The bounds of decency

It is clear that the Tamil political leadership believes (driven by electoral compulsions) that the LTTE gangsters responsible for the death of Rajiv Gandhi are innocent and should be set free. It is also clear that given the nature of coalition politics (now and in the future) gangsters can always bank on regional identity to protect them- be it a Sikh or a Tamil or whatever. Kashmiris like Afzal Guru have not been so lucky.

Incidentally this is the same claim of normalization/vindication for Narendra Modi (who in my book is much more obnoxious for having used the powers of the state to terrorize people). The electoral victories that the people of Gujarat have bestowed on him carry more authority that any number of court verdicts.

Hear is Harithra, daughter of Nalini and Murugan who is making the case for the release of all the gangsters

In yet another emotive appeal to AICC president Sonia Gandhi and her children, Rahul and Priyanka, Harithra, the 22-year-old daughter of Nalini and Murugan, convicted in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination
case, has sought the release of her father. If they helped to get back
her father, they would be hailed as saviours, she said..
…The recent letters were written in the wake of the
Supreme Court order commuting the death sentence of the three convicts,
Murugan, Santhan and Perarivalan, the subsequent decision of Tamil Nadu
chief minister J Jayalalithaa to release them, and the apex court’s move
to stay their release. Harithra said her parents have been behind the
bars ever since she knew about them. “When I was mature enough to
understand the world around me, I’ve heard people talking about the
heinous assassination of Mr Rajiv Gandhi. Now I truly understand that
the incident is one of the most tragic and devastating moments of Indian
history,”
she said.                                                                                                                                                                          
It seems no one cares for the bombing victims who were also Tamils.                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                  

“Where is the justice for the bereaved families after
all these years,” asked S. Abbas, who lost his mother Shanthini Begum in
the Sriperumbudur blasts.
Of the 15 other victims of the blast, five
were Congress workers while and 10 were policemen, including nine from
the State force…..“We are not advocating death penalty
but we want those convicted by the highest court of carrying out a
heinous act to undergo the punishment meted out by the court. They
cannot be allowed to walk scot free,” said ‘League’ M. Mohan, whose
Congressman father ‘League’ P. Munusamy was one of the victims.

                                                                                                                                                                    I am anti- death penalty and applaud the Supreme Court decision for rescinding the same but I worry about what broader message that this campaign is sending. In the future the only form of retributive justice that will be available will be mob justice (while the petty politicians will plead ignorance and innocence).                                                                                                                                                                   regards

Why Islam Haunts India

I’ve been able to get the chapter on India (Iran is the following one). I’ll post it when I get it. It is simply the must-read on geopolitics and the Subcontinent; Robert Kaplan is a genius. The photos aren’t exactly clear (I forgot my smart phone in SE Asia) but it’s still readable.

This chapter almost made me miss my flight even when I was next to my Gate, it’s that informative.

On my facebook I have created an album called Why Islam haunts India where I have captioned each picture with the salient sentence.

By the way I went to a lot of trouble to get all this lolz.

Is Pakistan the reason why India is not yet a Great Power?

I was rifling through Bangkok Airport (which is just amazing) on the long transits back to Africa and I saw George Friedman’s book, the Next 100 Years, which simply seemed fantastical (in one scenario Turkey, Japan & Germany wage war on the US, Poland & UK in 2050 after the collapse of Russia).

Anyway as I crossed over to the next bookshop close to my departure gate I saw The Revenge of Geography of Robert Kaplan.

Now Robert Kaplan (along with Huntington, Asimov and maybe Bernard Lewis) are huge intellectual influences on how I perceive the world. I became far more of a geographical determinist my Eureka moment happened what a decade ago when I chanced on this article by Robert Kaplan, Roman Africa.

To get to my main point when I was in South East Asia (and ironically Razib had a very good post up on Cambodian genetics at around the time I was in Cambodia) I realised that Hinduism and Buddhism have usually been having a fairly fratricidal relationship over the millennia. However the Hindu Right pays almost no attention to Buddhism but instead subsumes it into a brotherly Dharmic ethos even though Bhutan, Sri Lanka (which are admittedly more ethnic than religious conflicts) and even Pakistan in the deep past (apparently Bangladesh and Pakistan had strong Buddhist history before re-Hinduisation; correct me if I’m wrong).

Around the time I was pondering this though that why do India focus so much on Pakistan and Islam when frankly South East Asia and the Indian ocean is the grand prize. Furthermore India is almost an uncontested power (after all the historic name was Indo-China for the Asean region) but still seems bedevilled by playing power politics in Central Asia, Kashmir, Afghanistan & Pakistan.

Robert Kaplan almost perfectly answered my question as to the overwhelming strategic role Pakistan plays in India’s security. I had unfortunately forgotten my iphone so I would have scanned the whole chapter (it’s that good) so instead I’m going to excerpt from a few other pieces of Kaplan’s:

But the spirit of India has undergone an uneasy shift in this new era of rampant capitalism and of deadly ethnic and religious tensions, which arise partly as violent reactions against exactly the social homogenization that globalization engenders. Gujarat finds itself once again at the heart of what is roiling India, and what singularly menaces the country’s rise to “Great Global Power” status. India is home to 154 million Muslims, the third-largest Muslim population in the world after Indonesia and Pakistan. India has arguably more to lose from extremist Islam than any other country in the world. Yet, as Dwijendra Tripathi, a historian based in Gujarat, lamented to me, “The Hindu-Muslim divide here is worse than at any time since the partition.” Not coincidentally, this rift is deepening even as Gujarat booms economically, with brand-new malls, multi plexes, highways, and private ports transforming it into a pulsing region-state athwart Indian Ocean trade routes. http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/04/indias-new-face/307332/

The greater Indian Ocean region encompasses the entire arc of Islam, from the Sahara Desert to the Indonesian archipelago. Although the Arabs and the Persians are known to Westerners primarily as desert peoples, they have also been great seafarers. In the Middle Ages, they sailed from Arabia to China; proselytizing along the way, they spread their faith through sea-based commerce. Today, the western reaches of the Indian Ocean include the tinderboxes of Somalia, Yemen, Iran, and Pakistan — constituting a network of dynamic trade as well as a network of global terrorism, piracy, and drug smuggling. Hundreds of millions of Muslims — the legacy of those medieval conversions — live along the Indian Ocean’s eastern edges, in India and Bangladesh, Malaysia and Indonesia. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64832/robert-d-kaplan/center-stage-for-the-21st-century

As the competition between India and China suggests, the Indian Ocean is where global struggles will play out in the twenty-first century. The old borders of the Cold War map are crumbling fast, and Asia is becoming a more integrated unit, from the Middle East to the Pacific. South Asia has been an indivisible part of the greater Islamic Middle East since the Middle Ages: it was the Muslim Ghaznavids of eastern Afghanistan who launched raids on India’s northwestern coast in the early eleventh century; Indian civilization itself is a fusion of the indigenous Hindu culture and the cultural imprint left by these invasions. Although it took the seaborne terrorist attacks in Mumbai last November for most Westerners to locate India inside the greater Middle East, the Indian Ocean’s entire coast has always constituted one vast interconnected expanse.
What is different now is the extent of these connections. On a maritime-centric map of southern Eurasia, artificial land divisions disappear; even landlocked Central Asia is related to the Indian Ocean. Natural gas from Turkmenistan may one day flow through Afghanistan, for example, en route to Pakistani and Indian cities and ports, one of several possible energy links between Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent. Both the Chinese port in Gwadar, Pakistan, and the Indian port in Chah Bahar, Iran, may eventually be connected to oil- and natural-gas-rich Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and other former Soviet republics. S. Frederick Starr, a Central Asia expert at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said at a conference in Washington last year that access to the Indian Ocean “will help define Central Asian politics in the future.” Others have called ports in India and Pakistan “evacuation points” for Caspian Sea oil. The destinies of countries even 1,200 miles from the Indian Ocean are connected with it.

Welcome to the newborn (#29)

A new state is officially born as the Telengana bill passes both Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha. The agitation for the separate state was initiated right after independence. In its own way, this development honours the memory of Gandhi. Everyone has a different opinion on what aspects of the Gandhian path are bene(male)-volent, in my own opinion the most significant is his stress on local rule. For people-power to be truly realized, power has to be taken out of hands of a few elites sitting (and stealing) in Delhi.

regards

Adieu to Asia

I’m about to leave Cambodia to head back to Uganda. I’m hoping to share my thoughts as I’ve become a bit of an old hand when it comes to South & South East Asia.

At any rate it’s back to Africa and even though developing countries are broadly similar; I have to admit that Phnom Penh and Kampala are totally different in their levels of organisation.

Oh and Bombay airport is simply spectacular.

Good news

…one more step towards secular law for all, in an atmosphere where the anti-secular forces are on the rise everywhere.

…a separate question however for the truly informed. Why are Indian muslims forbidden to adopt ( I presume there is no such injunction in “pure” muslim countries)?

In a landmark judgment, the Supreme Court has given Muslims the right to adopt a child despite their personal law prohibiting it.

The apex court said on Wednesday that the laws of land has to get primacy over personal law till the country achieves Uniform Civil Code as provided in Article 44 of the Constitution.

The SC judgment comes on an 8 years old petition by Shabnam Hashmi who
had approached the apex court after being refused permission to adopt.

Though the SC said all individuals have a statutory right to adopt a
child, it said the time is not ripe to declare the right to adopt a
fundamental right.

regards

Under the Magic Tube-Light: A Fantasia

I am a big fan of Musharraf
Ali Farooqi’s “Magic Lantern” fables
, but magic lanterns are for civilized
places like Abbasid Baghdad or Fatimid Cairo. In Pakistan, we look for magic in
more mundane lighting equipment – except when there is load-shedding, of course
.
The other day, having just watched the last episode of
Sherlock, I dozed off on the couch and found myself transported to the land of
fantasy where most of Pakistan’s elite dwells. There, under a flickering
fluorescent light outside a pub somewhere between Badshahi Masjid and
Mazar-e-Quaid (hey, this is fantasy,
y’all), I heard a voice within the tavern cry out something that Sherlock
Holmes once told Dr. Watson: “When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” This revelation re-awakened that
ancient part of my brain that had been pickled for many years in Pakistan
Studies, and the natural urge to explain the absurd behavior of Pakistani
political leadership through serial conspiracy theories became irresistible.
After all, conspiracy theories are cheaper in Pakistan than anywhere else in
the world, except when Shireen Mazari dines alone at a bistro in Manhattan
during her periodic fundraising visits to the Land of Yahood-o-Nasaara. So why
not indulge a bit in the national pastime?
Well, first some background.
After the May 2013 elections, all political parties, bullied
by Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) and Imran Khan’s Pakistan
Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), agreed to “give peace a chance” and negotiate with the
Taliban extremists who had been terrorizing many parts of the country for
several years. This decision, taken at an All-Parties Conference (APC) in September
2013, was followed by a period of inexplicable stasis, with no visible effort
or progress towards negotiations from any quarter. Meanwhile, the Taliban went
about their business as usual – a prison break
here
, an
attack on a church
there, random assassinations of
Shias
, suicide
bombing of Hazaras
, and so on – you know, the normal humdrum work of
terrorists addicted to human carnage. Slowly, inexorably, sentiment built up in
the country for a military operation against these inconvenient killers,
reaching a high point after an extraordinarily courageous 15 year old student, Aitzaz Hassan, set an
example. And as this mood developed, so – magically – did momentum for
negotiations. A committee of, pardon me, nobodies-in-particular was assembled
on behalf of the Government. The Taliban reciprocated by choosing a few gems
from the rich showcase of options available to them from among their
sympathizers – bearded and beardless. Among this chosen elite was Imran Khan,
called upon by his “upset friends” to help them get less upset and kill with
greater kindness. But the Sage of Bani Gala (formerly of Zaman Park and Sussex)
declined the opportunity, choosing instead to retire into the mists of his
fevered fulminations. Nawaz Sharif – in brief moments of visibility – was
visibly mum, while his surrogates put forth statements with a remarkably low
signal-to-noise ratio. The military too went all quiet, leaving the fray to
bloviating mythologists like Hamid Gul, Orya Maqbool Jan and Ansar Abbasi. According
to some reports, even the Americans temporarily curtailed their drone strikes
so the Taliban could cower less and talk more. Of course, the Taliban
gratefully accepted this opportunity and escalated the pace of their
pronouncements – in their usual language of murder and mayhem. More explosions,
more targeted
killings
, a
few dead journalists
, then an
attack of policemen in Karachi
, on Shia pilgrims in
Baluchistan
, on
cinema-goers in Peshawar
and, ultimately, the
beheading of 23 captive Pakistani soldiers
. By this point, even the hound
of the Baskervilles would have howled, but nothing has come from either PML-N
or PTI except more prattle about negotiations. And the military has still
stayed quiet. These are the things that, as they say, need ‘splainin’.
First, PTI’s unshakeable faith in negotiations in the face
of mounting attacks from the other side (though, in fairness, all sides are
their “own” for PTI). Perhaps a hint can be found in Imran Khan’s impolitic
statement that the military only estimated a 40% chance of success in an attack
on FATA (Federally-Administered Tribal Areas), and Gen. Kiyani’s corrective
rejoinder clarifying that, in fact, the military had estimated that cleaning up
FATA would only result in a 40% reduction in terrorism nationally, and eradicating the remaining 60% would require action
throughout the rest of the country. The Taliban, after all, are now a national
brand, and combating them would lead to extensive chaos and bloodshed all over
Pakistan. That is something that the Government understandably wants to avoid. But,
unlike the Government, PTI has no actual responsibility for national security –
a position that their spokesmen proclaim proudly in every forum. Now, if PTI
knows that negotiations must fail and a military operation will be necessary, they
must realize also that things will get a lot worse before they get any better.
The Taliban, confronted on their home territory, will create mayhem in all
other parts of the country – even in Punjab where the elite seem more
interested in golf than in reality. And then people will ask, “Who is
responsible for this calamity?” And Imran Khan will say, “See, this is why I
wanted to keep negotiating rather than starting a war!” And the poor, innocent,
decent and deluded people of Pakistan will nod their heads and say, “Yes, that
is true, Great Leader. Can we please kiss your feet?” And Imran Khan will be
the savior of Pakistan – the man who looked beyond the last mountain and
maintained the serenity of wisdom when everyone else was succumbing to the siren
call of war. Thus, in my conspirofantasy, Imran Khan is being pro-peace so he can pick up the pieces after the coming
war.
But what of Nawaz Sharif? There’s already a conspiracy
theory about his behavior, which says that he is negotiating with the Taliban
to spare Punjab and to give them free rein in all other areas. But really, who
thinks Shahbaz Sharif is that stupid? Enjoying golf in a landlocked Punjab while
the country burns all around? The moderately heavy mandate would go on a
terminal diet! So what explains the taciturn calm of the nihari caucus. Well,
perhaps they are calm because, in fact, the operation for which so many are clamoring
has already begun some time ago – but not where everyone expects it. The
Taliban are certainly signaling that something is stressing them in places like
Karachi and Peshawar. And sure enough, there in broad daylight, an operation is
underway – the so-called operation against targeted killings. There is very
little detail, but stories of “encounters” occasionally leak into the media.
The iceberg theory of clandestine operations suggests that much more is
happening, and that much of it is directed against the Taliban, though the
security forces take opportunistic swipes at the MQM and Baloch groups as well.
In the context of my first conspiracy theory explaining Imran Khan’s behavior,
this makes perfect sense: If the fear is that a Waziristan operation will
ignite chaos in the rest of the country, why not reduce the threat there before
turning to the home turf of the extremists? So my second conspiracy theory says
that the Government and the Army are already well into an operation to push the
Taliban from their peripheral positions back into the FATA box where they can
then be dealt with in a full operation . If so, PML-N would have neutralized
the “pick up the pieces” strategy that Imran Khan might be counting on.
So then, two interlocking conspiracy theories from the Land
of Only If! Alas, in the World of What Is, the actors on Pakistan’s stage are
too short-sighted to have hatched such conspiracies. As for the Taliban negotiating
peace, you’ve heard the story of the scorpion, the frog and the river crossing, right? Yeah, like
that!

Taking on the TTP, part X

Embedded image permalink

Postscript: I have had a lot of comments from friends on this piece and here is a summary:
1. The deep state has a coherent Afghan policy that requires maintaining Jihadi proxies. That show is still the main show. This farce will go on and the deep state probably doesnt mind the fact that it will go on. 
2. The deep state has already launched an anti-taliban operation, but not yet in Waziristan. Still, its coming. 
3. More of the same. Nothing new has happened, nothing new is about to happen. 
4. The proverbial shit has already hit the fan. Pakistan is beyond the point of no return. 
And so on.
Take your pick. I have no inside info. Every theory falls apart as you pursue it some distance (some fall apart before the pursuit starts. Alas, the left has left the building 😉 ). 

Maybe nobody is in control, but Saudi Arabia, Amrika and GHQ all think they know what they are doing and all think they are about to make monkeys of everyone else.  With that cheery thought in mind, read on..

Apparently the army is about to do something or the other against some group or the other in North Waziristan. This is big news because North Waziristan has been off limits to “operations” for years, with various jihadi groups living, training and carousing in the region with nothing to fear except the occasional drone attack. If the operation goes ahead, this may cause the TTP (the main Pakistani Taliban group) to conduct revenge operations even in the safe zones of Punjab, which may cause real anxiety in real Pakistan.

Aware of the possibility of a coming operation and being serious players, the TTP has wasted no time taking the initiative. They have made monkeys of Mian Nawaz Sharif and Chodhri Nisar  and completely hijacked their idiotic “talks” gambit. It is likely that the “talks” were always meant to be a farce, and MNS and company thought this was just a good way to expose the bloodthirsty Taliban and their civilian supporters (like the PTI and the Jamat e Islami) before the serious business of killing starts and the inevitable blowback causes the Punjabi people to look around for a scapegoat. If so, the gambit has failed spectacularly. The TTP proved cleverer and more capable than the government of Pakistan and announced their own farcical committee to hold negotiations with Nawaz Sharif’s farcical committee while their brothers continued to knock off opponents and spread terror. It has been a brilliant performance, nicely cataloged here by Ayaz Amir. 

But a bloodier phase may start soon. 50,000 Pakistanis have already died and more (unfortunately) are going to pay the price in the days to come. It probably didnt have to be this bad. More efficient ways of terminating (betraying) the Jihad experiment were possible, mostly involving cleverly cooperating with the US, India and China, but sometimes elites dont know what side they are on. Even though Pakistan’s rulers were never going to set up some Jihadi North Korea and wave the Juche flag, they couldnt bring themselves to bite the bullet and 12 years of waffling have certainly raised the casualty count and made the next phase more painful that it had to be.

But these are mere details. Since even birather China wants the Jihadi safe havens terminated with maximum prejudice, its gonna happen, one way or the other. Liberals should keep their heads down and occasionally protest the human rights abuses to come. The rest is not up to them…
The story line remains a problem though. All the indications are that operation is going to rely on the CIA-RAW conspiracy template to justify the action. This, coupled with the presence of Imran Khan and media Taliban (like Orya Maqbool and Ansar Abbasis) is going to confuse the narrative in so many ways, its hard to even describe it. The confusion is so bad, our well armed elite may end up losing the war just because it didn’t have a good enough story to fit the war.
500,000 man army, 200 nuclear weapons, 3000 tanks…but no story that can hold it all together.
Pakistan remains sui generis.
See what our tax rupees are paying for:

The Taliban meanwhile are sending some messages of their own:


So, the Taliban brought headless (freshly killed, blood soaked) bodies in an open pickup truck and dumped them on a “government controlled” road in Mohmand and filmed the scene…for 11 minutes. You can watch the video if you are up to it. I know there are bigger problems in Pakistan, but from here this seems vaguely disturbing

Brown in space

Science in India has to some extent a reputation for lassitude. Mind you, not Indian scientists, but institutional Indian scientific culture. So what explain’s the space program? From India, Proof That a Trip to Mars Doesn’t Have to Break the Bank:

While India’s recent launch of a spacecraft to Mars was a remarkable feat in its own right, it is the $75 million mission’s thrifty approach to time, money and materials that is getting attention.

Just days after the launch of India’s Mangalyaan satellite, NASA sent off its own Mars mission, five years in the making, named Maven. Its cost: $671 million. The budget of India’s Mars mission, by contrast, was just three-quarters of the $100 million that Hollywood spent on last year’s space-based hit, “Gravity.”

My explanation is simple: national pride and motivation to do something that matters. Soviet science did great things too, when it could motivate people. The issue in places like Italy and India is to incentivize this sort of productivity in their general scientific cultures.

Why the elite in the Rest yearn for the West

I’ve become an old hand in the developing world since I’ve done a fair bit of travelling.

I’ve noticed that elites throughout the world (and middle classes) dream of the West even when they lead fairly prosperous lives at home.
I could never really fathom why this was the case because if one has money (and lots of it) what’s the functional difference between Bombay and London (also the advantage being in the developing markets one can be part of the elite class at much lower wealth levels, which are not possible in the West).
I’ve realised that it’s all to do with self-actualisation and the stress of individuality that seems to be the distinctive hall mark of Western culture. In the East & global South the collective spirits is so strong that people take human connections for granted.
In the West self-actualisation is so pronounced that human ties take a very secondary role to the life of the individual (reality is far more blurred but this is the ideal).
So when Hollywood and Cable Tv bombard images of well turned-out successful Western individuals it takes a hold on the national imagination. Hence the global developing elites aren’t necessarily yearning for personal prosperity but the dream of becoming one’s own self that only seems possible in broadly prosperous and largely middle class societies (even if the US may be among the more unequal societies the huge size of its middle class still holds pronounced cultural sway).
Brown Pundits