As one does, we were discussing societal rise and collapse on twitter and I said at some point:
User @whatwasthataga4 on X.com (an Indian American) asked: “I don’t understand this once in a millennium opportunity. What exactly is it and how is it supposed to work in the best case?”
I posted an off the cuff reply and wished I could sit down and do a proper post on this. But knowing that I may not get to it, I am just quickly updating my tweet and hoping that commentators will add value.. So here is my “off the top of my head” explanation of this “once in a millenium opportunity” claim.
1. Indian human resources are potentially world class; the wetware is actually OK (though disease and malnutrition do lower IQ in some significant subsets, but cultural strengths compensate as well, so even that is not a lost cause)
2. So, wetware can work. What about software? I think even the software is not entirely corrupted. The bios is still intact for most people (though under threat) and the culture has many elements that make it potentially successful. For example, there is a significant commercial class and tradition, of the South Chinese type, if not equally developed right now. There is also significant respect for teachers and learning (again, not at Confucian levels, but it is very much there) and respect for legal authority (sometimes, maybe a lot of times, too much respect for authority, but there is also a romantic anti-authoritarian assault from Wokish Leftist ideologies that now threatens to over-correct).
You may be getting a hint of why i say its a chance, not a done deal. These are also strengths that are under sustained assault from Postleftist wokish ideologies and in India there is such significant domination of western leftish narratives in the educated classes that there is the possibility they could actually destroy these cultural strengths in another generation. That would be one way to miss the bus. Another would be to start a religious civil war. The second is very high on the list of fears for leftists and liberals, but I suggest we should be equally fearful of too much leftism 🙂
3. The administrative and military machinery of the Raj is intact, vast and relatively modern, and can be redirected to new purposes. I listed this at 3, but this is probably what many people think of when they say “India has a chance, thanks to the Raj”. I think the downsides of colonization exceed any benefits they brought, but no doubt the existence of this apparatus gives India (and even the other successor states of the Raj) an edge over, say, Afghanistan, for better and for worse. Its a mixed blessing but its there, and it CAN potentially be directed to new ends.
4. A vast and successful diaspora (a source of ideas, ideals, money and skills)
5. Relatively good asabiya for such a large country (I dont buy this notion that Indian people in general are not patriotic. If anything, they are excessively and over-sentimentally patriotic . Patriotism matters. (Pakistan has even better asabiya, so this is necessary, but not sufficient 🙂 )
6. The biggest population in the world Demographic dividend. Another obvious point where the opportunity is there now, but wont be there forever.
And so on.. There is a lot more
Add your comments. (I have left the meaning of development vague, but what I personally mean is very conventional success as the first layer (the thought is that this layer itself implies others), so things like being a giant middle income or more economy, with no serious invasion fears and a clearly functional political and economic system that is a very big source of innovation and ideas for the whole planet; I dont mean people will be more virtuous, or a “new man” will be born after the glorious revolution).
BTW, here is a conventional western view of why a chance for very serious development exists in India (at least this was the view last year, relations are more tense now and the strategic directives behind such programs may have shifted)
Postscript: My conspiracy theory is that a thousand conspiracies are launched and some turn out to be workable, but nobody knows in advance that A or B is a sure shot.. It’s a leap into the dark 🙂 (hence, work for the ones you want, when the time is right, it will happen)
Paritrāṇāya sādhūnāṁ vināśāya ca duṣkṛtām |
Dharma-saṁsthāpanārthāya sambhavāmi yuge yuge
First a theory of Collapse (The Collapse of Complex Societies: Joseph Tainter)
He then lays out his theory of decline: as societies become more complex, the costs of meeting new challenges increase, until there comes a point where extra resources devoted to meeting new challenges produce diminihsing and then negative returns. At this point,societies become less complex (they collapse into smaller societies).
For Tainter, social problems are always (ultimately) a problem of
recruiting enough energy to “fuel” the increasing social complexity which is necessary to solve ever-newer problems.
US is at this situation
economic fundamentals. Off the top of my head:(2023 data)
The US is adding about 4 trillion in debt every year during Bidens time
Obviously this not sustainable.
How will it fall apart, who know. Their are already signs, Law and Order has become an issue/
As they:say “Countries can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
Britain too is falling apart and running apart. No real manufacturing and the iconic companies have been sold.
India’s problems are different. It is a Nation in Name only. Divided in many ways, even language.
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I wrote this sometime back. More detail
US Economics and Theory of Collapse
https://www.brownpundits.com/2025/06/08/us-economics-and-theory-of-collapse/
AI will bail them out?
AI is creating more problems than solving. Using up too much power and water. Electricity prices have gone thru the roof.
Trump’s Tariffs was one shot at bail out. The other is invading Venezuela and Greenland to grab their resources. Good lick with that Russia and China have interests too
When I see less homelessness and drug addiction might be signs of bail out.
The cynic in me is reminded of even better ‘chances’ missed in the first quarter of this century thus far. Yes, things are….slightly more optimistic today than say 2010. But I am not seeing any signs of the kind of sustained double digit growth period that is a pre-requisite for .. converting this demographic window into our desi ..”great leap forward”.
My comment sounds a lot more pessimistic than I intend, I mean, its definitely encouraging to see 7+ % growth in the face of headwinds. But bottomline, regardless of excuses, India needs a 10+ % growth period, and over multiple years, if its truly going to take that next step forward. Is it possible? Yes, but that has been the case for a couple of decades now, without it actually happening.
I mean growing at 6.5% over next 25 years puts India at something like $22 trillion (in 2025 dollars) with pci of $14kish and HDI of 0.82-0.83 which is basically Russia but with 10 times more people.
“soft bigotry of low expectations” comes to mind. India needs to do better than that. And for that Indians need to aim higher. Not just ‘dream’ higher.
I don’t think it’s just linear interpolation per se
Also India is a Cultural Superpower; Bollywood is a klaxon that will only grow more influential..
India also is a Language Superpower; English is nativised in India.
Those are of course, good things. But not ones that move the needle sufficiently. This sort of optimist view on India having a “window” is one I subscribed to – especially circa 2016-2017. Vietnam, Thailand converted a lot more ‘chances’ in that pre-covid timeframe – in arenas where India could and should have done a lot better. Blame it on not enough forward movement in reforms, or Demonetization, or whatever XYZ, the bottom-line is that a window was missed. And I think the probability of India repeatedly missing on maximizing windows in the next 10 years, which are particularly crucial, is …non-trivial.
Also India is a Cultural Superpower; Bollywood is a klaxon that will only grow more influential.
Does not put food on the table and civic and health services.
India also is a Language Superpower; English is nativised in India.
And marginalizes all those mot conversant in English. For the average person being able to read a manual is good enough.
If I had children I would teach them Mandarin like the Jews in Manhattan who are reading the winds of change. Essentially a elite thing to stay ahead.
From what I have read (I dont examine India’s economy numbers)
Indias GDP growth is coming from urban projects. Do they really benefit the masses.
Its like US GDP growth is from Defense, i.e. Military Spending. Worse it is debt fueled. Does not benefit the average person
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India’s rapid growth, despite high tariffs, weak private spending, and stagnant manufacturing, has been driven largely by the Modi government’s focus on state-funded infrastructure upgrades.
Over the past few years, India has built shiny airports, multi-lane national highways and metro train networks. And yet, many of its cities rank at the bottom of liveability indexes.
Toxic air, broken roads and unpicked rubbish – why India’s big cities are becoming unliveablehttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp9kp2kx329o
growth is always uneven. All the metrics on things that benefit the ‘average’ person are and have been consistently trending up for quite some time.
Almost great cities went through a phase where its conditions for the economic strivers were considered “unlivable”. New York, Chicago, London. You name it.
When was the last time you went to India Barr, or have you ever been?
The growth is not just on “shiny airports’. Its everywhere. Sure the trickle-down could be …trickling more and faster, but pretending that it isn’t, is……. one-eyed.
When was the last time you went to India Barr, or have you ever been?
Never been and no wish to do so.. I dont like grinding poverty and beggars all over the place. I saw that in SL when I was a teenager and thankfully quite less.
In my opinion worse in NYC (compared to SL) and other big cities in US (I was last in 2014). Beggars and homeless. My partner says worse now.
conditions for the economic strivers were considered “unlivable”. New York, Chicago, London. You name it
See comment above re NYC, Philadelphia are regressing.
The growth is not just on “shiny airports’. Its everywhere. Sure the trickle-down could be …trickling more and faster,
Maybe maybe not. For sure Indian cities have not cleaned up their air pollution and garbage. Easily solvable issues
Instead of hate for China learn from them. The US is no example for poor countries
I am in agreement with virtually the entire post. India is the “silent superpower” as China & the US enter into some sort of death dance; India, which is more unified than the EU, is another behemoth lurking in the background.
as an aside I don’t know if Pakistan has better asabiyah than India; but again don’t want to derail the thread and can’t really comment.
as an aside I don’t know if Pakistan has better asabiyah than India;
Why compare with Pakistan in a race to the bottom. Why not Thailand or China
China is the right comparable
I’m quite optimistic that India can become a stable middle-income country, like ~ $10,000 gdp per capita, in today’s nominal terms, by 2040. This will solidify its place as a autonomous pole of influence. Also the middle class won’t just be large, but it will be the largest social class in absolute terms, and hence more politically pivotal. The country will continue to move up the value chain in nearly all industries. That said, the unusual concentrations of poverty will persist,and be characteristically stubborn due to cultural inertia. The great thing to celebrate will be the dignity of true sovereignty that only higher productivity can ensure, but there wont be any miracles. The government isn’t investing in the youth in any serious way, its all household driven, as it always has been. The youth are malnourished and living in a environmental hazard area, the lower classes are doubtful to create competent skilled tradesmen or machinists in great numbers, let alone something loftier. Without competitive pressure from the lower middle classes, the upper classes will continue to become more of whatever they currently are….
In 2010–11, The Economist predicted India’s growth could surpass China’s. When Narendra Modi took office in 2014, India already had a $2.1 trillion liberalized, free-market economy built since 1991. Many expected Modi to strengthen this framework through better execution, institutional reform, and faster decision-making.
Instead, India moved in another direction. Economic power became more centralized, government discretion expanded, and free-market competition weakened as cronyism replaced neutrality. The Adani Group illustrates this shift: a relatively small player in 2014, it quickly became dominant in airports, ports, energy, and infrastructure—supported by public financing and regulatory favors. Institutions were bent rather than strengthened, and governance grew opaque. The state focused on announcements, rankings, events, and global photo-ops—busy and visible, but not institutionally capable.
By prioritizing control over competition, execution over discipline, and political stability over economic transformation, India has locked itself into a services-led, welfare-supported, unevenly prosperous path. This model can last, but it cannot deliver the economic leap India once aimed for.
The numbers show this change. Average GDP growth slowed from about 6.8% to 5.8%. Goods export growth collapsed, with CAGR dropping from roughly 14.5% to 3.5%. Manufacturing’s share of GDP fell from around 16.5% to 14%, showing failure to absorb labor at scale.
Employment is the biggest concern. Between 2004 and 2014, millions moved out of agriculture into industry and services—a healthy shift. That progress stalled after demonetization and was hit hard by COVID-19. The economy never fully recovered. By 2024, more people worked in agriculture than in 2004, erasing gains from the UPA years. Labor returns to farms only when industry and cities fail to attract them. Rising farm employment signals stress and worsening under-employment.
India faces massive under-employment, not open unemployment. Many work in low-productivity, subsistence-level jobs. This problem has grown since 2018 and explains why GDP growth no longer raises living standards for most citizens.
This is dangerous given India’s large young workforce—the much-discussed demographic dividend. Without productive jobs, this dividend could become a liability, fueling frustration, inequality, and instability.
On per-capita income and living standards, India already trails peers like the Philippines and Indonesia and will likely remain behind them in 2035 and beyond. It wouldn’t be surprising if Indians increasingly seek permanent migration to these countries.
Geopolitically, India’s role will stay familiar. It won’t dominate like the U.S. or challenge like China. Instead, it will remain a swing power—too big to ignore, but limited by incomplete economic transformation. Its influence will rest on size, location, population, and market potential—not institutional or economic leadership.
India’s tragedy is not lack of talent or ambition. It is the failure to turn opportunity into transformation. At a time when political power was strong, demographics were favorable, and global conditions allowed for big economic changes, India had the chance to build competitive markets, strengthen neutral institutions, scale up manufacturing and urban jobs, Instead, the focus shifted to managing outcomes rather than changing structures, more centralized discretion instead of rule-based competition. This reduced short-term risk and kept politics stable, but there is no real transformation.
Pay for the subscription at chatgpt. Higher quality output.
laughably biased.
India’s labour shift:
2004: ~27 cr in agriculture
2014: ~24 cr in agri
2024: ~29 cr in agri
I guess this data is not laughable,
about 46% working population is in agriculture.
One can say that Modi and Adani are not responsible but this Data has some serious implications.
India’s indeed huge soft power is real, broad, and unusually deep for a low-income country:
Few countries at India’s income level have anything comparable.
But It cannot substitute for:
India in 2035 will most closely resemble Peru today—poorer than Brazil, less urban than Colombia, but stable, services-heavy, and informality-dominated.
India-2035 ≈ Peru-2024 + scale + speed − urban maturity
Where India is better than Peru
Where Peru is better than India
Just to pick some holes in what you say.
English-language advantage
China, Japan, Korea have done tremendously well without English
Urban employment
Employment should be moved out of cities. Indian cities are filthy,polluted and water polluted too. Pressure for people to move to Cities should reduced drastically
Look at what China is doing and learn.
I think the biggest failure of Modi govn has been manufacturing.
We needed manufacturing jobs yesterday but it’s becoming very difficult to get land in Maharashtra at profit. Gujarat has some other issues. Only TN is doing good on that front.
Wonder when manufacturing spreads to populous North and East where we have cheaper land and cheaper labor.
This is where I think 2015-2020 was a big window missed. If India had managed to get manufacturing kick-started then, even a bit more, the momentum could and would have potentially snowballed in the post-covid recovery and supply-chain re-orientation.
Its not just a land and labor issue, or labor laws. There is a big moat in manufacturing supply-chain, and the only way to break is it to subsidize domestic production – either for import substitution or export. But in India, its deeply unpopular to provide sops to capitalists. and here we are.
I guess , people are also questioning the GDP numbers in Modi Govt because it does not match the consumption data, growth in real wages and people moving into agriculture. they changed the methodology and do not take into account the informal sector.
Have you been to Peru? I have. You are comparing a very different geography and population based on some random econometrics parallels. Its again, laughable.
Rather than being a showboat, you could have given your best example how India would look like in 2035. May I request to be mindful in your comments.
I apologize for my tone. Fair feedback. But its difficult not to get impatient with unserious arguments. No excuses though. I will be more mindful.
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Don’t push your luck..
well good luck. enjoy your administrator.. bye .. hope not to interact with you in future.
True
are you really a editor?
I am; I’m the administrator ..
why did you ask pointed if XTM is moderator/editor ?
Did i miss something
RM’s comments have been good so far
They have been ..
Prof. C Rangarajan , my econ prof in IIMA 50 years back, then Governer RBI gave a nice talk of India’s growth prospects to the alumni
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qGYwX3tKKD43iSoThKot72DiI5TVd4Fq9I7tAUtQ5jU/edit?fbclid=IwY2xjawOEUXRleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFVcW15UEVHQlhpOFZLY1hrc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHi9DU9eCMuet_CvJVtlnlQIc7lILAvmUe15UDS9R173s8OxOfwAfV8JWiieh_aem_XgBxgznTP0xk9JWbi0JgQA&tab=t.0#heading=h.7waketop8tm5
Welcome back VijayVan .
Not forgotten your translation and comments on my grandfathers poetry
On my website as comments to the poetry pdf
A good comprehensive talk with numbers
two excerpts
There are countries in the world like South Korea which became a developed country in a very short period of time. In some sense, we have reached a position right now of being relatively strong. I mean, we really talk about India being the fifth largest economy or the fourth largest, and some people predict in only two years, we may become the second or the third largest economy in the world. But the problem is that in terms of per capita income, when you look at it, we are at the bottom one-third of the nations. In fact, if we had addressed the population problem more intensively in the 50s and 60s, probably our situation would have been very different. But anyway.
which mentioned about poverty line in India and all that. Growth and equity must go together. You cannot have sustained growth without equity. On the other hand, equity will be a distant dream if you do not grow. Therefore, the essential critical point is that we must get both growth and equity go together.
“Indian human resources are potentially world class”
If only. India is the second most depressed IQ region in the world. The average Indian IQ is 76. An IQ lower than 75 is considered retarded.
Low average IQ is the reason India is the way it is.