I am adding this post after procrastinating putting it up for days.
Most Indian RWers and even Centrists and LWers are directly or subtly on side of Iran vs Israel/US. One just has to visit timeline of Hindutvavadi influencers like JSai Deepak, Abhijit Iyer, Kushal Mehra.
Even the Right leaning or Centrist media people like Shiv Aroor, Palki Sharma, Arnab are actively cheerleading Iran. Indian government has thus far avoided taking a position pro Iran, but its obvious where Indian interests lie.
Despite Military ties with Israel and India seen as generally pro Israel – the criticism of Israel and Bibi is very common now in Indian SM.
Funny none of the posters here have noticed this !
I thought of sharing this in the comments (since I am not an author) but off late there has been so much noise I desisted thinking it would get lost in the cacophony. I think everyone East of Iran is realizing that this war serves interests of only 2 nations – Israel and US with second order beneficiaries being countries like Canada, Russia at the cost of almost everyone else.
You are welcome to Authorship.
Thank you! Will give it some time to choose what I want to write about – something more long form.
I went with classmates with two days hanging out in the jungles
All four of them are born and bred Anglicans. They have been in the West is Best camp. Surprisingly they are now critical of US and Israel. They are now sympathetic to Iran
I mentioned about the Bahais and that they were heretic Shia Muslims who had to leave Iran. Plus the close alignment with Israel and supporting the protests and the Shah.
The most religious of them had heard of the Bahais. Thought it was some new age cult. I guess they know differently now.
We donât support the Shah or the protests btw; we are partial to all parties.
The Iranian regime has been attacking BahĂĄâĂs since the Revolution began but otherwise we donât take a partisan view on political matters.
Admin Note: this is a palpably offensive and untrue comment.
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it is probably because of trump’s behaviour towards india. trump puts into practice the saying, ‘ … to be america’s friend is fatal..’.
otherwise there is no love for iran. whilst the jurnos are trying to get back to center from right, the others are hedging their bets.
one prominent name missing from the list is that of anand ranganathan.
Hindu right wing alliance with the Jews was always extremely naive
Jews and Protestant Christian zionists absolutely loathe paganism in any form and by extension – they hate Hindu culture when they see it. These groups are actually what the Hindu RW accuse Indian Muslims to be (who are not anything like Jews or Christian Zionists)
Jews and Protestant Christian zionists absolutely loathe paganism in any form and by extension â they hate Hindu culture
Exact;y, I have been saying this for years
Jews and Protestant Christian zionists absolutely loathe paganism in any form and by extension â they hate Hindu culture
When the leadership is unaware of these biases in Nations, the leader make huge mistakes in judgement.
The same in current Sri Lankan leadership. They are absolutely unaware of society in other countries. This may not be a huge issue in times of peace. However, in times of Turmoil and war and the inability to make an “educated” judgement can be fatal..
I notice the same folks who are really enthusiastic about valorizing Jews and Israel typically have no personal exposure to either. Whether they be from Arkansas or Ahmedabad
It is obvious that the US & Israel is trying to humiliate and dismember Iran..
They would do the same to any other country whther it be India, China or the EU.
Britain did a big own goal with Brexit
valorizing Jews and Israel typically have no personal exposure to either.
As I lived in NY and later worked in Wall Street exposure to both kinds, the secular and Zionists.
My first job bosses were secular Jews. Nice people. Still kind of in touch with them via email etc.
Sri Lanka and Mattala Airport in the News
Looks like many except Sri Lankans “want” the Rajapakse Mattala Airport.
Sri Lanka is a US regional ally, and America remains the small south Asian nation’s largest export market, accounting for nearly $3 billion of the $11.7 billion of goods Sri Lanka exports annually.
And now, the country’s president Anura Kumara Dissanayake has revealed he previously formally rejected a request from Washington to allow two US fighter jets to land at Mattala International Airport.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-ally-southeast-asia-rejects-pentagon-request-land-fighter-jets-more-come
Couple of Headlines to think about. What is this going to do to the SL (and Indias) economy, and pretty much everything else including fertilizer etc
Qatar LNG Repairs To Take Up To Five Years, Cost $20 Billion In Lost Revenue, Cripple Chinese Supply
Qatar Dethroned As ‘LNG King’ As U.S. Seizes Throne, Reshaping Future Of Gas
The UK gave US permission to use Diego Garcia.
Maybe this was a warning shot.
Distance from Iran to Diego Garcia is 3,800 km (2,500 miles). Thats out of range of Irans known missiles. Russian supplied missiles.?
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-israel-war-updates-2026/card/iran-targeted-diego-garcia-base-with-ballistic-missiles-rb7
This could be Iran signalling before a US invasion that it has ICBMs
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An ICBM on mainland USA would probably be met with a nuke.
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https://x.com/sushantsareen/status/2035262095403700439
>>The Saudis hired Pakistanis like someone does a bodyguard. If the hirer is attacked, the bodyguard canât say you throw the first punch and then I will protect you. Nor can he say I was hired only to defend you if there is a home invasion not if someone is firing or chucking stones on your house. The bodyguard can keep boasting about his muscle but thatâs no comfort if he chickens out when the crunch time comes. Saudis being polite people will not sack the bodyguard. But this is the second time – first was ten years back when the body guard begged off from fighting the Houthis in Yemen – that the bodyguard had ditched his paymaster. Maybe the Saudis still feel the slimy, flatterer has some use. But the record suggests that the guy scoots at the first sign of trouble and is unreliable.
largely true?? or not?
Saudis don’t have any other options. After paying trillions in Jizya to the USA, the USA instead of providing defence, brough war to their shores and have put them in risk. They don’t have any other option outside of relying on Pakistan or Egypt.
Ofcourse these guys can actually man up and do the fighting themselves, but they havent been a warrior nation for over 1300 years and perhaps will never be.
Even their battles like Badr seemed like skirmishes
It’s a skirmish as per the early Islamic sources themselves.. 313 vs ~1000 people is definitely that.
So Egypt with a GDP pci of “just” 3000 USD and Pakistan with 1500 USD is going to replace the freaking USA while having no military industrial complex of their own.
Their are neighbourhoods of New York which have a greater GDP than Pakistan.
Qureishi seems to be one of those English speaking faujeets from Twitter who like to kang about being some being geopolitical player while reality is Pakistan is poorer than most sub-saharan African countries.
I think the idea is that the Saudis will bring the money and Pakistan the personnel. I don’t know if this still holds, but the legacy of the British Indian army was such that Pakistan was valued among certain MENA nations for it’s military know how back in the 50s as 60s. It’s like any industry, experience is experience.
What is Pakistan going to do?
Invade Iran and thus inflame both the Balochistan movement as well as antagonize its own Shia population?
Iran will also start coordinating with the Afghans then.
Even in the British Indian Army, the weapons were all foreign.
Will the Pakistanis provide arms and equipment from their non existent MIC?
The problem BB with your analysis is that it is skewed.
You have to be able to assess ur enemies in a neutral fashion.
Thatâs where US & Israel made a mistake; they thoughts Iranians were stupid and dumb brown people.
You do the same mistake with Pakistan.
SA is constantly going on the airwaves talking about its strategic partnership with Pakistan. If Pakistan is Prussia, it can literally rent out its army.
Strangely enough the Pakistani people donât seem to have a problem with that
Again, this is a completely different point.
How is Pakistan going to do better than what the US is doing vs Iran.
see the latest post
Pakistan has a solid MIC.
Pakistanis donât have the appetite to war on a Muslim country with the exception of Afghanistan
I would say Pakistanis are not even fine with war against Afghanistan when Afghan civilians start dying enmasse.
The ceasefire happened partly because of the local outrage on the drug rehab inmates dying in Kabul.
sorry are we somehow claiming that Pakistani civilians ‘not being fine with Afghan civilian deaths’ somehow caused a change in policy?
Because that’s just utterly delusional. Let’s be honest about what drives Pakistani policy.
Yes, even authoritarian governments have to consider immense public pressure.
In any case, the objectives of destroying Afghan weapons stockpile was mostly achieved over the last three weeks with minimal civilian casualties, until the last day.
I find it……..slightly amusing that RW Pakistanis seem to get so much satisfaction from their military ‘operations’ against Afghanistan, echoing their RW counterparts in India.
The Afghans brought this upon themselves, unfortunately thinking that they can defeat Pakistan and change the map, just because they got the better of the USSR and the USA/Nato. Their attacks on Pakistan, especially in the last 4 years are considered a great betrayal, which is why even the mullahs in the mosques were in favor of cutting them to size. However mass civilian casulties are still not acceptable, and rightly so.
They have an M.
Not an MIC. Everything they have is either American or Chinese.
again you seem to see Pakistan can’t do anything right; it renders the analysis incomplete and biased.
Naah, they are good for security purposes against terror groups/insurgents and weaker level enemies like Houthis/Hamas, I will give them that.
But an “offensive” war vs Iran is a level too high.
For that matter, even India can’t do an “offensive” war vs Iran.
Them being a security guarantor in the middle east is just overreaching.
Guesstimate ~50K+ people involved in defence industry of Pakistan, POF, NESCOM, HIT, PAC Kamra, KSEW.
India ~120K in the public sector.
I literally said EVEN India can’t do an “offensive” war even if it’s MIC is more advanced than Pakistan’s.
Only three countries in the world have complete MICs where they can produce everything – USA, Russia, China
Russia has become economically weak and has its own issues in Ukraine. China can theoretically be the security guarantor but seems to have no interest and just wants to keep growing in peace (at least for the foreseeable future).
What is a MIC
Military Industrial Complex
Pak can provide bodies to the middle east.
They can’t provide air defense, jets, aircraft carriers etc.
Pakistan has swapped roles in playing India’s balancing act. India has an amazing economy but weaker diplomacy
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2036148723919757679?s=20
BREAKING: Pakistan is positioning itself as the “lead mediator” between the US and Iran amid peace talk discussions, per FT.
Details include:
1. Pakistan is using its ties to Iran and “warm relationship” with President Trump
2. Pakistan has pitched Islamabad as venue for talks in the coming days involving senior figures from the Trump administration and Iran
3. Pakistan’s Army chief Asim Munir spoke with Trump on Sunday
4. Pakistan’s Prime Minister held talks with Iranian President Pezeshkian on Monday
The conversation between the Pakistani and Iranian leaders reportedly came at around the same time President Trump posted on a potential peace deal this morning.
Naah, no need for India to get involved in this. Even China and Russia aren’t.
If Pakistan thinks getting involved in the middle east makes them “kingmakers”, good for them.
Nothing I would like more than Pakistan going off to join the middle east and leave India alone.
India “already” is doing the balancing act by having military/tech ties with Israel and oil from Iran. No need to play hero and jeopardize this.
The good doctor Omar’s words –
“Any country that can avoid entanglement in this mess is on the right path. Your eagerness to join these silly geopolitical games is a bit shocking. Focus on the economy, leave these things to the middle east”
https://x.com/omarali50/status/2036119174930416116
“This perfectly captures our tragedy. First leaving India to join the middle east, then exulting over geopolitical games that will deliver no benefits other than rent for the army :(”
https://x.com/omarali50/status/2036106293442642192
Naah, no need for India to get involved in this. Even China and Russia arenât.
If Pakistan thinks getting involved in the middle east makes them âkingmakersâ, good for them.
Nothing I would like more than Pakistan going off to join the middle east and leave India alone.
India âalreadyâ is doing the balancing act by having military/tech ties with Israel and oil from Iran. No need to play hero and jeopardize this.
India has massively finished off its internal terrorist issues and economically doing well. Keep your head down and keep growing.
The good doctor Omarâs words â
âAny country that can avoid entanglement in this mess is on the right path. Your eagerness to join these silly geopolitical games is a bit shocking. Focus on the economy, leave these things to the middle eastâ
âThis perfectly captures our tragedy. First leaving India to join the middle east, then exulting over geopolitical games that will deliver no benefits other than rent for the army :(â
Pic unrelated đ
Military is not simply a function of economies
It is.
The idea that Pakistan/Egypt can replace the USA is so delusional.
Will they be able to provide the GCC with air defense, missiles?
Will they be able to strike Iran the way the USA or Israel (with American weapons are doing).
Not to mention the costs Iran can impose on Pakistan.
Why do you keep harping about GDP.
What is Saudi’s GDP per capita? Qatar’s GDP per capita? UAE’s? Kuwaits?
What’s their defence budgets? Military Equipment?
Based on these stats alone, in YOUR world, they should destroy Iran.
But they know they don’t even come close, even combined.
Was are not won by GDP per capita figures.
That is not even the point I was talking about.
The point was the delusion that Pakistan/Egypt would replace the USA.
What is Pakistan going to do?
Invade Iran in a land war?
Wonder what the Shia in Pakistan would think about that – going to war with Iran on behalf of Israel lol.
Not to mention what the Iranians can do both on the Baloch as well as the Afghan front.
And I’m not even including Iran’s missiles/drones.
Thing is Pakistan is a very small economy, and is dependent both economically/militarily on USA/China and will do nothing to antagonize either of them and going to war against/for Iran/GCC will do that.
By most accounts Saudis and Israel played of Trumps Hubris to get Iran started.
Can’t say if Qataris and Kuwaitis concurred but seems Saudis want Iran obliterated as much or just slightly less than Israel.
Off topic but the number of people in subcontinent is truly beyond the rest.
Iran seen as a large has 9cr.
Pakistan has 25cr.
UP 24cr.
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Great post- thank you Gaurav
An important analysis
THE PHYSICAL CLOSURE IS WITHOUT PRECEDENT. Polymarket puts the probability that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed on March 31st at 85%. Thirty-one days at net 18.5 million barrels per day (b/d) is 575 million barrels of stopped flows â 1.4 times the entire US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But this is not just an oil crisis. The strait carries gas, fertilizers, and metals. The system simply cannot accommodate that kind of disruption. Either Polymarket is wrong, or financial markets are wildly optimistic. In our view, policy options are unlikely to break crudeâs ascent while Hormuz remains blocked.
THE NEW JOULE ORDER DEMANDS SECURITY FIRST. WE ARE NOWHERE CLOSE. The hierarchy of energy needs is security, affordability, and sustainability â in that orderâŠ. rising energy insecurity does what it always does â it triggers hoarding, which exacerbates the inability to substitute.
OIL IS THE RARE EARTH OF THE MACRO SYSTEM . Fifty years of efficiency gains have made oil cheaper per unit of GDP â but more irreplaceable in function. The remaining barrels are the ones for which no substitute exists: petrochemical feedstocks, aviation fuel, grid balancing, fertilizers. Remove them and you do not get demand destruction â you get production shutdowns. We believe the world is more vulnerable to an oil shock today than it was in 1973, not less.
THE SECURITY PREMIUM IS THE HOARDING PREMIUM. In 1979, a 4â5% physical shortfall triggered precautionary hoarding that doubled the effective demand impact. The same dynamic is now operating at a far greater scale. China has suspended petroleum product exports. Every major importer is securing supply simultaneously. We estimate that precautionary demand could be 2-3 million b/d over the next 3-6 months. The physical disruption is the trigger; the behavioral response is the multiplier .
THE CREDIT CHANNEL HAS BEEN REVERSED In the 1970s, OPEC surpluses were recycled through Western banks, expanding global credit, in a process whose mechanics resembled quantitative easing. Today, the transmission runs in reverse. MENA invests domestically and de-dollarizes. Federal debt stands at 120% of GDP, versus 32% in 1974. Inflation-indexed transfer payments automatically widen the deficit. Government borrowing displaces private sector credit creation far more aggressively than it did fifty years ago
Carlyleâs Jeff Currie, via NakedCapitalism
yes markets aren’t able to consume this shock.
Look at all the Pakistanis chimping here after Iran thanked India for donations from Kashmiri Shias.
https://x.com/Iran_in_India/status/2035687456058794058
“Paijaan, Kashmir not Endia”
There is no ummah.