Header Image: US Bases in Mid East. Iran is the only Sovereign country in the Mid East without US Bases
“God created war so that Americans would learn geography” ― Mark Twain
Why are the Gulf Countries not attacking Iran. Because they are extremely vulnerable
a) Resource and Economic Vulnerability
b) Political, Regimes can be overthrown
c) Targets because they host US Bases.
The US though they have bases in the Gulf, have not come to the aid of Gulf Countries. To the contrary they are evacuating personnel from the Gulf.
Bahrain: Politically Vulnerable: Hosts the biggest US base in the Gulf. It is also has Shia 50% with Sunni regime. The Shia majority have been very restive and any war related turmoil can allow the Shia to overthrow the Sunni Regime. (Shias were previously the majority, being approximately 55% in 1979. However, the increased naturalization of Sunni migrants and persecution of Shia Muslims by the ruling Sunni Al Khalifa family led to an alteration in the demographics.)
Qatar: Has the biggest LNG production and they have shut down production. Why: Cant afford to have drones or missiles or even debris hitting the storage. The whole storage will go up like a Nuclear Bomb
Qatar accounts for 20% of global LNG exports, with 80% of those volumes to Asia.
Saudi Arabia: Like Qatar Saudi Arabia is Resource attack vulnerable. Oil production can go up in flames even though the oil is less volatile. Also with the Gulf or Hormuz shut down oil exports are nearly nill. However, they have pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. So Saudis need to also keep Houthis happy so that the oil that reaches Yanbu and loaded into Tankers is not attacked by Houthis. (Only about 1 million barrells/day to Yanbu, compared to 6.8 miilion Barrells/day thru Gulf Hormuz.
Saudi too has significant Shia population (10-15%) located near the oil fields in the Eastern Province (Najran, and Medina)
UAE/Dubai; Very Economically vulnerable. Falling Debris has closed Dubai Airport, the busiest in the world. Dubai is an Worlds Financial center in the League of Hong Kong, London and New York. 90*% of Dubai are expatriates, some extremely wealthy. Revenues from oil and natural gas account for less than 5% of the Emirate’s revenues. If Iran hits world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa thats the end of Dubais Economic Wonder.
So as you can see the Gulf countries need to play nice with Iran until the wsr End.
How will the War End. (some possibilities)
a) Iran Runs out of Missiles. (also low probability of layers of Iran Leadership Killed)
b) US Missiles are depleted
c) US has an Economic Shock (eg Stocks, DJI falls significantly eg to 40,000. Or US Treasury Bond yields spike to above 5%
When the dust settles regardless of Iran having lost it is going to be new Landscape in the Gulf. The US bases are most likely gone. When personnel are evacuated the looters come in like ants to dead carcass.
Saudi East-West Pipeline can pump oil from the country’s main eastern oilfields to the Red Sea and has capacity to transport around five million bpd if Yanbu has the capacity to load that amount of crude the pipeline can carry onto ships, traders and buyers said. Crude loadings at Yanbu hit a peak of just under 1.5 million bpd in April 2020
https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/tankers/aramco-moves-oil-flows-to-red-sea-as-hormuz-grinds-to-a-halt
What the map below shows is that, due to a peculiar correlation of religious history and anaerobic decomposition of plankton, almost all the Persian Gulfs fossil fuels are located underneath Shiites. This is true even in Sunni Saudi Arabia, where the major oil fields are in the Eastern Province, which has a majority Shiite population.
https://theintercept.com/2016/01/06/one-map-that-explains-the-dangerous-saudi-iranian-conflict/
formerly brown, thank you for the comment a few days back. Made me realize the geopolitical ramifications of the Gulf
For an update on the war by Yves Smith (Jewish with close contacts in Israel in Israel)
A few excerpts give an idea of the tone.
The multi-front retaliation is almost certainly depleting US air defense stocks even faster than expected, as attested by a Jerusalem Post story, US considering moving additional THAAD and Patriot air defense systems to Middle East, experts say on how the US is considering raiding its already-understocked defense cupboard in other theaters to bolster Operation Epic Fury.
A sign of desperation is his (Trump’s) nutty idea of having the US provide naval escorts to tankers in the Strait, as well as have the US provide what he called political risk, actually war risk, insurance. The convoy scheme makes the Charge of the Light Brigade look like a dandy idea.
But as you’ll see from a Janta Ka video below at 5:50, in keeping with the slaughter at a girls’ school and a neonatal hospital, the US and Israel are hitting many if not mainly civilian targets, such as hospitals. This implies that the objective is to terrorize the population to force a regime change, as opposed to prosecute a war and conquer the state.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/03/iran-war-more-on-why-us-israel-success-impossible-as-israel-and-us-operations-take-more-hits-trump-proposes-unhinged-strait-of-hormuz-escort-scheme-western-media-misinforming-public.html
RecoveringNewsJunkie
Than you for suggesting I write about Former head of the Directorate of Military Intelligence, Major General Suresh Sallay.. He was key figure in fighting the LTTE.
There are accusation his arrest is a quid pro by govt to the Tamil Diaspora who anybody connected to the LTTE defeat.
(Salley is of Malay (Javanese) Heritage and a Muslim)
I don think it is important even for Sri Lanka. Sad tho, for this to happen to a kind of War Hero
If interested more in this article
https://www.dailymirror.lk/plus/Arrest-of-Maj-Gen-Suresh-Sallayandthe-allegations-by-Azad-Maulana/352-334123
I find this…quite confusing and am unclear as to why the government would agree to such a ‘quid pro quo’ and to what benefit?
Apparently Tamil Diaspora gave money to this govt to get elected.
Are they political donors of the size to have this level of influence over the government’s decision making? Or is this just yet another version of “Iran jammed GPS and starlink is crashing now, US is ded” claims.
>When the dust settles regardless of Iran having lost it is going to be new Landscape in the Gulf. The US bases are most likely gone.
On what basis do you think that the ‘US bases are most likely gone’? why would the US leave after as you say the likely outcome is that ‘Iran is defeated’?
I think you have an antipathy towards the US, that’s sort of clouding your judgement slightly on this…
Why would the Saudis, or the King of Bahrain, or the Qataris, not pay the US to continue providing the protection as they have been all along? If anything, they may end up paying more, no?
Iran is going to hyper-militarise and even be more of a proxy for the Sino-Russia/North Korea Axis/Alliance.
The Western populations have no interest to be Global Policeman
and if that does play out that way, why wouldn’t the rest of West Asia want to hang on to Umreeki Protection?
The West doesn’t care about being ‘global policeman’ of course, not unless it benefits from it.
On what basis do you think that the ‘US bases are most likely gone’? why would the US leave after as you say the likely outcome is that ‘Iran is defeated’?
a) The US has pulled out most of its personnel from the Gulf (will need to look for article)
b) Did not defend the Gulf States including the Saudis at this critical juncture. So why rely or trust in the US to defend them.
c) Having US bases there are big target. A big downside to Gulf States and no upside as they the Gulf is realizing
as you say the likely outcome is that ‘Iran is defeated’?
Did not say likely outcome. Said “When the dust settles regardless of Iran having lost”
It is pretty obvious the Gulf Status have realized the status quo. Maybe undisclosed phone calls with Iran.
Non of the Gulf States have sent Jets or whatever against Iran Iran will attack the US bases, if there is activity. Iran wont attack Gulf States resources or Economic Targets. So when the war is over the Gulf can get back to business, sans US
Sorry, but there’s a whole lot of wishful reading of tea-leaves in this tarot card reading.
As far as I know the US did not deploy attack aircraft/jest from the Gulf to attack Iran
Why, one possibility lack of personnel
Is this post satire?
How so ?
Iran has Baghdad Bob, Pakistan has the DG ISPR Ahmed Chaudhary, and BP has…
Another article well worth reading
Decades of international sanctions have left Tehran with one of the weakest air forces in the region, an aging fleet incapable of penetrating the air defenses of Israel or any major Gulf state. Iran cannot deliver a nuclear weapon by aircraft. It cannot do so by sea with any reliability. The ballistic missile is the only component that gives the rest of the nuclear program strategic value.
What makes this failure even more consequential is who stepped in to exploit it.
Over the past two years, China has emerged as the principal external supplier of Iran’s ballistic missile program, providing everything from chemical precursors for solid rocket fuel to satellite guidance through its BeiDou-3 navigation network, which replaced American GPS across Iran’s entire military architecture.
By the time Operation Epic Fury launched, Iran possessed the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, an estimated 2,000 missiles of varying ranges dispersed across hardened underground facilities, rebuilt and resupplied in large part by Chinese industrial networks.
Under Beijing’s Wing: Iran’s Arsenal
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/under-beijings-wing-irans-arsenal
Yes if Iran survives this; it joins this quadrilateral axis of the 4 Eurasian powers.
Sino-Russia + N. KorIran ..
Iran is already being supplied by Ballistic Missiles and solid rocket fuel etc.
looks like it
The Shahed … has allowed states like Russia and Iran a cheap way to impose disproportionate costs
I wonder if the Americans are going to try bringing Venezuela crude to balance out the shutdown in ME although I would be surprised if they are able to do that in any meaningful way. They have clearly miscalculated this one very badly and whole world is going to pay a heavy price.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/04/stock-market-today-live-updates-iran-war.html
Dow falls 300 points, oil prices rise as traders watch U.S.-Iran war: Live updates
Dow falls 300 points, oil prices rise as traders watch U.S.-Iran war: Live updates
Dow is no approx 48,000. Needs to get to 45,000 for Trump to worry
Same Crude needs to get to USD 100+/barrel
Currently Murban is 92, Brent 83, WTI 78
Murban oil is produced from onshore fields of Abu Dhabi, UAE. This premium grade oil is valued for its exceptional refining characteristics.
it is said that iranian arab sunnys have most oil in their province.so …
no Khuzestan is Shi’ite
the Sunni Arabs are more on the Hormozgan coast. most are Shi’ite though (like the Azeris are entirely Shi’ite and the Kurds are fairly Shi’ite).
the only Sunni minority are the Baloch
Even in areas of government where no law exists banning Sunnis, they often face consistent and systematic exclusion. No Sunnis have ever been appointed as government ministers in Iran since the 1979 revolution, nor have they ever been selected to serve as provincial governors or mayors even in provinces with significant Sunni populations. For example, in Sistan-Balochistan, where Sunnis are a majority, less than 15% of government workers are Sunni.
Today, Sunni Islam in Iran is still concentrated primarily in regions with large populations of ethnic Kurds, Balochs and Turkmen. These include the provinces of West Azerbaijan, Kurdistan and Kermanshah (known collectively as Iranian Kurdistan), Golestan and North Khorasan (known collectively as Turkmen Sahra), and Sistan-Balochistan. Some ethnically Persian and Arab Sunni communities also exist in Southern and Western Iran.
http://www.us-iran.org/resources/2019/10/16/myth-vs-fact-irans-sunni-muslims#:~:text=FACT:%20Although%20Sunnis%20make%20up,the%20name%20of%20national%20security.
“Iran’s Regime Won’t Fall. It was Built for This. Iran Expert Trita Parsi on Regional Ramifications”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3TVxgh-R-c
Oman’s capital Muscat is emerging as a leading airport for repatriation flights from the Middle East, at a time when the airspace of Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE is closed, according to Flightradar24
More than 30% of all movements are private flights.
Alon Mizrahi, Israeli journalist and peace activist. *Alon Mizrahi is an Israeli writer, political analyst, and peace activist known for his staunch criticism of Zionism and Israeli policies regarding Palestine. He identifies as an Arab Jew—specifically with Moroccan-Jewish heritage—and has been outspoken about the need for a just peace in the region.
“We are witnessing history. Iran is, to the surprise of everyone, fucking up US bases so thoroughly and extensively and so decisively that the world isn’t ready to see it.
In 4 days, Iran has managed to expand its scope of military domination in the region. Iran has destroyed the most precious, most expensive military bases, assets and equipment in the whole world. American bases in Bahrain and Kuwait and Qatar and Saudi Arabia are some of the biggest military installations in the entire world. These are assets that took trillions to build over the course of several decades. We’re talking a major chunk of military expenditure for over 30 years, going up in smoke
.
We are seeing radars costing hundreds of millions of dollars a piece being destroyed in an instant. We are seeing entire military bases being abandoned and burned, decimated and destroyed. And I’m telling you from my knowledge, the US has never suffered such devastation in its entire history, except maybe Pearl Harbor but that was one attack.
No enemy in a normal war has done to the US military what the Iranians are doing to the US military right now. This defies belief. The military situation is so bad that censorship blocks practically every piece of new information about this war. If you’ve noticed we’re being exposed to less and less every day.
Thirty-five years ago during the first Iraq war, we were being shown endless footage from Iraq. The smart bombs and the cameras were a novelty back then, but every night we were being shown night footage. Now we are seeing almost no video.
Understand this! This is supposedly the worlds biggest military power having the worlds biggest air capabilities and for 4 days when the US is on the offensive, supposedly and is supposed to be breaking through Iranian defenses we are seeing NO signs of American domination over Iranian skies. Where is all the footage of our planes flying over Tehran or any part of Iran for that matter?
American soldiers can not even dream of setting foot in Iran. And to understand how desperate this war is, that on the 4th day you’re already hearing the craziest suggestions and ideas from the Trump administration. They are suggesting to send military escorts for oil carrying vessels coming out of the Persian gulf. What are you even talking about?! You want to send American ships into the range of thousands of Iranian missiles? NO ONE can pass through the strait of Hormuz right now.
The Iranians have been preparing for this for decades. They’re flaunting this idea of arming Kurdish militias to invade Iran. What the FUCK are you talking about? Have you seen a map of Iran?! It seems like the Trump administration has never seen a map of Iran! Do you know how massive it is? What do you mean invade Iran?! You think a 10,000 man militia can invade Iran?! Or even 50,000?! Or 100,000?! Iran will swallow them.
The US and Israel have already lost this war. The US and Israel can kill millions of civilians in their homes. They have huge bombs and can explode buildings, but they will not win this war. Iranians military infrastructure and weaponry is so far underground ALL OVER IRAN. There is no way for the Americans and definitely not the Israelis to reach any of it. They are FUCKED.
They have started something they have no chance of bringing to an end. When this is over the US will never come back to West Asia. There will be no American presence in the Middle East. I’m telling you this now with certainty.”
RecoveringNewsJunkie FYI
Part about Gulf Bases at 8:23
Col Douglas MacGregor also reading the Tea Leaves
https://youtu.be/NZi0cJy8Eic?t=503
“America and Israel’s War with Iran”
The SETA Foundation at Washington DC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFfb0nuI6O8