π Links shared from the comments
-
Indian rupee slides to all-time low on US visa hike & subdued foreign flows: Visa fee hikes and US tariffs are compounding pressures on the rupee, with concerns about equity flows into Indiaβs IT sector.
-
Why the PakistanβSaudi Arabia defence pact is unsettling India: Riyadhβs commitment to treat aggression against Pakistan as aggression against itself is seen as a direct security challenge to India.
-
Doug Macgregor thread on the SaudiβPakistan Strategic Mutual Defense Pact: Macgregor outlines how SaudiβPakistani defense ties, backed by China and linked to Iran, could reshape the balance of power in Asia.
-
World Bank warns of Pakistanβs failing growth model: The World Bank says Pakistanβs growth model no longer supports poverty reduction, with income gains stalling and poverty at an eight-year high.
-
Rail-based Agni Prime missile test-fired: India successfully tested a rail-mounted Agni Prime ICBM, underscoring advances in indigenous missile technology and delivery systems.
π¬ Keep the links and thoughts coming β BP works best when the Commentariat bring their own sources into the mix.
The timing of the visa fee hike compounds existing external pressures, with 50% U.S. tariffs on Indian goods – the highest among Asian peers – already expected to dent exports.
“For the rupee, the pressures have increased in terms of tariffs kicking in at 50% and the recent visa news is incrementally negative for equity flows, especially into the IT sector,” Dhiraj Nim, FX strategist at ANZ Bank, said.
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-rupee-slides-all-time-low-us-visa-hike-subdued-foreign-flows-2025-09-23/
the Argentinian peso is being back by the US very heavily to prevent a country collapse
XTM
I dont know about backing. They just got a 20 million SWAP line.
Given that most of Argentinas debt is USD I dont think a USD Peso SWAP helps at all
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-ready-support-argentina-needed-bessent-says-2025-09-24/
hmm thanks for the context
What unsettles Indian analysts the most is the pact’s commitment that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both”.
“Riyadh knew India would construe the Saudi-Pakistan pact as a direct threat to its security, yet it went ahead,” Brahma Chellaney, an Indian strategist, posted on X.
Why the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia defence pact is unsettling India
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c147gkxyyrmo
Pakistan has done very very well post-Pahalgam
THREAD: The Strategic Mutual Defense Pact (SMDP) signed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on September 17th signals a seismic shift in global power dynamics.
Between 2020 and 2024, more than 60 percent of China’s arms exports went to nuclear-armed Pakistan.
China maintains tacit support for this alliance through its deep partnership with Pakistan while simultaneously arming Iran with critical military components.
https://x.com/DougAMacgregor/status/1970324637998252173?
Sino-Islam but with a Russian Twist..
I think India can accommodate this?
The World Bank said on Tuesday that Pakistan’s current economic growth model does not support poverty reduction, causing income gains to stall, with poverty already at an eight-year high in 2024.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2568610/wb-warns-of-pakistans-failing-growth-model
u r an author now ..
Thanks. How does one create a post? You need to login via wordpress?
yes it’s all in the email.. there isa login button the website
Didn’t receive any email. Can you resend?
because u don’t use ur email account π
resent password link
didn’t receive yet. let me wait.
H1B madness. Now suddenly an existing H1B holder is worth USD100,000 more. If you are holding an H1B and reading this, you should talk to your boss about a raise.
So H1B’s will earn more and will be forced to repatriate as they can never convert to green card before it expires.
isn’t it better to be elite in India than middle in the West?
in the age of cheap air travel and communication; keep a foot in both.
but I honestly do think an elite school in India is better than the average high school in the West
Many expat Americans are choosing to give up their passports in the face of FATCA
Expensive to give up US passport, specially of you have assets.
https://www.irs.gov/individuals/international-taxpayers/expatriation-tax
yes always good to have options
No options re exiting US Citizenship
you gave up urs?
Renunciation fee is crazy some 2000 odd dollars.
Expatriation on or after June 17, 2008Your net worth is $2 million or more on the date of your expatriation or termination of residency.
Thats not the big issue. it is the upfront tax on your assessed assets. You will have to pay capital gains as if the assets were sold.
See the IRS link I gave earlier.
interesting I had no idea- I think the Facebook founder enunciated
2,000 isn’t a crazy sum for renunciating a citizenship but presumably there are loopholes?
back in the US as of yesterday
what do you mean because of tax legislation?
I didn’t realise that
yes I think it’s about thinking dynamically how to operate this new paradigm rather than formulaically following the herd.
I do notice India is. VERY competitive; exam taking and credentials .. hard skills over soft skills
also very bifurcated; Alia Bhatt and Mukesh occupy very different spheres of presentation
whereas the elite in the US is more integrated. Actors like to be thought leaders and CEO like to look like Actors..
social mediafication
Getting degrees from second or third tier US universities doesnβt give the expected RoI in the US or India anymore.
Exactly
isnβt it better to be elite in India than middle in the West?
If you have Inherited money and property
Being even a high wage earner in India is not elite
Becoming so in the US too, even though getting a USD100,000 job is top 20% of in term of earnings. The problem is assets, specially given the price of house and property taxes.
yes asset rich versus HENRYs (High Earner Not Rich Yet)
India’s indigenous tech really is next level; a scientific superpower.
probably requires a ton of capital
can’t expect first world levels from a third world country.
india is really good for its income level.
as incomes rise will be globally competitive in 20ish years.
presumably..
this is true; but I think the GCC can soak up ALOT of Indian talent
Indiaβs indigenous tech really is next level; a scientific superpower.
You should back that claim with evidence.
eg Patents and Scientific Publications.
China has the most in Scientific Publications
More than the US
That report also found that China published a yearly average of 407,181 scientific papers, ahead of the US’s 293,434
India is not there in the rankings
https://www.springernature.com/gp/researchers/the-source/blog/blogposts-for-editors/china-growing-influence-global-research-nature-index-2024/27731198
I was speaking on Space Program?
I was speaking on Space Program?
Specifics please
India does very well in Innovation, topping its income grouping. Population advantage of course, but still, the jump up is pretty recent.
2014 ranking – 76
2024 ranking – 38
Not that great. When you look at the data.
https://www.wipo.int/en/web/global-innovation-index/2025/index
I think India’s scale gives it advantages
What you would expect, spending/patents/tech export/research labs etc.
It doesn’t feel like one of those subjective ‘freedom’ or ‘democracy’ or ‘happiness’ indices where places like Singapore and Nigeria score highly making a mockery of the process.
Singapore is pretty good at research and the govt really pumps money into it. Cluster ranking, it’s why Switzerland is no 1 too. Obviously like all rankings the weights can be iffy. Still, the change in rank is a good indicator of direction.
Singapore seems bland?
I think Indian governance needs to be thought
Karachi – Lahore – Chennai – Mumbai – Dhaka – Calcutta should be great cities
so to Greater Delhi
it’s bad urban infrastructure all around
The Indian cities are getting upgraded. Should be solid in 15ish years.
Even Dhaka tbh.
lol BB – Pakistan isn’t terrible in everything loll
I do agree that sometimes I am harsher on Pak but this is based in reality.
India-Bangladesh being richer simply means they have more money to put in their cities.
Karachi still does not have a metro. Lahore has only 1 line with none under construction.
The Indian cities have multiple lines (Delhi is on par with global metros) with multiple under construction. Nagpur/Pune have bigger metros than Lahore and they are not even state capitals.
By 2040 all of the Indian metros in the big cities will be on par with East Asian/European levels.
I’m not so optimistic about this. Our taxation system is messed up. Indian cities need a resident tax, else there is the ever pressing need to spread outwards and not rebuild inward.
its incredibly non-trivial (and expensive) to deliver urban infra upgrades at super high population densities while subsidizing rural geographies. As Singapore’s lionized leader has pointed out quite succinctly more than a decade ago.
Only way to cut this gordian knot is continued high growth levels, which for India, is very feasible even likely, but not guaranteed.
The Service exports boom is facing a dual threat from tariffs and AI. If that kicks in before Indian manufacturing triples, India could very easily slide back into economic stagnation.
By the time India, Philippines, Vietnam get to upper middle income the upper middle income countries will be high income so India will basically dominate the upper middle income rankings until it itself goes to high income.
I think the Indian Space program is one of the few outstanding successes.
Space programs create an ecosystem of science and technology and spin off a lot of patents.and science publications. eg NASA and the US National Labs when they were govt funded. Maybe happening in India on a small scale.
The rail based ICBM launch is proof, no?
That is old technology, not innovation. Even North Korea has one
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railcar-launched_ICBM
ew countries have it
the trade off between trade, indigeneity and patronage
https://brahm.beehiiv.com/p/indian-moon-landing-global-gamechanger
https://www.newindianexpress.com/web-only/2025/Sep/26/veni-vidi-contuli-sundar-pichai-satya-nadella-and-trumps-100000-h-1b-mistake
a nice funny article,
i have cut and pasted a bit, as it makes an interesting read.
I understand the sentiment: America for Americans, and the government wants to encourage companies to hire American workers. But wanting only the fully formed, pre-packaged ‘valuable person’, ready to contribute from day one to America without any further investment, now that is where the problem lies. Let me explain.
You see, this “value” is not manufactured in a vacuum, but is cultivated in the grind and culture of daily life. Becoming ‘valuable’ in any field is a lifelong process that requires immersion in a culture of innovation, access to cutting-edge ideas and projects, and mentorship from the greatest minds within a world-class corporate ethos.
Much as I love my country, I am honest enough to admit we do not have any of it. We have a few oasis around of that culture, yes. But most of India’s corporate world is precisely the opposite of what you need to truly make a ‘valuable’, world-class executive. So much so that I can imagine and tell you of an alternate reality of what would have happened if these Indian-American CEOs had never left India.
Satya Nadella might be managing a cloud migration project for the Ministry of Fisheries, which has been delayed indefinitely due to a missing file. Sundar Pichai could be leading the “Maps for Cows” initiative at a local firm touted as aatmanirbhar, but using foreign software and cloud infrastructure. Shantanu Narayen might be designing wedding invitation templates for Shaadi.com Premium while the project approval for his startup idea gathered dust in some ministry somewhere.
btw you can post directly?
i don’t know how to do it.
See if you got a mail with a link to activate your login. XTM needs to send you a link if not.