Moopanars for Modi?

Journalism by talking to a taxi driver…nevertheless it is interesting that BJP support has crossed 10% in Tamil Nadu. I would imagine people who used to vote for Congress would not mind switching over to the BJP. The situation is similar to Kerala where the BJP can only win if the dominance of the Left declines and if  the powerful Nair Service Society (NSS) and Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) join hands to keep the hindu vote united.  

One interesting thing to keep a check on- as recounted in the anecdote below-  people may choose to vote differently depending on whether it is a national or a state election. If Congress implodes and BJP becomes the default national party then it can even win the votes of minorities. 

Thanjavur district
is the home of the Cauvery delta region and is the rice-bowl of Tamil
Nadu. The river and the fertile fields nourished Carnatic music,
particularly in the 18th and 19th centuries, when
the celebrated trinity of Saint Thyagaraja (1767-1847) and his
contemporaries, Muthuswami Dikshitar and Shyama Sastri, held sway.
Those
were the days when civilization was river-based. Things have changed
since, and, today, Chennai is the Mecca of Carnatic music. The district,
more particularly, Tiruvaiyaru, 15 kms from Thanjavur city, still
reverberates with the sounds of Carnatic music for five days in a year,
when it hosts the internationally-famous Sri Thyagaraja Aradhana, to
commemorate the death anniversary of Saint Thyagaraja.
The Saint passed away 167 years ago, on Pushya Bahula Panchami. Pushya is the name of the month in the lunar calendar. Bahula is the dark or the second fortnight, while Panchami
is the fifth day of the waning moon, according to the Hindu almanac.
Translated into the Gregorian calendar, which we follow now, the
Aradhana date varies from year to year, though not the month.
I was in Tiruvaiyaru for the Aradhana—as I have been doing for the last decade or so—this time from 17th to 22nd
January. I mostly attend the evening concerts, which leaves me free
time in the mornings. Thanjavur district is also famous for its temples,
with Kumbakonam being the hub for most of the famous Shaiva and
Vaishnava shrines, besides those dedicated to the Navagrahas, the nine planets. I, therefore, took the opportunity on one of the days to visit a few temples.
The
region is also the strong-hold of the Moopanars, the land-owning caste.
The late G.K. Moopanar was the most famous among them. Traditionally
Congress, the Moopanars are proud of Mr. Moopanar and equally so about
his son, Mr. G.K. Vasan, a union minister now. In fact, the family is
well-known for its public service and is the main patron of Sri
Thiyagabrahma Mahotsava Sabha, the body that organizes Sri Thyagaraja
Aradhana. Mr. Moopanar was its president until his death, and the post
is now held by his brother, Mr. G.R. Moopanar.
Our cab driver too
was a Moopanar, without much land, though. “My grandfather squandered
the 32 acres that we once owned,” he confessed. Our driver was a
talkative man: so am I.  Would he vote for the Congress, I asked. “No
way. Modi,” he replied. It was his opinion, I opined. It is the opinion
of most people here, he countered. “Jayalalithaa wants her partymen to
ensure that the AIADMK won all the 39 seats to the Lok Sabha,” I
reminded him. “This is not an assembly election,” he responded. “It is
for the prime minister and we want Modi as pm. Did you see the crowds at
Modi’s Tiruchi rally? My car couldn’t enter the city that day.”  He
could be right. An opinion poll conducted by Junior Vikatan, a political journal belonging to the Vikatan group, published a survey which showed that about forty per cent of those interviewed said they would vote for Modi.
According
to the survey, the AIADMK could get thirty percent, the DMK and the
others the remaining thirty per cent. Another poll has put the BJP vote
at a modest 17 per cent. The BJP is trying to woo the DMDK of Vijayakant
to cobble together a non-AIADMK, non-DMK third front. The DMDK is being
wooed by the DMK too, but the party’s vote has shrunk badly and only
three per cent are inclined to vote for it, according to pollsters.
Back
in my hotel, I asked the room boy whom he would vote for. DMK, he
replied. But wasn’t this an election for parliament, I asked him. “Yes,
but my family always votes for the DMK,” he replied. As his reply shows,
the traditional DMK base is intact.
– See more at: http://www.theindianrepublic.com/tbp/modi-favourite-tamil-rural-heartland-100024490.html/99#sthash.Kd6UM2P7.dpuf

Thanjavur district is the home of
the Cauvery delta region and is the rice-bowl of Tamil Nadu. The river and the
fertile fields nourished Carnatic music, particularly in the 18th and 19th
centuries, when the celebrated trinity of Saint Thyagaraja (1767-1847) and his
contemporaries, Muthuswami Dikshitar and Shyama Sastri, held sway.
…The district, more particularly, Tiruvaiyaru, 15
kms from Thanjavur city, still reverberates with the sounds of Carnatic music for
five days in a year, when it hosts the internationally-famous Sri Thyagaraja
Aradhana, to commemorate the death anniversary of Saint Thyagaraja.

I was in Tiruvaiyaru for the
Aradhana—as I have been doing for the last decade or so—this time from 17th
to 22nd January. I mostly attend the evening concerts, which leaves
me free time in the mornings. Thanjavur district is also famous for its
temples, with Kumbakonam being the hub for most of the famous Shaiva and
Vaishnava shrines, besides those dedicated to the Navagrahas, the nine
planets. I, therefore, took the opportunity on one of the days to visit a few
temples.

The region is also the strong-hold
of the Moopanars, the land-owning caste.
The late G.K. Moopanar was the most
famous among them. Traditionally Congress, the Moopanars are proud of Mr.
Moopanar and equally so about his son, Mr. G.K. Vasan, a union minister now. In
fact, the family is well-known for its public service and is the main patron of
Sri Thiyagabrahma Mahotsava Sabha, the body that organizes Sri Thyagaraja
Aradhana. Mr. Moopanar was its president until his death, and the post is now held
by his brother, Mr. G.R. Moopanar.

Our cab driver too was a Moopanar,
without much land, though. “My grandfather squandered the 32 acres that we once
owned,” he confessed. Our driver was a talkative man: so am I.  Would he
vote for the Congress, I asked. “No way. Modi,” he replied. It was his opinion,
I opined. It is the opinion of most people here, he countered. 
“Jayalalithaa
wants her partymen to ensure that the AIADMK won all the 39 seats to the Lok
Sabha,” I reminded him. “This is not an assembly election,” he responded. “It
is for the prime minister and we want Modi as pm.
Did you see the crowds at
Modi’s Tiruchi rally? My car couldn’t enter the city that day.”  
He could
be right. An opinion poll conducted by Junior Vikatan, a political
journal belonging to the Vikatan group, published a survey which showed
that about forty per cent of those interviewed said they would vote for Modi.

regards

Arvind Kejriwal flies high

Does he not realize that he is under the microscope? He has two choices: pay his way or disclose his funding sources (that was already happening). The latter path will still leave him open to accusations of bias, but that is the problem of being (and promising to be) Mr Clean.

By taking India Today’s private Beechcraft
flight today (March 7, 2014), you make me feel foolish that I ever
supported you or reposed some faith in you as a politician of a new
India. Your representative on the prime time chat show may have
pathetically tried to defend the indefensible with such pitiable excuses
as 1) the Beechcraft ride was paid for by India Today and not by you,
and 2) that you took the flight in the interest of saving time!  

Your
defender didn’t seem to reflect for a moment that just this morning in
Gujarat you had eloquently fired away several questions at Narendra Modi
on his use of private flights and then within hours you had hopped
aboard one yourself, after all the moralistic stance you had taken all
this while about eschewing the VIP culture, the red lights, the
security, the cavalcade and other perks of office and what have you. 

The
truth is that your action today tantamounts to spitting on the face of
all those true aam admis who have stood by you and believed in the
values that you pretended to abide by all this time. The truth is today,
you don’t have a shred of a fig-leaf left to hide your abject bareness
behind.

 regards

“I have been too comfortable”

Hong Kong tries hard for democracy but China will not stand for it. Imposing democracy from top is a difficult exercise (as seen in India), it will take decades for the masses to catch on (if at all).

Still an imperfect democracy is better for people like us (we like to talk freely, we would like to talk even more freely but democracy constrains us), others may prefer the higher growth standards of autocracies (based on anecdotes it appears that the Indian middle and elite class – like Robert Young quoted below- heavily favor autocracies where the rights of the poor people will be even more curtailed than it already is).

As he lay on the tarmac of a central Hong Kong
street, gazing up at the skyscrapers, Chan Kin-man came to a
realisation. “I have been living a very comfortable life – up in an
office, writing articles, encouraging people to negotiate. Suddenly, I
have to prepare myself to go to jail. “It was a very striking
moment for me,” said the 55-year-old academic later. “I have been too
comfortable.
And at some point, Hong Kong people have to sacrifice
something to make people believe we are serious about democracy.” His
epiphany came during a test run for Occupy Central, a pro-reform civil
disobedience campaign that wants to see thousands take over Hong Kong’s
financial district – much to Beijing’s alarm.

On Thursday, one of China‘s
top leaders reportedly said that importing a western-style democratic
system to the region could prove catastrophic.
Zhang Dejiang, who heads
the leading group on Hong Kong affairs, said that copying a foreign
electoral system could “become a democracy trap … and possibly bring a
disastrous result”, Ma Fung-kwok, a delegate at Thursday’s closed-door
meeting, told Reuters.

Britain
showed little interest in developing democracy in Hong Kong until the
1997 handover to China loomed. Then, under the “one country, two
systems” framework, it negotiated greater freedoms for the region and a
commitment to eventual universal suffrage.

Authorities agree votes for all should be adopted when the region has a new chief executive in 2017, but want to ensue there are no unwelcome candidates. “It
is obvious that the chief executive has to be a person who loves the
country, loves Hong Kong and doesn’t oppose the central government,” the
region’s chief secretary for administration, Carrie Lam, has said.

Opponents
complain that nominations will be channelled through a committee packed
with Beijing loyalists, and want the public to gain the right to put
candidates forward too. Unless Beijing shifts by the end of the
year, Occupy’s organisers say they will risk their careers and freedom
to press for change.

Chan and his co-founders – Benny Tai, another
academic, and Baptist minister Chu Yiu-ming – hardly appear rabble
rousers. Chan peppers conversation with references to the sociologist
Jürgen Habermas. The full name of the movement is the hippy-ish Occupy
Central with Love and Peace. Non-violent civil disobedience – modelled
on the activism of Martin Luther King and Mahatma Gandhi – would be the
last resort, after mass deliberative meetings that would form the basis
for negotiations by the opposition pan-democratic parties that are
backing Occupy.But opponents claim the campaign threatens chaos.

Robert
Chow Young, a television host and a leader of the pro-business Silent
Majority group, called the campaigners evil. He paints a graphic picture
of a paralysed city and plunging stockmarket, with law and order
breaking down. “Let us not let some dreaming, wild-thinking person
think they can be immortalised by doing something crazy. Why should we
suffer for them? What do we stand to gain?” he asked. “Nothing. What do
we stand to lose? Everything.”

A poll by the non-partisan Hong Kong Transition Project
(pdf) found that 54% were opposed to Occupy Central, and only 38%
supported it – though were Beijing to warn against participation,
campaigners would gain support.

regards

Fight to the bitter end

How much do we the browns value “clean chits” from our superiors- the whites (of course they are our superiors in every way)? Evidently a lot. Unlike the original Battle of Britain some 60 years ago, the new battle of Britain (and the USA) will be a hand to hand combat experience. The funny thing is that the “visa question” may even benefit Modi (victim status confirmed) more than it hurts him (and it must hurt a lot).

A debate on BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi’s controversial
past sparked a row at a meeting within Britain’s parliament complex.

Human rights groups and organisers of ‘Narendra Modi and the Rise of Hindu
Fascism’
at a committee room in Parliament building on Wednesday claimed they
had been subjected to intense pressure and death threats from Hindu right-wing
groups in the UK to cancel the debate.

“This meeting has been held under extremely difficult conditions, in the
face of death threats. It just highlights the inability of Narendra Modi’s
supporters to tolerate anything other than their narrative and attempts to
suppress free speech,” said Chetan Bhatt, director of the Centre for the Study
of Human Rights at the London School of Economics (LSE).

The meeting received the backing of a number of British parliamentarians,
led by Labour MP John McDonnell, as well as celebrated India-born British
artist Anish Kapoor. “We are in a moment of great danger and your call to our
sense of justice is much needed,”
Kapoor said in a message read out at the
event.

 

regards

The americans are keeping (a careful) watch

Quick question: How frequently does Pew conduct opinion polls on election eve in foreign (third world, poor, no hope) countries?

Since it is conventional wisdom that polls conducted by Indian organizations are bogus (americans are saying so, one TV channel is also up with a sting operation) the next logical step is for the US organizations themselves to roll up their sleeves and step up to the plate and clear up all the confusion (+/- 3.8% is pretty credible). This in turn shines a spotlight on how much the americans are prepared to invest to make sure that they are well aligned with the coalition that will presumably rule India for next five years.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted between December 7, 2013 and January 12, 2014 based on face-to-face interviews with 2,464 randomly selected adults and a margin of error of 3.8% says

The survey has been conducted in all corners of India (Kerala excluded) and across all categories/divisions (gender, age, education, income, rural vs urban) BJP bests Congress by a huge margin.

At the lower end of the scale are the following: low income group (+37), 50+ age group (+37), women (+38), urban (+39). At the higher end we have the following: college degree (+52), middle income group (+49), men (+48) and (high) school certificate (+48).

What conclusions can we (imperfectly) draw from this? The Indian muslim population is less wealthy and more urbanized, this may help explain the low points. The middle class, well educated men form the backbone of the IH community so the high points are also not a surprise. Thankfully women appear to be (just a bit more) sensible as compared to men and aged people may recall the good old days of Nehru/Gandhi. Since the old generation will be fading away it appears that the hope for a secular India lies with her women. Stree Shakti is the best, it seems (as it was in the Vedic past when goddess Durga rode into battle against Mahisasura).

As far as regional differences are concerned: North (+74), followed by South (+42), West (+33) and East (+27). The southern anomaly is the most interesting data point of all. Explanations are (1) poll is crap, (2) shudras are relaxed about Sir-ji (why not? he is one of them, no?), (3) Kerala was not counted, (4) a bit of all of the above. If true this suggests that the southern leader-ess and others who may be thinking of jumping into bed with BJP will not be suffering any serious backlash if they decide to jump.

All in all Pew appears to confirm that the middle-caste, sons of the soil are ready to take back the power invested with mixed blood (also foreign blood) monarchs who have (mis)ruled India almost without break for so many centuries past. The shudra king of a shudra nation will not be stopped in his tracks by a bunch of liberal, pseudo-secular, activists. This is how democracy works, folks.

regards

India 2014

Right now the polls say that BJP/NDA will get 200+ seats. As I have noted this (if it actually happens) will be a game-changer because enough opportunists can be purchased to reach 272. However I consider this to be unlikely, mainly because of the impact of rural-based caste coalitions as well as that of the urban-based Aam Aadmi Party (incidentally why not Aam Aurat Party?). The Congress is optimistic about a Delhi like scenario where the BJP was stopped from getting an absolute majority. Indeed the same polls predict that AAP will win an overwhelming majority if elections are held afresh in Delhi.

Again the way I read the polls, Congress will do very poorly in North and West (Bihar and UP will be critical for the BJP), however it may get a few seats in the North-East. The bulk of the Congress seats will come from the south- Kerala, Karnataka and Telangana. This will make the transition of Congress from a pan-India party to a South Indian party complete.

That said it is instructive (and amusing) to see Big Brother monitoring the 2014 elections (in their usual soft-footed, light-touch manner). The piece below says a lot (even when it says little), for what it is worth polls were quite accurate in the most recent round of state elections. In my opinion, BB is unsure about the rise of the BJP, on the one hand they cant be happy about an assertive Hindu majority (kind of like the Muslim Brotherhood part II), on the other hand they are probably interested in new business opportunities. Again my feeling on this is if NaMo does come to the throne, he will push for China over America and this will be a nightmare all the way around (but may be good for regional stability). I conclude that a lot many people are deeply interested in what happens in India following the 2014 polls.

The sudden thaw in the relationship comes as India heads into the 2014 Lok Sabha (Lower House of Parliament) elections to be held this April and May. Modi’s Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has
named him as its candidate for prime minster should the BJP gain an
electoral victory.
By meeting with Modi, American officials are
signaling that they view a BJP victory in the coming elections as a real
possibility, and are hoping that they can improve the damaged
relationship with Modi as much as possible prior to the election.


Unsurprisingly, U.S. officials and India watchers around the world
are closely monitoring the torrent of election polls and public opinion
surveys streaming out of the Indian media to see where the BJP stacks up
against its rivals as the elections draw near.

regards

Brown Pundits