A decade back, More people were dying every month in militancy-countermilitancy associated violence in J&K than there are now in entire year! Total casualties have fallen to the level when militancy began (1988-89) and unlike the bad old days, most casualties nowadays are of the militants (and not civilians).
‘ |
Incidents
|
Civilians
|
Security Force Personnel
|
Terrorists
|
Total
|
1988
|
390
|
29
|
1
|
1
|
31
|
1989
|
2154
|
79
|
13
|
0
|
92
|
1990
|
3905
|
862
|
132
|
183
|
1177
|
1991
|
3122
|
594
|
185
|
614
|
1393
|
1992
|
4971
|
859
|
177
|
873
|
1909
|
1993
|
4457
|
1023
|
216
|
1328
|
2567
|
1994
|
4484
|
1012
|
236
|
1651
|
2899
|
1995
|
4479
|
1161
|
297
|
1338
|
2796
|
1996
|
4224
|
1333
|
376
|
1194
|
2903
|
1997
|
3004
|
840
|
355
|
1177
|
2372
|
1998
|
2993
|
877
|
339
|
1045
|
2261
|
1999
|
2938
|
799
|
555
|
1184
|
2538
|
2000
|
2835
|
842
|
638
|
1808
|
3288
|
2001
|
3278
|
1067
|
590
|
2850
|
4507
|
2002
|
NA
|
839
|
469
|
1714
|
3022
|
2003
|
NA
|
658
|
338
|
1546
|
2542
|
2004
|
NA
|
534
|
325
|
951
|
1810
|
2005
|
NA
|
521
|
218
|
1000
|
1739
|
2006
|
NA
|
349
|
168
|
599
|
1116
|
2007
|
NA
|
164
|
121
|
492
|
777
|
2008
|
NA
|
69
|
90
|
382
|
541
|
2009
|
NA
|
55 |
78 |
242 |
375 |
2010
|
NA
|
36
|
69
|
270
|
375
|
2011
|
NA
|
34
|
30
|
119
|
183
|
2012
|
NA
|
16
|
17
|
84
|
117
|
2013
|
NA
|
20
|
61
|
100
|
181
|
2014
|
NA
|
10
|
16
|
42
|
68
|
Total*
|
47234 |
14682 |
6110 |
22787 |
43579 |
*Data till June 22,
2014 (Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal)
2014 (Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal)
In an
ideal scenario, end of militant violence ought to be followed by
demilitarisation and a political settlement with the weakened militant
elements. The script has been played out in Bodoland, Nagaland and Mizoram with
decent results (though inter-ethnic/tribal violence is yet end in Nagaland and
Bodoland). There has indeed been less visible military presence in Valley’s cities. But, right now, prospects of complete demilitarisation or any significant ‘drawdown’ from Valley’s internal cities seem
dim for several reasons:
ideal scenario, end of militant violence ought to be followed by
demilitarisation and a political settlement with the weakened militant
elements. The script has been played out in Bodoland, Nagaland and Mizoram with
decent results (though inter-ethnic/tribal violence is yet end in Nagaland and
Bodoland). There has indeed been less visible military presence in Valley’s cities. But, right now, prospects of complete demilitarisation or any significant ‘drawdown’ from Valley’s internal cities seem
dim for several reasons:
- Elections and a cautious
Indian State:
Kashmir Valley recorded the lowest regional turnout in Indian
Parliamentary elections. Barring Kupwara district and a few Shia/Gujjar
dominated pockets; Separatists largely succeeded in ensuring a boycott in
Valley- at places (Srinagar’s Bemian, Sopore) through genuine sympathy for
Hurriyat’s call; and at other places (rural South Kashmir) through
assassination of Panches & creating a fear-psychosis. This has been a slap on the face for Indian State. Now, the State assembly elections are
due later this year. Usually, State and Panchayat (unlike National)
elections, record decent turnout in Valley. Given the ignominy faced in
Parliamentary polls, Indian state would not like to do anything radical,
that holds the potential to spoil the state elections (and discredit
itself further). - BJP in Centre: With BJP in Power, even Article 370, is no longer a holy cow.
Defence Minister Jaitley has already made trips to Srinagar,
mainly to assess the Security preparedness against Terrorist
threats. Modi will do the same in early July. - Kashmiri Pandit Repatriation:
There have been some
overtures by Central and State Government, for resettling Kashmiri Pandits
in Valley. Whether these overtures materialise or not, talk for the same
means there will have to be Central security forces in valley to reassure
Pandit community. - Af-Pak muddle next door and
ISIL, Al-Shabab, Boko-Haram adventures in far off lands: Requires no further elaboration.
There is
little doubt that in past, Central Governments in Delhi have acted in a
autocratic manner (spark for insurgency itself was started by a rigged state
assembly election in 1987) and there exists a really huge and horrible laundry
list of rights violation by the security forces stationed there with virtually
no convictions. At times, Kashmiri students have also been attacked by their
hypernationalist college mates in North India.
little doubt that in past, Central Governments in Delhi have acted in a
autocratic manner (spark for insurgency itself was started by a rigged state
assembly election in 1987) and there exists a really huge and horrible laundry
list of rights violation by the security forces stationed there with virtually
no convictions. At times, Kashmiri students have also been attacked by their
hypernationalist college mates in North India.
Having
said that, It has to be recognised that (unlike her esteemed neighbors) as of
today; Kashmir is free of polio, and (unlike Syrians, Afghans, Sri Lanka’s
Tamilians and Pakistan’s Ahmedis/Shias) Kashmiris are not jumping onto
overcrowded boats in Indian ocean or crossing over to neighboring countries for
political or religious asylum (infact many
who did cross LoC, at peak of militancy, now wish to return home).
Nor do Kashmiris go around blowing themselves in mainland Indian cities. Also
despite out-migration of Valley’s Pandits and multiple attacks by separatist
militants in Jammu’s temples and pilgrims in past, by and large, Jammu region’s
communal harmony has been retained (leaving aside 1947 killings). Things could have been a lot worse. Credit (be it
to the local culture or the Security forces) must be given, where it is due.
said that, It has to be recognised that (unlike her esteemed neighbors) as of
today; Kashmir is free of polio, and (unlike Syrians, Afghans, Sri Lanka’s
Tamilians and Pakistan’s Ahmedis/Shias) Kashmiris are not jumping onto
overcrowded boats in Indian ocean or crossing over to neighboring countries for
political or religious asylum (infact many
who did cross LoC, at peak of militancy, now wish to return home).
Nor do Kashmiris go around blowing themselves in mainland Indian cities. Also
despite out-migration of Valley’s Pandits and multiple attacks by separatist
militants in Jammu’s temples and pilgrims in past, by and large, Jammu region’s
communal harmony has been retained (leaving aside 1947 killings). Things could have been a lot worse. Credit (be it
to the local culture or the Security forces) must be given, where it is due.
Or is it a case of Confirmation Bias? I am
no longer in immediate demilitarisation camp
no longer in immediate demilitarisation camp
A year
back, I would have backed complete demilitarisation of Valley and handing law
and order entirely to Local Police. But events in Iraq, Nigeria and Pakistan
have turned me into an agnostic inclined towards holding one’s ground. Given the existing popular disenchantment amongst
the Sunni Kashmiri majority and presence of significant Islamist firepower in region; there
is a very realistic chance of many a cities
falling into the hands of Islamist militants as soon as Central
military/para-military forces withdraws- assuming here that J&K State
police is no better than State Police elsewhere in India and like Iraq- if push
comes to the shove, Police may very well switch sides or simply run away.
back, I would have backed complete demilitarisation of Valley and handing law
and order entirely to Local Police. But events in Iraq, Nigeria and Pakistan
have turned me into an agnostic inclined towards holding one’s ground. Given the existing popular disenchantment amongst
the Sunni Kashmiri majority and presence of significant Islamist firepower in region; there
is a very realistic chance of many a cities
falling into the hands of Islamist militants as soon as Central
military/para-military forces withdraws- assuming here that J&K State
police is no better than State Police elsewhere in India and like Iraq- if push
comes to the shove, Police may very well switch sides or simply run away.
This, in my view, will
not be followed by any dawn of Azadi. Instead like Waziristan, Northern Sri Lanka, and now Tikrit; Fighter Jets and heavy artillery may end up bombing the
entire place to retake cities, causing major civilian casualties and mass
migrations. Kashmiri separatists, even with Pakistani assistance, are too small a lot to defeat India by force. How all of this will impact with Jammu’s (if not rest of India’s)
multireligious settlements is anybody’s guess. What looks certain is that, end
result could very well be far far worse than the present ground situation and
would take decades to heal. For long-lasting peace and prosperity in Kashmir Valley, A popular
political reconciliation/settlement in a hate free environment has to be the
goal; but at the moment, priority, has to be not allowing Kashmir to descend into
a Syria/Afghan level hellhole.
not be followed by any dawn of Azadi. Instead like Waziristan, Northern Sri Lanka, and now Tikrit; Fighter Jets and heavy artillery may end up bombing the
entire place to retake cities, causing major civilian casualties and mass
migrations. Kashmiri separatists, even with Pakistani assistance, are too small a lot to defeat India by force. How all of this will impact with Jammu’s (if not rest of India’s)
multireligious settlements is anybody’s guess. What looks certain is that, end
result could very well be far far worse than the present ground situation and
would take decades to heal. For long-lasting peace and prosperity in Kashmir Valley, A popular
political reconciliation/settlement in a hate free environment has to be the
goal; but at the moment, priority, has to be not allowing Kashmir to descend into
a Syria/Afghan level hellhole.