The once and future India

A lot of the media is writing about how India’s population is now, or will be any moment, bigger than China. The issue I always have with these narratives is India is a big country; UP has a total fertility rate of around 3, while West Bengal is closer to 1.5. I assembled data on TFR’s in administrative divisions across India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. I plotted by population and TFR (the second chart is log-transformed so you can see more of the labels). Click to enlarge.

Also attached the table below.

Division Population TFR
Barisal Division 8555000 2.2
Chittagong Division 29958000 2.3
Dhaka Division 50918000 1.9
Khulna Division 15892000 2.0
Mymensingh Division 11396000 2.1
Rajshahi Division 18965000 2.3
Rangpur Division 17466000 2.3
Sylhet Division 11438000 2.2
Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) 4046000 3.8
Balochistan 12344000 4.5
Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) 1205000 3.8
Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) 2130000 2.8
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) 35525000 3.9
Punjab 110012000 3.1
Sindh 47886000 3.5
Andhra Pradesh 54520000 1.8
Arunachal Pradesh 1617000 2.2
Assam 35607000 2.3
Bihar 125029000 3.4
Chhattisgarh 28034000 2.3
Goa 1631000 1.7
Gujarat 67600000 2.2
Haryana 29780000 2.1
Himachal Pradesh 7252000 1.7
Jammu and Kashmir 13952000 1.8
Jharkhand 38070000 2.5
Karnataka 66891000 1.9
Kerala 35699000 1.8
Madhya Pradesh 85582000 2.7
Maharashtra 122153000 1.8
Manipur 3117000 2.2
Meghalaya 3437000 3.0
Mizoram 1207000 2.1
Nagaland 2411000 2.0
Odisha 46982000 2.1
Punjab 30405000 1.9
Rajasthan 79536000 2.4
Sikkim 688000 1.2
Tamil Nadu 77841000 1.7
Telangana 39364000 1.8
Tripura 4390000 1.7
Uttar Pradesh 237882000 3.1
Uttarakhand 11519000 2.0
West Bengal 100098000 1.6
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brown
brown
11 months ago

avg. tfr in bangladesh is 2 and it is 1.6 for west bengal. historically muslims have had a higher tfr in india. does this mean that hindu tfr in west bengal is almost 1.2 or less?

Half asleep
Half asleep
11 months ago
Reply to  brown

Muslim fertility rate usually lags behind Hindu TFR by approximately ten years, so it’s more likely that Bengali Hindu TFR is 1.5 and Bengali Muslim TFR is 1.9. The population split is 70-30, so the weighted average is 1.6.

Sumit
Sumit
11 months ago

1. High steppe will replace low steppe?

2. South Asian countries at below replacement tfr is interesting.

They still have high marriage rates, very low divorce rates, low labour force participation rates for women, supportive social networks etc… so if they are not having kids what do the bahus do all day ?

Or maybe they are having one kid each and really investing in that kid?

Brown Pundits