How effective are the “Double Engine” sarkars? Not much…

Since BJP captured power in the centre in 2014 with a stunning majority, the party has made a concerted attempt to deepen its dominance by making strong bids for power in the states. And it has worked extremely well for the party. It has captured power in states which were virgin territories for the party (Haryana, Assam), has staged an impressive bounceback in UP after more than a decade of political wilderness (or vanavas, if you will), has moved from being the junior partner to becoming the dominant party in the highly critical state of Maharashtra (the largest economy in the country) and formed its first single party government in the South (Karnataka).

A common feature of the party’s state election campaign has been the appeal of the “double engine” sarkar, a not-so-subtle message to the electorate that a BJP/NDA government in the state could mean greater resource support from the centre for the state’s development. And that has been delivered in some visible ways – Uttar Pradesh, the second poorest  among the larger states, has six metros while the richest and the highly urbanised ones have one, or a maximum of two.

But has the “Double Engine” promise actually worked on the ground? Is it the case that NDA-ruled states have outperformed on economic growth? This question has additional relevance – since the 2024 Lok sabha election setback, the growing chorus in RW circles has been that there are not many “big bang” economic reforms left for the entre to do and it is the states which need to do the heavy lifting. Since BJP positions itself as the natural party of governance, the question therefor is whether it has a demonstrable model of economic governance for the states.

A look at the annual growth in per capita income (real) of the larger states (population > 10 million) over the last 11 years indicates that NDA ruled states have been relative underperformers. For this exercise, I am defining a NDA-ruled state as one where the state BJP unit was either the ruling party or a major partner in the ruling coalition (Bihar and Maharashtra). I exclude states like Andhra and Tamil Nadu, where BJP was a minor force, even though ruled by NDA alliance partners.

Of the 19 large states, seven states have grown at an annual rate above the simple average of the group (4.9%). Of this, only two were NDA-ruled states for 5 years or more- Gujarat and Assam. The remaining 5 states are non-NDA states. Four of the five southern states share the honor (with Kerala being the sole exclusion) of being outperformers. Conversely, 8 out of the 12 states which underperformed the group average were NDA-ruled ones for more than 5 years.

Source: Government of India

For all the hype from his supporters regarding Yogi’s economic record, he does quite badly, underperforming the average by 0.6% despite an extremely low base.

NDA ruled states also do pretty badly if one focusses only on the richer, more industrialized states. Only Gujarat, with its well-established Gujarat Model, initiated under Modi’s CM’ship outperforms the group average. The weak performance of Haryana, a small state with a highly advantageous location (near the National Capital region) where the BJP has ruled uninterruptedly, is especially disappointing. It indicates that BJP as a ruling party, has not yet been able to fashion an effective industrial policy.

Beyond the issue of party politics, the real worry is that the poorer states are significantly underperforming the richer ones (avg of 5.5% vs 4.5% for the poorer states) thereby further widening the inter-state inequality and putting increasing strain on the federal polity. Most of these states happen to be in the Hindi heartland – a region, where Modi swept twice with a seat share of 80% on more on the promise of acche din or economic prosperity. Well, it is the 12 year and the acche din is not yet in sight.  Disillusionment is setting in and that was surely a major driver for the 2024 setback. It could get worse in the next election. Time is running out for Modi and his party.

Update: A reader tells me the charts are difficult to read. You can check out the charts and the data in excel format here