Turan seeks peace..

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Concerned about Pakistan’s international isolation and faltering economy, the country’s powerful military has quietly reached out to its archrival India about resuming peace talks, but the response was tepid, according to Western diplomats and a senior Pakistani official.

The outreach, initiated by the army’s top commander, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, began months before Pakistan’s national elections. Pakistan offered to resume on-and-off talks with India over their border dispute in the Kashmir region, which stalled in 2015 as violence flared up there.

A key objective for Pakistan in reaching out to India is to open barriers to trade between the countries, which would give Pakistan more access to regional markets. Any eventual peace talks over Kashmir are likely to involve an increase in bilateral trade as a confidence-building measure.

Pakistan’s Military Has Quietly Reached Out to India for Talks

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53 Replies to “Turan seeks peace..”

  1. We should take ‘unnamed sources’ , ‘secret talks’, secret deals, etc with a pinch of salt. It may be an elaborate misinformation campaign. What is the point of so much secrecy ?

    My thumb rule , ignore what officials don’t say openly .

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  2. Think the China hand is heavy here. They know that there is no chance of them recovering their loans without Pakistan’s economy getting better.

    That being said, I dont think there will be much of a positive response from India. This is most likely a time buying tactic from the Pak Army, and the attacks against India will resume once Pakistan’s economy recovers.

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    1. There can be no peace unless both sides want it. Given that India is also approaching national elections next year and Modi likes to ratchet up anti-Pakistan and anti-Muslim rhetoric in order to consolidate Hindu votes, there is no chance of any dialogue until after the 2019 elections (when hopefully there will be a change of regime in Delhi).

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    1. That is somewhat expansive definition of Turan. Includes the bits of India and Pakistan south of the Wakhan corridor (Dardic country) which to me is the dividing line between (Northern) South Asia and Central Asia.

      Culturally as well, the people living just North of Kashmir were specifically called daradas (all the way to 13c) in Sanskrit literature and distinguished from turushkas.

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      1. yeah. i’m trying to be generous. but when i opened this post i thought i was going to be about central asia. it’s about pakistan. can zach just unliterally relabel geographies? 😉

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          1. to be fair, AnAn has a weirdly expansive definition of ‘arya.’ including semitic pagans (balbek) and all of se asia as well as scythians in europe i think?

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        1. I might be wrong but I believe its a reference to the self-conception of ancestry among some Pakistanis and among some Indians with regard to Muslims (with opposite valencies).

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  3. To take Kabir’s point forward i think we would see UPA3 in power in 5/10 years. This time around the communist will not sit out of the Govt. This will force a rethink on India opposition to both belt and road as well as CPEC. Coupling it with S-Indian/E-indian state parties(TMC,DMK) who have no issues with Pakistan/China unlike the BJP. I am already seeing whiff of change where many ex foreign secs of UPA’s time including India’s former NSA, are now writing that India should be part of either/both and leave the whole “CPEC is passing through our territory” behind.

    India will have egg on its face for this about turn but somehow our Nehruvian Foreign folks will even justify that. India supposed “spine” will have crumbled. Once the only major country which is opposing BRI too joins it, everyone else will fall in line too. India/Indians will also not have anything to say to SL,Pakistan since now they too will have become”rent seeking” country. That would lead to what Vikram said “most likely a time buying tactic from the Pak Army, and the attacks against India will resume once Pakistan’s economy recovers.” The only thing it will do in strengthen the BJP more since they were the only ones who will take a principled stand against not joining BRI /CPEC.

    The Cycle continues.

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  4. I read a very illuminating analysis of India-China relationship a few weeks ago. Basically it says that Indian strategic community has accepted Chinese supremacy and futility of trying to balance China, either alone or even with uncertain alliance with America. In the last four months, PM Modi has sought out meeting with Xinping 3 times in various internaational location aand directly conveyed through body language and messages that India accepts CHina as the borobhai in Asia.

    Chinese thinking is more inscrutable but China generally conveys that it doesn’t seek European style empires with crushing of rival states at near and abroad. It’s model is the traditional Chinese state model. As long as peripheral states (previously Vietnam, Korea, Thailand, Khemer etc kingdoms) acknowledge central position of Chinese state, they can go on minding their own businesses.

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      1. Its not just Trump. Chinese GDP is now 4 or 5 times larger than India and China is far ahead of India in technology. A rivalry with China doesn’t make sense for India.

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        1. “As long as peripheral states (previously Vietnam, Korea, Thailand, Khemer etc kingdoms) acknowledge central position of Chinese state, they can go on minding their own businesses.”

          The good old tributary system.

          Only thing i would add to your analysis is i see India’s current change as sort of holding operation till next elections ,and not a decisive shift of accepting chinese “borabhai”-ness at least in subcontinent . Modi is worried of any negative push from China/Pakistan which might impact his reelection chances. Thats why tempers are cooled down with Pak as well a bit, the rhetoric will increase closer to election against Pak. Once he is relected and if Americans can have some semblance of Foreign Policy I see India again re-alining with US and trying to size up China at least in Subcontinent and Indian Ocean. But for now India will mostly “give”.

          If he doesn’t get re elected than the forces who are not that opposed to China/Pakistan will come to power and a new game will start.

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  5. “China is far ahead of India in technology.”

    This is one of those truth by repetition type statements. It doesnt stand up to scrutiny.

    Intellectual property exports 2016:
    US : 125 billion $
    China: 1.2 billion $
    India: 0.5 billion $
    (Everyone, including Europe, pales in front of the US here.)

    Pharmaceutical exports 2016:
    India: 13 billion $
    China: 7 billion $

    IT services exports 2016:
    India: 54 billion $
    China: 26 billion $

    Refined petroleum exports 2012:
    India: 53 billion $
    China: 15 billion $

    Automobile exports 2012:
    India: 4.8 billion $
    China:4.5 billion $

    Petrochemicals (different from oil extraction), automobiles, pharmaceuticals, software services, are all high tech industries with significant value add, and where developed countries are keen to maintain an edge. India exceeds China in each of these.

    The industry that accounts for the gulf in exports between the two countries is the electronics industry. Here China leveraged its proximity to Japan, Taiwan and South Korea to first act as a low cost manufacturer, and then steadily move up the value chain.

    A second term for the BJP will most likely see serious tariffs on the imports of electronics, and the creation of an enabling environment for the manufacture of the same in India. China is preparing for this eventuality, and likely wants Pakistan to recover to a state where it can launch attacks in India again.

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    1. One of the constant refrains in this website is people put up random claims based on selective quoting. A review of the GDP of china and per capita GDP indicates a factor of 6 difference between China and India, and a factor of 5 in per capita GDP. The exports from china are 7 times larger than India.

      A visit to china indicates much more substantial progress in:
      Infrastructure (trains/highways/airports/ports)
      Technology (4G speed, mobile payments, use of email/text/chat/mobile pay together in a manner not seen in India)
      Industry (size and scale of plants)
      Agriculture (yield)

      Why these random posts? Is there any one person who buys off the idea that Indian exports are technologically more advanced than China? Even hardcore BJP people do not believe this nonsense. Anyone except Indians who believe that IVC expanded into Iranian from India? Why post these things and embarrass oneself?

      Razib does an excellent job monitoring responses and, of course, posts in GNXP. The quality here is, let us say, insubstantial

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      1. I am not sure what you are talking about. It is my post that has hard data rather than nonsensical ‘analysis’ based on ‘a visit to China’.

        If you dont want to engage with my comment, complain to the editors. But please spare me your inferiority complex spam.

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      2. Would appreciate it if this personal attack type comment is moderated. At the least, it can be posted as a separate comment rather than a reply to my original comment.

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        1. I too have noticed that a large percentage of Vijay’s (not Vijayvan; I have nothing against the good Vanbakkam sir) comments involve playing “legitimacy politics”, shaming tactics, and aggressively nudging moderators to censorship, the recentmost example being his intervention in Jaydeepsinh Rathod’s request to Zack and Razib for publication of a certain comment of his. It was one thing to disagree with Jaydeepsinh or judge it negatively (I myself found it speculative though an interesting speculation built on wide reading) but another thing to mischaracterize it as a mere “pastiche of a scientific work” (patently false), equate it to the way “fake science is spreading like wildfire in India,”, and ridiculously scare-monger “My fear is that someone will write “JR in Brown Pundits [1] shows that the Indo-Iranian origins of bla bla” without realizing that this is just a paragraph collection from selected essays.” This is really why I was happy that AnAn and Zack agreed to post his comment.

          For all the bitter disagreements I have had with Kabir, he usually doesn’t go beyond protesting when his feelings are hurt, and one can usually see where he is coming from even if one disagrees with him. For all the grief the poor fellow gets about policing, I don’t think his comments come anywhere near the vehemently forceful moderation-nudges of Vijay. I guess the more acceptable and fashionable your views are, you get more elbow-room to indulge in corrosive shame-politics to narrow the spectrum of acceptable opinion for delegitimizing the other side without any pretense of constructive engagement.

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          1. I actually think we sort of gang up against kabir Lot of pak bashing I see here is kind of unnecessary. For the longest time I felt Vijayvan and Vijay is the same guy

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          2. Hello froginthewell,

            I don’t want to make this about me but let me just thank you for being such a positive influence on me. I had also a streak of intolerance (and other vices like almost-stalking) which I also showcased in action at a point earlier, but interaction with you has made me mend my ways for the good.

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          3. Razib

            My name starts with an R. I just put in Vijay as a random name 25-30 years ago on the old internet boards.

            I just get a lot of pleasure crapping on the internet Hindu warriors. once you unroll that onion, you note that there is really nothing there.

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          4. @Saurav: This is not about Pak-bashing or India-bashing (enough of the latter happens too, why should we privilege or disprivilege avoidance of one over the other) but about attempts to shut down a view point by playing legitimacy politics and nudging moderators.

            P.S.: Santosh I am a bit confused unless you are sarcastic, since I have had my share of ugly flamewars here. I don’t consider myself tolerant at all.

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          5. Hello Razib Khan,

            That’s because of the things Sanskrit prefix vi- does to you.

            “Prefix to verbs or nouns and other parts of speech derived from verbs, to express division, distinction, distribution, arrangement, order, opposition, or deliberation.” according to Wiktionary.

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          6. Vijay,

            Thank the lord someone else gets that the Internet Hindu brigade is bloody annoying. Their obsession with bashing Pakistan and Islam is really getting quite pathetic.
            And now they have pretensions of being equal to China. Laughable.

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          7. Ayyayyo, no no, I was not being sarcastic at all! I was being as sincere as one can be. I was mainly having in mind an earlier intolerant comment of mine in which I lamented, undesirably aggressively, the publishing of what I considered to be a fringe view of Indo-European linguistics on the blog when a linguistics-related article from a non-standard viewpoint (perhaps reasonable though it does not seem to conform to Occam’s Razor) originally authored as a comment by the commentator Jaydeepsinh Rathod was published as a post. I was quick to change my colours like a chameleon (but I truly did change the colours wholeheartedly and quickly saw how unnecessarily aggressive I had been) when I began to interact with you on that comment thread though.

            And lol, I don’t consider you as intolerant in any manner at all. You are like one of the nicest, most respectful, and politest person even when being very straightforward (as and situations necessitate) I have interacted with. Sorry for my fangirling lol but I very much admire a lot of commentators on this blog.

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          8. Lol I messed up my own understanding of intolerance in my previous comment. I meant to say that I believe that froginthewell does not have tendencies to police others’ views which I personally consider as related to intolerance. (I might be very wrong though as I’m not a trained psychologist- not even an armchair one thanks to the Lord and for the good of the discipline!) I very well seem to have some natural tendencies to police with which I was born but I’m changing for the good thanks to the good people I have been fortunate to interact with in my life- both here and outside. Thank you all very much again.

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          9. Santosh, on any given issue we are all invested to different degrees. So someone’s view on a specific issue cannot lead to deductions about the extent of the person’s tolerance in general. You might have gotten a different impression had you seen some of the fringe views I have expressed earlier on BP or ugly flame wars I have participated in. But your self-criticism and willingness to change is admirable. Anyway this isn’t the open thread, so I stop.

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        2. Since Vikram commented based on my comment, I feel I need to respond. Vikram’s comment was very appropriate and constructive. One can dispute with the numbers with other numbers but I think its totally fine and is no way trying to muddy by deliberate falsehood.
          By the way, by technology I meant millitary technology. People generally agree that Chinese military tech has improved by leaps and bounds over the last fifteen years and has left India far behind. That conclusion is valid with even disregarding the Indian debacle with Multirole fighter Tejas program.

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        3. Claiming that the mass production of cheap knockoff drugs and tech coolies is sufficient evidence of India’s technological parity with China for people on this chat is also a personal attack on our intelligence and should be moderated.

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      3. “A review of the GDP of china and per capita GDP indicates a factor of 6 difference between China and India, and a factor of 5 in per capita GDP. The exports from china are 7 times larger than India.”

        In the number of patents filed (in fields like AI China does as well as US), the number of unicorns, the number of research papers published, defence industry and exports are all fields in addition to the semiconductor industry where mere comparison with India is laughable.

        Nevertheless, there is good reason to think the Chinese gdp is overstated by 1/3rd in the aggregate. So its a factor of 4 in gdp and 3 in gdp per capita in nominal terms (~2000 USD vs ~6000 USD). This is sufficiently large enough on its own that no additional exaggeration is necessary.

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        1. Most of the differential between India and China has opened up in the last 10-15 years.

          Indians just need to keep their heads down and work. Things will take care of themselves.

          A longer-term vision would help.

          Also, I welcome the recent tendency to compare ourselves against China as opposed to Pakistan, which our media is too fond of.

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      4. I totally agree. A lot of these people act like they know what they are talking about (especially when it comes to Pakistan), when they are frankly quite clueless.

        Comparing India to China is ridiculous. China doesn’t have a thing to worry about when it comes to India.

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  6. My own very personal opinion about India-China-Pakistan is that, if India clearly signals to China that it is not seeking to balance China either with America or anyone else, if India abandons its ambition of making Indian ocean an ‘Indian’ ocean, then China will be very accomodating to India being the regional superpower and big boss. I dislike that very much as a Bangladeshi but I think India and China cooperates far more than people generally think. I think over Bangladesh India and China do not have big differences. India generally agrees that China will have huge influence in Bnagladesh economy and financing (something that India cannot match) and China accepts that India will have very large influence in Bangladesh politics.

    China will retain Pakistan still as a client and satellite state even if India acquiesque to Chinese superiority but it will not favor Pakistani misadventures. I do not think as nations, China has much more favorable opinion of India than of Pakistan. Nobody in the world likes crazy Muslims and Pakistan has some of the world’s craziest Muslims in the world.

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    1. Nobody in the world likes crazy Muslims and Pakistan has some of the world’s craziest Muslims in the world.

      LOL.

      even pakistanis would agree with this! though some of them would say it with pride! on FIRE for allah (sometimes literally).

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    2. Sorry, I meant that China has significantly more favorable opinion of Indians than Pakistanis. I hope the meaning went accross even if I worded it very wrong.

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      1. read an article about chinese city in malaysia built for rich chinese where the guards are ghurka. cuz they don’t trust muslims to guard them but are OK with brownish hindus.

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        1. These kind of cultural perceptions matter will also matter in strategic sphere. Developing domestic constituency is important for international alliance. Unless you are like Saudi Arabia sitting on the bulk of the world reserve of ‘spice’, you cannot really afford being crazy asshole and still remain in long durable alliances.

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    3. I think what you said about “China will be very accommodating to India being the regional superpower and big boss” was true a decade back, but that might not necessary the case now. Why would China relinquish it considering its India’s mistakes which has allowed them a solid base now in S-Asia (Nepal, SL, Maldives) What you said is true for BD ,but i feel BD is probably a proper election away from turning whole sale towards China like the others. China has been trying to be part of all Subcontinental forums as a member and not just an Observer, which India opposes. Once China achieves that you will probably see a schism with India and its allies (Bhutan, BD) vs China and its allies(Pakistan,Maldives).

      “it will not favor Pakistani misadventures. I do not think as nations, China has much more favorable opinion of India than of Pakistan.”

      I think some nuance is in order. China does not want Pk misadventures in Xianyang but it does not necessarily have a stake with misadventures in AFG and India . Actually it helps China in sense it hampers both USA and India as vital resources of these countries are directed to fight that. For all this they just have to spend some energy in multi lateral forums like UN “shielding” Pakistan, that too which they don’t do sometimes. I would say its a good deal for China.

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  7. Zack, can you add this to the piece?:
    https://www.tolonews.com/afghanistan/tolonews-loses-two-its-journalists

    It appears that the “Taliban” attackers linked to we all know who with the help of we all know who attacked a wrestling gym in Qala-e-Nazer area in Kabul’s PD6. And then bombed the first responders in a second bombing, killing two of the most precious and dear journalists of Afghanistan.

    Apparently wrestling gyms are Haram according to Deep State GHQ supported and organized Jihadi Islamists. This will intensify anti Pakistani and anti Jihadi Islamist feelings among Afghans and around the world.

    We few at BP (commentators and readers alike) are not Pakistan’s best friends. We are Pakistan’s “ONLY” friends. We are the only ones pleading with the world to give the Pakistani Army and Imran Bhai a chance. The Chinese have turned strongly against Jihadi Islamist extremism. Even the Chinese don’t listen to us (Pakistan’s few remaining friends) anymore.

    China is forming a mountain brigade (about 4 thousand troops) of the Afghan National Army to fight Jihadi Islamist extremists, including Taliban (many of whom are Pakistani Punjabi, Arab, Chechen and Uighur) and Daesh in Badakshan Afghanistan. The Chinese have pledged $85 million to this brigade, although in the end the contribution will end up being a lot more I think. I also think that Chinese advisors will help the brigade.

    Unless the Pakistani Army changes course, they will end up killing Chinese soldiers and then “NO ONE” other than Allah can save them.

    Sad thing is that the Pakistani Army no longer controls her children, even though their ignorance, ego and pride blinds them to this fact. Her children truly believe in Islamist Jihadism and wold conquest and are willing to kill every general in GHQ to achieve it.

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    1. The Afghan Government asked China to help the Afghan National Army outside Badakshan province and China for the first time agreed.

      With China and India’s help the ANA (Afghan National Army) can’t be beat no matter how much support the Pakistani Army pours into the Taliban. How many thousands more “retired” Pakistani Army officers will Pakistan send to die in Afghanistan and the rest of the world? It is enough.

      Abhi, change ka time Aa rahaa Hai. Shant ka time Aa rahaa Hai. Yay Pakistani ka Zindabad hai!

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