Economy high priority (not hindu nationalism)

The Economist is kind enough to advise PM in waiting on matters related to economy and …political economy. In brief, Modi must be the toilet before temples person. Possible but not likely.

We imagine Modi’s goal would be to broaden the playing field not through compromise (as the Economist wisely suggests) but by having a vote consolidation plan for West Bengal and Kerala. If he can manage to get up to 20% in either state, the BJP will achieve the status of the Muslim League (IUML) – a pocket of votes and seats that nobody can ignore.
………………………
But even the most pessimistic (for the BJP) forecast suggests the
party led by Mr Modi will be the biggest and will get more seats and
votes than at any previous election in India. It has made inroads among
voters in areas (such as Kerala or West Bengal) where it had no
impression before. An estimated record turnout of 66.4% of voters also
buoys the BJP, adding to the strength of its likely mandate.
It looks
inconceivable that any other party, whether Congress or some combination
of regional outfits, could form a government. 

Thus the BJP, with Mr
Modi in charge, is preparing to rule.

 


To get control of the
lower house of parliament, and thus to form a government, Mr Modi needs
272 seats. Higher estimates by the pollsters suggest he could pass that
figure with only the support of the closest allies of the BJP, without
reaching out to coalition partners such as Jayaram Jayalalitha in Tamil
Nadu. Yet even if these turn out to be accurate he may prefer to build a
broader coalition, for two reasons.
 

First, to rule effectively Mr Modi
needs to project power beyond the lower house of parliament. Legislative
changes require consent of the upper house, where he has no majority.
And any prime minister must find ways to co-ordinate work of the central
government with powerful state governments. A wider coalition could
help in both areas.  

Second, Mr Modi presumably dreams that his party can
be in office for more than one five-year term. That requires limiting
the clout of the (soon to be) opposition Congress party. The more
coalition allies that the BJP can attract today, the more isolated
Congress will be.
Yet if Mr Modi is to manage a broad coalition, he will
have to change style from the rather aggressive figure on the campaign
trail who traded insults with opponents, sneering at rivals. As a chief
minister he could rule his state, Gujarat, with no consideration for
power-sharing; now he should adopt such skills quickly.


What
will come first for Mr Modi? The transition in India can be fast, with
Mr Modi likely to be installed within a week or so of the official
results (and a replacement chief minister for Gujarat named too). He is a
man who exudes impatience, and whose campaign has often emphasised the
need for efficient, decisive government able to implement policies with
speed. India’s stockmarkets are rallying, investors expect measures to
be taken quickly to encourage investment, economic growth, job creation,
better infrastructure and a broad return of confidence in India. 


At the same time, Mr Modi will have to find
the voice of a statesman who represents all of India, not only the
victors. He rose first in the Hindu nationalist movement, the Rashtriya
Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), which leant heavy organisational support in
this election to its protégé. It would be natural if it, and other such
bodies, now hope that Mr Modi will promote their values (broadly
equating being an Indian with being a Hindu). Mr Modi should disappoint
them. Many in India, including Muslims, Christians and more secular
Hindus, expect Mr Modi to make clear that his priority is not Hindu
nationalism but economic recovery. The clearer he can be about that, the
better.

…………

Link: http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2014/05/indias-election-exit-polls
………
regards

Blasphemy and its discontents..

some random news items.

A “liberal” doctor said something to a pharma rep (he probably said “I dont want to prescribe your overpriced medication to patients who don’t need it“) and the pharma rep told his buddies that the local GP is a liberal and is not properly respectful of religion. His buddies happened to be graduates of the vast network of Islamic Purification Factories one can find all over Pakistan. Mom (Pakistan’s far-sighted armed forces) and Dad (Saudi Arabia and the USA, in that order) got together to make this baby in the 1980s, but as in humans, the germ cells within mom were born a generation earlier. Lovingly cradled in the Islamic Republic and brought to maturity in anticipation of the arrival of Daddy’s little swimmers. Anyway, the local graduates were quick to grasp the necessary implications of having a “liberal” doctor in Jalalpur Jattan. They went and shot him dead.

Junaid, a “liberal” student from the remote borderlands of Punjab went to America on a Fulbright scholarship and came back to teach at Multan University (yes, I know, Bloody Fool, so close to a Green card and he returns to teach!). His “conservative colleagues” were unhappy. So they asked the local chapter of the Islamic Chatra Shibbir to put a stop to this menace. A pamphlet was circulated, saying that Junaid was a blasphemer who wrote blasphemous things about the wives of the Holy Prophet on Facebook under the pseudonym “Mullah Munafiq”. The police sprang into action and arrested the man from a 100 miles away. They prepared an indictment without bothering to involve the cybercrimes wing or otherwise find evidence connecting Junaid to Mulla Munafiq. No evidence? No problem. He is still in prison, 14 months later.

 Junaid’s family had a hard time finding a lawyer for him, until the local representative of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan took the case. He was threatened in court by fellow lawyers for daring to do so. He reported the threats to the police. A few weeks later, he was shot dead. Junaid no longer has a lawyer and faces a mandatory death penalty. Mulla Munafiq is still happily posting on FB 14 MONTHS after Junaid was arrested and put in high security prison. The ways of the infidels are indeed mysterious.
Human Rights Advocate Rashid Rehman Khan. – Screenshot

Faisal, a generous, loving, hard-working doctor had served his community for 25 years. He happened to be a Shia and made no bones about it. This was not a problem in the old, impure Pakistan, but by now a “Muavia colony” has grown up near his home (how fast they grow up!).
Muavia colony. As they say in Urdu “naam hi kafi hai” (“the name says it all”). Someone from Muavia colony sent him (and his brother and his cousin) threats, warning them to stop polluting the clean air of Hasan Abdal with their “Rafidhi” religion. They stayed in town, providing medical care to thousands. So Dr Babar Ali was shot dead on his way home from work in March 2014. And 2 months later, so was Dr Faisal Manzur. The police remain clueless.
Embedded image permalink

A group of lawyers protested against police high-handedness. The police officer involved is named Umar Daraz. He was verbally abused during the protest. His name happens to be the name of the second caliph of Islam (and of a few million other people). 60 lawyers have been charged with blasphemy. 

A poor Christian woman working in the fields drank water from a “Muslim” cup. The local Muslim women (“superior” to the Chrisitan lady in terms of status) complained and they had an argument. A couple of days later she was charged with blasphemy. She was duly sentenced to death in 2010. She is still on death row. Hearing about this, the Governor of Punjab said he thought this was a bit much and she should be set free.

His own guard gunned him down. Hundreds of lawyers volunteered to defend the killer. Thousands rallied in front of the killer’s house to support the noble family and to praise their glorious son. A judge sentenced him to death and then ran away from the country because of death threats. A mosque has just been named in honor of the killer. Local Barelvis (so-called “Liberal Sufi Muslims” in  the discourse of Western and Westernized Desis) are delighted that one of their own has restored their honor by killing the governor.

Subhanallah. Everything is going according to plan.

Only an armed force can stop these armed purifiers of Pakistan. But the army has other priorities (linked less to Islamic purification and more to permanent and over-riding “strategic” aims like the conquest of Afghanistan and the eventual defeat of India; but its all connected anyway). Liberals will either have to convert the army to their cause or move to the US to try and invent counter-propaganda for use after the apocalypse.

Theoretically, there is another option: the liberals, Shias, Pakhtoon Nationalists, Baloch Nationalists, Sindhi Nationalists, Ahmedis, Hindus, Free Thinkers, malcontents, etc. could, separately or together, invite another army to enforce order. For various reasons, I think this is not possible at this stage. But after the apocalypse, all bets are off...

For background on the blasphemy law, see here. 

I am posting this excellent column from Gul Bukhari in full. It sheds some light on some aspects of state collusion in this saga.

Silent onlooker? No, Sir
May 12, 2014

Just yesterday someone tweeted that the state is a silent onlooker in the context of HRCP regional coordinator and advocate Rashid Rehman’s murder. Progressive souls increasingly frustrated and angry at these blasphemy related murders so foul, point to the failure, silence or paralysis of the state in dealing with the crime.
But there is something wrong with even the nomenclature we use to describe what is happening, or to express what we want the state to do. A silent onlooker implies someone simply detached from proceedings, neither helping nor harming. Thus when we accuse the state of being a silent onlooker, we are implicitly asking it stop ‘onlooking’ and do something, to take some action.
Implicit to the term failure is an unsuccessful attempt at success, and therefore blaming the state for having failed means we are imputing an attempt by the state to put things right in which it failed. Similarly, when we criticize the state for apparent paralysis where blasphemy related killings are concerned, we are assuming a will or desire to do something, something good that is, but a bodily or physical inability to do so.
This language clearly indicates that we are not clear about what is going on, or what needs to change. The state is not a silent onlooker. No, the state is an active participant in blasphemy killings. It is not paralyzed at all, but actively complicit in the accusations and arrests. The state has not failed; it has been enabling incarceration of innocents, and aiding unfair trials of accused.
Though a cursory look at most blasphemy cases in Pakistan will demonstrate the same principles at work, just one horrifying example of Mr. Rehman and his client Mr. Junaid Hafeez should suffice here.
Firstly, it is the state that provides the open and alluring prospects for spurious and malafide accusations of blasphemy to be entertained seriously by the courts in shape of the blasphemy laws. The state made the laws, and the state remains responsible for not amending or repealing laws, especially at the time the 18th amendment was introduced to clean up the constitution of Pakistan during the previous government’s tenure. Thanks to the state, the blasphemy laws of the country continue to take the lives of innocents with increasing frequency in this country. It is ironic, every time anyone is lynched or murdered, everyone looks to the state to bring perpetrators to justice. It is almost laughable.
After an accusation has been made, the next state instrument, it’s law enforcement agencies, swing in with their role: the most ridiculous and nonsensical FIRs are registered without a shred of investigation, evidence or even exact description of the crime. Alleged acts or words of blasphemy are not even described. Yet, such FIRs are deemed sufficient to proceed against anyone accused of having committed a crime punishable with death.
In the case of Mr. Junaid Hafeez, he was accused of being the administrator of a Facebook page that is run by a pseudonym, and allegedly contains disrespectful commentary on the prophet’s wives. Reportedly, the police did not even check whether the IP address the Facebook page is being managed from, belongs to Mr. Hafeez or not. And reportedly, while Mr. Hafeez remains behind bars presumably without access to the internet, the Facebook page continues to be operated and updated. It might be useful to mull over whether thus far in this absurd saga, it is the state at work or the accusers of Mr. Hafeez.
Next, the state is obliged to ensure a fair and free trial of all accused, even of those it has facilitated in landing in this envious position. As in Mr. Hafeez’s case, neither are most lawyers willing to take on blasphemy cases, nor judges of junior courts will to stick their necks out to return fair or just verdicts. Once again, it is because the state will not provide them with the security that they deserve. Nor will the state prosecute those that threaten or perpetrate violence on lawyers and judges in these cases. Only after several months of trying to convince different lawyers, was Mr. Hafeez’s family able to engage Mr. Rashid Rehman as defense counsel. And only personal courage and strength of his convictions caused Mr. Rehman to take up the case, not any protection offered by the state.
Indeed, Mr. Rehman was threatened repeatedly, including during one of the hearings and in the presence of the presiding judge. Indeed, Mr. Rehman asked the judge to take notice. Indeed, Mr. Rehman asked for security. But the representatives of the state had discharged their duties: the police had registered the FIR and arrested the accused. The magistrate had remanded the accused. The judge sat on the bench listening to the case and the threats. Neither were aggressors apprehended, nor protection provided to Mr. Rehman.
Whilst the petitioner’s lawyer and other lawyers from the Multan bar are on record having threatened to kill Mr. Rehman, with several of these persons’ statements together with their photographs having been recorded in newsprint, the FIR registered for the murder of Mr. Rehman is against the usual ‘unidentified persons’. On the other hand, a Facebook page is run by a pseudonym, alleged insulting remarks unspecified, yet the FIR is registered against one Mr. Junaid Hafeez.
At every step, the state provided and facilitated the incarceration of the one and murder of the other. Neither was the state ‘silently onlooking’, nor paralyzed, nor failed. It succeeded very well.

Anti-India(s): Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu

The exit poll data is all over the place, but there remains little doubt that there was a Modi wave and that BJP has fared much better than expected (by neutral observers). This success can be attributed to polarization (on both sides) wherein the Hindu-first coalition simply out-voted the Ummah-first coalition.

This is a remarkable coalition centered purely around brand Modi (are you with him or against him?). Long time NDA partner like Nitish Kumar who misjudged the political atmosphere had to leave (and got crushed). In Maharashtra and in Punjab (as well as many other states) we saw not only coalition of Hindus (across castes and even out-castes) but an alliance of Dharmics (Jains, Buddhists, Sikhs) contributing to the majority vote. BJP has a few Christian (local) alliances in Goa and in the North-East (Purno Sangma and National People’s Party) and the Syrian Church has stood up with him. Amongst the Muslims, minorities such as Shias and Bohras are expected to vote for Modi.  

The above groups are presumably OK with the concept of a Hindu-majority, Hindu-first India that Arundhati Roy has always warned us about. David Cameron has recently noted that Britain is a Christian country
and British culture is Christian in the main, Narendra Modi will no doubt make the same claim for a Hindu India.

So how about the anti-India(s) – Bengal, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu are the most prominent- that were able to resist the Modi wave? Anti-India is the (expected) re-labeling of Anti-Hindu/Hindutva sentiment in the coming Modi raj.


In each case fingers will point to early child-hood vaccination programs- in Bengal/Kerala the pervasive influence of the left (there is a hidden communist inside every Bengali/Malayali), while in Tamil Nadu the combination of language chauvinism (there is a little bit of that in B/K as well) and the self-respect movement.


So, how will the future expected to unfold for the anti-India(s)? If BJP is re-engineered as an India-wide Shudra dominated alliance under Modi, the Tamils (under Amma) will fit in very comfortably, even as they maintain their distinctiveness. In Kerala it is difficult to imagine the Ezhava-shudras switching loyalty from the Left. Bengal which is closest to the Hindi belt will be the most vulnerable to a switch of loyalties from the Left and soft-Left (Congress) to the BJP.

A wide discrepancy in Exit Poll numbers will surely go some way to lift the gloom in the Congress camp. It is not over yet till the lady in saree (there are so many of them, formidable leaders all) sings.

Our own estimate of the total seats won by the BJP will be 230 (NDA overall 260)- slightly short of outright majority. The only question in that event will be: will Amma be ready to play ball? We will find out very soon if this is the case.

regards

The Martyrdom of Dr Faisal Manzoor

I first met Faisal Manzoor in 1975. I was one year senior to him in high school and then in Medical School (where he was one of my students when preparing for physiology and pharmacology exams). I have been in touch ever since and the last time I met him was in August 2013.
When we graduated from medical school, most of us moved to England and the US to “improve ourselves” or some such shit. In those days, one did not leave Pakistan because one was Shia or even liberal (though some other minorities had already got the memo, starting with Sikhs and Hindus in 1947). That started later. Still, a lot of people left or were encouraged to leave by parents and elders who were surprisingly pessimistic about the future of the great nation they had created and whose “real” half they continued to rule.  But not Faisal. Faisal moved back to his small hometown and built a modern hospital there. It grew and prospered and provided round the clock service in a dozen different specialties. And it was right on Sher Shah Suri’s Grand Trunk road, so every friend going towards Peshawar or Abbotabad or points North (where the ISI in its infinite wisdom liked to locate their training camps for Jihad and other needs) would stop by Faisal’s hospital and get infinite hospitality at any time of the day or night.
When an earthquake struck Northern Pakistan, Faisal loaded up a truckload of blankets, tents, food and medicines and headed North. He camped out there, distributing help to all and sundry. Some of them, unfortunately, were already members of the great Pakistan Islamic Purification initiative, but of course at that time we still did not know where that purification would head next.
Well, as we all know now, it headed for the Shias. Or maybe it was already heading that way, but we didnt really see it till years later because every cancer needs time to grow…. And Faisal and his family were Shia. In fact, they supported the local Imambargah. They were not just Shia, they were prominent Shias. They were also prominent philanthropists, prominent doctors, prominent helpers of those in need, prominent hosts of distant cousins of friends of friends..and prominent friends of all and sundry. But being prominent Shia was what got them targeted…..and all the other prominences did not help one bit when the motorbike boys came looking for targets.
2 months ago, Faisal’s older cousin (a doctor at his hospital and the deputy director of the local polio campaign) was shot dead while coming out of the hospital. He was shot dead on main GT road. At 8 pm or so. Nobody was caught. Pakistan moved on.  Shit happens. What can one do? it is the will of Allah. Or at least the will of Allah’s little helpers in Pakistan.

We asked Faisal if he was thinking of “getting out”. In fact, some of us specifically advised him to get out. He said where would I go and what would I do? my life and my work are all here. My family is here. My friends are here. My patients are here. My home is here. How can I leave? I will get some guards. This or that friend who is a senior police officer or a senior civil servant or a senior army officer has promised that this time, the culprits will be found.
But they found him first.
He was shot dead at 8-20 pm, leaving his hospital for home.  He was shot at the same spot where they shot Babar. He had not proven hard to find.
Another light has gone out in Pakistan. The darkness is descending faster than we thought.
Very sad.
Tomorrow the Attock branch of the Pakistan Medical Association will pass a condolence resolution and maybe they will also conduct a token strike. The chief minister may “order the police to apprehend the culprits” (we all know they never move without orders). Sometimes, these things can get noticed, even by a busy man life Shahbaz Sharif. And surely the blessed army will promise to relentlessly defend the ideological frontiers of Pakistan. While you sleep in peace, ISI is awake (as recent expensively printed posters have told us all). Indeed.
But unfortunately we also know that the culprits will be back. If arrested, they will be freed. If convicted, they may escape. Shit happens.
This is murder number three in the last 15 months, just in our close circle .
Dr Ali Haider, Eye surgeon, only son of the legendary Professor Zafar Haider and Professor Tahira Bokhari. Shot dead along with his son in Lahore.
Dr Babar Ali, Faisal’s cousin, an exemplary gentle soul who literally had no enemies. Shot dead in Hasanabdal 2 months ago.
Dr Faisal Manzoor, shot dead today.
Its getting closer. Strategic depth has come home to roost.
Embedded image permalink

Giving away prizes at the local school:

Are you wondering what pre-genocide propaganda looks like? Wonder no more. Here are the proud students of the University of Sargodha

Meanwhile in Gujrat:
http://www.dawn.com/news/1105756

GUJRAT: A senior doctor, who was killed at his clinic in Jalalpur Jattan city on August 7 last year, was not a victim of extortionists but of the alleged militants belonging to banned outfits for his liberal views.
A reliable source in a law enforcement agency told Dawn that three militants, recently arrested in connection with the target killing incidents in Gujrat, had revealed during interrogation that Dr Attaur Rehman, a known medical practitioner of Jalalpur Jattan, had also been a victim of their target killing besides many others last year.
The law enforcement agency had arrested the suspects in a kidnap-for-ransom case. During investigation, they revealed their involvement in target killing of seven people, including Professor Shabbir Shah of the University of Gujrat (UoG), a religious figure Fazeelat Shah alias Phul Shah in Jassoki area of Kunjah police and a policeman Sarfraz. They had also attacked a Sara-i-Alamgir-based businessman belonging to Ahmadi community who sustained bullet injuries but survived two attacks on him.
Though officials are terming the arrests as a major breakthrough in the investigation of target killing cases, the revelation of Dr Attaur Rehman being targeted by the banned outfit had really shocked them as they had earlier considered involvement of extortionists in the incident.
The militants told investigators that they had killed the doctor due to his liberal views he used to express publicly at his clinic and it was a medical representative of a pharmaceutical company who had connived with the suspects, telling them that the doctor often gave, what they termed, provocative remarks about religion and the information had been the sole reason for targeting him.
The revelations came as the investigators were probing the suspects in a kidnap-for-ransom case. All the three arrested suspects, including two real brothers Abrarul Haq and Anwarul Haq, residents of Dedhar village of Gujrat Sadar police precincts and Asif Maqsood of Jhandewal village, Gujrat, were arrested by a joint raiding team of Jhelum and Gujrat police a few weeks back in a case of kidnap-for-ransom of Haji Iqbal, a British national. They also confessed to being involved in four other major incidents of target killing in Gujrat district during the later half of 2013.
Earlier, the then Gujrat DPO Ali Nasir Rizvi had claimed the arrest of seven extortionists of a gang of Jalapur Jattan during a news conference on August 28, three weeks after the killing of the doctor, saying the extortionists had killed the doctor for extortion. Police had framed charges against seven suspects for anti-terrorism court of Gujranwala where the trial of alleged gangsters continued despite repeated statements of the complainants in their favour.
A police official said the heirs to Dr Rehman had formally asked the court in writing that the seven alleged extortionists were not his killers. The suspects’ release was likely after the legal formalities.
Police sources said DPO Rizvi, under pressure from the agitating medical fraternity of Gujrat chapter of the Pakistan Medical Association, had declared the seven alleged gangsters as killers of Dr Rehman just to pacify the concerned voices in Gujrat over the rise in extortion incidents.
It was also revealed that DPO Rizvi himself had also been a prime target of the arrested terrorists for belonging to the Shia community. The security of Mr Rizvi had been higher than routine security of a DPO and two Elite Force vehicles used to move with him instead of one mobile van while a concrete security wall had also been constructed outside his house.
The three alleged killers of Dr Attaur Rehman had been in Jhelum police custody for their involvement in abduction of Haji Iqbal who was released by them after payment of Rs3.5 million ransom.
DPO Jhelum Afzal Mehmood Butt confirmed to Dawn that the arrested suspects had confessed to killing of Dr Rehman and they had been on physical remand of six days until May 15 in a kidnapping case of Haji Iqbal. Efforts were being made to bring Iqbal back to Pakistan to pursue the legal formalities of the case, he added.
DPO Gujrat Rai Ijaz said three arrested militants were yet to be brought to Gujrat from Jhelum for legal proceedings in target killing cases. Two more suspects, Qari Afzal and Zakriya Khalid, of the same network are already in custody of Gujrat police on physical remand whereas the law enforcing agencies had been making efforts to arrest the remaining members of the gang.

Congress free Andhra

PM elect Narendra Modi dreams of a Congress mukt (free) India. How does a 128 year old party die at the hand of one man? Ground zero is in Seemandhra (current Andhra Pradesh province – Telengana), a good place as any to observe why/how the GOP was crushed to zero.

It was the cynical way that Congress went about the whole Andhra/Telengana division that doomed it at the voting box. It was instrumental in launching CBI cases against Jaganmohan Reddy son of the late and ex-Chief Minister (Congress). Just like with Lalu Yadav, Mulayam Yadav, and Mayawati, Congress uses the CBI stick to keep the B-team in line.

The thinking was that Congress will swamp Telengana (orange) in collaboration with Telengana Rashtra Samity of TRS- the Telengana freedom party and form a post-poll pact with Jagan Reddy in Seemandhra (yellow) as well to defeat the main opponents Telegu Desam Party (TDP) and the BJP..

What happened instead is one for the pol science text-books. Congress vacillated till the last minute and made everyone (and his mother) angry. It should have launched a mass campaign in Seemandhra to explain that they would not lose out due to state division (primarily loss of Hyderabad). Indeed the best solution would have been to make Hyderabad an Union Territory and for the two states to share a capital (till an alternative was developed for Seemandhra).

The wages of sin are now due and Congress is finished for ever in Seemandhra. It is already finished in large belts of North India (due to the first family managing to sabotage the rise of local leaders) and now it will only remain strong in Telengana and Kerala (with the Shudras of Karnataka are likely to move slowly but steadily into the BJP camp).
…….
The ruling Congress in Andhra Pradesh today suffered a major blow in the
urban civic body polls in Seemandhra region, where opposition TDP put
up a stellar performance, but stole the show in Telangana for whose
statehood the party claims credit.





Congress, which has ruled Andhra Pradesh for 41 of its 57 years of
existence, faced a near wash-out in Seemandhra,
which comprises the
coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions, largely because it was seen as
the villain of the piece for its role in the impending creation of
Telangana, which will next month become a separate state.


 

The former Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP has bagged over 60
municipalities out of more than 90 of them in the Seemandhra region. YSR
Congress of YS Jaganmohan Reddy, who is staunchly opposed to the
bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh, was placed second with 17 municipalities
so far in its kitty.


 

In Seemandhra, TDP bagged five corporations, including Vijayawada, while
YSRCP clinched two among which was Kadapa, the native district of
Jaganmohan.


 

Congress, which was almost decimated in the coastal Andhra and
Rayalaseema regions, has so far won more than 20 municipalities out of a
total 53 in Telangana, which would come into being as a new state on
June 2. Congress has pushed Telangana Rashtra Samiti of K Chandrasekhar
Rao to the second position.


 

TRS, which was in the forefront of the agitation for a separate Telangana state, has so far bagged eight municipalities. TDP, which was once a major force in the Telangana region, has been
relegated to the margins after winning just three municipalities so far.
BJP bagged two municipalities.


 

Several urban bodies in both the regions threw up hung verdicts.

The polls to 145 nagar panchayats and municipalities and 10 corporations
were conducted on March 30 against the backdrop of the passage of the
contentious Telangana Bill in Parliament.

…….
Link: http://news.outlookindia.com/items.aspx?artid=840546
…..

regards

BJP: CVoter 289, ABP 281, CNN 276, Cicero 272

India made history in this elections: 551 mil Indians voted over a period of 5 weeks. Awesome!!The
overall turnout in all the nine phases of polling this year stood at
66.38 per cent, posting the highest in the history of Lok Sabha
elections, surpassing the previous best of 64.01 per cent in 1984 in the
wake of the assassination of the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. The turnout in 2009 was 58.19 per cent.

It gets a bit complicated but 272 seats are required for a simple majority. If the smallest tally of 249 (Times) is taken as a floor, BJP/NDA will have no problems in forming a stable five-year govt.

Bottom-line, India is getting ready to welcome her first Shudra Czar (long overdue), we look forward to when the Dalit Queen will find her way to the throne (perhaps next elections)  

Shocking BJP wins predicted in Karnataka and Axom, states which
were expected to hold the line for Congress. Massive BJP victory in Uttar Pradesh.
UPA
sweeps Kerala.
AIADMK conquers Tamil Nadu. Mamata faces
defeat in West Bengal, Mayawati loses big in Uttar Pradesh. Nitish Kumar wiped out in Bihar, Left routed in Kerala but scores surprisingly well in Bengal.
Congress
fares better than expected in Maharashtra, Punjab and in Haryana,
decimated in Rajasthan and
Gujarat.

 

It may be wise not to place too much faith in the
exit polls (there were massive goof-ups in 2004 and in 2009- on
both occasions pointing to a BJP victory). Having said that this
exercise was a major victory for democracy and for the republic of India
with the Election Commission achieving (almost) national treasure
status. 

Since most of us here at BP take a jaundiced view of Hinduism/Hindutva (justifiably so given the excesses committed in its name), it is a fair point to add that nothing in the Buddhist (Thailand) and Islamic (Turkey, Indonesia) universe comes close to what Hindu-majority India has achieved in terms of vesting political power in her citizens. Even Christians in the third world (South Africa) cant really hope to compare. And the beauty of it is this has happened with the co-operation of citizens of all stripes: Jains, Buddhists, Muslims, Christians and Hindus have achieved it together with mostly good cheer and harmony. It is such a remarkable thing that it is not remarked upon most of the time (which is how it should be). 


Axom:
BJP predicted to win (8) out of (14)

West
Bengal: Trinamool (20), Left (15), Congress (5), BJP (2)
Bihar:
BJP 28 out of 39
Alternate (ABP): BJP+LJP (21), RJD
+ Congress (14), JDU (2)
Alternate (CVoter): BJP (26)
Jharkhand:
BJP (7), Congress (6), JBSP (1)
Chattisgarh:
BJP (10), Congress (1)
Uttar
Pradesh: BJP (52), BSP (6), SP (12), UPA (10)
Punjab:
BJP (7), Congress (6)
Delhi:
BJP (7) out of (7)
Himachal
Pradesh: BJP (4) out of (4)
Haryana:
BJP+ (3), Congress (7)
  
Rajasthan:
BJP (22), Congress (2)
Gujarat:
BJP (22), Congress (2) 
Madhya
Pradesh: BJP (16), Congress (11), BSP (2)
CVoter:
BJP (26), Congress (3) 
Maharashtra:
BJP (27), Congress (21)

Telengana: TRS (8), TDP + BJP (2),
Congress (4), Left (2)
Seemandhra:
BJP + TDP (17), YSR (8)
Karnataka:
BJP (18), Congress (9), JDS (1)
Tamil
Nadu: AIADMK (31), DMK (7), Congress (1) 
Kerala:
Congress + IUML (18), Left (2)
regards

Varanasi votes (Brahmins vs. Sunnis)

May 12, 2014. It will be a hand to hand combat between Narendra Modi (backed by majority of caste Hindu votes) and Arvind Kejriwal (backed by majority of sunni Muslim votes). The good news is that apart from some dedicated Yadav and Dalit voters, few votes will be “wasted.” People understand the stakes at hand and will not be distracted by propaganda (on all sides).

This is a caste Hindu dominated city (17 lakh voters), the contest will be between the (3 Lakh) Brahmins and in opposition, an almost equal number of Sunni Muslims (Shia muslims are expected to vote for the BJP). The Bhumihars (third largest community, also Brahmins but with a difference*) are critical as their vote swings towards the BJP. The Congress, even with a Bhumihar candidate and desperate pleading from conservative muslim leaders is all set to score a (distant) bronze medal. The local UP big-guns – Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) – will fare miserably. 

The Election Commission backed by Uttar Pradesh police ordered a massive raid on BJP head-quarters on suspicion of campaign related irregularities. This has resulted in (predictably) virulent demonstrations. 
If a game is being played it is way too complex for a common citizen to comprehend.

…………….
Brief note on a Bhumihar Brahmin* icon [ref. Wiki] Sri Krishna Sinha, born into a Bhumihar Brahmin family is considered the architect of modern Bihar. Barring the war years, Sinha was Chief Minister of Bihar from the time of the first Congress Ministry in 1937 until his death in 1961. He led Dalit’s entry into the Baidyanath Dham temple (Vaidyanath Temple, Deoghar), reflecting his commitment to the upliftment and social empowerment of dalits. He was the first Chief Minister in the country to abolish the zamindari system.
…………….With nearly 17 lakh voters as per figures of the local administration, Varanasi has a dominant Hindu population. According to an official in the district magistrate’s office, of these,
there are nearly three lakh Muslims, and nearly an equal number of
three lakh brahmans.


The brahmans vote is traditionally
expected to go to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), but the Aam Aadmi
Party (AAP) appears to have made a dent.

Bhumihars, the community of Congress’s Ajay Rai, are nearly 1.5 lakh in number.
However, their votes appear to be divided, after local Muslim leader Mukhtar Ansari extended support to Rai.

Similarly, the Muslim votes appear split as well, with many deciding
not to follow Ansari’s call to support Congress, and choosing the AAP
instead.

Kamal Ahmed Ansari, a weaver, said he was supporting the AAP. “Many local weavers are supporting the AAP. They have a feeling he has better chances of winning,” said Ansari.
Asked about Mukhtar Ansari’s support to Rai, he said: “I was a
supporter of the Quami Ekta Dal (Mukhtar Ansari’s party), but now that
he is supporting Rai, his ‘enemy’, we don’t want to support him.”

Mukhtar Ansari is in jail on charges of ordering the killing of BJP
legislator Krishnanand Rai, who was the brother of Ajay Rai.
In
2009, both Krishnanand Rai and Mukhtar Ansari had contested the polls
from Varanasi, but BJP’s Murli Manohar Joshi emerged victorious.

Meanwhile, the Congress is making last-minute efforts involving local religious leaders.
“The local elders are asking people to vote for the Congress. Let us
see what people decide,” said Shakeel, a shop keeper in Beniyabagh
locality.

“There are many supporters of the Samajwadi Party and
Congress as well, but people feel the battle is between BJP and AAP,
and they don’t want to waste their votes,” said Amit Singh, who owns a
book store in Godowlia area.

Koushal Kishor Mishra, a professor
of political science at the premier Banaras Hindu University, said
religion was a way of life in Varanasi and politics cannot be kept apart
from it.
“Religion is the centre and a way of life here, when
everything is centred around religion, how can politics be away from
it,” he wondered.

Other major castes here include the
Chaurasiyas, the traditional pan traders who are nearly 1.3 lakh in
number, Mallahs, the boatmen, who number around 50,000, the Yadavs, the
caste of Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh, who number around one
lakh, and one lakh Dalits.

“The bhumihar votes have split, and
nearly 30 per cent may go to the BJP. They are also getting the
Chaurasiya votes,”said Mishra.

…………..
. Amid high drama on eve of polls, UP police and Election Commission
officials today raided BJP office here and seized campaign material,
drawing vociferous protest from the party, but within hours “closed” the
case.


 

The search was conducted by the flying squad of police personnel and EC
authorities amid a ban on all election campaign activities since last
evening for tomorrow’s polls in the city that has witnessed a highly
charged electioneering.


 

BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is pitted against AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal and Congress’ Ajay Rai among others.

 

The raid at the main BJP office of Kashi region prompted a major protest and sloganeering by the party supporters.

 

District Magistrate Pranjal Yadav and Special Election Observer Pravin
Kumar later told reporters that the Election Commission has decided to
close the case as the material was not being used for campaigning.


 

These items were not being distributed among prospective voters, the
officials said. When asked whether such action would be taken against
other parties also, Yadav said that the raid was conducted as per
information received by a flying squad and action would be taken on all
such information.
 

BJP leaders, however, said that these were unused campaign materials and
the party was not indulging into any campaign activities.

They claimed that the latest incident further proves the administration
and election authorities’ partisan approach against BJP and linked it to
the local administration’s denial of permission to Modi’s rally here on
May 8.

In Delhi, an Election Commission order about today’s incident said, “On
receipt of a complaint, a flying squad checked the vehicle at the office
of the BJP in Varanasi.
“After obtaining a report from special observer and after finding that
no irregularity has taken place, the Commission has directed the release
of the material and drop further action.”

……………..
Link: http://news.outlookindia.com/items.aspx?artid=840466
…………..
regards

Uganda's Indians

The old Ugandan families- they trace their ancestry to the region pre-War (I mean WW1 and some even go back to the late 19th century). The old monied elite almost uniformly wealthy (more so by intermarriage) and very ecumenical but still highly religious. Their wealth is predominantly from real estate holdings, landed elite along with the elite Baganda. They were expelled during Idi Amin’s time but came back to claim their properties.

The new Kenyan families – the second and third sons of the Kenyan families (who have been in East Africa pre-war) who now have moved into industry and service sector. Meshing with the old families but still apart in that they pursue industry and haven’t moved to land/real estate yet.
The poor Desis- All have moved since the millennium and are in service occupations or industry. The Indians are usually long lost relatives (same village in Gujarat) as the old families but the Paksitanis are political exiles. They from the bulk of the cricket league (think “Tomil Tigers).

Vietnam for a “rising India” (against China)

This really tickled the funny bone, we are talking about a navy whose submarines explode while standing still in the parking bay. But apparently the Vietnamese are dead serious (and they have reason to be).

Quy said there was not much clarity in the Obama
administration. “That is why we want India should rise quickly. We have
great expectations from India,” he said.
 

The Chinese are placing a strong emphasis on the “peaceful rise” theme these days. What they really want (we imagine) is to set the clock back a few centuries when all subject countries used to dispatch emissaries with lavish gifts to the Middle Kingdom, bribe the mandarins and secure (temporary) favors.

MELBOURNE:  Concerned over China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea, Vietnam wants India to “rise quickly” in the region. “We are deeply concerned by Chinese assertiveness in the South China
Sea. The Chinese navy is acting without provocation. These decisions
seem to be taken by the Chinese leadership at the highest level,” said
Ambassador Dang Dinh Quy, president of Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam
(DAV).

Quy said there was not much clarity in the Obama
administration. “That is why we want India should rise quickly. We have
great expectations from India,” he said.

The remarks were made at a round table meeting of DAV held here on Saturday. DAV is said to carry out strategic research in international relations
and foreign policy, as well as serve as a think-tank for foreign policy
for the ministry of foreign affairs, the party and the state.

The meeting was held for the delegates to share information with
Australian scholars around regional security issues such as US-China
relations, maritime issues in the Indo pacific region and discuss more
broadly Australia’s engagement with Asia

     ….……

Chinese ships are ramming Vietnamese
vessels and spraying sailors with water cannons in a clash over plans to
drill for oil in disputed waters. Several
boats have been damaged and six people on one vessel have been injured,
said officials in Hanoi, with neither side showing any signs of backing
down.

Vietnamese vessels
are trying to stop China placing a $1billion oil rig off their country’s
coast. The say they want a peaceful solution, but a top official warned
‘all restraint has a limit’.

The
clash has been continuing for several days since a Chinese flotilla of
military and civilian ships moved into the disputed area of the South
China Sea on May 1.

Vietnam
promptly dispatched marine police and fishery protection vessels to the
area but they were harassed as they approached, said Ngo Ngoc Thu, vice
commander of Vietnam’s coast guard.

He
said Vietnam had not carried out any offensive actions of its own in
waters close to the rig, which is around 140 miles off the Vietnamese
coast.

‘No
shots have been fired yet,’ said a Vietnamese navy official, who could
not be identified because he was not authorised to speak to media.
‘Vietnam won’t fire unless China fires first.’

Another
Vietnamese official, who also preferred to remain anonymous, said that
Vietnam’s ships were outnumbered by the Chinese flotilla. He said the
ships were trying to stop the rig from ‘establishing a fixed position’.

Western
analysts have called China’s stationing of the oil rig one of its most
provocative steps yet in a gradual campaign of asserting its sovereignty
in the South China Sea. China claims almost the entire sea, rejecting
rival claims from Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei.

Chinese
Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying insists the rig, owned by
Chinese state-run oil company CNOOC, is in China’s territorial waters
and therefore drilling is ‘normal and legal.’

‘The
disruptive activities by the Vietnamese side are in violation of
China’s sovereign rights,’ she said. China had previously said no
foreign ships would be allowed within three miles of the rig.

…………
Link (1): http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Concerned-over-Chinas-assertiveness-Vietnam-wants-India-to-rise-quickly-in-region/articleshow/34934709.cms
Link (2): http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2622152/Vietnam-tries-stop-China-oil-rig-deployment.html

…………
regards 

Muslims are over-represented only in jails

Saba Naqvi re-visits the famous “moth-eaten” word, to describe the parlous state of Indian secularism. She particularly focuses on the dangers of polarization. It is nobody’s case that BJP has anything to offer towards a unifying agenda. But what have the secularists ever done for India (and Indian muslims)?

the only area
where Muslims are over-represented is in Indian jails  

Naqvi points out the effect of the poison pus from partition I (partition II is not mentioned, even though she talks about Axom and Bengal) but she should have also pointed out that ideologies are more poisonous than events.

The biggest and most powerful poison source is the two nation theory: “our heroes are their villains and vice versa,” a logic that can equally hold true for Shia/Sunni, Urdu/Bengali, and all other ways that humanity can be divided. Today Pramila Rani Baruah is a hero for Bodos and a villain for muslims: this is the proud legacy of the TNT.

the
rhetoric of Modi/Shah amounts to
this: Muslims got two countries out of Partition and rejected secularism; why
are they still in India trying to vote against us?

It is basically a massive con game. The agenda will be set by conservative muslims males who have only one thing in their mind: Islam khatre mein…..and that’s it. It was the Shah Bano case that convinced the Hindu upper-caste, middle-class (the primary source of opinion-makers) that secularism should be ditched in favor of majoritarianism and gave rise to the BJP as a political player. The secularists are opportunists who would pursue soft-Hindutva (Congress in Gujarat) and soft-Islamism (Samajwadi party in UP, Trinamool Congress in West Bengal) to get votes. Sure they dont have a genocidal agenda, but they dont have the good of any community at heart. Politics to them is an exercise to simply feather their family beds. If the Aam Admi party stands apart from the crowd it will get the votes of deprived muslims as well as relieved hindus. If it adopts the same formula as the secularists it will be doomed to a cut in the vote-bank and nothing more.
……………………..

Muslim
equals terrorist equals Pakistani equals infiltrator equals Bangladeshi is not
a new construct for the Sangh parivar. But in this election, the BJP is using
the Bangladeshi immigrant rhetoric with particular emphasis
as it believes
there are gains to be made by polarising sensibilities in Assam, Bengal and
Bihar. So the demonology only needs to be updated and tweaked. And this time
the Muslim bogeyman returns in the shape of the “Bangladeshi”. The immigrant,
illegal migrant, settler, foreigner etc.

At
one level, these are all battles erupting around the Partition fault-line, the
wounds that routinely get infected and begin oozing pus. At its base level, the
rhetoric of Modi/Shah and even the more sophisticated right-wingers amounts to
this: Muslims got two countries out of Partition and rejected secularism; why
are they still in India trying to vote against us?
If they want to stay, it
should be on our terms, not those set by people who are infiltrators and
terrorists anyway.

Communal ideology and prejudice are easy to spot and
analyze. It is harder to confront the great crisis of Indian secularism, that
is now so hollowed out that it makes it easy for communal forces to grow. One
could even borrow the phrase Mohammed Ali Jinnah used for the Pakistan he
got—“moth-eaten”—which is what the fabric of Indian secularism has become
today.
For those who still have idealistic stardust in their eyes, we must
blink and accept that Indian secularism is not about some utterance of the soul
as a Jawaharlal Nehru may have once imagined it. It appears to be mostly about
electoral management by secular parties that involves first seeing Muslims as a
herd and then trying to keep that herd together.

But
the crisis of secularism is no laughing matter. The Muslim community has
slipped on all human development indices. Yet in modern secular India, an
entire mobilisation has thrived on the argument that they are “appeased”. There
is indeed a section of the community that is appeased: the clerics. All
political parties go to them.
Last week, Priyanka Gandhi did so in Rae Bareli;
simultaneously in Delhi Meh­mood Madani, an influential cleric from the Deoband
tradition, who has of late been making pro-Modi noises, said “Priyanka would
have been better than Rahul” for the Congress. 
Since Inde­pendence, sec­ular
parties in India have approached the Muslim community through clerics and in
the process given them legitimacy. The maulanas, in turn, have used the cover
of “secularism” to keep retrograde personal laws in place and thereby their own
relevance intact till presumably they land in paradise.
They rarely talk of
jobs, employment, modernity. The result now is that having been given
“secularism” to eat and a vote to brandish, the Muslims of India have been left
in their ghettos with many “sole spokesmen” of the community. It is these
clerics who promise the deliverance of that herd during election time. Their
projection of their own clout is often a fraudulent exercise.

As
the BJP thrives, so will the clerics who live off victimhood and the fears of
the minority community. Among the most successful is Badruddin Ajmal, who leads
the AIUDF in Assam. In the 2012 violence in the state, he too had stoked the
flames.
A graduate of the Deoband seminary, he des­cribes “religious discourse
and Islamic theological excha­nges” as among his favourite pastimes on his
website. He is a perfume moghul with expansive business and charity interests,
who no doubt sees himself as a protector of the community and a servant of
Allah.

How
did we get here? For one, the clout of the maulanas has increased ever since
the Congress famously capitulated before them when it overturned the Shah Bano
judgement in 1986. It is hardly worth restating that this not only pushed
Muslims deeper into the ghetto, it eventually created conditions for the rise
of the BJP on the stage of national politics in the late ’80s.

The
All-India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB) was at the heart of that churning.
Founded in 1973, it is a collection of clerics with a motley crew of
professionals whose main purpose is to protect Sharia law. Of its 201 members,
101 are life members. They represent an orthodox male viewpoint that has not
just been allowed to go unchallenged but has also been promoted actively by the
secular state.

Outright corruption in the name of secularism too is part of
the disease.
Particularly so in the matter of Waqf properties that can be
described as religious endowments made in the name of Allah for the benefit of
the poor and needy in the Muslim community. There are approximately 3,00,000
registered Waqf properties in India on about four lakh acres of land (the
second largest land holding after Indian railways). It is a national resource
that should have been developed for the welfare of the community,
as it is meant
to. Instead,
this resource has been mortgaged, sold and encroached upon with the connivance
of the same clerical class in league with elected Muslim representatives. Waqf
boards in all the states are repositories of corruption, yet they get away with
it because any demand for scrutiny is described as an attack on Islam.

Meanwhile, issues that really concern the community such as employment,
safety, prosperity are not addressed. The police and the entire judicial
system is known for its profiling on communal lines and the only area
where Muslims are over-represented is in Indian jails while even
well-to-do members of the community are not rented homes in many
localities in Indian metros. 

……….
Link: http://www.outlookindia.com/printarticle.aspx?290671
………….
regards

Brown Pundits