An important article in DAWN by Zia ur Rehman:
Zia ur Rehman is “a journalist and researcher, who writes for The New York Times and Nikkei Asia, among other publications. He also assesses democratic and conflict development in Pakistan for various policy institutes”
Some excerpts:
Islamabad and Tehran share a 900-kilometre border that has long been vulnerable to militant activity, smuggling networks, and sectarian spillover. Pakistan is also home to an estimated 15 to 20 per cent Shia population, one of the largest outside Iran. Many in this community look to Tehranâs clergy and leadership for religious guidance and, at times, political support.
Experts and Pakistani security officials warn that instability in Iran could increase cross-border movement by armed groups and inflame sectarian tensions within Pakistanâs already polarised society.
And:
Amid the latest escalation, Pakistanâs Foreign Ministry condemned what it described as âunwarranted attacksâ on Iran, calling them a threat to regional stability, but stopped short of naming the United States or Israel. It also criticised Iranâs retaliatory strikes on Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other Gulf states.
The governmentâs position has drawn criticism from some Shia groups. Senator Allama Nasir Abbas, who leads Majlis Wahdat Muslimeen â a major Shia political party â said that the government should issue âan explicit condemnationâ of Israel and the United States and formally affirm âIranâs right to defend its sovereigntyâ.
The sentiment is echoed not just in the Shia power corridors but also among the public. âPakistan cannot stay silent when our religious leadership is under attack,â said Ali Raza, a protester in Islamabad. âBy refusing to clearly name those responsible, the government is turning its back on its own people.â
For their part, Pakistani officials insist that foreign policy decisions cannot be driven by sentiment; they must be guided by security, stability, and long-term strategic consideration.
âWe understand the emotional response on the streets,â said a senior Pakistani security official in Islamabad. âBut the state must act in accordance with national interests amid a changing geopolitical situation.â
i) is it true that pak has supplied its air defence systems to saudi?
ii) if america arms iranian /pak baluchi groups, it will be very messy.
Pakistan signed a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia a few months ago. An attack on Saudi is supposed to be treated as an attack on Pakistan (and vice versa). Let’s see if Saudi invokes that clause.
America has no interest in destroying the territorial integrity of Pakistan. The US knows very well that Pakistan is a nuclear armed state.
as I pointed out to formerly brown
if the so called independent qatar is not hitting back
In the case of Qatar, they are sitting on some of largest LNG production and storage.
They have shut down the LNG production
Cant afford to have drones or missiles , or even debris hitting the storage. The whole storage will go up like a Nuclear Bomb
Same with Saudi, Oil production can go up in flames even though the oil is less volatile
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Qatarâs long-standing image as the worldâs most reliable LNG supplier abruptly ended on Wednesday after QatarEnergy halted LNG production and declared force majeure to customers, a major shock to global gas markets given that Qatar accounts for 20% of global LNG exports, with 80% of those volumes to Asia.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/qatarenergy-declares-force-majeure-one-fifth-global-lng-supply-goes-dark
Interesting Article to think about. Just some exerpts to give the grist.
So far, however, markets have been remarkably sanguine, perhaps, as the excellent Yves Smith posits, because âbigotry and Western narrative control were able to shore up the idea that this would be a short conflict and that Iran would return to the negotiating table after the US broke its legs, or better yet fall quickly into civil unrest, making regime change or balkanization possible
Oil prices have drifted higher but the movements have so far been disciplined â much more so than many expected. A long disruption is not being priced in. It certainly helps that the US is the largest crude producer in the world and (usually) the third largest exporter. This means that any blockade chokes Asia and Europe first, whereas America has a buffer â one, I might add, it didnât have in previous conflagrations.
Notice the very troubling negative feedback loop: higher interest rates suppress asset prices, thus leading to a lower tax intake by the government, while also entailing a higher debt-servicing expense. So a drop in asset prices forces the government to spend more to service its debt while at that exact moment decreasing the amount it collects in taxes. The result? More Treasury issuance, of course, and at higher interest rates. The moral of the story here is that longer-term the US cannot fiscally survive a massive decrease in financial asset prices.
The power of a simple yieldEven more sensitive than stocks is the US Treasury (UST) market, which is the true plumbing of the financial system. Higher UST yields tighten financial conditions everywhere, all at once. In a heavily indebted and leveraged system such as the US, rapid moves in this market are extremely dangerous. This is where the constraints start to be measured in hours. A very telling â albeit underreported â instance of this tremendous sensitivity to Treasury market dysfunction came last year.
On Monday,(April 7 2025) however, UST yields engineered a U-turn and started moving higher as the true implications of the radical tariffs started to dawn. The following day saw more of the same. By Tuesday afternoon, the 10y yield was approaching 4.30%. On Wednesday, the very day the tariffs were supposed to take effect, the 10y added another 10 basis points to 4.40%, putting the three-day gain at around 50 basis points.
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This could prove to be Americaâs Achillesâ heel in the Iran warIn a strange way, markets could come to be a surrogate institutional check on a country that otherwise doesnât know restraint
https://www.rt.com/business/633789-americas-achilles-heel-in-iran-war/