Israel, India, and the Rise of Defensive Asymmetry

A Pause in the Offensive:

Without getting into the ideological or emotional dimensions of current conflicts, one point stands out: both Israel and India seem quietly surprised by the defensive resilience of their adversaries.

Whether it’s Iran-Israel, India-Pakistan, or even Russia-Ukraine, a pattern is emerging: offensive campaigns that assumed rapid success are stalling against increasingly capable—and surprisingly tenacious—defensive postures.

In classic military doctrine, a successful offense requires a 3:1 superiority. That logic appears to be inverting. What we may be witnessing is a shift in the scientific and technological balance—not just in weaponry, but in surveillance, cyber, and even psychological endurance as evidenced by the Iranians on national television in this clip, IMG_0631.

Ukraine was never the center

The Russia–Ukraine war was always cast in the West as the defining global struggle—but for many outside the transatlantic echo chamber, it never quite felt central. Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia are historically and culturally entangled. The Western response externalized what was, to many, a deeply internal rupture. Gas prices, sanctions, and narratives took over. But the war itself became one of attrition, not overthrow.

Russia has endured. And it is—slowly, methodically—winning its war of time.

Israel and India face a different kind of resistance

For Israel, the current confrontation with Iran (and the broader axis involving Hezbollah, Syria, and Yemen) is not just about Gaza or hostages. The state is internally divided—Netanyahu’s support is questionable, and the Israeli public seems weary after months of war and years of constitutional crisis. The hostage crisis, layered on top of judicial unrest, only deepens the uncertainty.

Meanwhile, Iran—despite its internal discontent—has no domestic public opposition to nuclear ambition (I will write on the Pahlavi restoration soon enough). Its deterrent logic is internalized.

For India, the pattern is familiar. Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent continues to impose strategic limits. And while India may be more stable and confident on paper, it still faces an adversary that hasn’t collapsed under pressure—militarily, diplomatically, or economically.

A hegemon out of sync

All this takes place in the shadow of a global hegemon—the United States—that increasingly appears out of sequence with events, reactive rather than anticipatory. The Trump-era restraint on attacking Iran remains a puzzle. What is clear is that regional conflicts now outpace global strategies.

The big shift

What’s emerging is a new defensive asymmetry:

•Not just missile shields, but information shields.

•Not just cyber defense, but narrative resilience.

•Not just terrain, but legitimacy.

Wars are being fought to a draw, not because attackers are weak, but because defenders have adapted. And that may be the real shift.

Addendum: Eyes on China (& India’s Balancing Act)

While these entanglements stretch across the Middle East and South Asia, the strategic constant for me remains China and Taiwan. In every proxy war—Ukraine, Gaza, even the Indian subcontinent—Beijing is watching. Carefully. Patiently.

There is a growing sense of imperial overreach. The West, long the steward of the so-called “rules-based international order,” now finds itself stretched thin—reactive, inconsistent, and no longer credibly standing by the very system it once championed. The Global South is noticing. The rhetoric of hypocrisy is no longer confined to editorial pages; it’s becoming geopolitical currency.

India, in particular, faces a complex challenge. It maintains deep economic ties with Iran and simultaneously enjoys robust military cooperation with Israel. With tensions escalating, it finds itself strategically entangled. Recent diplomatic signals—such as India’s statement at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization—hint at a quiet recalibration. But with two of its key partners now in open conflict, New Delhi may soon find that strategic ambiguity is no longer sustainable.