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GauravL
Editor
3 years ago

Hey Razib, isn’t Texas itself Warm and Dry?

Milan Todorovic
Milan Todorovic
3 years ago

Maybe it was just a coincidence (I doubt), but the database crashed immediately after I sent my comment. It seems that both camps, oit and ait, are still confused and going back to recount their votes. We will revisit all bullet points by points but I think we finally have a comprehensive ancient historical framework which can explain key genetic and linguistic facts while future discussion topics, mythology and topology, will fit nicely in this big picture. Our other outstanding topics (rg, rb, pir, dumbas, knowledge zero, etc) must not contradict this framework. If they, hypothetically, do contradict, it would mean that something is wrong there. eNMohit took responsibility for RG and we expect that he will deliver to make BP great again.

principia
principia
3 years ago

A few days ago, Haryana implemented a 75% reservation for locals for private jobs. I half-jokingly asked if India’s supposed federalism was nothing but a paper tiger. Now Uttarkhand is mulling the same issue.

Ronen
Ronen
3 years ago
Reply to  principia

This is likely the closest India can get to a hukou-like system without having formal migration restrictions. The main issue here is that there isn’t a single metropolis between Delhi and Calcutta that can serve as a centre for attracting capital and investing in labour-intensive industries within its subregion.

What happens with higher per-capita states in the north like Haryana is that the working classes would locally have to compete with the 200+ million pool of labour in the Indo-Gangetic belt who are trying for a better life in other states. So the outcome would be subdued wages due to the availability of a vast blue-collar labour force. The states aren’t necessarily opposed to high-skilled labour and many of these legislations have a salary cap above which these rules won’t apply, it’s primarily the less educated they’re concerned about.

At the macro-level, the outcome wouldn’t necessarily have to be bad – industries facing higher labour costs in wealthier states can move to poorer states provided the state in question has a good regulatory framework, localised infrastructure, an industrially-aware workforce, and political & judicial stability (this is what the CMs of those states should be aiming for).

Prats
Prats
3 years ago
Reply to  Ronen

“What happens with higher per-capita states in the north like Haryana is that the working classes would locally have to compete with the 200+ million pool of labour in the Indo-Gangetic belt who are trying for a better life in other states.”

Do locals even really want those jobs?
We are seeing this already in states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu where the locals would rather be unemployed than do blue collar work. In Kerala, they don’t even want to do entry level IT jobs.

Even in Punjab, the young would rather move to Canada/Australia or try their hands out being rappers than do farm work.

“At the macro-level, the outcome wouldn’t necessarily have to be bad – industries facing higher labour costs in wealthier states can move to poorer states”

So what it will eventually end up doing is creating unnecessary bureaucracy and discretionary fines by some petty officers.

Do you think a Swiggy like startup will want to come up in Gurugram now?

“provided the state in question has a good regulatory framework, localised infrastructure, an industrially-aware workforce, and political & judicial stability”

Slim chance.

Ronen
Ronen
3 years ago
Reply to  Prats

“We are seeing this already in states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu where the locals would rather be unemployed than do blue collar work. In Kerala, they don’t even want to do entry level IT jobs.

Even in Punjab, the young would rather move to Canada/Australia or try their hands out being rappers than do farm work.”

These are specific state-related issues, within Kerala and Tamil Nadu the basic needs of the locals would be met if they remain unemployed for a duration, the same can’t be said of those who live in poorer states in the north. It’s unlikely that these southern states would pass such rules, since most of the cheap labour that fuels industries such as construction (one of the main ways to embezzle wealth for the legislators) come from these regions.

As for Punjab, the people there already have a large diaspora everywhere that function as support groups. Even if many of the lower-income sections of other ethnicities want to follow the same path, the lack of community presence would act as a deterrence.

“Do you think a Swiggy like startup will want to come up in Gurugram now?”

My concern is more about medium and large-scale industrial units than startups in this particular case. Swiggy would have comparatively lesser fixed costs vis-a-vis say a petrochemical plant or textile manufactory. If industries don’t have access to an easy labour pool they won’t be able to compete with international conglomerates, many of which function more efficiently than India’s and can make better quality and cheaper goods.

This is especially a problem since India isn’t a rich enough country to fuel industrial growth on consumption alone (and the top 10-15% of the pop. purchase a majority of higher-value consumer goods). There’s no way out other than exporting, but rules such as this would make it more difficult for industries to compete with global players, not to mention the myriad of other issues they face…

Prats
Prats
3 years ago
Reply to  Ronen

“the same can’t be said of those who live in poorer states in the north.”

I was talking specifically about Haryana in this case, which has a higher per capita income than TN and Kerala.
(You could say that the number might be skewed because of Gurgugram but I doubt that. We can look at the data.)

As for Uttarakhand, I really doubt that the state has enough industrial base to pull off such a law in the first place. There are plenty of people from the state working as security guards in Delhi and Bombay. They wouldn’t have migrated out if they could find any job locally.

“My concern is more about medium and large-scale industrial units than startups in this particular case. Swiggy would have comparatively lesser fixed costs vis-a-vis say a petrochemical plant or textile manufactory.”

I agree with that. I brought up Swiggy mainly because despite all the push for industrialization, a large chunk of relatively high paying blue collar job creation is happening in the services sector.

“There’s no way out other than exporting, but rules such as this would make it more difficult for industries to compete with global players, not to mention the myriad of other issues they face…”

Do you think Haryana is a good location to manufacture goods for export?

It is centrally located if you want to reach the north Indian market. But it’s pretty far from any port. Punjab has suffered for the same reason.

If Bihar can get its house in order and give up environmental/labour regulations for a couple of generations then I can see something happening there. It will be brutal in the short run, though and I don’t know if the state has the appetite for that kind of industrialization.

It is upstream from two major megapolises in Calcutta and Dhaka. These can serve as domestic markets as well as gateways to SE Asia.

ITC for example has a major factory in Munger on the banks of Ganga from where stuff can reach Calcutta.

Narasingha Deva
Narasingha Deva
3 years ago
Reply to  principia

This will benefit western UP, which is good. They will come to their senses when factories will start moving.

fragment_and_activities
fragment_and_activities
3 years ago
Reply to  principia

Should not be a huge issue, I think.

Many migrants have come ~a decade ago. Their children study in these states, so they will have domicile.

It might have been a very big issue back in the day, but I am not sure it would be as detrimental as we think.

Dip
Dip
3 years ago

Had some questions
1. What are the complex machines invented in India/South Asia?
2. What are the ethnicity, ancestry, language & caste of King Ashoka?
3. Are haplogroups E1b1b and E1b1a both of African origin? If that is the case, aren’t modern Caucasoid North Africans descendants of E1b1b-carrying Negroid men & Eurasian women?

Milan Todorovic
Milan Todorovic
3 years ago
Reply to  Dip

3) E1b is the third largest haplogroup (16%) among Serbs after I2 and R1a. It came from the north (Germany, Czech Republic) 3200 years ago from the so-called Lusatian culture known for its urn fields created by burning the dead. She participated in Serbian ethnogenesis for thousands of years. Only two E1b skeletons from the period 20000-3200 were found (Ukraine and Split, YU). There was no mass migration of E1b from the Mediterranean to the north of Europe (Germany) but there were individual migrations over thousands of years.

It is interesting that they were coming to Serbia for thousands of years and that they all had a tendency to tribal life that has been maintained in Montenegro to this day and to usually engage in animal husbandry (for e.g. R1a were farmers). They are prone to a patriarchal way of life and are considered to be distinctly nationally oriented Serbs.

td
td
3 years ago

Last phase of elections going on in Bihar too ? . I suspect defeat of the NDA(BJP-JDU coalition) and win of the Mahagathbandhan.

Narasingha Deva
Narasingha Deva
3 years ago
Reply to  td

I agree with you but I also think that bjp will be the largest party. People only have a problem with jdu

td
td
3 years ago

“I also think that bjp will be the largest party. People only have a problem with jdu” — Since Bihari mostly vote alomg caste and religious lines, i wonder on what basis have you made the above claim ?

Narasingha Deva
Narasingha Deva
3 years ago
Reply to  td

@td
My thinking is that the bjp has the support of non yadav obcs (in 2015 I feel the support was not as strong), upper castes and what ever transfer there can be from jdu and ljp. Also there isn’t any anti-incumbency against the bjp, like there is against jdu

fragment_and_activities
fragment_and_activities
3 years ago
Reply to  td

I don’t think Mahagathbandhan will win, BJP+JDU will win the elections. However, I believe it would be the reversal of what we saw in the 2015 Bihar election. After election, if the RJD+JDU numbers are good enough. They will form a coalition (like Maharashtra).

Numinous
Numinous
3 years ago

Razib, you had a post up with your projected map (very prescient, except for Georgia, which is very close anyway.) But that post seems to have disappeared after the site came back up.

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago

I still think JDU will surprise, its the party of the ‘silent voter’ unlike the others who’s core vote base is quite vocal. Let see.

Rock
Rock
3 years ago
Reply to  Saurav

So much for being a greater hindu region.

thewarlock
thewarlock
3 years ago
Reply to  Rock

They will be back

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago
Reply to  Rock

Seems like the ‘Hindu region’ thing has stuck a cord. Haha

Also the region is Hindu where the battles are still being fought. At least better than less-Hindu regions where the so called Hindu side has lost relevance politically from the start.

Narasingha Deva
Narasingha Deva
3 years ago
Reply to  Saurav


Would you say that Karnataka is a more hindu state than Bihar, because the it had BJP CMs even before modi and Bihar hasn’t ever had one.

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago
Reply to  Saurav

Karnataka is the UP of S-India, its most ‘Hindu’ region. No prizes for guessing, considering it was the last ‘Hindu’ kingdom. Still not ahead of Bihar though.

Also ‘Hindu-ness’ is a gradient which does not purely depend number of BJP CMs. Or else i would have put Gujrat ahead of UP. Its depends on salience ‘Hinduism’ has on the politics and culture of that state. For example in the East, i would put Orissa > Bengal in ‘Hinduism’ quotient , even though neither of them have had BJP CMs.

Narasingha Deva
Narasingha Deva
3 years ago
Reply to  Saurav


What are your thoughts on making a list of states based on how hindu/ culturally dharmic they are. I imagine it to be like ease of doing business ranking but instead of a healthy competition between state governments, it would be a healthy competition between the hindu organizations of those states. For example if bengal gets a bjp cm in the next election and by the end of his term, it surpasses odisha in the index, the hindu organizations of odisha would try to get ahead again and launch movements to that end. On the whole, the region will turn more hindu

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago
Reply to  Saurav

Bengal is so far outside the pale, that it would perhaps require a 5 term BJP rule to come close to anything remotely Hindu . LOL

td
td
3 years ago
Reply to  Saurav

“My thinking is that the bjp has the support of non yadav obcs (in 2015 I feel the support was not as strong)” — @NarsimhaDeva, I doubt they have that in this election especially of the EBCs(Bihar has further subcategorization of OBC into BC and EBC), afaik, BJP has given a very high % of tickets to upper castes compared to last time .
Unrelated but you would be surprised to know that yadavs have more MLAs(2015) than all upper castes combined in Bihar lol.

“I still think JDU will surprise, its the party of the ‘silent voter’ unlike the others who’s core vote base is quite vocal. ” — @ Saurav, anti-incumbency is quite strong(unemployment etc) and the way nitish handled return of migrant biharis during covid-19 pandemic, it seems to have to left a bad taste.

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago
Reply to  td

Let see. The JDU represents the most underprivileged sections . If anything i would say the BJP UCs splintering with LJP opting out which would lead to loss.

Anyhow the fall out of Jungle Raj 2 will be on the UCs more than OBC (JDU) folks. Elections have consequences.

Bhimrao
Bhimrao
3 years ago

Some advantages America has over India, feel free to correct/add:
(0) Water and Land.
(1) A people willing to work hard, put themselves out and take risks. The easiest explanation for this is a deep sense of security. In India if you miss one shot two generations get screwed.
(2) A deeper appreciation of fundamentals of economics for growth. Socialist industries never work. India is a grouping of tribes, each wanting a bigger share of a smaller pie.
(3) Opportunity
think intrusive government, red-tapism, asinine laws…
In Bengal unions control everything. If you have to set up a small business then first go through Trinmool or Communist union. Everything and everyone is strangled, suffocated by political unions and bureaucracy.

Self claimed advantages which are BS:
(1) ‘We are a naïve people who value ideals over identity.’
-LoL! @ the confidence with which Americans market their bullshit.
(2) Military invincibility.
-Americans suck at war. In their favor my theory is that they are merely giving practice to next generations of generals in hope of avoiding sucker-punches.
(3) American education system.
-there are better ways to learn(like online courses, apprentice/intern) than 4 year college. College is basically insurance for mediocre people and a place to socialize for the savvy.

At the heart of everything it is not the judge, the doctor, the scientist, the scholar, the artist, the engineer, the soldier or….. that makes America special. It is the American entrepreneur that sustains this entire façade with constant influx of new money and ideas, everyone else is supporting cast.

Bhimrao
Bhimrao
3 years ago

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/06/biden-harris-india-modi-election/

“With Kamala Harris in the West Wing, Modi’s opponents in India may suddenly gain leverage.”

Ghanta! (my ass!)

thewarlock
thewarlock
3 years ago
Reply to  Bhimrao

she has deep ties to haleem leftist gang. It is about to get bad for NDP

Brown
Brown
3 years ago

prof. vaidyanathan has spoken for a second hindu party to mop up rest of hindu votes. he is apprehensive that the opposition space is increasing being taken by ngos , anarchists and far left groups.
interesting….

Ugra
Ugra
3 years ago

The benevolent Audrey Truschke has turned her wisdom filled eyes towards the Mahabharata.

https://aeon.co/essays/the-indian-epic-mahabharata-imparts-a-dark-nuanced-moral-vision

The Mahabharata is about caste prejudice, sexism, identity problems, misogyny, politics and other assorted moral cobwebs.

Shrimati Truschke has also toiled very hard to give us her “own” translations of some select passages. Its all very clear to me now when explained in such a lucid manner. Can’t wait for the next instalment of “Harry Potter and the Audacity of this …..”

Prats
Prats
3 years ago
Reply to  Ugra

I hope some day Indian authors will pass serious ‘critical’ commentary on the Bible and Quran in reputed online publications in a similar fashion.

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago
Reply to  Prats

Won’t happen. Because notwithstanding our façade of ‘all religions are Indian’ , Indian liberals know that Christianity and Islam are not really ‘Indian’. So the success and failures of Indian society are due to Hinduism.

Also Christianity and Islam already have white and semi white ‘critical’ commentators. Who needs a brown commentator AKA Pankaj Mishra for them. Brown commentators are only good for brown religions.

Prats
Prats
3 years ago
Reply to  Saurav

Heh. My comment was more about a bright future when we are rich and powerful. And liberals have developed enough self-confidence to feel free to opine authoritatively on issues of the west for audiences of the west from an Indian PoV.

Don’t care too much about ‘Indian’ Islam or Christianity. They are what they are.

@phyecon1
@phyecon1
3 years ago

@ugra, why is there this itch to keep posting such links?. why give clicks?

Ugra
Ugra
3 years ago
Reply to  @phyecon1

Hey…my comment vanished 🙁

Bhimrao
Bhimrao
3 years ago
Reply to  Ugra

Ugra,

I have been reading up on Starlink, One Web and Project Kuiper. My simple questions are :

1) Why did no one else think of mega-constellations earlier?
2) Why make so many small ones when there can be a few big ones? 12K Starlink sounds overkill.
3) What can small ones do that large ones can’t?
4) No one wants to build large ones they do it because they need big antennas, big solar arrays, redundancies, fuel etc. What is special about small ones?

I think for a lot of businesses that pitch ‘small is beautiful’ the savings are because of neater-efficient operations rather than some advantage in technology. WDYT?

Also isn’t this unilateral and irresponsible. Just wait before asshole Americans start bitching about irresponsible Chinese/Indians/Russians littering LEO with trash using selective propaganda graphics and pretending to be saints.

Ugra
Ugra
3 years ago
Reply to  Bhimrao

Starlink is not going to match the speed or bandwidth of land fibres. Its just an attempt to see what is possible – currently the Beta is slated to provide decent connectivity to rural towns in the hinterland. Commercial fibre services in cities are cheaper than Starlink with none of the technological risks.

In the late 1990s, along with other dotcom bubbles – there was a satellite telephony startup Iridium with the tagline “Geography is History”. They planned to launch 66 satellites to cover the whole earth with continuous coverage. But of course land towers made that whole project redundant. Even without the profusion of land towers, Iridium was prohibitively expensive. This is one of Elon’s projects which I do not think is commercially viable. At best it will set in motion new investments in fibre cables to the hinterland.

LEO litter is just bullshit – something dreamed up by DoD wonks to scream murder when Chinese or Indians test their ASAT weapons. There is litter in outer space – but they pose very very astronomically low probabilities of damaging other satellites. Let me ask you – when was the last time a litter/trash on earth’s surface hit you or your moving car and cause damage? Yes they happen but the odds are very low.

LEO is just earth with a bigger radius with a larger surface area. Satellites are just car sized moving objects. Litter is also moving. Quite safe! We are very very far from that level of density where the probability will start triggering insurance payouts. Thats one thing you need to mentally jog – where there is no risk, there are no agents selling you insurance!

Bhimrao
Bhimrao
3 years ago
Reply to  Ugra

Bharati Airtel recently bought Oneweb. Idk what were they thinking. Will it be their Corus steel?

Milan Todorovic
Milan Todorovic
3 years ago

BP is doing a great job by pushing the envelope of our knowledge of the beginnings of our common history. One day, young doctorands will research its database to find out when some facts and hypotheses were firstly presented here. In one of the following comments we will present what two unrepresentative i.e. specimens, ait and oit campers, consider the greatest surprise for them in a comment presented recently in bullet points.

Right now, just to touch one of these points in order to fix the ruling taxonomy. It is related to the term ‘(Proto)Indo-European’. Initially it was politically named as ‘Indo-Germanishe’ to be politically changed to ‘Indo-European’. Even wiki says that this term is a fiction which assumes the language originated within one group of people which subsequently influenced almost all languages in Europe in SAsia. The term was later used only as a plural and even expanded to mark non-existent ‘Indo-European’ people.

To make this overview shorter (will revisit this), this so-called (P)IE had to originate in Europe within I, especially I2 haplogroup, which is the only European haplogroup, originated 30-35000BC. The birthplace of this language was Lepenski Vir and later Vinca with numerous satellite sites where the huge majority of European people lived during the Ice Age. This language evolved into Serbian language which several thousands of year later influenced almost all young European languages. It moved to SAsia 4000 years ago and this localized version was Sanskrit.

What is the moment in time when we can say that this language can be named like this? We can use the estimates of some linguists (although they used the term PIE) of 8500BC or wiki estimate of 5-6500BC. I would propose the time of transition from pra-language to the language when the consonant group RB (i.e. SRB) which was recently mentioned in a different context, created. Because, one of the imminent tasks is to explain the meaning of this consonant group (so as RG).

Milan Todorovic
Milan Todorovic
3 years ago

This comment appeared 10 hours after submission on the 20th place of Recent Comments.

Narasingha Deva
Narasingha Deva
3 years ago
Sumit
Sumit
3 years ago

Kamala Auntie’s ancestral village celebrates her victory:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLimEBQ50Tw

NM
NM
3 years ago
Reply to  Sumit

:facepalm

Milan Todorovic
Milan Todorovic
3 years ago

There are jokes and semi-jokes in the Russian public about the American elections. It is already circulating on the Russian Internet: Donald Trump is losing because he did not read Lenin. Because, if it was, he would have understood the main thing a long time ago: if you want to take over or keep power – firstly conquer the postal service. And, the answer on the question – “Why can’t Trump go to the White House for the second time?” is “Because he’s for Biden, too.” (i.e. forbidden).

Btw, my comments wait for publishing between 6-12 hours, sometimes, the whole day.

Prats
Prats
3 years ago

I used to be fairly ‘progressive’ in the early 2010s. It was the last Bihar elections when the penny first dropped for me that Indian progressives are mostly charlatans.

Cheering for RJD and Lalu just because they defeated BJP.

I realised that these people don’t really care for the people of Bihar, who lived a pathetic life during Lalu’s rule. During my stay in Patna in middle school, I witnessed kids from my school getting kidnapped, a school teacher shot dead in broad daylight, an acquaintance’s car stolen at gun point and many many more such incidents.

Not all the victims I knew were rich or even upper caste.

But progressives don’t really care for human lives as much as they care for their ’cause’.

Grown pretty sceptical of them now.

Nitish has been pretty underwhelming. I expected better but if RJD comes back to power it will set the state back by at least 10 more years.

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago
Reply to  Prats

Curious that it took u that long for penny to drop.

https://thewire.in/politics/lalu-yadav-bihar-elections-tejashwi-yadav

Indian progressives ☝️

Bhimrao
Bhimrao
3 years ago
Reply to  Saurav

She is the Sudhir Chaudhary of the opposition. Shekhar Gupta is a shrewd calculative man to have created her out of nothing, a Rana Ayyub for the Hindi masses. Is there even one right leaning Muslim journalist in India?

Prats
Prats
3 years ago
Reply to  Saurav

Hehe. All of us take our sweet time. IIRC you mentioned you were shouting slogans with JNU folks as well in your youth.

That Wire article is retarded.

It is interesting how these people weasel in the term ‘Dalit’ whenever they mention Muslims. Everyone wants to feed off Dalit’s misery. Fucktards.

They forget when Shahabuddin was killing communist leaders willy-nilly. These progressives don’t even care for their own people.

The politics of social justice has already costed Bihar a lot. I would plead outsiders to just stay out of it and let economic development happen.

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago
Reply to  Prats

LOL, u rmbr that one. Not my best days.

In my defense i should add i was somewhat apolitical till 2012 (lost interest after 2004), and was dating someone who studied there.

My view abt Bihar is that it has sort of reached the glass ceiling. There is so much u can do with their meagre resources. With UP there is still a chance of moving the proceeds of western UP to Eastern UP. So regardless who wins , its no change, but seems like instead of holding the gains of last 15 years, they would rather gamble it over a distant dream. Lets see.

Bhimrao
Bhimrao
3 years ago
Reply to  Prats

” During my stay in Patna in middle school, I witnessed kids from my school getting kidnapped, a school teacher shot dead in broad daylight, an acquaintance’s car stolen at gun point and many many more such incidents.”

+1

Kidnapping was a big organized ‘industry’ under Lalu, there was a movie ‘Apaharan’ made on this theme too.

The current mess is because Nitish has made grave miscalculations especially with Sharad Yadav. He is so much better than Lalu’s ilk. If Adityanath is the epitome of Hindutva, Lalu is the epitome of the corruption, hooliganism and mismanagement.

I remember in early 2000s Lalu’s people used to just drive away (rob) cars from automobile showrooms in broad daylight. People are fickle, votes have consequences.

To be honest if there was a list of people who are most uncivil, disrespectful and in general unruly to interact with Biharis would top it (followed by Haryana, UP, and Jharkhand).

Prats
Prats
3 years ago
Reply to  Bhimrao

Even if you are a die hard progressive and do 4D chess calculation to justify that some violence is good, that trade off ends way before Lalu.

When some south Indian SJW in Bangalore who freely abuses Biharis all the time tells me how Lalu’s victory in Bihar is some magical win for social justice, I literally feel like slapping that person.

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago
Reply to  Prats

Indian twitter woke were doing

Biden-Harris = Bi-Har

Bhimrao
Bhimrao
3 years ago
Reply to  Saurav

Never vote for:
1) Mayawati
2) Commie Bangali
3) Lalu
It will always end badly.

The way Indians vote someday in our lifetimes even Rahul baba will be PM.

btw why is AAP fixated on Punjab? It is now solidly a regional party.

Prats
Prats
3 years ago
Reply to  Saurav

I wouldn’t put Mayawati in the same category as Lalu and commies. Probably add Akhilesh there instead.

Lived in UP under both BSP and SP rule. In the first case, you at least have the assurance that if you leave the house you will come back safe.

Bhimrao
Bhimrao
3 years ago
Reply to  Saurav

I am pro-Akhilesh because of Lucknow/Kanpur metro and the expressways. He was not as loose on law and order as his father or uncle. UP people conclusively proved that they don’t care about performance when they booted him out.

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago
Reply to  Saurav

I would put mayawati and akhilesh in decent group. They had their strengths and weakness. But regardless they didn’t go all out to fuck their own state just to prove their ideology.

Anyway I am a bit more optimistic about UP than Bihar, considering that atleast one arm of the state ( west UP) is still working. Unless our desi vin diesel fucks that up.

Ronen
Ronen
3 years ago

Founding editor of the Wire, and former executive editor of the Hindu, channelizing his inner luddite:
https://twitter.com/mkvenu1/status/1324172929160998912

principia
principia
3 years ago
Reply to  Ronen

He’s right in principle but chose the wrong country. There are lots of paper-based elections that are decided within a day or so all over the world. The US is uniquely bad at it. But EVM are very easy to manipulate, more so than paper ballots.

Bhimrao
Bhimrao
3 years ago
Reply to  principia

There are paper rolls (Voter-verified paper audit trail) in Indian EVMs that keep a physical copy.

thewarlock
thewarlock
3 years ago

Bihar will remain at the HDI of current Pak, failed state

Prats
Prats
3 years ago
Reply to  thewarlock

Bihar has Delhi as its Godfather while Pakistan has Beijing. I guess the latter will do better in the next few decades.

thewarlock
thewarlock
3 years ago
Reply to  Prats

Yes. Only hope for locals is outmigration. Factories need to be setup in Kashmir to relocate them

If terrorists cause issues, build armed compounds and teach them how to use guns. Much development potential exists in relatively empty area

Prats
Prats
3 years ago
Reply to  thewarlock

If Biharis do get comfortable in Kashmir then I am not sure if the terrorists are ready for what they are about to face.

thewarlock
thewarlock
3 years ago
Reply to  Prats

I think it will be initially violent but eventually beautiful integration.

Biharis and Kashmiris share similar honor culture and communal mindsets. It will be good to mend these through interaction.

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago
Reply to  Prats

“I think it will be initially violent but eventually beautiful”

I just feel Trump must have said these words somewhere 😛

thewarlock
thewarlock
3 years ago
Reply to  Prats

There is so much disdain among the locals for the heartland people. Once hearts are exchanged, such hate cannot persist.

Jai Shree Ameen

principia
principia
3 years ago

So Bihar looks to be going to RJD way, and away from NDA. On the ground reporting tells us a story of a desperate and jobless youth looking beyond caste. Now, this is Bihar of all places, and “beyond caste” sounds a lot like “beyond race” in the US. Easier said than done.

Nevertheless, India’s youthful population means that there is not much memory of times past nor can there be any significant loyalty built-up. This is a warning to the BJP, especially once Modi leaves.

Ugra
Ugra
3 years ago

This fascinating tweet thread has been going around since morning on the anomalies in mail-in ballots for the swing states. It is qualitatively different as it uses data analysis to sniff out the anomalies.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1325592112428163072.html

TLDR – Mail-in ballots when they arrive via the postal system display the randomness of a shuffled deck of cards. The graphical results for in-person voting vs mail-in voting are radically different to look at. In-person voting looks like a scattered buckshot impact while mail-in voting represents a line when results are plotted against time.

Because the mail-ins have been shaken though the logistics of the USPS, the ratio of Democratic to Republic votes (D to R) ratio should be constant when counted (using any random picking sequence). Or it can gradually ease out to another value zone. There can never be abrupt changes in slope.

All the swing states display heavy anomalies (sudden jumps in slope) to the pattern exhibited by all other states. FWIW the researcher also has an exception to this observation – Virginia.

Milan Todorovic
Milan Todorovic
3 years ago

Did Trump really come up with a checkmate game in which Pence will play the main role?

THE COLLEGE OF ELECTORS WILL MEET ON DECEMBER 14 AND PROBABLY CHOOSE BIDEN, BUT…

The verification of the election results must be confirmed by the American Congress on January 6 at a joint session of both houses. The session will be chaired by US Vice President Michael Pence, who will have the opportunity to comply with a written and reasoned request from at least one congressman and at least one senator not to recognize the decision of the Electoral College.

Pence, as the chairman, makes that decision personally, and he is not obliged to put it to the vote. This leads to a situation where none of the candidates has 270 electoral votes. In that case, everything ends with a vote in the lower house of the US Congress, where each state has only one vote, and the Republicans control 28 out of 50 US states…

Yahooooo! What is the deeper – state or shit?

Milan Todorovic
Milan Todorovic
3 years ago

Previous comment appeared 18 hours after its submission as #11 among RC.

thewarlock
thewarlock
3 years ago
thewarlock
thewarlock
3 years ago
Milan Todorovic
Milan Todorovic
3 years ago

One of the greatest physicists and the most important personalities in the history of the world, Albert Einstein, arrived in the summer of 1905 in Kać, a village near Novi Sad. He was accompanied by his wife, mathematician Mileva Marić, and their 14-year-old son. That year, the Einstein family spent their vacations in Novi Sad, Kać, Titel and Belgrade.

While staying in Novi Sad, Kać, Titel and Belgrade, Einstein discovered the charms of a Serbian café/pubs and concluded that Serbs are genius people. Since he met Serbs, he has stopped trusting both doctors and medicine, because they are against alcohol.

In one of the pub conversations, Einstein said:

“I no longer trust doctors, medicine or anything, because they are against alcohol. A Serb drinks from birth to death, since he is born, how he grows, when he travels, when he marries, when he is buried, and yet Serbs are a genius nation.”

Milan Todorovic
Milan Todorovic
3 years ago

It is boiling in Yerevan: Protesters took over the government and beaten the speaker of the parliament, will President Pashinyan save his head? The Americans brought the Pashinians to power with the help of an atypical coloured revolution. And in the case of Armenia, it turned out that American vassals were not able to wage national wars.

Ugra
Ugra
3 years ago

Exceptional showing by BJP and allies today. Very strong performance after six months of lockdowns and economic slowdowns. Shows that the voter can exhibit forbearance in the face of temporary adversity.

Absolute nailbiter of a victory in Dubbakka, Telangana bypoll. MP is strengthened, Gujarat sees a resurgence.

More than an organization of ideology, the BJP inherits its mien from professionals who steer with a very cool hand. The LJP move has paid off in spades – they have inflicted heavy losses on Congress but also some collateral damage on its ally. For what its worth, there is also some post-poll management to be done to ensure MVA type arrangements don’t materialise.

The ship now must set sail for Bengal.

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago
Reply to  Ugra

Bengal is same as Kerala. Too less ‘Hindu-space’ for BJP to win.

Bhimrao
Bhimrao
3 years ago
Reply to  Saurav

AIMIM wins 5 seats.

thewarlock
thewarlock
3 years ago

the genius of Amit Shah shows again. Jai Shree Krishna

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago
Reply to  thewarlock

After his success I would say bjp should Induct more baniyas in their team. They compensate their electoral irrelevance with money and strategy ?

thewarlock
thewarlock
3 years ago
Reply to  Saurav

He guju. Correct term is vania 😉

He is not Jain though. He is Vaishnav. I have family members on the Gujarat political scene who clarified a few years ago. He even ate at one of their homes.

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago
Reply to  thewarlock

Same thing. I don’t care if the cat is black or white, so long as it catches mice.

justanotherlurker
justanotherlurker
3 years ago
Reply to  Saurav

And for the Northies here (who really should learn another Indian language like the rest of the Indians, but I digress :)) it is pronounced vAANia (N like in PraaN)

Rock
Rock
3 years ago

Don’t celebrate prematurely.

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago

https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/us-elections-2020-joe-biden-india-us-relations-foreign-policy-7033696/

“Trump’s defeat is being interpreted by some as a setback for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi because Delhi has invested so much in the relationship with the Trump administration. To make it even more interesting, there is much speculation that Biden might be nursing a grievance against Modi because the Indian PM was buttering up Trump at the “Howdy Modi” rally in Houston last fall. Biden has far too much on his plate to waste time plotting on how to get even with Modi for saying “Abki bar, Trump Sarkar”.

This debate tells us more about the divisions within India and how they colour our judgements of other societies. Some in Delhi hope and others fear that the US Congress has the wisdom or the power to set right India’s internal problems. Those who are hopeful or anxious about critical comments from a section of the Democratic Party’s legislators about Kashmir and the Citizenship Amendment Act tend to overdetermine the weight of these concerns in the conduct of the US foreign policy towards India.”

Collaborator syndrome

fragment_and_activities
fragment_and_activities
3 years ago
Reply to  Sumit

He is a discount Jamaican 🙂

thewarlock
thewarlock
3 years ago

People have disparaged him for his skin color a lot. In the literal sense, he is standing up for himself by taking the knee.

Darker people in India suffer far more injustice relative to their American counterparts. They need BLM

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago
Reply to  thewarlock

The funny part is he enraged both our nationalist and woke-sters with that action.

Nationalist: Why he bringing politics into sports?
Wokesters: Y he dont do it for dalits getting lynched?

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago

https://indianexpress.com/elections/bihar-election-results-left-parties-cpiml-dipankar-bhattacharya-7046545/

Left in EVEN Bihar is lead by ‘guess who’ a Bong. Where ever Bongs go they take this wretched ideology with them.

https://twitter.com/kaushikcbasu/status/1326005849077264385

“With Biden and Harris in office the whole world will shift a little to the (social and cultural) left. This is good news. Left is right.”

Former Chief Economist of the World Bank and Ex-RBI head.

Sumit
Sumit
3 years ago

Apparently Biden has some distant relatives living in India since the East India Company / British Raj colonial era.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/joe-bidens-distant-relatives-living-in-nagpur-since-1873-2323428

Prats
Prats
3 years ago
Reply to  Sumit

Reminds me of the story before the 2002 FIFA world cup.

A lady in Assam was claiming that England’s star striker Michael Owen was her love child or something. It was major news for a few days.

thewarlock
thewarlock
3 years ago

https://www.divyabhaskar.co.in/local/gujarat/ahmedabad/news/after-rajasthan-bengal-madhya-pradesh-now-the-ban-on-fireworks-in-delhi-will-also-be-a-firecracker-in-gujarat-127887416.html

A freedom loving people

“Gujarat Govt says Festivals will help counter the depression caused by Wuhan Virus, hence there will be no ban on fire crackers.”

Brown
Brown
3 years ago

how many people saw shekar gupta with sashi tharoor?

timepaas
timepaas
3 years ago

https://www.unilad.co.uk/technology/china-launches-swarm-of-explosive-suicide-drones-from-back-of-a-lorry/

China Launches Swarm Of Explosive ‘Suicide Drones’ From Back Of A Lorry

After reports earlier this month that they had developed grenade-launching drones, the Chinese army has taken things to the next level by unveiling a new fleet of ‘suicide drones’.

——————————————————————————————

Coupled with facial technology, this could be devastating.

Sumit
Sumit
3 years ago
Reply to  timepaas

China is an innovation leader in consumer drones wouldn’t be surprised if they are the best at military drone tech as well.

timepaas
timepaas
3 years ago
Reply to  timepaas

True. They have also started prototyping 6G communication technology:

China sends ‘world’s first 6G’ test satellite into orbit

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-china-54852131

People think EM as a solution for drones; however, the equipment for jamming needs to emit radiation to do so. The defensive platforms are, therefore, easy to identify and neutralize.

Drones for battles are like conducting battles on steroids — whenever that happens. The 6G technology lead by China would tie nicely in automating combat.

Wars are going the terminator way; frightening.

Ali Choudhury
Ali Choudhury
3 years ago

A remembrance of a great uncle army officer who fought and died in WW2 by a university friend. Betrayed by the followers of Bose and beheaded by the Japanese at Hong Kong.

“We Remember. My Great-Uncle, Captain Mateen Ansari, GC, gave his life in the war against fascism at just 28 years of age.

Born in Hyderabad in 1915, Mateen Ansari was sent for officer training after enlisting in the British Indian Army. He trained at the Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst, and was awarded the King’s Commission.

A Captain in the 5th Battalion, 7th Rajput Regiment, Ansari was stationed at Hong Kong. When the Japanese invaded in December 1941, he was part of the gallant rearguard action defending the evacuation of the mainland. He was captured only after his battalion was practically wiped out by the enemy onslaught.

Although he was an officer, he opted to be incarcerated alongside his men in order to stiffen their resistance to Japanese propaganda. The Japanese attempted to make Ansari betray the British and join their Indian National Army, but though a passionate nationalist, Ansari refused.

Enraged, the Japanese subjected Ansari to starvation, mutilation and torture in the notorious Stanley Jail. But the Japanese could not break his spirit nor compromise his integrity. When he returned to the prisoner-of-war camps, he continued to organise resistance and to plan escapes.
Eventually, he was betrayed by pro-Japanese Indian nationalist prisoners and sentenced to death.

On 29 October 1943, he was taken out of solitary confinement alongside 32 condemned men and one woman. They were refused a visit from a priest, but were allowed five minutes together prior to execution.

In that five minutes, undaunted by the prospect of death, Ansari gave a powerful speech to his fellow prisoners, declaring:
“Everybody has to die sometime. Many die daily from disease, some suffer painful, lingering deaths. We will die strong and healthy for an ideal; not as traitors but nobly in our country’s cause. We cannot now escape the enemy’s sword, but no one should give in to tears or regrets, but instead face the enemy with a smile and die bravely.”

Captain Ansari was beheaded at Stanley Beach, Hong Kong, leaving behind a legacy of unequalled courage and resilience. He was awarded The George Cross, “for most conspicuous gallantry”.
The Times of India reported in 1945 that some of the 330 rescued Indians on board HM Hospital Ship Oxfordshire praised Captain Ansari, calling him, “one of the greatest heroes of the prison camps at Hong Kong”.”

Bhimrao
Bhimrao
3 years ago
Reply to  Ali Choudhury

“he was taken out of solitary confinement alongside 32 condemned men and one woman.”
Were all the 34 Indians beheaded?

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago
Reply to  Ali Choudhury

@Ali

This might interest u, i felt it was ok-ish

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Forgotten_Army_-_Azaadi_Ke_Liye

thewarlock
thewarlock
3 years ago

The leftist radical haleem and fake hindutuva regionalist shiv sena clowns alliance has not been allowed to continue their unchecked attack on the free press.

https://www.republicworld.com/amp/india-news/general-news/arnab-goswami-arrested-live-updates-amid-nationwide-support-arnab-roars-people-will-win.html

The supreme court has shown its commitment to justice again.

Jai Shree Ameen

Milan Todorovic
Milan Todorovic
3 years ago

Sebastian Kurz: Islamism (political Islam) is becoming a criminal act in Austria.

Milan Todorovic
Milan Todorovic
3 years ago

Specifically:
Outlawed are jihad, kill infidels, sharia and 77 virgins, remains only ‘40’ (=4T = T*(aqiyya + alaq + alaq + alaq))

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago

https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/after-dazzling-debut-tejashwi-must-not-become-the-nearly-man-2323990?amp=1

“Both in Bihar and elsewhere, the anti-BJP opposition will have to decide if the price of not dealing with Owaisi is politically manageable. Is allying with an explicitly Muslim political party in post-Partition India political suicide? The precedent of Kerala suggests that it is not, but it isn’t clear that Kerala’s lessons are relevant in the Hindi/Hindu heartland. ”

Less-Hindu space

https://theprint.in/opinion/nda-won-in-bihar-by-reminding-people-of-jungle-raj-but-data-shows-its-a-myth/541906/

NDA won in Bihar by reminding people of ‘Jungle Raj’. But data shows it’s a myth

Indian progressives ☝️

Prats
Prats
3 years ago
Reply to  Saurav

The data analytics is so bad it’s making me cry from laughter and pity for Indian academia.

That guy is an assistant professor at TISS and gives policy recommendations. When Indian progressives claim they have more ‘intellectuals’ in their ranks, do they mean these kinds of jokers?

But I know the best argument against this non-sense. Ask him to put Kerala in those graphs. None of the arguments are going to work.

thewarlock
thewarlock
3 years ago

https://www.opindia.com/2020/11/viral-video-muslim-man-voted-for-tejashwi-his-wife-voted-for-modi/

“Muslim man voted for Tejashwi, his wife voted for Modi: Viral video shows how women voted in record number to ensure NDA victory in Bihar”

Halal Haleem Owaisi

Narasingha Deva
Narasingha Deva
3 years ago

https://theprint.in/india/governance/modi-govt-amends-telecom-suspension-rules-restricts-internet-shutdowns-to-15-days/542860/

Modi govt amends telecom suspension rules, restricts internet shutdowns to 15 days

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-edit-page/defending-modis-reforms-record-chidambaram-shifted-goalpost-from-growth-delivered-by-a-pm-to-growth-in-his-tenure/

“For a moment, let us play by his rule and treat the growth delivered by a PM as synonymous with that taking place during his tenure. By this metric, Singh delivered 7.7% growth over ten years, Modi 6.8% over six years, Vajpayee 5.9% over six years and Rao 5.1% over five years. The obfuscation of the question thus does make Singh the best performing PM, as claimed by Chidambaram. But it also makes Rao the worst performing PM.

Turn next to Singh whom Chidambaram considers “the reformer par excellence.” When Vajpayee lost the 2004 election, he bequeathed to Singh an economy that had grown 7.9% in 2003-04. This growth had been the result of sustained reforms, especially during the last four years of his tenure. The question one must ask is exactly what reforms did Singh do to “deliver” 7.9% growth in 2004-05 and even higher rates in the following four years?

During a public debate with an erstwhile colleague of Chidambaram, I asked him to name three major reforms to which the high growth during the Singh era could be attributed. Unsurprisingly, no answer was forthcoming. Chidambaram has likewise chosen to sidestep this critical question, resting his claim of Singh as the top reformer on the growth rate during his tenure.”

Prats
Prats
3 years ago

Obama’s new memoirs have ruffled some feathers in India.

https://theprint.in/world/rahul-gandhi-lacks-either-aptitude-or-passion-to-master-subject-says-obama-in-new-memoir/543228/

“Rahul Gandhi had “a nervous, unformed quality about him, as if he were a student who’d done the coursework and was eager to impress the teacher but deep down lacked either the aptitude or the passion to master the subject.””

Ali Choudhury
Ali Choudhury
3 years ago

Happy Diwali to all those celebrating.

timepaas
timepaas
3 years ago

Remote procedure by a London-based surgeon on a Californian banana!

https://twitter.com/thefuturisthq/status/1324842987625553922

Brown
Brown
3 years ago

today’s cut the clutter by shekar gupta is about the amenia-azeri war, and how azeris won with Israeli and turkish drones.
can some one give an update on the indian situation in this respect?

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago
Reply to  Brown

I dont know much, from what i have read, it seems like this drone warfare is a big leap which has the potential to make tank warfare obsolete. And India is not going great guns on drone front.

Now some commentators here have earlier commented that drones can be ‘blinded’ through some communications jammers and all. And India is doing good on that. Though i have my doubts.

Bhimrao
Bhimrao
3 years ago
Reply to  Saurav
Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago
Reply to  Bhimrao

I dont think India will lose, considering the terrain is such that India can fight to a stalemate. Especially if u just have to hold the line. Similar to Pak-India.

Also i am not sure how a pro Russian leader could have helped Armenia in this case. Short of siding with Armenia , i think the Russians extracted Armenia’s chestnuts out of fire.

Bhimrao
Bhimrao
3 years ago
Reply to  Saurav

I don’t think they can whoop our ass via infantry but drones and swarms I am not so sure.

Janamejaya
Janamejaya
3 years ago
Reply to  Brown

The Indian armed forces have been using surveillance drones from 1999, ever since India urgently bought them from Israel during the Kargil war.

Since then we have been using them heavily all along the LOC, Indo-Pak and Indo-Chinese borders as well as the Indian ocean. Most Indian drones are Israely made Herons and are used for surveillance. However, India also has armed Harop drones (which are basically kamikaze dones. They fly around until they see a target, bang into it and explode.) which are mostly meant to take out enemy radar units. Also its a bit hazy but there have been news items claiming that India has bought some armed drones from Israel (newer versions of Heron).

So in balance India probably has a good grasp of drone warfare; much better than Pakistan’s and probably even China (though China is catching up fast). Where India really lacks is development and manufacturing of drones within India. This is where a country like Turkey is miles ahead, not to mention Israel and the USA.

Another point I would like to mention is that just because drones exist does not mean tank warfare is obsolete. Drones cannot make offensives on their own. Combined arms operations which include tanks, infantry, artillery and air support which includes drones will be the future.

Bhimrao
Bhimrao
3 years ago
Reply to  Janamejaya

@Janamejaya
Why is Turkey doing so well in gola-barud? Is it proximity to Europe? Confidence? Culture? Policy?
Roketsan, TAI, Baykar,Otokar, MILGEM and what not, these guys are killing it.

Saurav
Saurav
3 years ago
Reply to  Bhimrao

Asabiyyah

Ugra
Ugra
3 years ago
Reply to  Bhimrao

@Bhimrao

The weak play asymmetric games. Katta made from Hero Splendor tubes.

Janamejaya
Janamejaya
3 years ago
Reply to  Bhimrao

Turkey has a well-developed military industrial complex. They make artillery, tanks, warships not just drones. Perhaps closeness to Europe, being a member of NATO, never fucking around with socialism and a high human development index all helped. The USA keeps nuclear bombs and missiles targeting Russia in Turkey, they are that close.

India’s military industrial complex is tied up in publically held PSUs and govt owned ordnance factories. They are pathetic to say the least.

I once visited the Dehradun ordnance factory as a school trip. Those guys basically do nothing but chill out on govt. money. They cannot even manufacture anything to correct specifications leave alone trying to improve upon or innovate stuff. The Indian army pays the cost of shoddy manufacturing quality of grenades, rifle ammunition though jawan’s lives.

I wish some govt has the balls to do a fire-sale of these ordnance factories and defence PSUs to the private sector. Let Ambani or Adani become super duper ultra rich but atleast lay the foundations of Indian defence-industrial complex.

BTW in the high tension days following the Balakot strikes, India shot down many Pakistani drones through both surface to air missiles and fighter aircraft shooting them down. So even though everyone is going gaga over drones as of now, its yet to be seen how well they do in a contested airspace where the opposing power has even a passable grade of anti-air defenses.

thewarlock
thewarlock
3 years ago
Reply to  Janamejaya

I have said over and over again. India needed an Ataturk. Instead, we got a pacifist fakir and a virtue signaling leftist. Instead of blood and iron, we got bullshit and idealism. Our Bismarck, our iron man, should have been the first PM. What a fail. And we still suffer till this day.

Brown Pundits