Geopolitics, security and conflict
Inter-state relations, wars, militaries and world affairs.
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Geography Is Not Power
India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty believing the upstream power holds the tap. It does not. From the Indus to the Nile, the country at the top of the river…
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Indus Water Treaty: What lies in the future?
The author sets out the main disputes over the Indus Waters Treaty now held in abeyance: dispute-resolution forums, water distribution and dam design. Argues Pakistan’s deeper problem is population growth,…
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Open Trade: Peace Deal Reached
A one-line note on the oil price falling after Pakistan announced a US-Iran deal, asking who won, lost or drew, with peace reached on Trump’s 80th birthday.
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Open Thread: India, Israel, US & Iran
An open thread asking what has happened in the Middle East over the past six weeks, and whether India-US relations have become shakier.
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Review: Pakistan: Courting the Abyss by Tilak Devasher, a 10 year retrospective
A ten-year retrospective on Tilak Devasher’s Pakistan: Courting the Abyss, comparing its projections with current figures on the army, economy, population and water. The reviewer judges the book’s trajectories largely…
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India’s Wealth will not turn Pakistan into East Germany
X.T.M answers a commenter’s per-capita point: scale and per-capita income measure different things, and India’s size gives it weight. But economic weight is not destiny, India has not turned Pakistan…
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Open thread
An open thread opening with the 24 May 2026 vehicle bombing in Quetta, claimed by the Balochistan Liberation Army, which killed at least 24, and the writer’s criticism of how…
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The Diaspora Saved The Mullahs. Pahlavi Helped.
X.T.M reports a BP live call with an Iranian guest, Farhad, who argues Reza Pahlavi’s 2022 intervention saved the Islamic Republic. The post says it does not endorse this and…
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Return of the King
A commenter announces his return from a self-imposed break, saying he will argue less in the comments and, borrowing the film Dhurandhar’s imagery, take a quieter supporting role.
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The Prussia of the Ummah
Building on RNJ’s comment that Munir’s consolidation makes a second Pahalgam unlikely, the post argues Pakistan’s army-led settlement is not a pause before collapse but a durable hybrid regime, ‘the…
