the French Legislative Assembly during the 18th century. Monarchists and conservatives sat on the right side. Jacobins or the radicals sat on the left side.

    Girondins, were originally part of the Jacobins, but decided to adopt a central stance, after sensing the radical plans for the monarchy by the Jacobins. The Girondins were eventually tried and executed by the Jacobins. Their influence was totally purged. The Jacobin-Girondin duality was a result of the Revolution’s consolidation when it began to acquire power.

    BJP which has been by far the original thinker on the subcontinent with respect to jati, middle class, trade, economy & industrialisation now faces a Jacobin-Girondin impulsive phase.

    To consolidate or to lead another sally is the tactical question. To hive the radicals off and enable them to consolidate a new political party is the strategic question.

  9. After meekly going along with an Iran import ban on crude oil exports after the US prodded India to do so, it seems they may finally be turning a page and becoming more defiant of US diktat.


    I also noticed that at the recent Summit of the Americas, a number of countries’ presidents boycotted the meeting (Mexico being the most important one) since the US refused to invite Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua.

    All these signs point to weakening US hegemony, which will probably be good for India in the long run. It makes no sense at all for India to submerge its national security interest (e.g. buying cheap oil) because the US told it not to do so.

    I’ve been harshly critical of Modi in the past for submerging India’s interests because the US told him to. But it seems he finally, slowly, seems to return to his senses.

    Meanwhile, Pakistan failed to get an early July LNG shipment. Their energy crisis is about to get worse. Their new supposedly “experienced” economic team will have to rewrite their maiden budget because they forgot to add $7 billion dollars in debt due to foreign loans. The situation in Pakistan goes from bad to worse. Comically inept new gang.

    1. ‘All these signs point to weakening US hegemony, which will probably be good for India in the long run’

      One couldn’t be more wrong…

      1. You’re too obsessed with China, blinding you to the fact that the biggest threat to India is from within, often with the help of US-aligned NGOs and negative cultural influence.

  10. India should get along well with USA, we got on their wrong side in cold war, pak ended up with nukes. Lets not be foolish once again in defying superpower. We need oil, we should ask them to help us on this. We also should stop their interference inside India. Until we get to 20 trillion dollars atleast. Lets get along as well as possible with usa. strategic autonomy is not worth much because it means nothing. once we are powerful, we will automatically have strategic autonomy anyway.

    Lets not make virtue out of “strategic autonomy”.

    1. No guarantees that even if India goes along with US or for that matter any other power, why would they give up a low cost high return leverage like pak against IN.
      What is going to change at $20 T if US would still be at 7X our gdp. GDP is a good proxy for national capability. It is necessary but not sufficient. Do we honestly want to end up like SoKo and JP? High gdp but plunging birth rates and utterly dependent on a distant benefactor for security. Kowtowing to US did not prevent US from condoning increased CN National strength. In future they may have to Kowtow to CN anyway. Honestly JP and SoKo are still nestled within wider East Asian community where the history of national conflict has the features of an intra-civilization conflict rather than inter-civilizational one that we are faced with.+ JP is an island.
      There is a difference between strategic autonomy and strategic defiance.
      Yes we need western tech help but no need to be foot soldiers in service of empire. A lot of Chinese angst and perception of us is based on the behavior of certain sections of Indian society during China’s century of humiliation.
      “It is dangerous to be America’s enemy but fatal to be its friend “—Kissinger.
      The best option is to be an acquaintance.

      1. There are no guarantees for anything. But sitting stubbornly by urself will lead to others allying with eachother. If we don’t do as us wants, they will once again engage Pakistan. What really matters is, do you have leverage over others, do you have ability to hurt others. We found out what it is to be on the other side of usa. We will not cross China beyond our interests. But the Chinese value us only bcos we can ally with the west.

    1. Will ask Omar. Mukunda might be interested. Might be too confirmation bias though 🙂
      almost everything he said i tend to agree with.

      I am honestly looking for some moderate leftists to engage with – As i no longer see myself as of the left.

      1. @gaurav
        Interesting to see how common this shift is among many of us. Personally humbling to see oneself as part of a historical process as i have a diminishing sense of rational distance while evaluating politics lately. It isnt just the identity stuff and disingenuous culture games that put me off, but I’m less of a believer in the competence of public institutions. Younger self would feel so betrayed right now 🤷🏽‍♂️

    1. Getting their asses kicked for the last 8 yrs has knocked some sense into these leftiods. That’s why guys like Sheker Gupta are calling for a Hindu-Muslim Reconciliation.

    2. Everyone there talks like an American teenager ffs. Hindu, Muslim, doesn’t matter. The Global American Empire will be the only winner.

  11. If govt understands the concept of asabiya, it can proactively solve all this.

    Govt shud run islamist stings, get ordinary people to support for jihad, violence, rioting etc and arrest all those taking part in it. And all those who maintain a conspiracy of silence. Make it impossible for islamists to openly discuss these ideas among muslims. Everyone shud think that the other is a govt agent and trying to sell them out. All rioting, violence requires coordination, that requires a safe space where you can openly talk ad uou wish. To radicalise and recruit. If everyone thinks the other one is a sellout, these ideas will not be spoken so openly. Leading to less trust in each other. Do this over 100 yrs

  12. Indians are a confused lot, tjey can no longer summon their native spirit of maratha or sikhs having been colonized in their minds but they dont weaponize thr western colonial experience and their will to dominate and imprint themselves into the very way in which people think and act and see as appropriate to act. This conditiong that brits did to hindu elite should be replicated on muslims. Break their asabiya, get them to reflexively support constitutional values and criticise islamic ideas. Until all Muslims criticize these ideas as immoral as they are today, this battle wont be won.

    Have red cards, yellow cards, green cards for mosques, organisations for islamists and those who give cover to islamists. One has to go after those who give cover to these radicals under guise of historicity and moral relativism.

  13. I am making these arguments to show that “secular” paradigm itself can offer a lot of options, it also allows for conditioning and shap
    ing morals. Gandhian /nehru/ congress bullshitery must end. Make a law that those who deny islamic bigotry in past or present will be arrested for giving cover to islamism. This should take care of left liberal loonies.

  14. You can’t go around distinguishing between NS’ comments and Rushdie (as one prominent ‘constitutional law expert’ has done). If NS is in the wrong, then if anything Rushdie is far, far worse. She spoke off the cuff. He sat down and typed out a 500+ page novel (and all the drafts and redrafts that go with it).

    So the solution is simple. More speech for everyone and no blasphemy laws. But it won’t happen. The BJP has a vested interest in prodding muslim sensibilities and brain dead left-libs think they are being ‘good allies’ by pandering to the most regressive spokesman for muslims.

    The number of liberals defending rioting over mere words is startling. It is hard to believe that this is the straw that broke the camel’s back, especially since muslims have been at the forefront of several major protests (many jusitifed) since 2014. More and more fence sitters and moderates are looking at the public calls for “_sar tan se juda_” and will decide they like the idea of their head being attached to the neck.

    If India ends up with a blasphemy law after this it will be in large part thanks to the insistence of liberals and it won’t end well for anyone, least of all muslims. Yes it is true that Nupur Sharma was being uncouth. But if one should expect a comment about the Prophet and a factual statement (if indeed the Hadith is considered to be a serious source for muslims) to invite riots then it is equally true that a thug like Yogi Adithyanath will roll out his bulldozers. After all, it is the liberals who keep telling us that Yogi is an irredeemable fascist.

    1. We shouldn’t give a shit about being called fascists. They are giving cover to islamists by guilt tripping us. We are here to preserve our freedoms, do not call them liberals, call them islam apologists.

      We are not interested in winning arguments while losing our every day freedoms.

      I just saw video of woman who lost her son say she is proud as he fought for islam. Take their children away. No islamist should be allowed to bring up children in hate. State should stop children being radicalised.

  15. Conflicts throw light on the ability of ideas to serve society – so to speak, they provide a sieve that separates the chaff from the wheat – human agency is given a chance to prove its utility.

    I have been scouring the media for evidence of counter-organization to the ongoing fracas. One of the news items that caught my eye –


    Not one of the ideas inspired by the West – Arya Samaj, Liberals, caste abolitionists, democracy-pluggers, constitutional fundamentalists – have done anything on the ground other than to provide endless commentary. Including our own in-house Brown Pundits ICM fanatic 🙂

    In the end, it is a humble jati organization in a small town that is mobilizing people and forming the bulwark to pan-Islam belligerents.

    For reasons like these, I remain ambiguous on jati. Jati is dead, May Jati live long!!

    1. My whole point has been about asabiya, jati does offer some asabiya, but it often works against larger H interest, many of these vote with mamta, dmk, lalu, mulayam, congress. One needs autonomy over schools/ temples to build asabiya along with freedom of speech. Yeah, there is nothing much I can do on the ground. Thats true. I can talk and donate to whom I think can do more, maybe participate in a rally etc if its close by.
      In anycase, the answer is to weaken isalmic “asabiya”. inculcate it with secular ideals and fair critique of their faith. And strengthen H asabiya. ICM is to help build that larger block but it also requires fos and own institutions at at local level including temples, schools, services, ngos. And I take being called ICM fanatic with pride.

      1. @phyecho1

        Appreciate your candor and honesty. But this is about a larger point.

        Someone on Indian Twitter mentioned that this is Modern India’s “Draupadi Moment” – all the nobles and elites and their ideologies are standing around while a woman is bereft in her moment of vulnerability.

        Even Hindutva has strands of jati-opposition built into its psyche from its founders (Savarkar, Deen Dayal etc). What escapes the attention of every Indian ideology (whether imported or homegrown) is the prana (life-force) that animates the institution of Jati.

        Ancient Indians (and medieval) were not irrational beings – jati served some fundamental need that is now shaded to us due to the mediation of the modern industrial society. But from time to time that need reveals itself to us brilliantly in short bursts.

        Taleb remarked , purely from a fat-tail perspective, “….anything that has survived for millennia will surely flourish for another few….”

        1. Yeah taleb said a lot of smart things, but mostly in bringing out rationale for ideas many have held for empirical evidence but never thought out the reasons and brought about concepts from markets to real world. I had a ” skin in the game” view long before taleb, did not call it as such. Lindy is until it isnt. Think about horses in wars. Does not work anymore. As to draupadi, its not the ordinary people, its the people in the sabha. The elites with power looking out. Ordinary people can only do things where they are capable of having long standing (weekly) organizations. Everything comes down to local asabiya. Or you are dependent on the major organisations, bjp/ rss are beneficiary of H helplessness as a consequence of our autonomy/ asabiya gutted down by congress/brits.

          on the idea of the left,

          What has happened in general is that the idea of empathy ate out the idea of fairness among the left. empathy left ate out fairness left. So it has become unhinged. I call this empathy hacking or pathological empathy. or tribal empathy. empathy looks for hierarchy of who is the most ” vulnerable” to fit their criteria to support. Paul bloom wrote an article on how empathy makes people tribal. In trying to stand against the majority, these people empathized with the “minority” to the point that they became tribal like surrogate mothers protecting their wards even when they do wrong. And they invested so much, they cant admit that the rightwing, ambedkar, savarkar were right to question islam. They dont have the intellectual honesty to admit they were wrong. They invested their entire prestige and careers on this. This is turning out like marxist economics. They got it wrong but cant admit it either. But they still have benefactors in west, because the percentage population in west is still small, no skin in the game. They will support fashionable ideas in India to hurt India’s credibility, it leads to division , its good as it weakens India. Keeps India on the leash and stops us also from escaping western orbit like china did. And they cant do it without fifth columnists.

  16. i guess the beginning of the end to Iran being marginalized by US and Western sanctions. The underdogs are revolting.
    Forty-one tons of wood laminate sheeting is on its way from Russia to India. The cargo isn’t newsworthy, but the fact that it’s traveling through Iran absolutely is—potentially marking the opening of a significant new trade corridor that strengthens Iran’s relationship with India…with big geopolitical implications.

    IRNA portrayed the pilot as a partial realization of the long-brewing International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). That 22-year old initiative aspires to link the Caspian Sea to the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf via Iran—connecting major ports and dramatically reducing transit times compared to alternative routes through the Suez Canal, Mediterranean Sea, Atlantic Ocean and North Sea.


    1. I’ve grown skeptical of overblown claims predicting the end of the US Empire and its reach. Russia is still co-operating in Syria with the US by allowing Israel a free hand to bomb civilian Syrian infrastructure, the airport being Israel’s latest target.

      I’ve lost count how many times I’ve read breathless articles on the Iran-India port of Chabahar. Every year we keep hearing about new “breakthroughs” and yet every year not much changes.

      Fact of the matter is that India has become much more submissive to US diktat over the past decade despite becoming a bigger economy. The trendline is really bad. Even on this blog, lots of people are scared of the US empire and keep making excuses for India increasingly being its bitch.

      Yes, there is a slight improvement lately but the longterm trend is bad. Iran is weak and Russia isn’t going to return to USSR glory. Even assuming Russia wins in Ukraine, it will inherit a bombed out country with millions of emigrants in their best years having fled to the West. I was more bullish about China before they trapped themselves in permanent “zero Covid” nonsense.

      IMO, the decline of the West is greatly exaggerated. It’s still by far the most powerful grouping, for better or worse, and will remain so.

      1. I guess the US realizes it needs Russian stuff to stop inflation.

        Not quite sanctions JUST FOR the US. That means others buy Russian stuff thru the US.

        US Treasury allows energy transactions with sanctioned Russian banks. Transactions will be allowed with Vnesheconombank, Otkritie, Sovcombank, Sberbank, VTB, Alfa-Bank, and the Central Bank of Russiatransactions will be allowed with Vnesheconombank, Otkritie, Sovcombank, Sberbank, VTB, Alfa-Bank, and the Central Bank of

        “For the purposes of this general license, the term ‘related to energy’ means the extraction, production, refinement, liquefaction, gasification, regasification, conversion, enrichment, fabrication, transport, or purchase of petroleum,” the statement reads.

        This includes crude oil, lease condensates, unfinished oils, natural gas liquids, petroleum products, natural gas, or other products capable of producing energy, it states.

        Also included in this category is coal, wood, or agricultural products used to manufacture biofuels, or uranium in any form, as well as the development, production, generation, transmission, or exchange of power, through any means, including nuclear, thermal, and renewable energy sources.


      2. The decline of the West, is just like decline of China. Both sides keep on predicating decline of each other, while neither side really ‘declining’.

          1. India won’t grow above 6-7 percent because it’s a democracy. All rich countries became rich before becoming democratic.

            In Subcontinent, Pakistan economy grew much greater when it was under a dictatorship. Currently the best performing economy in the subcontinent is Bangladesh which for all practical purpose a one party state.

      3. This is correct. What many people fail to account is that the West increasingly acts like one political unit. Most of the military policy is already decided at the NATO level. The EU has united the economies of Europe and the Ukrainian war has proved that the European leaders are willing to committ economic suicide for Atlanticism. And this is an Atlantic hegemony rather than an American one. There is no conceivable scenario where an American president could pull American soliders out of Germany and withdraw from NATO. Any so inclined president would also be powerless against Atlanticism. The militaries, diplomatic corps, intelligence agencies, businesses, entertainment and media of US, UK, France, Germany and other Western powers are all more loyal to each other than the countries they claim to represent. More people should study the West as one empire rather than a collection of different but allied countries.

        1. @HJ

          I agree with most of what you say, except one thing. America is the most powerful unit and “Atlanticism” is often a smokescreen for US imperial objectives. Like any empire, the US has to negotiate to some extent with its subjects but at the end of the day, they call the shots.

          The reason why no US president can pull troops out of NATO is because the US deep state understands that a Europe dependent on US security guarantees is an enfeebled Europe and thus in America’s interest.

          Trump’s nonsense about “them taking advantage of us” or “they are freeriders” is laughable to the US elite precisely because they know the real score.

          1. I disagree. National loyalties don’t exist among the Western ruling class. For the average American diplomat, a rural white Evangelical is just as much an enemy(if not more so) as a Russian. Similarly, you will find British, French, German etc. equivalents in their respective countries. These people don’t care about American or British interests. They only care about the “Western, liberal, democratic” interests and this ideology has enemies both outside and inside their respective states. However, they will still use the national identies(Not supporting Ukraine is Anti-American!!) because thats the only way to get the peasants(rural whites) to fight in their militaries. Cleetus is not gonna die for gay parades in Moscow you know.

          2. The West = America. European hegemony over the world has now ended, these things don’t happen over 5-10 years, civilizations decline over 50-200 years.Without US, there is no west. EU does not have a formidable army, most of its countries are over 40 median age, and most of its men of fighting age are immigrants or refugees. It does not have the capability to project power to secure vital energy resources and is fully dependent on Russia and OPEC. This is unlikely to change. So 400 years of European hegemony over the world is now over.

            As for US, US is declining relatively to other world powers, but it will remain a superpower well until the start of the 22nd century, mostly because of its favorable demographics & geography and wealth of the natural resources on the North American continent. However internationally it won’t have the same sway as it once did before. Balance of power is shifting towards Asia, slowly but surely, like it always was for thousands of years.

          3. Doubt power will ever shift to Asia.

            Even before the 400 years of West domination, it was mostly western powers (Greek and Italians) who moved East, rather than the other way round. The West is still united, and East will remain divided. And just one power (China), cannot move the power balance towards Asia.

          4. I hope religion becomes smaller deal in S Asia and it can merge into one nation or at least one large market.

  17. Interesting thread on the contrast between German and Soviet/allied attitudes to tank production. Troubling parallels with German army brass ever changing requirements and excessive focus on having the best with our own army and Air Force guys. In contrast the Soviets focused on producing large number of few models. More importantly the Soviets adapted their strategies and tactics to what they could produce in bulk.

  18. More Pakistani drama. Huge power cuts are now occurring because Pakistan cannot pay Chinese power producers who built power plants under CPEC.

    I suspect Beijing is hardening its line after the new government is widely seen as a US puppet regime. In addition, a series of suicide attacks have targeted Chinese nationals. Beijing seems to be operating under the “there are no coincidences” maxim, and assume that ISI knowledge, if not involvement, was present in the planning of these attacks (perhaps as part of a deal with the US CIA as a pre-condition for rapprochement).

    Regardless, if Pakistan cannot ensure the safety of Chinese nationals in Pakistan and if their new govt is widely seen as being a puppet regime of Washington, why would Beijing be generous? Quid pro quo is the basis of all relationships. And so they aren’t willing to forget the debts owed but have simply shut off power in these plants until Pakistan finds the money. Problem is, Pakistan is broke.

    Meanwhile, the IMF is pressuring Pakistan to re-negotiate these deals with Beijing as a pre-condition for bailout money. Pakistan, which was supposed to be deft and play two sides against each other to maximise advantage for itself, has haphazardly ended up between a rock and a hard place, squeezed by both but helped by neither.

    A central problem here is the weakness of the Ummah. All the major power centers in the world are non-moslem (West, Russia/China). The only one with any potential to challenge is a Hindu nation. For a moslem country, this means playing nice to people who are either indifferent to your plight or perhaps even hostile.

  19. modi’s communication has failed big time. bihari youths are against short term army recruitment (agnipath). the bihar c m , the ever chameleon nitish has not generated any jobs. not sure how yogi is managing on the job front.
    lesser population and more privatisation is the only key as done in south and western india.
    as some one pointed earlier, arts eduction ( b a, m a) needs to be discouraged in north india on a massive scale.

    1. It’s not clear what is anyone protesting against??

      What will happen if Modi Govt mandates conscription for all youths aged 18 and above? That’s essentially forced labour for subsistence wages without pension. Israel does it!

      I see the whole of North India essentially as one large rent seeking mosaic of communities who keep depending on government doles (MSP prices, army pensions, caste reservations etc.)

      1. The funniest thing is people celebrate such retards, Gandhi is on the bank note, people still sing praises of JP.
        Reservation agitations are being done by well off folks like Jats, and Patidars.
        Isn’t TN’s OBC+SC population 97% of the total. Basically they made everyone OBC, so no one is left to agitate for ‘caste reservation’ there.

        1. ‘Isn’t TN’s OBC+SC population 97% of the total. Basically they made everyone OBC, so no one is left to agitate for ‘caste reservation’ there.’

          As i said, contrary to other ethnicities, Hindus in Dravida-land appear as Sundar Pichai on the internet while talking about other states, and Chuchundar in their home state.

          1. I have seen this constant shitting on TN reservation being 97% among RW circles. You would think every household in TN is on the dole. But TN has a very good mix of private sector manufacturing + IT and even decent HDI. Overall TN contributes financially more than it gets back. Might be worth checking what makes it work?
            Quotas might be having the effect that parties don’t have a low hanging fruit of promising reservations to every protesting group. It is a social compact that all “spoils” are going to be distributed as per each group’s numbers.
            One of the reasons why UP/Bihar have not industrialized is that the landed elites (Bhumihar + Yadav) have not faced any real pressure to diversify away from agriculture. They force landless to migrate away to low paying jobs. The tiny employable slice also prefers to also migrate away to better climes/opportunities in private sector. The remaining detritus is like KK and his ilk who populate numerous but useless JNU *Studies departments.
            There is a limit to how much rest of country can absorb the costs emanating from this dysfunctional. My fear is that we might find out this limit sooner rather than later.

          2. “I have seen this constant shitting on TN reservation”

            I was responding to Ugra spewing BS.

            Ugra mentioned ‘caste reservations’ so I mentioned it. I do not defend the indefensible i.e. the poor governance and piss poor quality people of my home state UP and even more Bihar.

            Ugra also mentioned ‘MSP prices’ the agitation for which was fiercest from Jats of Punjab-Haryana. Haryana gets less bang for buck on Central taxes than TN or any other Madraasi state, Punjab not far behind.


            Ugra also quipped ‘army pensions’. Save Telangana all Madraasi states send more Army jawans per capita than Bihar, roughly similar to UP too.

          3. You would never see a Gujjus or Marathi or Haryanavi bitching like Tamils about this ‘burden’.

          4. When your movie stars act as politicians, and drill in this whole ‘we are better than Hindians’ or ‘we would be Switzerland, had not it been for these Biharis’ , and the population lap up like mana, then whole thing starts looking like a burden.

        2. there are many categories in obc reservation. in krnataka, the new struggles are to go to a lower caste clasiffication by the relatively placed upper castes. like a 3c category group asking for a 2a category as the compitation is less there.

          1. @Bhimrao,
            My comment was not specifically directed to you but RW in general. I admit you are generally fair and balanced about the short-comings about UP/Bihar.
            HR recently passed 75% for locals reservation, MH has whole MNS and SS agitation against “Bhaiyyas”.
            Again I want all regions and IN in general to prosper 🙂

        3. Save Telangana all Madraasi states send more Army jawans per capita than Bihar, roughly similar to UP too.
          Interesting info, usually you Bimarus just beat your chests over how your states are the “muscle” of India.

          1. i feel that the riots in secundrabad today is to makeup for the lost opportunity missed last friday.
            surprisingly, major catchment areas for army recruitment such as punjab, haryana, western u p, uttarakand, even maharastra, karnataka and tamilnadu had very less riots.
            something fishy??!!

    2. There is no way to sugar coat any reform. Just like the farmers could see through the farm reforms, similarly army aspirants can see thru this army ‘reforms’.

      The better way to cut down army expenses ( and pensions), is to gradually lower recruitment, or push the army to cut down on imported military hardware. I guess since either of them is not feasible the army high command must have grudgingly accepted Agni path

      1. “Army aspirant”, “UPSC aspirant” – all of these are the fruits of the legacy of Jaiprakash Narayan and his followers (Mulayam, Lalu) – a deindustrialised region with absolutely no other means of employment other than Govt service.

        JP actually studied at Berkeley, Iowa and Wisconsin!! Brought back the message of Karl Marx to UP/Bihar. A tragi-comedy of massive proportions.

        Truly UP/Bihar is a fit case for Peter Turchin’s elite overproduction.

      2. You say as if Bihar and UP were some sort Ruhr belt before 47, which got deindustrialized.

        Plus JP had no impact on the economies of UP/Bihar. The followers of Marx are the folks who elect Marxists to parliament. Bongo-land, Mallu-land and Dravida-land

        1. “The followers of Marx are the folks who elect Marxists to parliament. ”

          New definition of Marxism drops!!

          Laloo and Mulayam were straight through practitioners of Lohia and JP’s philosophies – which at its core – called for total societal revolution (Marxist prescription). At its core they wanted to capture power from existing societal elites.

          Lohia and JP were upper caste men having access to foreign education (JP in the US, Lohia in Germany) and dabbled in abstract modern philosophies without any practical knowledge of electoral craft.

          Mulayam and Lalu were street smart and applied their leaders’ thought in typical efficient fashion to electoral dynamics – in the Gangetic case – tribalism was jati & religion.

          JP and Lohia provided the grand ideas as seeds, Mulayam and Lalu executed them to perfection. Alas, in the original universe of JP & Lohia (both soft Gandhians as well, in addition to soft Marxism), industrialisation had no role to play.

          The decades of 90s and 2000s, when the rest of India was industrializing and urbanizing, Lalu and Mulayam were content with tinkering inter-jati dynamics to remain in power.

          If socialism can be defined as the – apotheosis of total societal control via tribal levers, reduction of innovation to zero-sum games between communities and the elevation of government to an omniscient employment provider – then UP and Bihar are perfect socialist paradises (sarcasm).

          If UP/Bihar achieved at least high HDI numbers like Kerala, there could be grudging admiration for the method in the madness. But there is nothing, literally nothing to show for the last 40 years from JP/Lohia-ite movements.

          I have said again and again, Gangetic folks don’t know how to construct empires any more. Or identify neo-Marxism correctly! Still a long long way to go!

        1. Be grateful even 36 planes were bought. Considering the whole Rafael fiasco, i believe u would wait another 25 years, to buy the next lot.

    1. for American non interference in political affairs is a good deal

      Whores should never expect their demands to be respected,

    1. Selective application of the law to punish protesters is a big red line.

      Right wing ppl should keep in mind this sort of bulldozer demolition was also used against bjp supporter kangana ranaut.

      Basically if you promote lawlessness only a matter of time before it is used against you.

    1. In general, Nepalis don’t like to be associated with India. I call it the litte brother syndrome. Similar to Canada vs USA, Scotland vs England, New Zealand vs Australia.

    2. According to wikipedia about 10% of nepali speakers or 2 million ppl live in India.

      And it is an official language in West Bengal and Sikkim.

      And the contest seems to be in West Bengal, so this NGO person was being disingenuous to deny participation from Indian Gorkhas.

  20. H have spent good part of 2000 yrs breaking themselves into tribes. Tribal mentality is the bane of all these issues. Every reforms goes against one or the other community because they see it exactly as that. Most of Indian reforms would have happened because there would be no visible group to become envious of.

    Envy / jealousy is the root of the problem. H’s should forget this century to lead, this century should be about fusing the divisions within. We shall automatically rise in next one. I cant think of any other place where smart people write endless articles, twitter threads and stupidly say this is about “diversity”. what morons. “uc, brhms” want to take pride in their lineage, look down on others , dont want to intermix and when envy leads to witch hunt, start complaining. Envy cannot be got rid off. You can just keep people under the illusion that if they work hard, they too can succeed, but in order for this to succeed, there should not be visible differences.

    West advanced because they took care of this “WEIRDest people in the world”.China dealt with Iron hand. India allowed envy to drive its politics through democracy. Ugra talks positively of “jati” in one context, in all other ways it hurts, he stays silent. Bihar allowed jatiraj to take over. It led to all smart people and pvt capital to run away, now it is a deadland where no one wants to come invest into anything productive. Depend on govt doles.

    “modi’s communication has failed big time” . By far the funniest encapsulation of H mindset. a bronze age religion, built on tribalism of the period, cant get its head around to the concept of STATE/Governance/Judgement. All H’s, liberal or other wise suffer this disease. They think , its about “arguments, debates, samvaad”. They look at the west and think this to be default reason.

    Nonsense, first comes trust, first comes diminishing the opportunity for envy to rise. I keep saying this many times. There is a physics of society. There is a psychological matrix , psychological states, at the level of individual and in larger groups. It is these things that really make the human world work as it is. capitalism won compared to socialism because incentives offered to individuals was psychologically a better suit to human beings. As E O wilson put it about marxism. “Good ideology. Wrong species.

    There is a causality to human affairs, there is a psychological consequence as a consequence of belief and social systems people live under. These psychological forces add up leading to obstacles to reforms or help in furthering them. Islam also offers a certain psychological consequence, its effects also are clear. The threats offered, international incident of one person quoting something, thank goodness its happening now in modern world with everyone to know and yet it will be forgotten, and we shall be deluded into thinking its about colonialism, minority abuse etc. There is an opportunity cost to beliefs you have. Opportunity cost to social order you support.

    Modi is one man, whose speeches wont change peoples sense of economic opportunity or sense of envy. The idea that Modi, the most popular lead in over 30 yrs, who won 2 majorities in Diverse country like India, that his communication is a problem. Laughable, time to see that problems lie elsewhere . My complain against modi is not on communication, it is about choices . unemployment has been up since 2014, that news has been buried . Most anti modi channels also never talk about it( zero content on actual matters). Manufacturing % as part of gdp is also down, from 16% to 12 % under modi tenure.

  21. consider the idiot https://twitter.com/PankajSaxena84/status/1534386071991353345

    “1. Is Lack of Unity our Problem? Is intermarriage a solution?

    Political Hindus offering inter-caste marriage as only nirvāna to all Hindu problems suffer from amnesia of history and religion. Their diagnosis of an ‘un-united Hindu society’ as the source of our defeat is wrong.”

    13. The problem of Hindus is not thus a ‘lack of unity’. Our problem is that we don’t have a well developed Ṣatrubodha. We are too nice. We don’t hate enough. We have a blurred idea of the ‘other’, the ‘mlechha’. And thus we have a blurred idea of the self. That’s why we lose.”

    15. The ‘solution’ proposed by the political Hindus to solve the ‘lack of unity’ of Hindu society is more dangerous than the problem. They want everyone to necessarily ‘intermarry’. Regardless of how this will be achieved, it is a very evil and doomsday idea.

    16. Idea behind this intermarriage proposal is this: a desire for a completely homogeneous society which has no diversity of life, customs, practices & thoughts. It desires a world so completely devoid of any differences that all art, literature, music and science have to die.

    17. This lifeless leveling of society, this inhuman egalitarianism that is desired thus is inevitable when a completely frictionless society is imagined. All art, literature, music and science comes from our fundamental nature to create something different and new.

    18. All artistic impulse is an impulse to be different. A completely homogeneous society is a completely artless and scienceless society. It is human nature to differ, to create identity and then be territorial about it.

    19. This territoriality cannot be limited to a huge national or supra-national identity. We are biologically not wired to think in such big numbers. We can make sense of small groups like a tribe of a few hundred people. Bigger than that our minds are incapable of comprehending.

    20. That is why the first para-individual identity that we create for territorial sake is the family with just tens of members; then the joint family; then the clan, jati, varna, desha and at the top only and always dharma.

    21. We can make sense of bigger units like a nation or a desha, but only when it is parceled into smaller packets which keep repeating this order until the order of family which is biologically and intuitively graspable to all individuals.

    This is the reality,
    @swati_gs gives empirical ground reality.

    True. Lazy analysts reduce the definition of ‘jaatiwaad’ to ‘discrimination’, arguing that one can have pride in own jaati and not discriminate against other jaatis and problem is solved.
    Actually, it doesn’t work that way. Let me try explaining… https://twitter.com/harshmadhusudan/status/1288938779059744769

    The way jaatiwaad manifests itself is that for most Indians today, their jaati is their social-political identity, indeed their key identity. They may not actively look down upon other jaatis but still have little to do with them in terms of social interaction and relationships +

    Result – only Pasis protest when a Pasi girl is gangraped-videographed by Adil & gang. Let alone Brahmins, even Valmikis or Jaatavs (fellow dalits) don’t join. When a Dhruv Tyagi is murdered by Alam & gang, Tyagis from Delhi & UP hold a Tyagi mahasabha to decide way forward + When a Khyala family is killed by Azad, Kandera Rajputs hold protest and raise fund

    What ‘right-wing’ on Twitter call ‘Muslim on Hindu’ attack manifests as ‘Muslim on Pasi/Nishad/Tyagi’ attack on ground. Dalit groups try in vain to bring hundreds of assorted castes under one +
    dalit’ label even as they refuse even ‘roti-beti sambandh’ among themselves. Jaatiwaad essentially manifests in the mind-boggling compartmentalisation of our society.

    Ground reality shows that this compartmentalisation means that at any given point, the Hindu society is only +as strong as the strongest jaati.
    Unless Hindus’ sense of identity goes beyond jaati, jaatiwaad remains

    If I had power, that person would be in jail and never see the light of the day again. Jail for all those who give flowery justification of jati. Jail for all those who give cover to islamist bigotry of past or deny it.

  22. uc, brhms” want to take pride in their lineage, look down on others , dont want to intermix and when envy leads to witch hunt, start complaining
    Everyone and their mother on earth practices endogamy to secure wealth&status. WASP marry amongst themselves and no one calls them out on it. There’s a solution for this envy problem, Dalits,OBCs&SCs should read up on Advaita Vedanta instead of Marxism and they won’t be bitter anymore.

    West advanced because they took care of this
    They never got rid of it, the Woke idpol racket is quite the envy driven cancer. The Europeans also used Ethno-Nationalism to unite their Nations, we can’t do that. Hindi as National Language was Congress’s scatterbrained attempt at mimicking European Nationalism and we both know how that ended up.

    Unless Hindus’ sense of identity goes beyond jaati, jaatiwaad remains
    It is what it is. You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.

    1. Islam and Christianity also have factions though they have stronger asabiya and stronger definitions of in-group and out-group. It will be good to learn some ways on how these factions are managed by them.
      One broad theme in those cultures is that factional frictions are papered over by the lucre of conquest (ideological/economic/physical). Sadly but quite unsurprisingly that option is never on our menu. Instead we get endless debates maya/illusion, vishwaguru or to get rich first. To get rich, you need to go capture new markets and resource sources. That will trigger people to upskill themselves by literally “learning by doing”.

    2. “Everyone and their mother on earth practices endogamy to secure wealth&status.”

      If you heard about The Book WEIRDest people in the world, you will realize catholic church forced inter marriage leading to less over time. The question is of %age and its consequences on psychology.
      Sure, you go to war with the army you have, but if the army is envious of each other and internally fight, its a losing one. Only 75 yrs since independence and already many are becoming willing fifth column for west and the rest. What drives them is envy, the envy is now reaching out all the way to west as well. As to ” reading advaita”, again laughable. Material differences and kinship differences cannot be papered over simply by doing bhajan.

      Modern types are not using marxism at all. The answer is simple, incentives , both political and quota for ICM. And hierarchy of ICM getting a quota compared to someone who is not. Once one gets to 25% to 40%, all this will end.

      1. Has the WEIRDest hypothesis pertaining to change in the catholic period been tested with samples from the time? If it isn’t upheld with clear change in frequency of gene variables associated with those proposed social changes then it won’t amount to more than a nice (bed time) story. If the test is yet to be done then it’s still a valid hypothesis but not necessarily a grounded fact.

        1. Would be interesting to investigate. But that’s a rather new standard. Before, genomics, all we had was the type of circumstantial evidence presented like WEIRDest hypothesis. Definitely worth looking into.

          But far more has been concluded, historically speaking, about human patterns of behavior, without such genomic hard evidence, than what WEIRDest proposes. Nonetheless, I think if there are concrete means to test such a hypothesis in objective terms, such as the type of genetic study you are suggesting, I am all for it. Makes sense to move up evidentiary goal posts, as tech improves. But we should do that with all hypotheses (I know you never said not to do this but just speaking generally). This is being done with stuff like the Black Death study Razib just tweeted about.

          1. There are already works making those comparison within existing populations. I have of stuff like than being done among modern Britons. Though it is controversial because of the results, one of the authors even talked to Razib, Abdel Abdellaoui is his name.
            This kind of research being extended to medieval and pre-medieval graves can help establish if those Church practices really had an impact. I saw this being suggested in the gnxp comment section over a year ago.

  23. Primary answer to India’s problem. 50 yrs of social engineering. Then resources can be spent as it is spent in all other countries. In a rational manner.

  24. Surprised that BP is not discussing David Reich’s latest talk!

    Steppes is not the Urheimat, only a secondary staging area. He is moving his focus to Anatolia/Armenia.

  25. People have been floating Anatolia/Armenia > steppe for a while. Unless they’ve found some amazing new evidence, I don’t see what the big deal is.

    Current genetic data makes it plausible but unlikely. IE y-chromosomes come from the European side of the unique steppe mix, indicating the European side was culturally dominant. Ergo, the language probably came from the European side. And the linguistic data doesn’t lend any support to Anatolia/Armenia over the steppe hypothesis either.

  26. @Bhimrao

    This topic should interest you.


    The West is finally realising what a land war with a continental power means. Fattened by easy wins over small opponents in the past 3 decades, they started thinking that drones, precision weapons and information warfare can turn a fight.

    The large consignment of drones, anti-tank missiles and others from NATO total less than 10k pieces. Artillery and shells maybe 50k.

    Russian forces are firing an estimated 7k shells into the front ……every single day.

    This is basically WW2 and everyday is demolition day.

    1. @Ugra

      Russians are Russians. They will insist that their initial cost function is non-convex while the west cleverly bogs them down in the minutiae. Russians will say we got land, Americans will mock them for recovering 1% of what they lost in 90s.

      My 6/6 hindsight : Strategically, Russia has completely lost this war against the west, even though it is winning against Ukraine. They have not captured much territory since early April. This is not superpower tier progress, more like India-tier progress.

      Ukrainians will hold the line, as they did in Donetsk and Luhansk.

      1. I think its even worse than India-tier progress. By this time India would have either won the war or lost it decisively.

        1. Don’t you think at best it would be a stalemate like 65 or 71 (western sector). Something like this:
          1) IAF loses twice as many aircrafts. Indian Air Chief makes silly excuses.
          2) PN does not show up to fight and loses 25% ships in harbor.
          3) India ‘takes’ 3000 sqmile of inconsequential desert land without a fight, Pakistan takes 500 sqmile of the same similarly.
          4) Fake gallantry awards and citations galore.
          5) Both Armies (lol) will get ‘betrayed’ by politicians at the negotiation table.

          Against China same shit as 62:
          100 sqkm lost. IA ‘backstabbed’ by the Chinese. Excuses excuses excuses …

          1. @Bhimrao

            A lot of people are blackpilled about Russia’s vulnerability and “battle slowness”. The strategic picture is quite evident – Ukraine is now landlocked (slow asphyxiation), having lost its access to the Black sea and the Mediterranean. Russia makes more oil revenues than it ever did in its history.

            I wonder what your expectation is of a “win” in 125 days. No modern war has ever lasted just 125 days – not even US-Afghan or even Coalition-Iraq!!

            In case you didn’t know already – the Eastern regions of Ukraine where Russia has captured the areas which are the EU’s biggest ore zones of lithium, gallium and titanium.


            The comparison with India’s border wars is off the mark. The mineral hoard alone is worth an extractable 500 b USD over 20 years.

          2. I dont think it will be stalemate. In terms of war itself, Ukraine will come to the table and Russia will extract concessions and land.

            I used to also think the same way u do, that strategically Russia lost the war. But the more time passes, and the more i see other European countries just waiting on the wings for the war to end, so that normal supply (of gas and oil) resume, don’t see what Russians have lost, long term.

          3. @Saurav
            “I don’t think it will be stalemate. In terms of war itself, Ukraine will come to the table and Russia will extract concessions and land.”

            Russia will beat Ukraine and carve meat.

            But Russia has lost to the west i.e., if a half-hearted western operation can bog Russia down. Imagine what the real armies of UK+France can bring to bear. The US can’t even be considered on the same tier.


            “But the more time passes, and the more i see other European countries just waiting on the wings for the war to end, so that normal supply (of gas and oil) resume, don’t see what Russians have lost, long term.”

            Europeans are good at feigning. They will massage Russian egos enough to get what they want, but then fuck Russians in providing things Russians need. Everyone from India, China, Europe, Lat-Am, Africa is actually fine with Russia taking over Ukrainian territory. Everybody except the global-chaudhari Anglo-sphere that has it’s reputation at stake.

            As a commodity exporter not much harm can be done. Commodities are the real $$$. Long term loses will be huge to Russian tech and services industry. Who will build autonomous cars in Russia, who will lease them airplanes, service jobs will be lost … economy will stagnate, people and companies will fall behind others in the world.

            What is China but India 15-20 years into the future?

            Time is Vishnu himself.


          4. ‘Long term loses will be huge to Russian tech and services industry. Who will build autonomous cars in Russia, who will lease them airplanes, service jobs will be lost’

            That’s what i thought as well. But i think once enough time has passed (1~3 years), Corporations will again go back to Russia and their tech industry will also recover. Considering that outside of the anglo-world, but mostly China and India are waiting for war to end, to resume normal diplomatic relations.

            In a world where even Taliban will be rehabilitated one way or the other, its too much to think that Russia will really suffer long term consequences.

      2. Bhai Ukraine still has Odesa. From how things are going I do not think it will fall in any reasonable amount of time (say 1 million.

  27. “Hebephilia is the strong, persistent sexual interest by adults in pubescent children who are in early adolescence, typically ages 11–14.”

    If people want to pedantic, then pedophile is inaccurate. |We can go with hebephilie.


    Good joke about it ^

    While he deserves full punishment, peace be upon R kelly.

  28. Russia is making money because Biden is fucking with MBS. America is losing the mandate of heaven. MBS will win. I used to find American moralizing BS hilarious but this time they have stupidly actually put their money where their mouth is, Biden is not a smart man.


    “500 b USD over 20 years.”

    India produces ~20 billion USD/year from non-fuel (or non-crude idk) mining.

    Unless mineral prices increase dramatically. This is too high.


    Plus this is not free money, much of it will be needed to rebuild and sustain the bombed out ex-Ukraine.

    People are making up numbers from 500-900 million USD/day for Russian war effort. This war business is costly.


    Why are cruise missiles so expensive? No way a small jet powered plane should cost >1 million.


    Bhai Ukraine still has Odesa. From how things are going I do not think it will fall in any reasonable amount of time (say <6 months). Landings, or naval action are impossible.

    1. Odessa is Karachi, but the Black Sea is not the Arabian Sea. The trade route is effectively closed. All arms and aid are now routed overland via Poland. Odessa good for only sunbathing and surfing.

      A mass produced 90 hp petrol engine (average car) costs 5000 USD in the West. Now imagine a gas turbine that is throttle-able and having precise output – not less than 100K. Add the (lack) of economics of scale. Then compute for system qualification.

      Mineral resources are the reason why the Soviet union settled so many Russians in Ukraine in the first place. It is also the reason why Russia had no objection to Latvia or Lithuania joining NATO, inspite of them being closer to Moscow. You are looking at the crown jewel of the Soviet Union.

      Sometimes wars are totally rational to one camp. Which is more important than capability or money. The side that has clarity of purpose has “economy of thought”. It will spend less time justifying itself.

  29. I recently I have been thinking perhaps Hindu Banias as a whole are descended from urban Sramana (jain / buddhist) urban elites who converted to Hinduism rather than Vaishias in vedic sense (who according to oldest sources are cattle pastoralists)

    Here are my reasons, maybe someone (warlock, lurker etc) can poke holes…

    1. Sramana (jain, buddhism) religions seem primarily followed by urban elite starting with the second urbanization and were never mass religions in rural areas that made up the bulk of population.

    2. Many communities of Banias in Gujarat for eg. have documented recent conversions from Jainism to Vaishnava Hinduism (by Vallabhacharya).

    3. Jainism in particular prohibits agriculture as an income source due to inherent “Hinsa” involved. And in a pre-industrial society that leaves limited occupational niches.

    4. Relatively High AASI admix in North Indian Banias can be explained perhaps by greater intermingling in cosmopolitan urban centres and a more relaxed attitude towards caste among Sramans vs Brahminical Hindu elites.

    1. They can’t be direct descendants of ancient Indian urban elite, can they? Cities were population sinks until the 20th century. Studies have also shown that there was mass migration to cities of Roman Empire from the Middle East but they left no genetic impact on modern Europeans. The only predominantly urban community that has survived for the last few thousand years are the Jews, I think. But even their urban population frequently died off and most modern Jews today are descended from the rural poor of Russia rather than the urban population of Western Europe/Mediterranean/Middle East.

      1. I don’t see how cities having negative TFR overall means there can’t be any direct descendants.

        Pretty sure some people from large urban population centre would have some descendants and those descendants would be disproportionately from well to do families with resources to have kids.

        Jews went through massive persecution and a recent holocaust and still survived. Banias, I don’t think ever faced that level of animosity.

  30. Speaking of Banias. An apparent BP reader gets into a discussion with Omar Ali over the recent crisis in Pakistan.

    Claims that the reason why Pak fell behind India & Bangladesh is because Paks view themselves as a “martial race” and look down on what they view as effeminate and weak merchants. This economics thing is simply beneath warriors.

    I’ve read that Pakistani elites held this “martial racial theory” during the 1971 war, which justified the rape and genocide, but does it really exist today? Seems like a far-fetched theory.

    1. https://www.livemint.com/Leisure/5Bpn1tsVkywcxoNgbKkFCN/Pakistan-and-the-art-of-trading-castes.html

      ‘What would India be like without the mercantile castes? I can tell you. Like Pakistan. Four conditions trouble scholars of Pakistan: Military dominance of policy; an economy subservient to national honour; revisionism in Kashmir and an inability to come to terms with an enemy (India) it is unable to defeat; and the inability of society to internally resist religious bigotry.

      Eighty per cent of Pakistan’s army is Punjabi. All the four conditions we observed are Punjab-specific. More Punjabis live in Pakistan than in India. However, in the Forbes list of the world’s billionaires, there are five Indians from the Indian side of undivided Punjab. Malvinder and Shivinder Mohan Singh of Fortis Healthcare, Sunil Mittal of Airtel, Savitri Jindal of Jindal Steel, Brijmohan Lall Munjal of Hero MotoCorp and Gautam Thapar of Avantha. There is no Punjabi from Pakistan. Why? Because the conversion of Hindus has been the conversion of castes, not individuals (for a moment, let us discard the myth Muslims feed themselves about their Arab/Persian/Central Asian origins). All these individuals are from trading communities, Baniya, Khatri and Arora.’

      1. Malik Riaz, Nawaz Sharif, Mian Mansha, etc are all billionaires. There are a bunch of others. For most of Pakistan’s history it was ahead of India economically despite getting the least developed fringes or India. So jury is still out on that. And lastly, the Indian mercantile castes are mostly a successful rent seeking class like most others. And to be frank there was no other way since in a pre capitalist society with no central state, you require militant means to expand and still get to keep all that wealth accumulated.. something that the mercantile castes lacked.

        1. Atif Mian has argued that Pak elites are atypical in that they are uniquely unproductive in their rent-seeking. All elites do rent-seeking, but some also pick sectors that have beneficial spillovers, e.g. Korean elites tended to choose export-oriented sectors. The amount of corruption in the Chaebols is legendary, but it was a form of corruption that made the country richer as a byproduct.
          By contrast, Pak elites tend to focus on unproductive real estate or sugar plantations which are behind huge tariff walls (and so not much external competition).

          Second, I’m not sure if I buy the general idea that the military is the bogeyman in Pakistan. America has consistently spent more on its military than Europe yet can anyone say they’ve suffered economically for it? Israel, until recently, was another example of a highly militarised state.

          If civilian leadership were to gain upper hand completely tomorrow in Pakistan, I suspect the same kind of elite pathologies would remain more or less unchanged.

          If you look at India, there’s plenty of implied corruption with Adani and Ambani, but at least both are outward-looking (even if Australians are unhappy with Adani’s coalmine etc). Ambani ropes in Silicon Valley investors to his ventures. That kind of internationalisation is completely missing in Pakistan.

          1. @principia

            ‘Finance Minister Miftah Ismail said on Wednesday that a Chinese consortium of banks and Pakistan had signed a $2.3 billion (15bn renminbi) loan facility agreement, with cash inflow expected within a “couple of days”.’


            Told you so. Pakistan was not in trouble, it was their regular ‘haay-tauba, allah reham’ . IMF package expected soon too.

            All this ‘rent-seeking’, ‘implied corruption’ bits are exaggerations. In India there is no other way to do business, just try getting a domestic electric connection or a DL. Corruption pays for the democracy in India. How else would election campaigns be funded?

            Banias, especially the Marwari ones, including the ones who were involved in private banking were respected by common folks. Bania hate and caricaturizing is a Punjabi Muslim creation borne of religious-racial hatred and popularized by Bollywood.

  31. https://twitter.com/sairasameerarao/status/1539440716635688962
    Sadly a very common view among young Indian American women in my experience. Not sure how much of this is their genuine opinion vs adopting the the worldview of liberal elite. However, IA’s must understand that its one thing for a White or Black person with centuries of history in this country to say they hate America and another for an IA whose parents came after Bill Clinton to say they hate America. A community that is wealthy, has an outsized influence in politics, but has low patriotism and zero history in the country will face inevitable backlash.

  32. @Bhimrao

    Pakistan was not in trouble, it was their regular ‘haay-tauba, allah reham’ . IMF package expected soon too.

    USDPKR went from 105 four years ago to now hovering at 212. Imagine if the Indian rupee went from 76/USD today to something like 150/USD by 2026. Would you be as sanguine? Everything is not fine.

    As for the IMF deal, it will merely unfreeze the remaining 3 billion. Pakistan wanted to increase the package of aid but the IMF said no. The Chinese loan is just that: a loan. Pakistan hasn’t solved anything, it will continue to get poorer in dollar terms (which is what actually matters, just ask the turks).

    In India there is no other way to do business, just try getting a domestic electric connection or a DL. Corruption pays for the democracy in India. How else would election campaigns be funded?

    Corruption pays for elections in America, too. I don't know why Americans persist in using euphemisms like "campaign contributions" when most of the times it's just bribes when billionaires are doling out cash. They are doing it with an expectation of a return of their investment, despite the pretensions otherwise.

    Yet despite this corruption, America is wealthy. So the issue in Pakistan isn't corruption. It's the way in which elites rent-seek that's the problem, as Mian pointed out.

    Banias, especially the Marwari ones, including the ones who were involved in private banking were respected by common folks. Bania hate and caricaturizing is a Punjabi Muslim creation borne of religious-racial hatred and popularized by Bollywood.

    I’ve read that Hindus were the dominant merchant elite in Lahore and Karachi before partition. Probably fuelled envy.

  33. https://twitter.com/AgentSaffron/status/1539444490246684672

    “Hindus usually think of everything in terms of jati.

    They thought of Sultanate, Mughals, Portuguese, British etc as just another jati with their own customs and traditions.

    That’s why they had poor in group vs out group identity until late.”

    A guy with 40k followers, getting to this basic understanding that many of us knew till now. But this is just a small opening, only when this reverberates many times that one might start noticing the difference.


    “This is true. Even a 18th Kannada text corroborates this. They would wake up once in a while to see the enormity of the difference with some religions. Bhut the tendency was to establish an inter community interface.

    That process simply didn’t work and they often realized late.”

    1. Lets see. Is there any measure by which we can check on this. When do other places go the same path?

      1. Elections wherever free are a good proxy. The Moroccan Islamist party(PJD) lost big in last year’s election. Went from being the governing party with 125/395 seats to now just 13 seats. Hezbollah alliance also lost seats in the Lebanese election. Next year’s Turkish election will also be interesting to watch. Anecdotally, Turks are becoming extremely hostile to Islam. Having you religion tied to inflation rate of 70% has that effect.

        1. islamist parties rarely have won in pakistan. So, I dont consider this good enough. The only real absolute measure I can see is secular criticism of islam as literature being produced and tolerated. Otherwise, people are just choosing the more effective governing side. That does not imply their sympathy with islamist worldview has come down. It could lead to cognitive dissonance though. But I dont see electoral democracy is the best fit to decide things anymore. Congress in India was dominant for 50+ yrs, Bjp now has won and things are different. 2 consecutive victories for trump could have changed things more in USA.

          Its interesting nonetheless. willing to update my views on this. Lets see.

    1. @Prats,

      Most consequential thing in India:
      Vedanta is making a lot of noise about a 28nm IC and a display unit plant with Foxconn. Let us see what happens. Vedanta is so deep in debt, it was never a stellar company, Anil Agarwal has no experience in this. Fingers crossed.


      Air India is ‘considering’ buying 300 narrow bodies. That is a lot of planes. Air India acquires Air Asia(India), merger eminent. Merger with Vistara highly likely. Hope Tatas make a lot of money before the next air-travel recession.

      Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s Akasa airlines to start soon. Indian civil aviation’s biggest names are in it’s leadership team. Good luck to them.

      Delhi RRTS trains about to start testing. The trainsets look like so beautiful 😍. Interestingly the Bombardier’s, made in India, will run on standard gauge (what Indian metros run on).

        1. Delhi-Mumbai will be done. Maybe some section of Delhi Howrah. Let us run it and figure the economics out.

          These lines expensive, given we will have to import everything from signaling to rolling stock idk if it is even worth it at the moment.

          “The cost of Ahmedabad-Mumbai High Speed Rail Project is estimated to be Rs 1,10,000 crore, almost equal to total capital outlay of Indian Railways in 2017. This expenditure for a route which is only 500 odd kilometres in length could become a burden for state exchequer in the years to come.”



          Hard no to subsidized rail. Want Japanese trains, pay Japanese prices.

          IMO Dedicated Freight Corridors are a far better investment.


    2. Draupadi Murmu is our next president.

      IMO Pranab Mukherjee was the best Indian President in our lifetimes. But then he deserved to be the PM.


      1000 dead in Afghanistan earthquake. Om Shanti.

    1. Turkish drones were overhyped because Armenia is a joke of a country. Against a real opponent, they are dropping from the sky like flies.

    2. Drones work well in mountainous terrain of Azerbaijan/Aremia/Afghanistan.. I am not sure if they are as effective on flat plains of Ukraine against advanced air defence systems. The TB2 were actually quite effective in the early stages of the war, and are responsible for the abundance of HD videos of Russians getting blown up..

      1. In the early stages of the war, Russia expected Ukraine to fold like a house of cards. You had BTGs running dozens of km ahead of the main army, completely isolated and unprotected. It doesn’t mean anything.

        Once Russia understood they had to get serious, the drones started to drop like flies. It has nothing to do with mountainous terrain.

  34. Far from an IMF deal being “1-2 days away”, the announcement that Pakistan will now impose a brand-new “supertax” on the richest confirms what many in the opposition were saying: it was mostly smoke and mirrors.

    The IMF still has demands left that Pakistan needs to do. Will the corrupt Pak elite comply or will they flee abroad and take their money with them? Perhaps they can bribe their way out of enforcement.

    Meanwhile, Pakistan lost their third concurrent LNG bid for July, which means that the energy crisis is set to deepen further.

  35. Regarding, the discussion of Pak economy vs Indian economy, the divergence really started only in the late 2000s, although the gap is quite substantial now. As an example, smartphone penetration in India (44%) is double than that in Pakistan (22%).

    I am skeptical of the mercantile castes and military theory. There are many nations without a large trading caste and with a large military who are much richer than India.

    I think Pakistan missed out on a lot of global capital inflows which started in the mid 2000s due to its frontline role in the war on terror. This was ultimately a result of Pakistan’s insecurity vis-a-vis India. Where the Pakistani elite internally got it wrong was the under prioritization of literacy. Pakistan ranks well below its Muslim peers in literacy. This might have to do with the use of Urdu as a medium of instruction in Punjabi mother tongue areas.

    1. ‘I am skeptical of the mercantile castes and military theory. ‘

      Everyone starts off like that. Even i used to be wary of caste theories.

      Then came across Baniyas (who create wealth) and retired fauzis (who are mostly up their ass) and saw reality. Its just like my more-Hindu/less-hindu theory. Everyone takes a bit of time to warm up to it.

        1. The racial religious hatred of the non Hindu Biradri populations is definitely a strong phenomena. .

          They cannot stand a darker, more AASI, and Hindu people working hard and succeeding

        2. ‘I could be wrong but, aren’t Pakistani Faujis wannabe Banias?’

          Even the Banias of Pakistan AKA the lohanas and the Khojas are second grade Banias. Just like the ‘Rajputs’ of Pakistan are second rate Rajputs.

          So when your original banias are not as good as master banias, how can ur fauzi become bania?

  36. Vikram has identified the problem correctly regarding the economy. The war on terror is mostly to blame for the political and economic instability in Pakistan.. The spillover from Afghanistan that resulted in daily terror attacks evaporated avenues of foreign investment from the country and caused export oriented industries to flee and set up shop in India, Bangladesh and Vietnam. I remember that the time in Pakistan between 2001-2007 was that of fast growth and optimism (and no terrorism) but 2008-2016 was marred by one low point after another. While terrorism was mostly defeated, crippling power shortages were patch-fixed by power plants that used expensive imported furnace oil causing one BoP crisis after another that the country is still reeling from today.

    However the literacy rate argument is quite weak. For anyone saying instruction should be in mother tongue which would resolved literacy, one can point towards Sindh to see that this does not solve this problem.. Sindh has both Sindhi and Urdu as official language and medium of instruction, yet Sindh’s relatively higher literacy rate is actually skewed by Urdu speaking migrants that dominate its urban areas and are quite literate. I don’t have the exact stats but I would not be surprised that the rural areas of Sindh (ethnic Sindhis&Baloch) might even have a literacy rate in the 30% which is quite abysmal. Coming onto Punjab, it actually has the highest literacy rate in Pakistan, so one can even argue that that Urdu as language of instruction is directly related to higher literacy rate.

    The language problem is mostly resolved in Pakistan, and both English and Urdu have come out on top at the expense of local languages.

    1. Political and cultural acceptance of Urdu does not imply pedagogical suitability. The fact remains that Pakistan is an outlier in the Muslim world and the greater Middle East when it comes to literacy rate. And this rate has been stagnant for nearly a decade now.

    1. That guy is just an American lackey – a brown sepoy with a white savior complex. I’ve read most of his articles on FP and the vast majority of them sound like they’ve been written by a neocon sitting in Washington. The idea that US Supreme court decisions would affect India is laughable.

      As for Abortion, it’s pretty much a settled issue in India, even hardcore Hindutvavaadis tend not to openly oppose it. India’s abortion laws are more in line with Western EU and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

  37. But it’s a lazy excuse to blame poor literacy on Urdu medium instruction, when all the data points towards the opposite. Education has been neglected, partly due to financial and partly due to cultural reasons, especially for females which explains the poor overall literacy rate.

    Pakistan also defines literacy as being able to read simple text of a newspaper in any langauge so the idea that only Urdu is impeding literacy is untrue when literacy in any language is sufficient.

    Another point is that not all langauges are equal. Some are more developed because they were historically patronized by powerful central authorities. Those languages open up more economic opportunities than others, and none of the local langauges fit that bill. It would actually be economically harmful to try to impose native undeveloped languages on the masses when the masses are more interested in learning economically useful languages.

    1. The Urdu medium use was one hypothesis, propounded by Pakistanis themselves. If thats not it, I am unsure what explains Pakistan’s low and stagnating literacy rates. I checked the education spending as %age of GDP and its not far too off other Muslim countries. Also, that will only beg the question.

  38. Will immigration to the US naturally go down as US appears to have more problems? Probably the best path for immigration restrictionists is to advertise on full blast all the issues of the US. Western MSM is already doing a lot of work in the regards but immigration restrictionists probably could amplify it more.

    1. Will immigration to the US naturally go down as US appears to have more problems?

      No. Life in the US will continue to be much better than in the 3rd world for decades to come. The only reason why the US isn’t getting more migrants is because it has gotten more strict.

      There doesn’t seem to be much momentum towards changing that; ask any Indian in the US waiting for his or her green card.

        1. @Vikram

          The consensus seemed overwhelmingly in favor of 1 cr in India. I think even 10 years ago it hardly made sense for a high earner to move out of India, unless they found technically more interesting work.

          1 crore puts you in the top 0.1% of Indian income earners.
          Tech is a unique island. Ask any Indian doctor if they can get those kinds of salaries. Unless they come from a wealthy family which own their own hospitals/clinic, the short answer is no.

          Even among tech, there’s a difference between mechanical engineers and software engineers. The former are paid much less in India. Most of those responses are only for software engineers, and even then for the most well-paid ones. In other words, a tiny part of the Indian workforce.

          The comparison they are making: is it better to to be top 0.1% in India vs broad middle-class in the US?

          That’s not an apples-to-apples comparison.

          For 99% of Indians, emigrating is still a big uplift compared to what they can get back home. Discount a few percentage points extra for family ties and make it 90% instead. Still an easy deal for the majority.

          Problem with most of these discussions is that many de facto Indian elites still delude themselves they are “middle-class”. They are anything but. So they have completely delusional takes of how most Indians live – including the actual middle-class. Even non-Indians like myself probably know it better because we actually read the income and consumption data from NSSO surveys, whereas many of them apparently don’t.

          1. Oh certainly, the vast majority of Indians would jump at any opportunity to live and work in the US. I am just pointing out that the threshold for staying back in India has been falling. It used to be the scions of business houses that definitely stayed back, now its a high salaried set.

        2. There is some location-inertia as moving yourself to another continent is a big step for most people.

          A fair comparison to go to r/ABCDesis and ask them how much money they would need to make in order to move to India.

        3. “I think even 10 years ago it hardly made sense for a high earner to move out of India, unless they found technically more interesting work”

          Why people move countries is something that’s often not very straight forward as more money or better jobs. An Indian on a 10 cr salary living in a big city has ample job opportunities and no shortage of products in the supermarket aisles. But he will still breathe the same polluted air and walk the same congested streets as everyone else, unlike even a relatively poor chap in a developed Western city. I’ve seen more than a few couples in their mid to late 30s, moneyed after having worked in big companies or starting up move to the UK or other EU countries for precisely this reason – quality of life that just money can’t buy. And when it comes to doctors there is a flood of them waiting to leave, and the UK NHS is more than happy to receive them. Indians doctors (and nurses) are well established parts of the local community even in small towns in Wales or Scotland.

          Even countries much richer than India like Turkey or Bulgaria have trouble holding on to their best and brightest, and even Poland has just about started to see a small fraction of those who emigrated start to move back.

          This isn’t something the Indian govt is going to be able to do anything about for many years to come. But on the bright side, more and more countries are going to queue up to get the best emigrants that India has to offer given that Indian immigrants are just about the highest productive and least troublesome immigrants that one can get and this is something the govt can start to use as a bargaining chip.

  39. So despite loud proclamations from Pak govt that the IMF deal was all but done.. it was not done.

    Today, Pakistan announced new taxes on the salaried class, reversing a brief attempt to bribe the middle-class into docile acceptance. This is different from the newly announced “supertax” on large corporates. There’s also talk about going after NRP (non-resident Pakistanis) and their income.

    Amazingly, the IMF still hasn’t sent Pakistan its Memorandum for Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP), which forms the basis of any agreement. That tells you that Pakistan still had a lot of work to do when they pretended a deal was done.

    The IMF had also rejected Pakistan’s request for a bigger bailout package. Even if we assume a resumption of the previously on-hold bailout programme, it’s still too low for Pakistan’s needs.

    Either Islamabad gets a bigger bailout or it will need to do ever-more drastic austerity cuts, combined with greater depreciation of the currency. This crisis is far from over.

  40. https://nationalinterest.org/feature/america-must-stand-human-rights-india-203189

    “ Later this year, the State Department should designate India as a CPC and sanction individuals directly involved in the anti-Muslim pogroms during Trump’s 2020 visit. Yes, India will be unhappy, but the United States has sanctioned institutions and officials elsewhere in the region—including in Bangladesh and Pakistan—deemed guilty of serious human rights violations. India deserves no exception. And we can afford to press it. With a rising China on its borders, India needs us more than we need them.“

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