Open Thread: AfPak – Cocktail 2

We are busy but we found this comment amusing:

“And who knows, in the distant future we can prop up Afghanistan like China does Pakistan.”

We are going to watch this in a few hours?

 

 

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0M-3
1 month ago

According to the former Taliban ambassador to Pakistan Mullah Abdul Salam Zaif, Pakistan tried three times to formalize the border during the Taliban rule in Afghanistan but it repeatedly received a negative response. The first time was when Mullah Abdul Raziq was appointed as the interior minister; the second time during the visit of Pakistan’s interior minister Moinuddin Haider to Kabul and Kandahar and the third time during the presidency of General Pervez Musharaf.7

The policy of securing the border has two objectives. One, a strong government in Afghanistan would be dangerous as it could try and recover Pakhtun territories lost to the Sikhs and inherited by Pakistan via the British. Therefore, Pakistan’s policy had to ensure a weak government in Kabul that was dependent on Pakistan. This would be the best guarantee against any revanchist posture.

The second objective is based on Pakistan’s perception about India. Pakistan views its relations with Afghanistan not merely in a bilateral context but in a South Asian context too coupled with the perceived relationship that the US has with India and Pakistan. A nightmare scenario for Pakistan would be for India to encourage the revanchist claims of a strong and friendly (towards India) Afghanistan. This Indo-Afghan alliance would catch Pakistan in a vice-like grip with a hostile India on the east and a hostile Afghanistan on the west. For this reason, Pakistan has determined that India must not be allowed any space in Afghanistan. Only a proxy government in Kabul, or a weak and dependent Afghan government that toes Pakistan’s line can ensure this.

-Pakistan: Courting the Abyss by Tilak Devasher

A strong or Independent Afghanistan will always act as an Indian proxy simply because of how the populations across the Durand line are distributed.

Kabir
1 month ago

This comment of mine was deleted on the Indus Waters Treaty post. It’s fine. The author has the right to moderate his posts the way he likes.

But I’m reproducing it here since it makes an important point regarding the “ceasefire”. I’m sorry to have to do this.

Thank you.

I had scrupulously avoided this thread until my name was mentioned.

I have no intention of commenting on any posts created by members of the “Saffroniate”.

However, I will not tolerate any comment that mentions my name or even refers to me obliquely. Those are major ceasefire violations and completely unacceptable to me.

Surely, there needs to be more to these people’s participation on BP than referendums on me?

If we completely avoid each other and stay in our lanes we should be fine.

The rules of the “ceasefire” clearly stipulate that those with whom I have “ceasefires” are not to refer to me in any manner–either directly or indirectly. In turn, I am not to refer to them.

There are no conditions on what I can or cannot post. If people are upset about the post on “Gender Statistics in India”, they need to deal. I don’t like it when unrest in Azad Kashmir is used to make anti-Pakistan points but I also have to deal with that.

Kabir
1 month ago
Reply to  Kabir

My father has a PHD from Stanford. My ancestors were educated even in the days of the Raj.

I write under my own name. I have had a book published in both India and Pakistan.

Kabir
1 month ago

“PM Shehbaz arrives in Switzerland for Iran-US talks”

https://www.dawn.com/news/2009504/pm-shehbaz-arrives-in-switzerland-for-iran-us-talks

The “Saffroniate” likes to make it seem like Pakistan is a failed state. However, they clearly aren’t accounting for how central it has become to diplomacy since the US-Iran war. The MoU itself is called the “Islamabad Memorandum”.

PM Shehbaz is accompanied by the Field Marshal.

Kabir
1 month ago

“Smokers’ Corner: The Rise of Civilizational States”

By Nadeem F. Paracha

https://www.dawn.com/news/2008986

Pakistan is gradually planting its foundational roots back in South Asia. The country’s military triumph against India in 2025, the rise of Hindu nationalism in India, and the manner in which Pakistan’s status recently surged in international relations, provided the state a sense of freedom to manoeuvre outside ideological rigidity and increasingly adopt pragmatism.

It has begun to construct a new national narrative that explains multicultural Pakistan as part of a chain of civilisations that emerged along the Indus, the country’s largest river. This means that Pakistan is ‘reclaiming’ these civilisations cut across 5,000 years.

India sees these civilisations as inherently ‘Hindu’, at least till the proper entry of Muslim dynasties in South Asia from the 13th century onwards. But India can’t ignore the fact that Indus civilisations are all located in what today is Pakistan.

NFP is a centrist Pakistani. “Smokers’ Corner” appears in DAWN every Sunday.

Kabir
1 month ago

“Soundscapes of Muharram”

By Mansoor Raza

https://www.dawn.com/news/2009513/soundscapes-of-muharram

Kabir
1 month ago

“Non-Fiction: Understanding Indian Music”

By Parvez Rahim

https://www.dawn.com/news/2008991/non-fiction-understanding-indian-music

My dad’s book A Modern Introduction to Indian Music and Other Essays: Including a Primer on Physics of Sound was reviewed in DAWN today.

Kabir
1 month ago

“Why criticism matters”

By Furqan

https://freakthoughts.substack.com/p/why-criticism-matters

Kabir
1 month ago
Reply to  X.T.M

They are not going to comment on my posts anyway.

I am happy to focus on Substack entirely where I don’t have to face toxicity and hostility.

Last edited 1 month ago by Kabir
Kabir
1 month ago
Reply to  X.T.M

If you want to marginalize me further, I’m happy to put my energies elsewhere entirely.

Your call.

BombayBadshah
BombayBadshah
1 month ago
Reply to  X.T.M

I thought it was over and there was a “cold peace” so interesting that it is still ongoing.

Other than that, India provided 5 tons of medical assistance to Afghanistan four days ago.

BombayBadshah
BombayBadshah
1 month ago
Reply to  X.T.M

What is happening in KPK is happening in KPK.

News covering it or not does not change it.

There is a reason the PSL was held behind closer doors in a handful of venues at the same time the “mediation” was going on.

Kabir
1 month ago
Reply to  X.T.M

Pakistan is a nuclear power. Afghanistan is not.

They need to wake up to that reality.

0M-3
1 month ago
Reply to  X.T.M

The Soviets were also a nuclear power of much greater sophistication when they invaded Afghanistan. Where are they now?

Last edited 1 month ago by 0M-3
BombayBadshah
BombayBadshah
1 month ago
Reply to  X.T.M

You have heard many times.

You just choose to ignore each time though.

0M-3
1 month ago
Reply to  X.T.M

dil ko behlane ke liye ghalib ye khayal acha hai

BombayBadshah
BombayBadshah
1 month ago
Reply to  X.T.M

Not really.

“World Mediator” changes nothing.

They were “world mediator” in 1971 a few months before India broke them into two.

If they are actually a “world mediator” let them get the world to do something about the IWT or Kashmir.

Surely should be a simple thing for a “world mediator”?

YYZ
YYZ
1 month ago
Reply to  X.T.M

> Saffroniate on whether Sindoor was a misadventure or not

It was a much needed step but the way Indians define – enemy and victory are wrong and until the basics are worked out, India will continue to get the ass whooping it did during and post Sindoor. War is not merely a kinetic act, its political.

I’m glad that it happened this way though, because the abrogation of IWT means some people in power are learning from mistakes.

Last edited 1 month ago by YYZ
RecoveringNewsJunkie
RecoveringNewsJunkie
1 month ago
Reply to  0M-3

Ukraine is not a nuclear power, Russia is.

Afghanistan can be just as effective a ‘costly nuisance’ to Pakistan, as Pakistan is being to India.

The logic is coldly rational. Understandable why Pakistani right-wingers would be frothing.

Last edited 1 month ago by RecoveringNewsJunkie
BombayBadshah
BombayBadshah
1 month ago
Reply to  X.T.M

Point is not that. Point is in giving a weaker state advanced military capabilities it does not have on its own so it can stand against a stronger state somewhat (like say Ukraine getting western assistance).

Despite “institutional coherence” Pakistan does not have native capabilities for manufacturing jets, air defense etc which China provides for them.

Similarly as India further indigenizes its MIC, its capacity for “assistance” increases.

No one is talking about making Afghanistan a prosperous state.

BombayBadshah
BombayBadshah
1 month ago
Reply to  X.T.M

They didn’t join Iran either.

Most countries in the world don’t join wars fought between other countries.

Kabir
1 month ago

Love is in the air between Americans and Pakistanis here in Buergenstock. Vance said “What’s up man?” as he greeted Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir and gave him a hug. “My brother,” Munir said as he reached out to Witkoff and embraced him.

https://www.dawn.com/live/iran-israel-war#2009731

Kabir
1 month ago

Vance expresses appreciation for Field Marshal Munir

He also appreciated CDF Asim Munir, saying he had joked since his reception in Islamabad earlier this year that “I have two very, very important people in my life: an Indian and a Pakistani. The Indian is my wife, and the Pakistani is Field Marshal Munir.”

“I’ve probably talked to Field Marshal Munir more than I’ve talked to anybody else over the last three months,” he added. “He is of course a great military leader but I think he’s shown himself to be a great diplomat.”

https://www.dawn.com/live/iran-israel-war#2009736

S Qureishi
S Qureishi
1 month ago
Reply to  X.T.M

I would not be suprised to see US imposing sanctions on India, perhaps even a blockade during the upcoming Sindoor 2.

US think tanks and establishment in general have become very hawkish on India since they have concluded that Indians cannot let go of their British colonial hangover and will always be a hostile entity to the West.

YYZ
YYZ
1 month ago

Dafuc is this? Bollywood is still running the black money laundromat, LMAO.

0M-3
1 month ago

The issue with Indian podcasting is that it has some really intelligent podcast hosts who have to cater to some of the dumbest audiences globally. Even guys like beerbiceps are really intelligent as individuals but they end up making podcasts about ghosts and astrology because that’s what the audience demands.

This is why some of the most interesting podcasts in India are the ones no one has heard about like the Seen and the Unseen by Amit Varma.

Naam de Guerre
Naam de Guerre
1 month ago
Reply to  0M-3

I get your point but I feel Amit Varma is too far up his own ass sometimes. 6 hour podcasts where he is rambling for 2 hours about being a libertarian. Still, one of the better ones. Personally, I had ‘devolved’ to listening Teen Taal by Aaj Tak Radio purely because it doesn’t take itself too seriously and because Kamlesh “Tau” is someone I respect. Unfortunately they are now so popular they’ve become very commercial.

Nothing beats the absolute tragedy that is Smita Prakash though. I say this as a somewhat Right-of-Centre Indian.

0M-3
1 month ago
Reply to  Naam de Guerre

I do agree with you on that. Amit is a bit too vocal about his own political beliefs and tends to ramble a lot. But there’s a reason I still go keep coming back to his podcast because its in depth coverage of specific issues. I do like to listen to Kamlesh “Tau” but the issue is Teen Taal feels too current affairs based and not a deep dive on any specific issue I’m interested in. So it becomes difficult for me to justify listening to an entire episode.

As for Smita Prakash, she’s okay in certain podcasts but below par in others. Regardless, ANI has become what NDTV used to be during the UPA rule. They’ve got the best access and most reporters on the ground. So I can’t be too mad at the decline in quality when you look at the quantity of content they’re releasing everyday.

Last edited 1 month ago by 0M-3
Naam de Guerre
Naam de Guerre
1 month ago
Reply to  0M-3

Agree that ANI perhaps has the most access but I just expect better quality output.

On a slightly tangential note – the relative lack of intellectualism within the current BJP fold is quite obvious and off-putting. I still don’t understand why a stalwart like Shourie was sidelined. Perhaps because Modi wanted only yes men around him.

Agni
Editor
1 month ago
Reply to  Naam de Guerre

+1 on ANI.

Shourie was seen as opportunistic. Sidelined party in 2009 but cosied up post 2014. Didn’t sit well with the party. He subsequently got bitter, but his contribution intellectually is immense undoubtedly.

Frankly, we’ve swapped one ecosystem for another. Whether for the better or not remains to be seen.

Naam de Guerre
Naam de Guerre
1 month ago
Reply to  Agni

Shourie was seen as opportunistic. Sidelined party in 2009 but cosied up post 2014. Didn’t sit well with the party. He subsequently got bitter, but his contribution intellectually is immense undoubtedly.

I would respect this framing but then the BJP has inducted a veritable glut of politicians from across the aisle who’ve said the nastiest things about not just the BJP and RSS but also Hinduism. Their most visible intellectual is Sanyal and while i don’t personally have anything against him, he is far from the heavy-weight that Shourie was. Even Swapan Dasgupta is largely relegated to a regional role. Are we supposed to put up with Ram Madhav lol. Frankly they seem to have no vision of developing a non-left intellectual movement which is why I see this collapsing quite quickly once the BJP loses power.

Frankly, we’ve swapped one ecosystem for another. Whether for the better or not remains to be seen.

Agree. Personally, Modi 3 is starting to feel like UPA II perhaps partly because of this ecosystem. They decision makers are completely detached from reality. What, otherwise, explains the complete apathy and clown-show that has been the NTA and ethanol-blending policy.

Agni
Editor
1 month ago
Reply to  Naam de Guerre

+1

Sanyal and Ram Madhav are “lite intellectuals” who stay within their lanes. Never a good thing if one wants to stem sycophancy.

I do agree with your assessment of Modi. The only ones who did speak their mind included Parrikar, Swaraj and Jaitley. All are gone unfortunately. Only Sitharaman remains I guess.

The veritable Yogi pretty much told off the MS jodi that he was more than happy to wreck the UP BJP if he was sidelined (per the grapevine). More power to him 🙂

0M-3
1 month ago
Reply to  Naam de Guerre

Personally, I think the govt is completely right about the Ethanol-blending policy. People are hating on Gadkari and Sitharaman for no good reason. Sitharaman has already given relief to many by increasing the income tax slabs and the only problem with the recent budget which was the tax on capital gains on govt bonds that was reduced because of this crisis. Gadkari has been decent in the highway and expressway construction and the recent oil crisis proved that ethanol blending was clearly necessary. The only thing that could be improved would be the communication with the public.

At the end of the day we can all complain about this feeling like UPA 2 but the reality is that they’re still consistently winning elections and don’t seem to be weakening. If the delimitation bill goes through the parliament as it seems like it might we might be having BJP govt for the foreseeable future.

Last edited 1 month ago by 0M-3
YYZ
YYZ
1 month ago
Reply to  0M-3

Amit Varma is a dumb fuck. He has read a couple of books though, which is 2 more than every other Indian podcaster.

Kabir
1 month ago

“Unloved and lacking a ‘guiding light’, UK’s Starmer quits after just two years as prime minister”

https://www.dawn.com/news/2009994/unloved-and-lacking-a-guiding-light-uks-starmer-quits-after-just-two-years-as-prime-minister

Agni
Editor
1 month ago
Reply to  X.T.M

Count Binface has a non-zero probability of being PM 😀

Kabir
1 month ago

Here’s an issue that both India and Pakistan need to focus on:

“How India’s heatwaves are shutting schools–and pushing women out of the workforce”

By Arsalan Bukhari and Naila Tabbasum

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/jun/22/how-india-heatwaves-shutting-schools-pushing-women-out-of-the-workforce

formerly brown
formerly brown
1 month ago

This is from an iranian. The author says that they should rather mourn fall of Persia, 1400 years ago to Islam ,through the treachery of Salman Farsi, than the karbala masaacre.

https://www.threads.com/@parisam0r/post/DZ4GlI2gYHn?xmt=AQG0CofgOuPQPcRN0egj7RbEvLKUdgNDJSj2pB4DINTVhU2-dizmLrQfGNYHQC7RVnho7K2G&slof=1

S Qureishi
S Qureishi
1 month ago
Reply to  formerly brown

At this point, it’s safe to assume that none of these are actually Iranians but Americans or Mossad agents from Unit 8200

Meanwhile Iranian football team is like:

https://x.com/AaronBastani/status/2068803301831819419?s=20

formerly brown
formerly brown
1 month ago
Reply to  X.T.M

Sold out to Arabs.

formerly brown
formerly brown
1 month ago
Reply to  X.T.M

I had read a wry request from an iranian to Arabs. ” next time you invent a religion, please, Keep it to yourselves “!?

Agni
Editor
1 month ago
Reply to  formerly brown

A sentiment echoed by all the Iranians I know.

0M-3
1 month ago
Reply to  Agni

Diaspor-oids are a crazy bunch and should be taken with hefty grains of salt.

Kabir
1 month ago

“Indus waters wars”

By Hassan Abbas

https://www.dawn.com/news/2010433/indus-water-wars

The writer is an expert on hydrology and water resources

The immediate response to India’s water aggression should be based on legal encirclement across four forums to deter unilateralism and protect civilians. It requires invoking the IWT’s Article IX to establish a Court of Arbitration under Annexure G and to argue that designs that prevent flows violate Article III (2). Remedies sought should include a declaration of breach, an order to maintain the status quo, and compensation.

An Article 15 communication should be filed with the International Criminal Cou­rt prosecutor. The Rome Statute Article 8(2)(b)(xxv) criminalises “intentionally using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare by depriving them of objects indispensable to survival, including water”. Pakistan should assert that the denial of water will directly threaten survival. A case must also be filed with the Inter­nat­io­nal Court of Justice based on the 1997 UN Watercourses Convention, international customary law/ precedents and the Berlin Rules, seeking pro­visio­n­­al measures under Article 41 of the ICJ statute to or­­d­er both states to av­­oid diversion du­­­r­­ing adjudicat­i­­on, thus framing the issue as general int­­ernational law, not just a bilateral matter.

Water is linked to the right to life, food and health under ICCPR Article 6 and ICESCR Article 11. This should be leveraged by showing the UN Human Rights Council how reduced flows displace rural communities and increase disease risk. The UNHRC’s Special Procedures and Universal Periodic Review can mandate fact-finding and recommendations, focusing attention on the humanitarian impact. Briefly, this legal encirclement should aim for treaty compliance at the Court of Arbitration, individual accountability at the ICC, state responsibility at the ICJ and human rights protection at the UNHRC.

RecoveringNewsJunkie
1 month ago
Reply to  Kabir

Just that, back then, there was…….less coddling of such silliness.

https://www.brownpundits.com/2020/04/18/hindus-are-the-most-authentic-indians/

Admin Note: RNJ old comment, which we have reposted here to avoid ceasefire violation.

Sensationalist ‘combating’ against India on the IWT dispute may get Pakistani rah-rah clapping, but the bottomline remains that its a dispute, and Pakistan’s attempts at seizing the ‘victim’ high ground are unlikely to get nearly as much traction as the home audience likes to believe.

The chickens of anti-India hostility are coming home to roost for the Pakistani state. This reminds me of the 1965 Ind-Pak conflict, where Pakistan cooked up and attempted ‘Op Gibraltar’, but then was “surprised” with the way India responded against the incursion by opening up conflict along the Ind-Pak border. Similarly Pak was yet again ‘surprised’ in Kargil when the Indian response of artillery and air force managed to push the PakMil incursion back.

Deploying years and decades of ‘non-state actors’, and consistent hostility, has eventually resulted in the Indian government issuing multiple warnings on the IWT over the last decade. And no matter how much PR ‘noise’ Pakistan manages to make over the IWT, the blunt geographic – and geopolitical, reality of upper vs lower riparian disputes remain what they are.

Pakistan had an 80/20 split of the waters in the IWT, and managed to ruin it. They only have themselves to blame for ‘jihading’ Indian public opinion and creating a consensus west of the Radcliffe line against accommodating Pakistani concerns.

When you initiate hostilities against an opponent, they are likely to respond in ways that you may not have expected, and will be inconvenient to you. That is why, national policy should never be surrendered to inept and short-sighted interest groups such as been the case in Pakistan.

Kabir
1 month ago
Reply to  X.T.M

All that that link proves is that Razib was personally nasty to me (and to other people as well).

Razib’s problem with me was that he thought I was too “woke”. It’s interesting that for some people I’m too “woke” and for others I’m an “Islamist”.

Anyway, Razib had his own moderation style–for better or worse. If such a moderation style were to be adopted again, I would simply leave. It’s not 6 years ago. I will never put up with even the slightest amount of personal disrespect.

Kabir
1 month ago
Reply to  X.T.M

The treaty cannot be placed in “abeyance”– no matter what one side thinks.

Pakistan will be fighting this in each and every court of law available to us.

Also, we have repeatedly stated that any attempt to turn off our water will be considered an act of war and will be met with full force.

Don’t underestimate a nuclear-armed country of 250 million people.

formerly brown
formerly brown
1 month ago
Reply to  Kabir

Just for discussion, you have 200 bombs and if all them are dropped, how many of us will be killed? 200 lakhs? Or is it 2000 lakhs? I. E 20crores?
That leaves us with 120 crores with one less headache.
If kwaja asif and company go on saber rattling, there is a good chance that someone will press the button from India and scratch his head saying “galti se mistik hogaya Saab “.

Remember there was a dud brahmos which penetrated a few years ago, followed by much handwringing.

Kabir
1 month ago
Reply to  formerly brown

If there is an existential threat to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the nukes come into play.

We have repeatedly made this clear.

“Someone will press the button from India”. Just try it.

You guys need to realize that nothing and no one is above the national security of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

Pak Fauj is not playing.

I don’t think your leaders actually want to test a nuclear armed state. Not if they have any rationality left.

If we are under an existential threat, we will go down but we will take India down with us.

Last edited 1 month ago by Kabir
Kabir
1 month ago
Reply to  X.T.M

Look, making decisions about nuclear war is way above my paygrade.

But our doctrine is very clear. Pakistan’s territorial integrity is a red line.

I am not advocating for nuclear war. I’m saying India should not test Pakistan. Both sides need to exhibit rationality.

You want to allow the “Saffroniate” to abuse me? Then I will simply leave entirely.

It’s your call. I am not going to put up with the slightest amount of disrespect or passive aggression from anyone.

Last edited 1 month ago by Kabir
0M-3
1 month ago
Reply to  X.T.M

Ok so according to some people on this website Pakistan is just going to force India to adhere to the treaty that it doesn’t care about because a bunch of international courts it doesn’t recognize have adjudicated that it should do that. The ICJ, ICC, UNHRC, and CoA judgements can be easily ignored by India and none of these courts have an enforcement mechanism to force India to adhere to treaty again.

It is unlikely that Pakistan will be able to get a UN sanction on India even if India starts blocking off and redirecting large volumes of the Indus. At the end of the day the treaty stayed in place because both parties believed that it was a good thing to keep around. Water based treaties work because all sides believe that a fair and equitable distribution of the water has been achieved through it and any disputes can be resolved within the confines of the treaty. The moment that stops being true any side with leverage will work to undermine it and leading eventually to its demise.

If we look at other precedents on water based treaties like in the case of Egypt-Ethiopia, or Turkey-Iraq we will find that the upper riparian state will often just get their way and no action from the lower riparian is able to stop the upper riparian. In the case of Egypt-Ethiopia, Ethiopia was barred from funding from international banks for its GERD dam which was clearly against the previous treaty on water distribution of the Nile. Egypt is even an American ally so even with US intervention on this issue Ethiopia was barely deterred. If we look at Turkey’s projects on the Euphrates and Tigris have cause severe water shortages in Iraq and no international actor has been able to do anything regarding those actions.

RecoveringNewsJunkie
RecoveringNewsJunkie
1 month ago
Reply to  0M-3

yep, that was the point I was making – Pakistani news coverage seems to be self-congratulatory in braggadocio about what lawfare it can try, but all of it amounts to feckless ‘protesting’ at best.

Brown Pundits
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