Open Thread – Assembly Elections 2026

Results for Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Assam are more or less a given. West Bengal is the big one.

Opened it a day in advance for discussions.

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formerly brown
formerly brown
15 days ago

good, waiting for this,

1) bengal is still not in the bjp’s bag. mamata starts with at least 50 seat advantage due to muslim dominated seats.
the question is ,what will be the level of hindu consolidation?

2) only one pollster gives joseph vijay substantial seats.axis my india ‘s numbers have been heavily disputed. lets see. it is said that bjp and congress voters have also gravitated towards vijay. if he gets 50 seats thats a big change in tamil politics.

3) if bjp gets even 5 seats in keralam, it is a major victory.

4) congress should get a street fighter in assam and not some suave clipped accented english speaker.

formerly brown
formerly brown
15 days ago
Reply to  Bombay Badshah

Christian community in Goa has all castes of hinduism right from Brahmin to Dalits.
Bjp has taken note of it. Manohar parrikar campained on this line and got Catholic Brahmin votes.
In keralam thrives mass of Christians are lower cast converts.

BombayBadshah
BombayBadshah
15 days ago
Reply to  formerly brown

BJP does get the majority of Dalit votes all over India though. It is Muslims who don’t vote for BJP.

girmit
girmit
15 days ago
Reply to  BombayBadshah

I think the all-India estimate is closer to 33%. Assam is a big outlier here, for reasons you may better explain. But that number is propped up by the BJP being an insurgent party in populous states like WB, where they invert the usual class appeal and make inroads with the excluded groups first.

X.T.M
Admin
15 days ago
Reply to  BombayBadshah

Political parties are big tents; presumably cultural issues don’t matter as much as economic issues ultimately

sbarrkum
sbarrkum
15 days ago
Reply to  formerly brown

In keralam thrives mass of Christians are lower cast converts.

Casteism rears its ugly head in its hate of Kerala.
Most Kerala Christians are Saint Thomas Christians or Nasranis since about 50 AD

formerly brown
formerly brown
15 days ago
Reply to  sbarrkum

No, the St. Thomas is keralam is disputed and only recently acknowledged by Vatican. Syrian christians are not the majority Christian community.

sbarrkum
sbarrkum
14 days ago
Reply to  formerly brown

I have noticed you make up statistics

Nasranis or Saint Thomas Christians) represent a significant portion of Kerala’s population, making up over 70% of the state’s Christian community. While Christians form roughly 18-19% of Kerala’s total population, Syrian Christians alone account for over 12-14% of the total Kerala population, totaling nearly 3 million

Fly Die
Fly Die
15 days ago
Reply to  formerly brown

Actually, it’s a lot more complicated than that in Kerala. Christians are deeply divided into multiple sectarian groups that started with schism in the Pre-colonial period and increased greatly moving into the colonial period. Historically, the original pre-colonial Christian communities that existed in the state were heavily interrelated with Levantine Christian groups such as the Assyrians, and mainly centered their religious activity around their center of operation in Iraq specifically. 

After the initial migration to India happened around the same time as the Gondhpharid Kardamaka dynasty ruling over Gujarat, as seen in the traditional literature, there were a few other waves. In one of these migrations, a set of Jewish-Christians from southern Mesopotamia led by Thomas of Cana, who settled and gradually developed into the modern sub-Nazarene group called the “Knanaya”. These new groups of Christians conflicted with the old Christians, leading to the North-South Divide between the old and new groups. Eventually, more divisions kept on happening as theological disagreements continued over time. 

When the colonial empires took over the land, they basically Westernized Christianity on the population, and the pre-existing Christian population opposed this imposition. Things became dicey after the portugese “lost” *cough* killed *cough* a major archbishop from the local community in France. Then, the oath at the bend cross took place, where the christian community stated that they will never fully merge into the European churches. 

Then, this created a massive divide between the original “Nazrani” Christian and the later “European” Christian groups. Nazaranis function as the upper caste, and the European-origin churches function as the lower caste since they were more open to external converts. Also, the Knanaya community within Nazaranite community straight ban inter-denominational (*cough*Intercaste*cough*) marriage with the other Nazarine. Then, there are further internal complex hierarchies, where denominations functioned as a caste (specifically Jaati) group. 

Also, Kerala Christians are nothing like Goan Christians. Anecdotally, I was born into an old conservative “Nazrani” family, where one of my great-grandfathers published books on Christian theology, and another was so sectarian he would walk on the other side of the road if he came across someone from another sect. At the same time, one of my great-grandfathers (the road walker) was an ayurvedic physician, and he literally built a family home/Tharavad according to the Vastu Shastra. Another one literally served as a scribe or minister in the royal court of the Poonjar dynasty and was even rewarded with lots of land that kept him rich for generations, until they naturally squandered it. 

Last edited 15 days ago by Fly Die
X.T.M
Admin
14 days ago
Reply to  Fly Die
Calvin
Calvin
15 days ago
Reply to  Bombay Badshah

Most goan catholics are not fans of the BJP it is in power due to breaking the congress and its alliance.

Calvin
Calvin
15 days ago
Reply to  Bombay Badshah

Yeah and support for individual politician does not translate into supoort for the BJP except in individual cases.

X.T.M
Admin
14 days ago
Reply to  Bombay Badshah

wow you live in Goa; that must be idyllic!

X.T.M
Admin
14 days ago
Reply to  Bombay Badshah

yum

Naam de guerre
Naam de guerre
15 days ago

Read somewhere that people in 24 Parganas refused to vote in the polling booth despite security presence. Apparently TMC agents had been voting for them the 15 years and now they’re scared of reprisals if they cast their vote. It is a shame that the land of India’s cultural revival has the most rotten political culture of almost any state in India.

Nivedita
Nivedita
14 days ago
Reply to  Naam de guerre

24 Parganas probably the worst in terms of law and order. She needed to go. Religious demographics changed so rapidly under her that she was turning out to be a national security headache. We’ve always been done in by the enemy within, selling the country for petty gains.

Not just the Hindus, the local Muslims not aligned to her were slaughtered in the previous election cycles. First hand info from a Bengali Muslim colleague.

formerly brown
formerly brown
15 days ago
Reply to  Bombay Badshah

1) In Tamil nadu, aidmk’s Jati coalition(gounder+vanniar+devar+…) is holding.
2) if only dmk had not made their party a family concern, Dravidianism would have survived a bit longer. Not any more.
3) for dmk to get out of this pit, it needs lot more than charismatic leaders. Difficult.
4) modi and BJP have been proved to be real fighters.

Last edited 15 days ago by k jayas
Naam de guerre
Naam de guerre
15 days ago
Reply to  Bombay Badshah

Isn’t AIADMK part of the NDA or is that no longer the case? I ask because there is no way TVK will form a coalition with a party seen as even remotely friendly with the BJP?

Calvin
Calvin
15 days ago

While Assam and Kerala seem to be going as expected. Tamil Nadu is a big surprise. Crazy that a party with basically no history is able to do so well on the back of an actor alone.

The way things are going it seems not only Mamatas own failures but the SIR, EC playing favorites and a large CAPF contingent was too much to bear. Let’s see if the BJP absorbs or dismantles the syndicate raj. Also hope for not post poll violence from TMC if these trends hold.

Naam de guerre
Naam de guerre
15 days ago
Reply to  Calvin

Do you have any insights on TVK and Vijay? Does he really have the affections of Tamil Christian community sealed up or is that just social media bluster? And what’s his appeal? Is there an alternate vision he is selling?

Last edited 15 days ago by Kratswat
Calvin
Calvin
15 days ago
Reply to  Naam de guerre

I dont know much about Tamil Nadu politics. This is as much a surprise for me as it is for you.

Naam de guerre
Naam de guerre
15 days ago
Reply to  Calvin

Waiting for some Tamil pundits to jump in. By all accounts, this looks like the biggest surprise in Indian politics in recent memory. I will say this – it is always a surprise to me that one of India’s best educated and prosperous states still has personality cults at the centre of its politics.

Calvin
Calvin
14 days ago
Reply to  Naam de guerre

Totally, cant get the logic behind this kind of thing.

Nivedita
Nivedita
14 days ago
Reply to  Naam de guerre

Free electricity and free bus rides for women à la Kejriwal and Karnataka Congress respectively. Riding primarily on his popularity as a cinema star. Unexpected outcome all the same. Nobody expected this blockbuster debut.

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[…] Fly Die on Open Thread – Assembly Elections 2026 […]

X.T.M
Admin
14 days ago

sorry didn’t realise – made this a sticky comment

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