A Deleted Tweet Just Moved the Oil Price 17%. Welcome to the New World.

The Graph Nobody Is Talking About

Oil Prices

BP Admin Note

September 2025 โ€“ Brown Pundits
Punditji

Before the oil, a brief note on Brown Pundits itself. Over recent months we have tried to move the comment threads toward a simple goal: remove noise while preserving disagreement. This is not a place for ideological conformity. It is a place where arguments should challenge substance rather than inflame style.

The density of comments has fallen slightly but the quality of disagreement has improved.

What the threads also reveal is a persistent misunderstanding about the relationship between civilisation and crisis. The caricature, that certain societies simply “fail to modernise“, misses the deeper negotiation underway.

Every tradition older than industrial modernity faces the same question: how to carry inherited principles into a world not built around them. That is not a uniquely Muslim or Persian problem. It is the defining problem of our age.

With that said, to the oil!

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SoH > SoM

The Only Number That Matters

Continue reading A Deleted Tweet Just Moved the Oil Price 17%. Welcome to the New World.

On Whose Side Is God?

The Wrong Question About Barbarians

Omar’s excellent piece raises the question of barbarians. I want to raise a harder one: whose side is God on? I ask this not as theology but as military analysis. Because the planners of Operation Epic Fury appear to have assumed the answer is obvious; and that assumption may be the central miscalculation of this war.

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Barbanians

The Pahlavist Map of Iran

The Pahlavists who helped guide this operation are, broadly speaking, secular liberals. Their Iran is Tehran’s northern suburbs, Los Angeles, Paris. Their model of the enemy is a man like themselves: attached to life, afraid of death, protecting assets and family and position.

Rational actors in the economic sense. You remove the leader, you remove the fear, the system collapses. This is a coherent theory of change. It just happens to be wrong about the specific civilization it was applied to.

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The Gift of Martyrdom

Shia Islam is not organised around the fear of death. It is organised around the embrace of honourable death as the supreme spiritual achievement. Karbala is not a trauma to be processed; it is a template to be repeated. Husayn did not miscalculate when he rode into the plain knowing Yazid’s army outnumbered him. He made a theological choice.

The willingness to die without surrendering is not a bug in the Shia operating system. It is the entire point of the operating system. When you assassinate a Supreme Leader who has spent forty years framing his rule in exactly these terms, you do not break the system. You hand it the most powerful gift available: a martyr. Khamenei is now Husayn. The Americans gave him that.

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On Sky Gods and the Human Spirit Continue reading On Whose Side Is God?

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