Editor Note: as this is still sadly ongoing I've made this top of page.
Overnight, Israel launched unprovoked (according to them “preemptive”) strikes on Iran.ย Troubling times are ahead for the entire Middle Eastern region.
To lay my cards on the table: I am on Iran’s side on this issue. Though Iย am not a fan of the “Islamic Republic”, there is no excuse for this kind of unprovoked attack on an entire country.ย If Israel’s aim was to sabotage the ongoing US-Iran negotiations, it has certainly succeeded in doing so.ย Further, escalation with Iran will distract the international community from the ongoing war crimes occurring in Gaza.
A good resource for further information is this liveblog from The Guardian
I am curious about others’ perspectives on this issue particularly those of X.T.M due to his part-Iranian heritage.
Just pasting some thoughts I had on this from another chat.
This was the most telegraphed attack of recent history.
Why are the Iranians generals dying? Everyone knew this attack was coming, oil was up, Twitter kept banging on about the Pentagon pizza delivery spike.
The whole Iranian story itself is bizarre, why enrich uranium before you have sorted out basic defences and safeguards.
They have no air force (to speak of), no air defences (that are effective), how does it make any logical sense that they have attackable enrichment facilities.
The Israelis have always been threatening this and have struck Iran before w.r.t their nuclear ambitions.
Trying to fit the narrative into a logical framework is just frustrating at this point. We all have our gut reactions but does anyone understand what is really going on?
There is a much cleaner picture on the Israeli side. Syria is now on their side of the ledger, Hezbollah has been severely degraded, the world is moving around to empathizing with the Palestinians. They are confident of the iron dome completely neutralizing any Iranian response. This is a very useful distraction and an excellent time, to use a horrible but apt phrase, “to mow the lawn”.
Yes, Israel has struck Iran before. But if I’m not wrong, this is the largest escalation yet. The problem with a “preemptive” strike is that “preemptive” is subjective. I understand that Israel doesn’t want Iran to develop nuclear weapons but it’s not as if Iran were going to obtain one tomorrow.
The US and Iran were in the middle of negotiating a deal on the nuclear issue. I would imagine the US is not particularly happy that Israel has blown up those negotiations. I have many issues with President Trump but I do agree with him that the US should not be involved in “stupid Middle Eastern” wars. In the event of an Iranian counterattack on Israel, I imagine the US would be forced to defend Israel but Trump certainly doesn’t want bodies coming home to the US draped in American flags.
From Netanyahu’s perspective, this is a good distraction from Gaza. I don’t know that that is worth putting the safety of your own citizens at risk.
I think the Israelis are very confident in their defense. They are basically hitting Iran with impunity. They have tested these defenses before and there have been no unpleasant surprises.
The US Iran negotiation is just a side show. The Iranians have made concessions before and the US, as always with Trump around cannot be expected to honour anything, so it really is a meaningless exercise.
The Iranians have friends, they could have got S400 systems from Russia in exchange for Shaheed drones.
We are missing some info or they are just insane (which I don’t believe).
Some news reports say they have an S400 system. Curiouser and curiouser.
Trump is apparently threatening further attacks. I’ll just quote him directly:
“There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end.
Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE. God Bless You All!”
That’s all we need. Couple of unhinged lunatics with the ability to do exactly what they say ๐
Not the first time that the US has meddled based on a misplaced sense of nonsensical moral posturing without understanding the stakes in the region. They never seem to learn.
They make a deal and then what? Does anyone expect a deal under duress to be honoured?
Trump just keeps trying to milk every situation to aggrandize himself.
He also tends to break his own deals. He renegotiated Nafta to USMCA and then broke USMCA 4 years later.
Yeah Drumpf has zero credibility and there’s no real incentive for anybody on the Iraninan side to even voice consideration for a ‘deal’ internally.
This is …not going to end well.
No fan of the Iran regime, but I just don’t get the “why” for Israel to attack Iran. Pre-emptive strike against what?! Maybe Netanyahu’s just gone completely bonkers.
Their narrative has been the same for many years. If Iran comes close to building a nuclear weapon they will stop it
. It is to pre-empt an Iranian nuclear shield. Nethanyahu has been very consistent on this point, to him it is an existential op. Some 10 years ago he went around the US with a picture of a bomb 80% filled in and a red line saying that they will attack on crossing it.
The Iranians for their part have repeatedly threatened to existentially end Israel without having the power to do so.
Totally irrational behaviour I think. Netanyahu’s extreme positions have not endeared him to the more centrist, sensible Israeli voices and of course the lunatic Iranian mullahs also goading him with empty threats is just such a bad combination.
Just for the sake of argument. Suppose what they say is true, that Iran was days away from assembling a weapon. There was a report a week ago saying that the Iranians had imported enough missile components from China for some 60+ missiles.
The Israeli actions align strongly with this. Now they can bomb an enemy with impunity, delay more and they cannot.
If we take Israel at face value, then yes, it makes sense I suppose given that it’s an existential crisis for them. But, if this threat has been repeated ad nauseam by the Iranians, I wonder how much of it is actually true even if they have imported components from the Chinese.
The Iranian regime seems to be more reliant on guerilla or proxy tactics rather than overt action even w.r.t Israel given the US-Israel bonhomie and the unconditional US support to Israel. However, the bond between the US and Israel has shown signs of fraying. Primarily due to the prolonged Gaza conflict and the pushback by other Western powers on the humanitarian crisis there. This might have encouraged the Iranians to plough forward with their nuclear plans. The deal with Trump is just an ego-booster for him, I’m sure the Iranians know that there’s no certainty with him either way.
the iranians using other’s children thrown into a well to see the depth, as a native saying goes. hamas, hezbolla, houties, etc. are being used while they are safe at a distance. how will any of the general population groups the proxies support this for long?
The Iranians use the proxies because the proxies believe in their duty to fight ” the holy war”. Suits both parties for different reasons. Not unlike the Pakistan army’s use of the Jihadis (other people’s children die, not the foreign raised and educated brats of the Pakistani generals).
To be fair to the Iranians. Not one general was shifted to a reinforced mountain bunker. They all were going about their business completely disregarding personal safety. It does not feel like they even had a designated survivor.
https://x.com/MOSSADil/status/1933436399249731729
Looks like a drone with a directed charge, but look where the target was.
Iranian retaliation seems to be limited to trying to overwhelm Israeli defences by sheer numbers of easily trackable ballistics.
With the enriched uranium and the missile components from China they were probably very close or possibly already assembled a nuclear bomb. It is still quite useless until tested.
Prioritizing this over a robust conventional defence was as much a suicide run as anything.
Just saying the Iranians seem to have been quite prepared to lay down their lives too.
Iranian missiles have hit Tel Aviv. So this looks likely to get worse.
Irans missiles on Israel are going to have a very minimal effect. Israel has very good air raid shelters and a well trained population. There will be some damage, but some minimal loss is acceptable over a nuclear armed Iran.
The only real leverage the Iranians have is on shipping through the straits. While this hurts Europe & Saudis more than America the Iranians will have to play the cards they hold.
That Centcom Generals assessment of Pakistan and the American ‘neutrality’ in the India-Pakistan affair reads quite different with this attack going on doesn’t it.
I would have bet that the CIA would kick off a colour revolution after the active operations cool off. It is not clear with Trump in charge, he seems more willing to let things unfold and use his intel to take credit publicly for minimal effort.
Pentagon pizza index is back to normal -> it means the Americans are confident things are under control. Lets see how reliable an indicator it is. Highly possible that this indicator is now under some cyberwar team by now.
Irans missiles on Israel are going to have a very minimal effect. Israel has very good air raid shelters and a well trained population.
It is more about Israeli morale and psyche.
For yeas they felt safe thinking the Iron Dome would protect them.
Now Iranian and Houthi missiles are proving Israeli confidence wrong.
No airlines are flying into Israel. Disruption of everyday life. Not good for a very small country where tech and tourism is a big.
Another telling factor is that Israel has been selling non Trade able Bonds in the US. Cant have Tradeable bonds noh. Increasing yields in secondary markets means confidence. in Israel is deteriorating.
Even worse is how many many who can get out will leave once Airlines start operating. Specially Educated skilled, Israelis have no visa problems for the US and Europe. Many dual citizens
Israel Bonds is affiliated with Israelโs finance ministry and sells bonds inside the US to both retail and institutional investors. The starting price for non-tradable retail Israeli bonds is as low as $36.
I have no idea of the face value of the $36 bonds
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-has-sold-record-amount-debt-us-war-gaza-erupted-report
yes reads quite different. Suddenly the inexplicable ‘nice’ rhetoric towards PakMil starts to make sense. With Iran ‘in play’, PakMil’s rentability becomes a useful piece on the ‘gameboard’ for the US.
You know how some point to the so-called ‘resource curse’ for some African states’ perpetual poverty? Pakistan has the ‘geostrategic curse’. Time and again, PakMil’s self-inflicted stupidity take them to brinks where it would potentially trigger emancipation for the enslaved awaam only for their ‘geostrategic’ location to become relevant and invite temporary ‘bailouts’. Whether its the USSR invading Afghanistan, or Dubya’s War on terror, to Chinese propping them up against India, to now this.
Exactly right. Which is why I’m sceptical of Israeli motives. As far as the utter disregard of the Iranians for their own personal safety, no idea why. It just doesn’t add up logically.
the iranians using otherโs children thrown into a well to see the depth, as a native saying goes. hamas, hezbolla, houties, etc. are being used
No different from the US (and the EU) using proxies to fight their wars.
The most recent example being Ukraine
Very true. Mercenary states.
‘gunner’s shot’ episode by gen.shankar is interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKVYqZjerPs
https://thewire.in/world/israels-attack-of-iran-brings-west-asia-at-the-edge-of-armageddon
by Talmiz Ahmad, India’s former ambassador to Oman, the UAE and Saudi Arabia
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/inside-the-j-35-deal-implications-for-regional-air-power/vi-AA1Gzi85?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=20ace96be7684dc5b42b1a8820ef2645&ei=20
It’s about Pakistan and I will write on Iran sometime soon; the situation makes me a little bit anxious as it stands.. but it’s interesting multi-polarity is dawning one way or another
now I know why I posted this here and broke my own rule on Indo-Pak. Israel doing the same thing as India; I just kept going back to Indo-Pak conflict a. month earlier. it just feels so similar
The three situations: Israel-Hamas, Israel-Iran and Indian-Pakistan are very different. I was actually thinking of jotting my thoughts on the nuances in each situation and how the morality of each adversary guided with their civilizational ethos ( like Dharma in India’s case) impacts strategy and dialing tensions up and down.
definite parallels, and the Indian ‘escalations’ seem quite restrained and limited especially in comparison to Israel’s bold ‘decapitation’ strikes.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/06/13/israel-iran-regime-attack-goal-column-00405153
This analysis argues that Israel’s real goal may well be regime change.
On another note, I find the West’s insistence that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons quite hypocritical. If Israel can have them, why can’t Iran? If Iran had had nuclear weapons, there’s no way Israel would have been able to carry out these strikes. I’m coming around to the view that nuclear weapons are an essential deterrent for countries to protect their sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Just wishful thinking on the regime change. If the Israelis can genocide their way through Gaza and effect a regime change in Iran at the same time…. the brain boggles.
Should every country have nuclear weapons or only “responsible” countries. What happens to the weapons when the regime uses them as a survival prop against external intervention while brutalizing/controlling their own population internally?
Are you happy with North Korea having nuclear weapons? They keep lobbing missiles into the sea of Japan and have kidnapped Japanese from surrounding islands in the past. Pretty much been a bad actor at home and abroad. What happens when an even worse actor gets hold of them? Kim, I have some sympathy for really, his personal survival was tied into keeping the regime going at every point.
To X.T.M how is Israel doing the same thing as India? India’s attack on Pakistan was limited only to the LET and JEM training camps. I think we should keep things separate, I don’t think many Indians would like to associate themselves with this attack in any way. Iran has always been a very long term ally.
Ideally, no country should have nuclear weapons. But if your adversary has them and you don’t, that causes a whole another set of problems. Mostly, I was just commenting on the West’s hypocrisy. Israel has nukes but since most Western governments are (still) sympathetic to Israel, their nukes are considered OK. Iran is an ideological enemy of the West and therefore can’t have nukes.
On the India-Israel comparison: I agree the scale is very different. India didn’t attack Islamabad. Israel attacked Tehran. But India did kill Pakistani women and children. They must have known that that was likely when they bombed mosques and homes.
Also, a lot of Indians (particularly on the Hindu Right) are inspired by Israel. This idea of “mowing the lawn” is an Israeli idea which some Indian hawks now want to apply to Pakistan. But of course, Pakistan has nuclear weapons. If we didn’t and India did, I don’t see why it would be impossible for an Indian leader to decide to bomb Islamabad or Lahore. Why not assassinate Pakistani military officials just as Israel can assassinate Iranian Revolutionary Guard officials?
The hypocrisy of the West is well known. Most Indians (including me) are fond of Persia and by extension the Persians; not of the theocratic Iranian regime of course.
In my opinion, the nuances in each conflict are very distinct, perhaps not as obvious; but clearly distinguishable. It is not black and white. So, your extrapolating Israel’s strategy to India doing the same to Pakistan is not entirely valid, in my opinion primarily because Pakistan is not an existential threat to India, China is. Israel sees Iran as an existential threat despite not sharing a land border and vice-versa.
Of course the nuances in each conflict are different. My point was only that nuclear weapons are unfortunately needed as a deterrent. If India is Pakistan’s “eternal enemy” or whatever and that “eternal enemy” has nukes than Pakistan needed them as well.
Some Indian national security hawks have spoken about assassinating DGISI for example. So I believe that If India were capable of doing to Pakistan what Israel is doing to Iran, it is not an impossibility that it would do so.
I don’t think most Indians or even the Indian establishment thinks of Pak as ‘eternal enemy’. Eternal nuisance more like it. Now I understand this blunt comment has the potential to ‘trigger’ you, so am clarifying – that is most certainly, not the intent. Its a genuine opinion.
I meant that Pakistan considers India its “enemy”.
Indian rhetoric about Pakistan and Pakistanis is often very vicious. Of course this doesn’t apply to all Indians but there is enough talk about dismembering the country etc.
I donโt think India-Pak has the deadly edge that Israel – Iran has ..
Perhaps the Indian establishment is saner and more risk-averse than the Israeli establishment. Israel seems to think it can get away with assassinations on foreign soil. If India thought it could get away with assassinating Pakistani military officers, it might try it. Hawks on Indian TV have actually suggested assassinating DG ISI.
Also, Pakistan is a nuclear state so India obviously cannot do what Israel can when it is dealing with non-nuclear states.
I mean, we can all keep putting out what each others crazy people said. Here is your defence minister claiming control over IPL stadium lights and Indian dam gates.
https://x.com/MeghUpdates/status/1933814715957854508
Stick to what is stated policy and action with the govt (you can reasonably speculate on the covert stuff). The Iranians are very clear, the Israelis are very clear, the Indian govt is very clear. There isn’t any need to conflate people incentivized to generate maximum reaction with actual govt intent.
Some of these Indian hawks are ex-military. So I’m not sure that they can be easily dismissed as “crazy”.
My limited point is that–for whatever reason– India is more risk-averse than Israel. I don’t think that the Indian government would be above doing morally dubious things like assassinations if it thought the consequences would be manageable. The same thing applies to the Pakistanis. Why not take out Modi if we could?
I mean you understand TRP and ratings right. Anyone on TV survives by playing up the most sensational aspects of everything. If an Indian channel has to choose between a sensible military analyst and the screaming banshee they go for the handlebar moustached mouth frother everytime. Who is your defence minister selling his story to? He doesn’t even need to win an election fairly.
The assassinations linked to the Indian govt have all been directly connected to terror related acts in India (people who India considers terrorists and there is a high bar for this). They have faced consequences with Canada and US for the same. What they have not done is targeted govt or military personnel.
I find it annoying that you link India with Israel. We have always been keenly non-aligned, non-partisan and non aggressive as far as possible. Every single war Pakistan has struck first whether overtly or covertly. The 1971 strike on Indian airbases by Pakistan “operation Chengiz Khan” was modelled after Israels “operation focus” of the six day war.
Try to read that diplomatic divide book. It has a lot of details of Pakistani aggression towards diplomats which only stopped when the Indians reciprocated. Note the book has stories from both sides but there is a clear difference.
Sorry to annoy you. I only “link India with Israel” because so many Indians seem to want to follow the Israel model when it comes to Pakistan. The whole concept of India “mowing the lawn” with respect to Pakistan comes from the Israeli policy of “mowing the lawn” with respect to Gaza. It’s a different matter that Gaza cannot really fight back, neither having an army nor an air force. Pakistan obviously can fight back and will never allow India to “mow the lawn”.
Whether you like it or not, a lot of Indians love Israel primarily because both Indians and Israelis hate Muslims. This doesn’t apply to all Indians obviously but there are enough of them that exhibit this behavior.
I’ll leave this conversation here.
Believe me there is a lot of sympathy for Iran in India.
Look at the cartoon in any national paper.
You’re fixated on one expression you heard on an interview with some military analyst ignoring 78 years of actual history. There have been no strikes in Pakistan without an attack first in India. The ‘mow the lawn’ has never happened.
Yes online forums are full of Israeli fanboys, it gets the maximum reaction from Pakistanis/muslims and that thrills both the troll and the algorithm.
I’m going to leave it too, use your own judgement.
I think Israelis would also have argued that there were no strikes in Gaza without an attack first on Israel. So you can perhaps forgive me when I don’t find this a good argument.
However, the point remains that India is not strong enough to do to Pakistan what Israel does to Gaza. Israel is now learning that Iran is a much tougher enemy than the Palestinians.
Unfortunately, this reinforces my sentiment that nuclear arms are a necessary deterrent. One shudders to imagine what a nuclear India would think of doing to a non-nuclear Pakistan.
I think nuance is missing here. No, Indians don’t support Israel because they hate Muslims. That is an erroneous generalization. I think India sees Israel as a reliable partner, the Western mercenary states (including the US) be damned. That is why Indians support Israel. A majority of Indians today would be put off by the way Israel has gone about in Gaza and of course Iran. Optics especially vis-a-vis Iran look bad.
In fact, I’ll point out another seemingly sidelined point. Shias are 10% of the Muslim world and Iran is Shia vs a predominantly Sunni Pakistan. If anything, it’s in India’s best interest geopolitically to be supportive of Iran. That combined with our civilizational links to Persia ensure that the Iran-India-Israel triangulation is a lot more complicated and nuanced than a simple religion based binary.
I’m sure there are a lot of reasons for the Indian government to support Israel. That said, a lot of Indians on social media seem to support Israel just due to a shared antipathy to Islam.
On the Shia Sunni thing: You do realize that up to 20% of Pakistani Muslims are Shia? Benazir Bhutto was (apparently) Shia. President Zardari is Shia. There are many Pakistani pilgrims in Iran right now whom the Pakistan government is trying to bring back to the country.
I was only making the point to not see everything through a religion binary. Its far more complicated than that.
Besides, even if Shias constitute 20% of Pakistan, they have still been declared apostates; the punishment for which is death. Not unlike the poor Hazaras of Afghanistan.
Shias have not been declared apostates. I don’t know where you got that from. Many of us are from mixed Sunni-Shia families. Many extremely prominent Pakistanis are Shia. Quaid-e-Azam himself was Shia. The Bhutto and Zardari families are (at least supposedly) Shia.
According to estimates, there are about 46 million Shia in Pakistan. This is the biggest Shia population outside of Iran.
Jinnah from what I know at least was a Khoja Shia earlier in life but became a Sunni Muslim later in life.
Its been in the news actually over the last 4-5 years on the Shias been declared apostates along with of course the Ahmadis. Maybe not a state policy, but sectarian violence against the Shia community does exist.
https://www.ecoi.net/en/document/2025210.html
There is a controversy about the Quaid. He was given an official Sunni funeral by the State but a private Shia family funeral. After his death, Fatima Jinnah asked the court to execute his will under Shia law. I will concede that even in 1948, the founder of a Sunni majority state could not be publicly seen to be Shia.
There is sectarian violence against Shia. But they are by no means apostates. The Pakistani state considers them to be Muslim. Ashura (9th and 10th Muharram) is an official holiday in Pakistan.
Ahmedis are officially a non-Muslim minority. The argument for this is that they consider Mirza Ghulam Ahmed to be a prophet. According to mainstream Islam (both Sunni and Shia) there can be no prophets after the Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him).
That is enlightening. I was unaware of the details regarding Jinnah’s public and private funerals. Thank you.
you are so willing to be nuanced when it comes to discussion of Pakistani…. ‘warts’. And yet are quite quick to resort to broad brush generalizations in how you view the other. Perhaps ponder on that a bit?
Indians see a lot to admire with Israel – a state that in spite of size and population limitations has “stood up against” terrorism and that too quite effectively – in stark contrast to 2 decades of the Indian government ‘impotently’ sending diplomatic protest notes in response to Indians being murdered.
To categorize Indian support of Israel to “antipathy to Islam” is not only inaccurate, its…soft bigotry.
You cannot deny that there are a lot of Indians on social media who suck up to Israelis in a very embarrassing way. Much of this behavior has to do with the fact that they perceive Islam as a common enemy.
You are free to admire Israel’s behavior if you so wish. However, the consequence of that behavior is that in many parts of the world Israel is considered a pariah state (and this is not all due to antisemitism). India has historically behaved in a responsible and rational manner even in the face of provocation. Emulating Israel is not a good look.
At the risk of provoking you, I will just point out again that Pakistan is not Palestine. It’s a nuclear state. India will not get away with “mowing the lawn” if this is the strategy it chooses to apply to Pakistan.
I think Israel and India sort of took leaves from each other’s books
India ‘wishes’ to take leaves from the Israeli playbooks. But the ground reality is that it really.. can’t.
you can read my latest piece and comment on that ๐
I read it, agree with some portions of it.
Ok
I don’t get ‘provoked’ that easily. ๐
Besides, its obvious that Pak is not Palestine. In fact, Israel’s policy clearly is to prevent the formation of a viable Palestine state, howsoever tiny. Because it doesn’t want a “Pakistan” on its borders.
“I” do not admire Israel. I think its an apartheid state and an occupying state.
By the way, define “getting away”. I mean, if India can bomb terrorist HQs in Pakjabi hearland, bomb Pakistani airbases across the length and breath of Pakistani territory, without much cost. Did it not, in fact, ‘get away’?
I can understand why a phrase like “mow the lawn” would be triggering. But the facts and satellite images do speak for themselves. All that Pakistan could manage was smoke massive amounts of copium in the name of a couple of flying machines.
Edit:
p.s. There are hundreds of millions of Indians on “social media”. If you chose to extrapolate from random anecdotes of “Indians on social media”, you are only cherrypicking ‘evidence’ that supports your confimration biases. But hey, the interwebs are free. Whatever floats your boat.
Pakjab?
its a portmantaeu of Pakistan Punjabi…
Yes an odd one
The point is that Pakistan will respond. This current round ended in four days thanks to Donald Trump. If India does this again, Pakistan will most likely escalate our own actions too.
The power differential between the Indian and Pakistani militaries is much less than that between Israel and Iran.
Trump is threatening to intervene?
Trump seems to be cheering on Israel. Iran wants a ceasefire but Israel has indicated that their operations are not yet over. Israel is still talking about assassinating the Supreme Leader.
Shia vs a predominantly Sunni Pakistan. If anything, itโs in Indiaโs best interest geopolitically to be supportive of Iran.
If you look at Literature, Sciences, Philosophy, most of that in the Islamic world has come Persia/Iran
Yes, of course. The Islamic World rode on the coat tails of the Ancient Persians and their contributions just like the Western World rode on the coat tails of the Ancient Greeks and Romans!
tails of the Ancient Persians
Modern Iranians who became Islamic
eg Omar Khayam
I think he was sceptical of religion in general. The Rubaiyat is quite a read.
Let’s not get into the whole India Pakistan thing again, we will keep rehashing the same points, civilians/terrorists etc, etc.
On the Iran Israel fight I don’t think there is a clear side taken by the Indian govt or Indian populace. Sure there are people who are attracted to Israeli military dominance and who consider Islam to be the enemy, they will be a vocal nuisance on twitter. It is also difficult to voice support felt for the Iranian people given the hard orthodox oppressive nature of their govt.
Btw back in college one of my juniors used to go to RSS meetings, he said (to my surprise) that they spoke about countries like Iran who India should have good relations with. (The unreliable US frenemy or oil security I suppose).
On nuclear weapons and Pakistan, you might feel secure and happy about them now but if you had them in 1971 the Bangladesh situation would have been incredibly different.
We all wish no one can have them but that genie cannot be corked, so the best bet is responsible people have them. For all Israels faults you never hear anyone even mentioning that they have them, it’s just understood to be so and the general perception is that they are a last gasp deterrent.
If Pakistan had had nuclear weapons in 1971, there would be no Bangladesh today. India would not have dared to break a nuclear armed country into two. Those weapons are what is keeping India from breaking today’s Pakistan into pieces (which some of your hawks do advocate).
Israel is the only country in the Middle East that refuses to sign the Non Proliferation Treaty.
Sure. But do you think the world would be a better place without Indian intervention in the Bangladesh war? I don’t really want to rehash 1971 really but I didn’t think this was in dispute.
The Non Proliferation Treaty is just a western sweetened pill you can choose to take at your own risk. Japan needs nukes but considers them so abominable that they have hitched their defence onto the unreliable American wagon which abuses the relationship.
India has nukes because of China (1962 is considered by Indians a horrible betrayal of genuine efforts by Nehru to be on the best of terms), Pakistan has nukes because of India and 1971. Israel has nukes because of everyone around it.
I don’t like the idea of a Nuclear Iran with this govt. Given how cavalier the top leadership was with their lives and rhetoric it does not bode well for them to be entrusted with earth shattering weapons.
The Israelis have proven themselves unfit to rule Gaza and the West bank but that is a separate issue, in this instance their denuclearization goal seems rational to me (IF the Iranians were on the verge).
I am fine with Bangladesh existing as a sovereign nation. I believe most Pakistanis share this point of view. However, the fact that it was India–which in our minds is our “eternal enemy”– that broke Pakistan into two remains a sore spot for us. If Pakistan had succeeded in taking Kashmir from India, I doubt Indians would have forgotten about it even 50 years later. Nuclear weapons are a deterrent to make sure that we will never lose another inch of our territory.
Israel has been saying that Iran is on the verge of developing a bomb for over three decades. Someone on Twitter posted a picture of an NYT article from 1995 which made this claim. What’s different now?
The publicly available news is that they had enriched enough uranium and had purchased missile components from china.
I admit my logic around this is partially circular too. Because Israel attacked, the Iranians must have been on the verge or almost actually have an untested bomb. Given that they announced their intent for 30 years it’s not as if Iran hasn’t had fair warning.
Look at it from the Israeli side (I know it’s a big ask, but try), they are a small country, the moment TelAviv is hit with a nuclear bomb which obliterates a large portion of their population the surrounding Arab states under their hegemony will immediately turn around and attack to completely annihilate them. They cannot recover from a single successful strike, every Jew in the middle east is dead.
America is unreliable, the Jewish lobby is very strong, but the subcurrent of anti-semitism is too.
On the other hand their current attack on Iran seems pretty targeted so far and will only weaken the Theocracy, maybe not now, but after things have died down there is a much better chance of overthrowing Khamenei.
I don’t think any country would actually use a nuclear bomb against Israel. No one is that irrational.
It doesn’t make sense to attack Iran at this time. Unless Israel’s goal was to sabotage any chance of a US-Iran deal. In that, it has succeeded spectacularly. Not to mention that the international community is now completely distracted from Gaza.
Ok I guess I can leave this discussion here.
The Iranian top brass has just shown you how irrational they can be. Years of Mossad killing them, the week before the israeli strike the Americans move their people out of the embassies, wsj quoting Israeli officials as saying that a strike would come by Sunday and except the air force every Iranian general was killed at his publicly known home. (Supposedly they thought it was a US pressure tactic for the negotiations)
We have seen about 30 years of major suicide bombings since 9-11, none of it has achieved anything positive, it’s all highly irrational behaviour.
What happens in Iran if there is a revolution the Generals are finding very hard to put down, they are losing control and fear that they will be hanged publicly in the next few days. The moment they nuke the Israelis everyone gets distracted into killing the Jews. It would even be the most rational move for them.
Anyway, I’ve explained the situation to myself as best as I could. I don’t know if it has helped you but writing this out has left me easier in mind. My first reaction to the Israeli strikes was instinctive outrage.
but the fact remains that Pakistan did indeed “take” part of Kashmir from India. Post accession. Why are you overlooking this historical fact? And in spite of this, there is a 50+ year historical track record of India offering Pakistan to ‘solve’ Kashmir by converting LoC to Border.
This is the sort of dishonest blind spot that continues to afflict Pakistanis. Even the self-professed ones on the “left”.
You are making my point for me. India has never gotten over the fact that Azad Kashmir and G-B are with Pakistan. Indian maps to this day show all of Kashmir as Indian territory which is just ridiculous considering that the internationally accepted map of India looks different. So why should you be surprised that even more than 5 decades after 1971, Pakistanis still deeply resent that it was India that broke Pakistan?
Kashmir is a Disputed Territory while East Pakistan was unequivocally part of Pakistan.
i feel pakistan should use their nuclear weapon once. as of now, india will not be deterred of attacking pakistan as they have no fear of the pakistani n bomb.
God forbid any country actually uses their nuclear weapons. The whole point of them is to act as a deterrent, not to actually be used.
I don’t think nukes would have allowed West Pakistan to get away with an actual genocide. You think Bengalis would have just rolled over and continue to die by the millions?
Very unrealistic.
๐ in alternative history, everyone is allowed their fantasies.
There would have been a civil war. Perhaps a long-running insurgency. But West Pakistan would have managed it. The Indian victory in the war is what allowed Bangladesh to be created.
Iranโs strike on The Kirya, Israelโs Pentagon, brings the Middle East to a boil; importance of IDF headquarters explained
https://web.facebook.com/reel/1898214630970547
Trump Rejects Netanyahu’s Request To Join War, As Israel Needs Large US Bunker Buster Bombs
Netanyahu getting more than he expected and wants big brother to join him. Good for Trump, allow Israel to take hits and that might cool Netanyahus hot head.
Unconfirmed reports say a hypersonic missile struck Israel’s north…
Axios underscores that “Israel lacks the bunker buster bombs and large bomber aircraft needed to destroy Iran’s Fordow uranium enrichment site, which is built into a mountain and deep underground. The U.S. has both within flying distance of Iran.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-proclaims-total-air-superiority-over-iranian-capital-area-war-intensifies
Iโm reserving opinion on this conflict as I find it equally dangerous as Indo-Pak.
I also saw Russia-Ukraine as a fairly localised affair but these conflicts (nuclear with IndoPak/ oil with Iran-Israel has serious ramifications)
I think Iran would not be irrational enough to attack US assets in the region. That would bring the might of the US military down on it. Right now, it is only defending itself against Israel.
An Israeli analyst told Al Jazeera that he doesn’t personally understand Netanyahu’s endgame since without the US entering the war Israel cannot cause regime change in Iran. Neither can it completely destroy Iran’s nuclear program–only set it back by some months. Perhaps this serves Netanyahu as a distraction from Gaza.
Apparently, Israel has a plan to assassinate the Supreme Leader but Trump has vetoed it.
as this is an ongoing conflict; I’ll make this Open Thread sticky for now? Front of page?
I’ve sorted all the formatting on all the posts thus far (thank you Kabir & Nivedita) but I’ve decided I’ll hold off on posting for a little bit. it’s a very stressful situation and just recovering from the Indo-Pak encounter
X.T.M: I have a friend who I think would be a good writer for BP. His name is Manav Kapur. He’s from Delhi and just recently completed his Ph.D in History from Princeton. His dissertation is titled “Bounding Nations, Making Citizens: Partition, Property and Citizenship in Postcolonial South Asia (1947-1965)”. I think it would be good to have a more left-leaning Indian perspective on this forum.
Here he is speaking about India’s Citizenship Amendment Act
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jB3WgF2n3UU
sure bring him in
I told him to email you.
Ok great – he can WhatsApp me as well ..
Oh God, not the CAA. Another crazy round of tu tu main main is sure to start.
I think academic discussions of sensitive topics is helpful?
Yes indeed, I do agree with you; if it does not get into mudslinging and trigger the verbal version of a street fight…
agreed-
agreed- high signal low noise
There is such a thing as too much academia. Due respect but the ivory tower problem is very real too.
Not arguing against including this friend of Kabir’s but that video doesn’t do him any favours, I had to use a youtube transcripter and even then it was borderline unreadable.
Brown Pundits is a broad church..
๐ Beware of greeks bearing gifts.
And what does a Pastor do if he doesn’t like his congregation?