The Mod-memtum is gaining speed if opinion polls are anything to go by, and now we have a prediction for majority, as the alliances have been firmed up. We remain unconvinced (200-230 is our estimate).
We do have one wish- whatever govt formation takes place, Mamata Banerjee must not be part of it (Trinamool is predicted to be the second largest party). She needs to learn how to govern responsibly (without taking recourse to blackmail) first.
…
For
the first time in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, a poll on Monday
predicted a clear majority for any pre-poll alliance with NDTV
projecting that NDA would get 275 seats in the 543-member House. This is
16 seats more than the poll had predicted last month.
BJP on
its own would win 226 seats — the highest tally ever for the party and
the best by any party since 1991, the poll done by Hansa Research
estimated. UPA would win just 111 seats, with Congress sinking to its
lowest-ever tally of 92 seats, it said.
NDA’s projected win is
based on impressive gains over 2009 in UP (an increase of 41 seats),
Maharashtra (17), Rajasthan (17), Bihar (12), Andhra Pradesh (12) and
Madhya Pradesh (10). In these six states, it stands to gain 109 seats.
In most other states too, NDA is projected to gain, though by more
modest numbers.
The only major states in which the NDA could do worse than five years
ago are Karnataka (a loss of seven seats), Chhattisgarh (two) and West
Bengal (one), according to the latest NDTV poll.
In contrast,
the UPA is predicted to lose seats vis-a-vis 2009 in almost every major
state, with Andhra Pradesh being the worst case, where the Congress
tally could drop from 33 five years ago to just six this time.
Barring Karnataka and Chhattisgarh, the only states where the UPA stands
to gain are Assam (a gain of two seats) and Bihar, where a gain of six
is really only because RJD is now part of the alliance, unlike in 2009.
The largest parties after BJP and Congress would be Trinamool with 30
seats, AIADMK with 22, SP with 14 and BJD with 13. DMK, with its allies,
is likely to win 14 seats and the Left 22. AAP is projected to win just
one seat in Delhi and none elsewhere, at least in the states for which
details were available, which included all those with seven seats or
more.
the first time in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, a poll on Monday
predicted a clear majority for any pre-poll alliance with NDTV
projecting that NDA would get 275 seats in the 543-member House. This is
16 seats more than the poll had predicted last month.
BJP on
its own would win 226 seats — the highest tally ever for the party and
the best by any party since 1991, the poll done by Hansa Research
estimated. UPA would win just 111 seats, with Congress sinking to its
lowest-ever tally of 92 seats, it said.
NDA’s projected win is
based on impressive gains over 2009 in UP (an increase of 41 seats),
Maharashtra (17), Rajasthan (17), Bihar (12), Andhra Pradesh (12) and
Madhya Pradesh (10). In these six states, it stands to gain 109 seats.
In most other states too, NDA is projected to gain, though by more
modest numbers.
The only major states in which the NDA could do worse than five years
ago are Karnataka (a loss of seven seats), Chhattisgarh (two) and West
Bengal (one), according to the latest NDTV poll.
In contrast,
the UPA is predicted to lose seats vis-a-vis 2009 in almost every major
state, with Andhra Pradesh being the worst case, where the Congress
tally could drop from 33 five years ago to just six this time.
Barring Karnataka and Chhattisgarh, the only states where the UPA stands
to gain are Assam (a gain of two seats) and Bihar, where a gain of six
is really only because RJD is now part of the alliance, unlike in 2009.
The largest parties after BJP and Congress would be Trinamool with 30
seats, AIADMK with 22, SP with 14 and BJD with 13. DMK, with its allies,
is likely to win 14 seats and the Left 22. AAP is projected to win just
one seat in Delhi and none elsewhere, at least in the states for which
details were available, which included all those with seven seats or
more.
…
regards
