Header Image: US Bases in Mid East. Iran is the only Sovereign country in the Mid East without US Bases
“God created war so that Americans would learn geography” ― Mark Twain
Why are the Gulf Countries not attacking Iran. Because they are extremely vulnerable
a) Resource and Economic Vulnerability
b) Political, Regimes can be overthrown
c) Targets because they host US Bases.
The US though they have bases in the Gulf, have not come to the aid of Gulf Countries. To the contrary they are evacuating personnel from the Gulf.
Bahrain: Politically Vulnerable: Hosts the biggest US base in the Gulf. It is also has Shia 50% with Sunni regime. The Shia majority have been very restive and any war related turmoil can allow the Shia to overthrow the Sunni Regime. (Shias were previously the majority, being approximately 55% in 1979. However, the increased naturalization of Sunni migrants and persecution of Shia Muslims by the ruling Sunni Al Khalifa family led to an alteration in the demographics.)
Qatar: Has the biggest LNG production and they have shut down production. Why: Cant afford to have drones or missiles or even debris hitting the storage. The whole storage will go up like a Nuclear Bomb
Qatar accounts for 20% of global LNG exports, with 80% of those volumes to Asia.
Saudi Arabia: Like Qatar Saudi Arabia is Resource attack vulnerable. Oil production can go up in flames even though the oil is less volatile. Also with the Gulf or Hormuz shut down oil exports are nearly nill. However, they have pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. So Saudis need to also keep Houthis happy so that the oil that reaches Yanbu and loaded into Tankers is not attacked by Houthis. (Only about 1 million barrells/day to Yanbu, compared to 6.8 miilion Barrells/day thru Gulf Hormuz.
Saudi too has significant Shia population (10-15%) located near the oil fields in the Eastern Province (Najran, and Medina)
UAE/Dubai; Very Economically vulnerable. Falling Debris has closed Dubai Airport, the busiest in the world. Dubai is an Worlds Financial center in the League of Hong Kong, London and New York. 90*% of Dubai are expatriates, some extremely wealthy. Revenues from oil and natural gas account for less than 5% of the Emirate’s revenues. If Iran hits world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa thats the end of Dubais Economic Wonder.
So as you can see the Gulf countries need to play nice with Iran until the wsr End.
How will the War End. (some possibilities)
a) Iran Runs out of Missiles. (also low probability of layers of Iran Leadership Killed)
b) US Missiles are depleted
c) US has an Economic Shock (eg Stocks, DJI falls significantly eg to 40,000. Or US Treasury Bond yields spike to above 5%
When the dust settles regardless of Iran having lost it is going to be new Landscape in the Gulf. The US bases are most likely gone. When personnel are evacuated the looters come in like ants to dead carcass.
Saudi East-West Pipeline can pump oil from the country’s main eastern oilfields to the Red Sea and has capacity to transport around five million bpd if Yanbu has the capacity to load that amount of crude the pipeline can carry onto ships, traders and buyers said. Crude loadings at Yanbu hit a peak of just under 1.5 million bpd in April 2020
https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/tankers/aramco-moves-oil-flows-to-red-sea-as-hormuz-grinds-to-a-halt
What the map below shows is that, due to a peculiar correlation of religious history and anaerobic decomposition of plankton, almost all the Persian Gulfs fossil fuels are located underneath Shiites. This is true even in Sunni Saudi Arabia, where the major oil fields are in the Eastern Province, which has a majority Shiite population.
https://theintercept.com/2016/01/06/one-map-that-explains-the-dangerous-saudi-iranian-conflict/
formerly brown, thank you for the comment a few days back. Made me realize the geopolitical ramifications of the Gulf
For an update on the war by Yves Smith (Jewish with close contacts in Israel in Israel)
A few excerpts give an idea of the tone.
The multi-front retaliation is almost certainly depleting US air defense stocks even faster than expected, as attested by a Jerusalem Post story, US considering moving additional THAAD and Patriot air defense systems to Middle East, experts say on how the US is considering raiding its already-understocked defense cupboard in other theaters to bolster Operation Epic Fury.
A sign of desperation is his (Trump’s) nutty idea of having the US provide naval escorts to tankers in the Strait, as well as have the US provide what he called political risk, actually war risk, insurance. The convoy scheme makes the Charge of the Light Brigade look like a dandy idea.
But as you’ll see from a Janta Ka video below at 5:50, in keeping with the slaughter at a girls’ school and a neonatal hospital, the US and Israel are hitting many if not mainly civilian targets, such as hospitals. This implies that the objective is to terrorize the population to force a regime change, as opposed to prosecute a war and conquer the state.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/03/iran-war-more-on-why-us-israel-success-impossible-as-israel-and-us-operations-take-more-hits-trump-proposes-unhinged-strait-of-hormuz-escort-scheme-western-media-misinforming-public.html
RecoveringNewsJunkie
Than you for suggesting I write about Former head of the Directorate of Military Intelligence, Major General Suresh Sallay.. He was key figure in fighting the LTTE.
There are accusation his arrest is a quid pro by govt to the Tamil Diaspora who anybody connected to the LTTE defeat.
(Salley is of Malay (Javanese) Heritage and a Muslim)
I don think it is important even for Sri Lanka. Sad tho, for this to happen to a kind of War Hero
If interested more in this article
https://www.dailymirror.lk/plus/Arrest-of-Maj-Gen-Suresh-Sallayandthe-allegations-by-Azad-Maulana/352-334123
I find this…quite confusing and am unclear as to why the government would agree to such a ‘quid pro quo’ and to what benefit?
Apparently Tamil Diaspora gave money to this govt to get elected.
>When the dust settles regardless of Iran having lost it is going to be new Landscape in the Gulf. The US bases are most likely gone.
On what basis do you think that the ‘US bases are most likely gone’? why would the US leave after as you say the likely outcome is that ‘Iran is defeated’?
I think you have an antipathy towards the US, that’s sort of clouding your judgement slightly on this…
Why would the Saudis, or the King of Bahrain, or the Qataris, not pay the US to continue providing the protection as they have been all along? If anything, they may end up paying more, no?
Iran is going to hyper-militarise and even be more of a proxy for the Sino-Russia/North Korea Axis/Alliance.
The Western populations have no interest to be Global Policeman
On what basis do you think that the ‘US bases are most likely gone’? why would the US leave after as you say the likely outcome is that ‘Iran is defeated’?
a) The US has pulled out most of its personnel from the Gulf (will need to look for article)
b) Did not defend the Gulf States including the Saudis at this critical juncture. So why rely or trust in the US to defend them.
c) Having US bases there are big target. A big downside to Gulf States and no upside as they the Gulf is realizing
as you say the likely outcome is that ‘Iran is defeated’?
Did not say likely outcome. Said “When the dust settles regardless of Iran having lost”
It is pretty obvious the Gulf Status have realized the status quo. Maybe undisclosed phone calls with Iran.
Non of the Gulf States have sent Jets or whatever against Iran Iran will attack the US bases, if there is activity. Iran wont attack Gulf States resources or Economic Targets. So when the war is over the Gulf can get back to business, sans US
As far as I know the US did not deploy attack aircraft/jest from the Gulf to attack Iran
Why, one possibility lack of personnel
Is this post satire?
How so ?
Another article well worth reading
Decades of international sanctions have left Tehran with one of the weakest air forces in the region, an aging fleet incapable of penetrating the air defenses of Israel or any major Gulf state. Iran cannot deliver a nuclear weapon by aircraft. It cannot do so by sea with any reliability. The ballistic missile is the only component that gives the rest of the nuclear program strategic value.
What makes this failure even more consequential is who stepped in to exploit it.
Over the past two years, China has emerged as the principal external supplier of Iran’s ballistic missile program, providing everything from chemical precursors for solid rocket fuel to satellite guidance through its BeiDou-3 navigation network, which replaced American GPS across Iran’s entire military architecture.
By the time Operation Epic Fury launched, Iran possessed the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, an estimated 2,000 missiles of varying ranges dispersed across hardened underground facilities, rebuilt and resupplied in large part by Chinese industrial networks.
Under Beijing’s Wing: Iran’s Arsenal
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/under-beijings-wing-irans-arsenal
Yes if Iran survives this; it joins this quadrilateral axis of the 4 Eurasian powers.
Sino-Russia + N. KorIran ..
Iran is already being supplied by Ballistic Missiles and solid rocket fuel etc.