Red Fort Attack and Aftermath: Initial Thoughts by Manav S.

Posted on Categories UncategorizedTags , , , , , , , 1 Comment on Red Fort Attack and Aftermath: Initial Thoughts by Manav S.

 

Red Fort Attack and Aftermath: Initial Thoughts by Manav S.

Last evening’s devastating car-explosion near the Red Fort in Delhi is not only a cruel assault on innocent lives but an assault on the very symbolism of our nation. According to early reports, a vehicle detonated close to the busy metro zone at the historic Red Fort complex, killing at least eight people and injuring more than twenty.  The government has invoked anti-terror legislation and launched a full probe under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA). 

First, we must recognise the human tragedy behind the headlines. Lives shattered, families devastated, fear spreading in a city already grappling with chronic insecurity. For those of us of South Asian heritage who carry memories of communal strife, of migration and displacement, this attack touches a deeper chord of vulnerability and of collective memory. Hospitals have reported frantic cries, missing persons, relatives screaming for loved ones. 

Second, the choice of location amplifies the message. The Red Fort is not just another landmark: it is an emblem of India’s sovereignty, its layered history, its identity. To strike here is to strike at the heart of public confidence and to send a message of audacious defiance. As scholars writing on “brown diasporic publics” know, our public spaces carry meaning not just for those inside India, but for those of us abroad who anchor our identity in ‘homeland’ narratives. This attack disrupts that anchor.

Third, we must resist both fear and simplistic narratives. The invocation of terror laws suggests the state is treating this as a planned act of violence, not an accident.  But let us guard against quick binaries: Us vs Them, Hindus vs Muslims, India vs Outsiders. In a plural society like ours, sweeping communal attributions too often deepen fault-lines rather than heal them. Our commentary must demand both justice and wisdom: meticulous investigation, transparent process, and safeguarding civil rights in the process.

Fourth, what does this mean for our shared public culture? For someone born in Punjab and now living across borders, the explosion challenges our sense of movement, of belonging, of normalcy. We think of carrying family across continents, of re-configuring identity in Washington–DC and Delhi , how do such apparently random acts of terror recalibrate the psychic cost of migration and the distance between home and homeland? The answer is: they make the cost higher, the emotional freight heavier.

Finally, the path forward must hold three imperatives: one, empathy – for all victims, irrespective of religion, class or residence; two, accountability – for whoever plotted, financed or enabled this attack; and three, renewal – of the public realm, the shouting panic, the fear-laden sighs, with something stronger: resilient civic culture, public institutions we trust, cross-community solidarity.

As a brown pundit, I urge our readership to see beyond the flashes of violence, beyond the political spin, and to ask the deeper questions: What kind of society are we building? What kind of public spaces do we imagine, and what cost are we willing to pay for them? For if we shrug now, the symbolic scar will grow — far after the immediate blast damage is repaired.

In that moment of stillness after the blast, we owe to our fellow citizens not just sorrow, but vigilant hope.

Free Speech

Posted on Categories UncategorizedLeave a comment on Free Speech

Free speech is inviolable, and unfortunately I can not restore the deleted thread (it’s been deleted from archives).

The notion that criticism of Pakistan, or of any country, should be off-limits on this platform contradicts everything Brown Pundits stands for. It is always better to err on the side of liberty than against it.

I am weary of the threats and emotional blackmail that appear whenever freedom is exercised. BP will continue to stand, whatever exoduses may come.

Two of my recent essays

Posted on Categories Uncategorized13 Comments on Two of my recent essays

I have two pieces of writing I want to share. The first is an essay I wrote on Iqbal for his birthday (9th November), exploring how we have misread him, and how, in a way, he misreads himself.

https://inkelab.substack.com/p/iqbal-an-uninteresting-poet

The second piece discusses how book reviews can nudge critical readership in Pakistan. It includes a situational analysis of reading habits in the country, the role of reviews and sugarcoating, and the emerging Bookstagram and BookTok communities.

https://dunyadigital.co/books/jumpstarting-critical-reading-the-power-of-a-book-review

Would love to know what you people think about both. Thanks!

Book Review: Empire’s Son, Empire’s Orphan. Ikbal Shah and Idries Shah (of Sufis fame)

Posted on Categories UncategorizedTags , , , , Leave a comment on Book Review: Empire’s Son, Empire’s Orphan. Ikbal Shah and Idries Shah (of Sufis fame)

 

Idries Shah (1924-1996), a British citizen of Afghan and Indian origin, became world famous with his books about Sufi-ism (especially his magnum opus, “The Sufis”), selling over 15 million copies worldwide. In the course of this career, he also hinted (more than hinted, he wrote several books under other names in which he built up these claims about himself) that he was a sufi master himself, descended from an ancient and aristocratic family of Afghan Sufis who trace their descent to the Prophet Mohammed and are now bringing this ancient wisdom to the western public. His father, Syed Ikbal Shah, had settled in England and written several books about the esoteric east, but the careers of both father and son were dogged by accusations of making up stories and exaggerating their depth of knowledge about these matters. Professor Niles Green (who is the Ibn Khaldun Endowed Chair in World History at UCLA) has spent a long time researching both father and son and has now written a biography to settle this controversy and tell us who they really were.

So we learn that Ikbal Shah was a descendant of Jan Fishan Khan (famous indian actor Naseeruddin shah and retired general Zamiruddin Shah are also descended from him), an afghan who had sided with the British expedition to Kabul in the first Afghan war, and who escaped to india with the survivors of that expedition. For his loyalty, he was given a small estate in Sardhana, near Delhi. In 1857 Jan Fishan Khan again proved loyal to the British and was rewarded with the title of Nawab. It is here that Ikbal Shah grew up, and somehow decided to travel to Edinburgh to study medicine just before the first world war.

In Scotland, Ikbal fell in love with a Scotswoman and they married against the wishes of his dad, who therefore cut him off. Ikbal Shah proved to be a capable and energetic person who managed to make a life for himself in England as an expert on Afghanistan (where he had never been) to various branches of British academia and the British govt. Nile leaves us in no doubt that Ikbal Shah was a serial fantasist who made up wild stories about Bolsheviks and their operations in Afghanistan to British officials who sort of knew he was fake, but found him useful. To his credit, he was able to sell enough stories about the exotic east to survive in England and even joined the BBC during WW2 to make propaganda broadcasts for the British empire.

Ikbal Shah had three children (Omar Ali Shah, Idries Shah and Amina Shah) who grew up in the UK and Idries Shah followed in his dad’s footsteps to become an expert on the mysterious east (Omar Ali Shah also sold himself as a sufi teacher). Starting as an expert on “oriental magic”, he soon invented himself as a Sufi master and acquired several high profile fans, including the poet Robert Graves and the writer Doris Lessing. His book on sufism remains a bestseller and he wrote dozens of other books on various aspects of sufi-ism, all of which continue to sell. Nile Green regards this as more or less the result of gullible people being fooled by Shah, but the fact is that if you read the books in question (I have read several of them), they do seem to have genuine insights into human psychology and the various “teaching stories” Idries Shah claimed to have collected do indeed have the capacity to teach useful lessons for life. From within his own world, he can claim that what looks like fakery is just how this esoteric knowledge works in this world. After all, we are talking about sufi-ism and it is by no means clear how one can distinguish a sufi charlatan from a real sufi, since “genuine sufi-ism” itself thrives on mystery and misdirection, almost by design.

The fact that the brothers Idries and Omar Ali Shah falsely claimed at one point to have the oldest manuscript of the rubayat of Omar Khayyam (Professor Green makes a solid case that they made up the whole story) is itself enough to condemn them as charlatans, but as Professor Rawlinson once said ” Shah cannot be taken at face value. His own axioms preclude the very possibility.” If Sufis are enlightened beings who possess some esoteric knowledge that is not available to ordinary mortals, and if they are supposed to help you by telling you what you need, not what is “true” or false, it is by no means clear that this book and its careful examinations are the end of the matter. As Idries Shah’s epitaph states: “Do not look at my outward shape, but take what is in my hand”.  The story continues..

By the way, the title “empire’s son, empire’s orphan” is a good indicator of the fact that the professor also has to labor under the limitations of his own field. Basically, it means nothing, but if you are into postcolonial writing then it is the fashion to connect every biography to “empire” and its discontents. It adds nothing to the story, but luckily it also takes nothing away.

Widening inter-state economic inequality

Posted on Categories Uncategorized12 Comments on Widening inter-state economic inequality

So a quick follow-up to my previous post wherein I had noted the problem of the poorer states underperforming the richer ones on economic growth, widening the economic inequality between the two groups and driving risks to the federal polity.

The  chart below compares the per capita income of TN vs each poor state for 2013-14 and 2024-25. In 2013-14, TN’s PCI was already 3.0x of UP. That number has since ballooned to 3.64x by 2024-25. TN has delivered a pretty solid annual growth rate of 6.1% while UP has lagged behind significantly with a lackluster growth rate of 4.3%. I pick TN for a few reasons  – one, TN growth rate is close to the median growth rate of the rich group. More importantly, the politics of the state has long drawn on the grievance of Northern/Hindi hegemony, insufficient federalism and the state getting an unfairly low share of central tax devolution. Thirdly, I am being a bit petty – a lot of people on the Hindu Right have a very unfavorable view of TN (because of its anti-Hindu Dravidian polity) which drives them to be in denial of TN’s economic success. There is this hilarious claim about UP overtaking TN on the economic front because of its nominal GDP pulls ahead of TN, totally ignoring the fact the relevant metric should be per capita.

Anyway, back to the analysis. this chart should really alarm Modi’s policymaking team. Except for Odisha, every other state in the group has become poorer relative to TN over the past 11 years. The only other state with a respectable performance is Assam where the gap has widened only modestly. If you look at the average of the group, TN was 1.8x richer in 2013-14 which has widened to 216% by 2024-25.

(Kerala is not really a poor state but I have included it in this group it lags behind on industrialization)

For the record, replicating the same analysis for the richer group, Delhi has been the biggest underperformer. Followed by the two BJP-ruled states – Maharashtra and Haryana. TN is now slightly richer than Haryana, whereas in 2013-14, Haryana was ~20% richer than TN. Similar story for Maharashtra – TN is now 11% richer on a per capita basis. On the other hand, Karnataka has modestly outperformed TN, in large part due to the significant growth momentum from offshoring.  Telengana, carved out as a separate state, has benefitted having a major economic hub like Hyderabad apart from with its positive impact spread over a smaller economic base.

 

Update: A reader tells me the charts are difficult to read. You can check out the charts and the data in excel format here

How effective are the “Double Engine” sarkars? Not much…

Posted on Categories Uncategorized3 Comments on How effective are the “Double Engine” sarkars? Not much…

Since BJP captured power in the centre in 2014 with a stunning majority, the party has made a concerted attempt to deepen its dominance by making strong bids for power in the states. And it has worked extremely well for the party. It has captured power in states which were virgin territories for the party (Haryana, Assam), has staged an impressive bounceback in UP after more than a decade of political wilderness (or vanavas, if you will), has moved from being the junior partner to becoming the dominant party in the highly critical state of Maharashtra (the largest economy in the country) and formed its first single party government in the South (Karnataka).

A common feature of the party’s state election campaign has been the appeal of the “double engine” sarkar, a not-so-subtle message to the electorate that a BJP/NDA government in the state could mean greater resource support from the centre for the state’s development. And that has been delivered in some visible ways – Uttar Pradesh, the second poorest  among the larger states, has six metros while the richest and the highly urbanised ones have one, or a maximum of two.

But has the “Double Engine” promise actually worked on the ground? Is it the case that NDA-ruled states have outperformed on economic growth? This question has additional relevance – since the 2024 Lok sabha election setback, the growing chorus in RW circles has been that there are not many “big bang” economic reforms left for the entre to do and it is the states which need to do the heavy lifting. Since BJP positions itself as the natural party of governance, the question therefor is whether it has a demonstrable model of economic governance for the states.

A look at the annual growth in per capita income (real) of the larger states (population > 10 million) over the last 11 years indicates that NDA ruled states have been relative underperformers. For this exercise, I am defining a NDA-ruled state as one where the state BJP unit was either the ruling party or a major partner in the ruling coalition (Bihar and Maharashtra). I exclude states like Andhra and Tamil Nadu, where BJP was a minor force, even though ruled by NDA alliance partners.

Of the 19 large states, seven states have grown at an annual rate above the simple average of the group (4.9%). Of this, only two were NDA-ruled states for 5 years or more- Gujarat and Assam. The remaining 5 states are non-NDA states. Four of the five southern states share the honor (with Kerala being the sole exclusion) of being outperformers. Conversely, 8 out of the 12 states which underperformed the group average were NDA-ruled ones for more than 5 years.

 

Source: Government of India

For all the hype from his supporters regarding Yogi’s economic record, he does quite badly, underperforming the average by 0.6% despite an extremely low base.

NDA ruled states also do pretty badly if one focusses only on the richer, more industrialized states. Only Gujarat, with its well-established Gujarat Model, initiated under Modi’s CM’ship outperforms the group average. The weak performance of Haryana, a small state with a highly advantageous location (near the National Capital region) where the BJP has ruled uninterruptedly, is especially disappointing. It indicates that BJP as a ruling party, has not yet been able to fashion an effective industrial policy.

Beyond the issue of party politics, the real worry is that the poorer states are significantly underperforming the richer ones (avg of 5.5% vs 4.5% for the poorer states) thereby further widening the inter-state inequality and putting increasing strain on the federal polity. Most of these states happen to be in the Hindi heartland – a region, where Modi swept twice with a seat share of 80% on more on the promise of acche din or economic prosperity. Well, it is the 12 year and the acche din is not yet in sight.  Disillusionment is setting in and that was surely a major driver for the 2024 setback. It could get worse in the next election. Time is running out for Modi and his party.

 

Update: A reader tells me the charts are difficult to read. You can check out the charts and the data in excel format here

The growing Pakistan-Afghan Conflict. What next?

Posted on Categories Geopolitics, UncategorizedTags , Leave a comment on The growing Pakistan-Afghan Conflict. What next?

Most of us keeping up with news from the sub-continent are aware by now of the recent escalation in the long-simmering friction between Pakistan and Afghanistan.  The historical ‘divide’ regarding the Durand Line is something that never really went away as much as the Pakistani state attempted to pretend that its a fait accompli.  And now with the Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan managing to to challenge the Pakistani state’s writ, and inflicting ever increasing costs on PakMil, the threats to punish Afghanistan further are flowing thick and fast from Islamabad.

Pakistan, obviously enjoys a military supremacy over Afghanistan in multiple orders of magnitude. But as we have seen in Ukraine, or even in Afghanistan over the last few decades, the underdog can inflict some serious costs. And keep it going.

Question is, where does Pakistan go from here? With the growing reported rapprochement between the Taliban and New Delhi, there’s every chance that the Afghan air defenses may be quickly ramped up from non-existent, to at least some level of deterrent.  Rumors are rife on the internet about Indian supply planes landing at Bagram.  And simply bombing Afghan border posts has diminishing returns.  The Taliban do not appear to be in any conciliatory mood.

In many ways, this has many parallels to India’s experience with Pakistan backed jihadi groups in the 30+ years starting from the late 1980s.  Its almost impossible to deter and defend against insurgency in mountainous terrain.  Especially when the insurgents find succor in the local populace.

So, what next for “Khyber Pakhtunkhwa” and Pakistan? How realistic is the possibility that the Pakistani military will be able to succeed “this time” when it has already ‘failed’ a few times post-9/11, and had to make repeated ‘peace’ deals with the TTP or its predecessors in the past?

The shooting war seems to have gone a bit quiet for now, but the war of words is quickly escalating.  It seems like the Taliban are being ‘good students’ of the ISI and have adopted the tactic of releasing catchy music videos to make propaganda points.

Mahabharata war and Yuga cycles

Posted on Categories Uncategorized3 Comments on Mahabharata war and Yuga cycles

Anyone who is slightly familiar with Hindu mythology or Hindu cosmology knows that ancient Indians were fond of extremely large time periods. According to traditionalists the war of Mahabharata happened more than 5000 years ago (3102 BCE). A Yuga is supposed to last for 1.08 million years. A Yuga cycle, consisting of 4 Yugas, is 4.32 million years long. Who came up with these numbers ?

The story behind these numbers is quite interesting. Although the word Yuga goes back to Vedic age, Vedic texts do not mention these numbers. The specific numbers were first introduced by Aryabhata, who was born in 476 CE. According to his definition a new Yuga begins whenever all five visible planets along with the Sun and the Moon have zero celestial longitude (we are using the current terminology here, Aryabhata used the word Yugapda to denote a Yuga). The first verse of Aryabhatia, his only surviving work, states the following :

Aryabhatia 1.1 : In a yuga cycle the revolutions of the Sun are 4,320,000, of the Moon 57,753,336, of the Earth eastward 1,582,237,500, of Saturn 146,564, of Jupiter 364224, of Mars 2,296,824, of Mercury and Venus the same as those of the Sun.

The accuracy levels of these estimates are reasonably high, ranging from 99.9 percent (period of Saturn) to 99.999 percent (period of Earth’s rotation). It is possible to get this level of accuracy from 20-30 years of naked eye observations. Not surprisingly, the exact numbers are all wrong. Assuming an error margin of 0.3 degrees for an observation, one needs 3600 years of sky watching to count the exact numbers of revolutions in 1.08 million years. Aryabhata definitely knew this but he also accepted the traditional view that the current Yuga started during the war of Mahabharata (Aryabhatia 1.3). Seven astronomical objects having celestial longitudes close to zero is a very strong condition, and the initial estimates he obtained from 20-30 years of observations were good enough to rule out all years in the past few thousand years except 3102 BCE. So he concluded that the beginning of the current Yuga and Mahabharata war happened in in 3102 BCE.

Aryabhatia 3.10 : When three Yugas and sixty times sixty years had elapsed (from the beginning of the Yuga cycle) then twenty three years of my life had passed.

Since he could directly see the positions of the celestial objects during 499 CE vernal equinox, the assumption that they all had zero longitude in 3102 BCE meant having observations separated by 3600 years. This allowed him to make extremely precise claims about their periods. At the same time he was forced to increase the length of a Yuga to 1.08 million years to ensure that all the celestial objects make complete revolutions.

Why did he come up with the concept of Yuga cycle and how did he know that we are in the fourth Yuga of the current Yuga cycle ? This is related to two abstract points corresponding to apsidal and nodal precession of Moon’s orbit. Aryabhata wanted to include them in the list of celestial objects but his initial estimates showed that their celestial longitudes were closer to -270 degrees and 180 degrees in 3102 BCE. So he introduced a 4.32 million years long Yuga cycle and assumed that we are in the fourth Yuga.

How do we know all these details ? As remarked earlier, Aryabhata’s model was not accurate enough to go 3600 years in the past and detect a Yuga changing moment. However if we calculate the positions during 499 CE equinox using modern technology and apply Aryabhata’s model to go back another 3600 years, then celestial longitudes of the first seven objects become close to zero. The probability of this being a pure coincidence is less than one in a billion. The only logical conclusion is that Aryabhata was born in 476 CE and his definitions and methods were as described above.

Brown Pundits