Post Apocalypse means AFTER the apocalypse..

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OK, i have to try. I have had well respected and highly knowledgeable people tell me after reading my Boko Harami post that we are better off in imperfect Pakistan than under the Khalsa. Since I had not claimed otherwise (in fact, had claimed exactly this) I must have been very unclear. I am going to try and explain. Anyone not concerned about this scenario building and hypothetical argument can relax and move on to the next post.

So, here is what I had written:

Here is my summary of who may be in a position to save us if the Pak army fails to change course (I sincerely pray to Allah that they do NOT fail)

1. IF the army fails to change direction, Punjab will have a short but terrible religious apocalypse. It’s inevitable in Punjab because Pakistaniat and Islamiyat are widely established and there is simply no armed group that can match the Jihadis if the army is gone. But post-apocalypse, we can be saved by the Khalsa. By that I don’t mean the literal Khalsa of yore, I just mean that once shariah law and jihadi rule is discredited (as it inevitably will be), Sikh rule may be the nearest palatable alternative, perhaps under overall Indian control. We can all hope and pray it does not come to that.
2. Pakhtoons can only be saved by Afghanistan. IF the army fails to change course, then there is simply no armed force IN KP that can fight the jihadis. But Afghanistan has an army…
3. The Baloch can only be saved by China (i.e. if the Chinese switch sides). No further explanation is necessary.
4. The Sindhis can only be saved by? …India? I don’t know. I await input on this one.

I thought it was pretty clear that these are NOT my wish list of some sort. These are all things that MAY happen AFTER the shit hits the fan, if the Pak army does not change course. I am not the first one to say that the Pak army should have taken the chance (and the money) to actually change course in 2001. The course we were on in the 1990s was one that would lead inevitably to a massive war with India (desired by the course creators) and Islamic revolution in Pakistan (desired only by the BokoHaramist faction of the army, but unwittingly facilitated by the moron faction in their eagerness to win objective number one). I should add that massive war with India (problem enough, given that both countries have large, if not always competently led, nuclear-armed armies) would not have been confined to India. The conflagration being prepared (and not widely known; “need to know basis”) would have involved central Asia, Russia, China and the worldcop of the day in various combinations. 
Anyway, so I made it as clear as I could that we are talking here about things that may happen IF the army does not change course. I continue to hope (and even to be somewhat optimistic) that the corrupt ruling elite of Pakistan will not prove suicidal and will actually adjust to “ground realities” (of course, they can lie and dissemble along the way, that is par for the course for ANY corrupt ruling elite). But, just as a POSSIBLE scenario; what would happen if the army were unable to cut away from the Jihadis and in time became so internally confused etc etc that they actually give up (or join the Jihadis)? Well, there are four major ethnic/cultural divisions that are recognized and familiar in Pakistan. Without worrying about details (for example, New Sindhi versus Old Sindhi) what, or rather who will establish law and order in these states if NOT the jihadis? (or after the Jihadis have their fill and go up in smoke)?

THEN, I pointed to 4 different possible scenarios. And I have no great illusions about any of them. Just as a random example, an educated and well established Khalistani Sikh once told my father (in all seriousness) that Giani Zail Singh (then President of India) used to have sex with Indira Gandhi and that is why Zail Singh was loyal to her. Sikh religious fanatics and their fights over beards and calendars and what not are well known, as are their own internal divisions and extremely variable levels of Hindu-phobia. Sikh efforts to enforce blasphemy laws against those who insult Sikhism are less famous (justifiably, since other people are less affected by them) than Islamic blasphemy laws, but are, if anything, more competent and effective. And so on and so forth. In any case, the Islamic apocalypse that would precede any Khalsa rescue would be reason enough to regard this as a VERY unpleasant and undesirable path to salvation. So please, this was not meant as some utopian fantasy of Punjabi nationhood and greatness. It was much simpler than that. Ideas AND armed men hold nations in place. Left wing Americans owe their existence as Americans as much to the US army as right wing nuts.  So, to sum up, here are the steps in that line of thought:
1. SUPPOSE Pak army fails to secure Pakistan. 
2. There is no armed force or ideology in Muslim Punjab that can resist a go at full Boko Haramism in that case. 
3. Boko Haramism will destroy the place, either as internal collapse or (more likely) as internal disorder followed by external war. 
4. POST-apocalyptic Punjab (a messy, murderous mess) will need someone to re-establish order. 
5. Sikh rule will be more palatable and practical than almost any other. 

It was a scenario. The way Mushie and his generals played “war-games”, we can play ours. It was neither a desire nor a prediction that this is bound to happen. It was a “what if”…

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6 Replies to “Post Apocalypse means AFTER the apocalypse..”

  1. 1. SUPPOSE Pak army fails to secure Pakistan.
    ok.

    2. There is no armed force or ideology in Muslim Punjab that can resist a go at full Boko Haramism in that case.
    fine. but there will be competing haramis.

    3. Boko Haramism will destroy the place, either as internal collapse or (more likely) as internal disorder followed by external war.
    how will the nuclear angle play out?

    4. POST-apocalyptic Punjab (a messy, murderous mess) will need someone to re-establish order.
    ok.

    5. Sikh rule will be more palatable and practical than almost any other.
    why not a democratic set up , under india's observation? or an indigenous democratic movement?
    all these 5 points will take possibly next 50 years . going by the current trend , religious/caste identity based politics have a questionable future in india.

    i have an alternative picture , if pak army fails. ( i too think they won't)
    institutions will become non-existent.
    various independent and competing militias will control different parts and will posses nuclear weapons. but they will not be able to use it , because
    1. the leader of a bunch of apparently crazy people may not be crazy enough.
    2. they may not have the delivery system . the first thing the international community will try to do is destroy the air force and the missiles.
    tactical nukes have limited range and usability.
    3. pakistan will in effect be quarantined . No external force will try to bring order because of the presence of the nukes.
    4. and this situation have the potential to continue for a very long time.

  2. there may be something else, which may hasten the events.

    in the past , there are several terrorist attacks which have clear pakistani connections. so far indian govt. effectively did nothing (amassing army at the border or diplomatic offensive don't count). but each time they do nothing, they spend a significant political capital. which makes punitive action more certain in future.

    now, most of the anti-indian infrastructure remains intact in pakistan.
    the americans are leaving afghanistan.
    and modi led bjp is coming to power in india.

    had i been a terrorist leader , i would be going for a spectacular attack in india within the next 5 years.
    i can't predict what modi will do in that case. but he will be under immense political and popular pressure to do something.
    if he chooses a "cold start" or limited aerial attack , a choice will then be thrust upon the pak army.

    1. From India, where else? If General Arora can liberate BD, some other General Singh will be welcomed to restore order in Lahore. SOMEBODY's gotta do it…IF and when the shit hits the fan. (Its getting closer than I had thought…or I am just unabalanced today because yet another close friend has just been shot dead for being a Shia. Strategic depth my foot. )

  3. 5. Sikh rule will be more palatable and practical than almost any other.
    why not a democratic set up , under india's observation? or an indigenous democratic movement?
    all these 5 points will take possibly next 50 years . going by the current trend , religious/caste identity based politics have a questionable future in india. "

    The notion of Sikhs as an effective military force are long gone. Sikhs were first psychologically neutered by the British. Indira Gandhi and her offspring demilitarized and physically degraded them. And now with the open economy and Punjab no longer benefitting from corporatism and national welfare as it did in the past, they are economic duds as well.
    Sikh's primary function for existence was the destruction of the Mughal Empire. Full stop. And when that ceased, they tried hither and tither to find a role and if you notice these days they are far more anti Hindu than anti Muslim and why shouldnt they be from their POV. The Muslim threat no longer exists,indeed Pak helped the Khalistan movement, they were quite lovey dovey with the British despite all the Sikh freedom fighter propaganda but it is Hindus who really did them in as (mostly) North Indian Hindus didnt have a role for them anymore and the Khalistan movement and its agenda of severing from Hinduism was really the death rattle of Sikh individuality and notion of seperatism , not the beginning
    It will take a couple more generations however for the Sikhs to be regurgitated within Hinduism as with happened with other militant heretical sects such as the Kannadiga Lingayats

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