Prof. John Mearsheimer: Dismantling Iran, The Four Part Strategy (Iran Open Thread)

Prof John Mearsheimer argues that Western media misrepresents events in Iran as an organic, popular uprising against a mismanaged regime. Instead, they claim the unrest follows a familiar U.S.–Israeli four-step regime-change playbook. Economic warfare: The U.S. imposes sanctions that deliberately damage Iran’s economy, creating widespread hardship. Protests then arise largely in response to these externally induced economic conditions. Fueling protests: The U.S. and Israel allegedly encourage, organize, and support mass protests, citing evidence such as Israeli media reports, statements by U.S. officials, Mossad involvement, and the use of Starlink terminals by protesters after Iran shut down the internet. Disinformation campaign: Western audiences are told the protests are purely internal and democratic, while messaging inside Iran is designed to convince people the regime is collapsing and momentum is unstoppable. Military intervention (planned but not executed): Once the regime appears near collapse, U.S. and Israeli military force would be used to strike infrastructure and elites to finish it off. According to the speaker, this strategy has failed because protests have sharply declined and the Iranian government’s crackdown has largely succeeded. Israeli commentators and even President Trump’s shifting rhetoric are cited as acknowledgments of failure. The concern now, they argue, is that Trump—having expected the regime to be on its last legs—may consider military force to “rescue” a collapsing strategy, despite reduced U.S. combat power in the region and Iran’s stated intention to retaliate directly against U.S. and Israeli targets.