Brown Pundits – Page 320 – A discussion of all things Brown..

1992: Modi in Kashmir

Brown Pundits Archive · June 12, 2014 · Comments Off

Mr Modi and Murli Manohar Joshi hoisting Indian Flag at Srinagar’s Lal Chowk on 26 January, 1992

Since the issue has been doing rounds in ‘nationalist’ circles, Here are some of the sources on what really happened (without any value judgement from my side)-

Mr Narendra Modi’s narration of what happened-

What Mr Modi’s website says-

Shri Modi himself urged the people of India to strike the
death-knell of pseudo-secularism and votebank politics. An emotional
Narendra Modi watched with joy as the tricolor was finally unfurled in
Srinagar on 26th January 1992! The successful completion of this rare
national mission amidst the most challenging circumstances was a tribute
to Shri Modi’s ability to give effective replies to the anti-national
elements with unparalleled courage, vision, skill as the power of Bharat
Mata yet again demolished the folly of anti-India elements.

India Today’s report of the event in March 1992:

BJP flag-hoisting ceremony in Srinagar turns out to be a damp squib, militancy gets a boost

For the BJP. the Ekta Yatra didn’t turn out to be the second coming it
wanted. There was no saffron sunrise over Srinagar’s Lal Chowk and no
exuberant cheerleaders to shout rabble-rousing rah-rahs. BJP President
Murli Manohar Joshi’s face told the story….

Joshi drove up, on the morning
of January 26, in a police car, to be greeted by the sound of gunshots.

In
a hurry to leave the confines of the Valley, Joshi quickly got down to
the business of hoisting the tricolour he had carried with him from
Kanyakumari. And while a contingent of 67 BJP workers raised feeble
slogans of Vande Mataram, Joshi and yatra convenor Narendra Modi
struggled with the flag presented to him on December 21, its pole
snapped into two. Finally, Joshi had to make do with the state
administration’s flag.

The ceremony lasted precisely 12 minutes,
and there was not a single Kashmiri to witness Joshi’s embarrassment.
Despite the hype preceding the hoisting, Joshi had to fly into the
Valley under cover of darkness, the night before the event, swapping his
symbolic houseboat for a staid Indian Air Force an-32. Because, as a
police official put it: “Surprise is the best form of security.”

Security,
in fact, was Joshi’s main worry. He even spent the night at the BSF
mess close to the airport because it was not safe to drive through the
city. All along the 15,000-km route of the yatra, Joshi had boasted: “We
have more volunteers than the militants have bullets.”

But in
the end. the bullets won, as an audaciously-planted bomb exploded on
January 24 at the police headquarters, injuring DGP J.N. Saxena and four
other senior officers. Added to this were the rocket attacks and the
incessant firing, as well as the attempt to shoot down the Indian
Airlines IC-421 as it was landing in a curfew-bound city.

As
JKLF- commander-in-chief Javed Ahmed Mir told India Today over the telephone: “Our mujahedins are in a state of preparedness. The curfew is
a measure of our success. The entire nation’s eyes are on Srinagar, not
because of the yatra, but because of us.”

Indeed. The yatra
united the scattered militant groups as even the Centre’s worst mistakes
couldn’t. Gathering together under one umbrella and launching
‘Operation Snowstorm’, they set up ‘Maqbool Butt’ squads to tackle the
travellers.

And succeeded in sending a chill through Srinagar’s
ghostly air, which may last long after winter’s gone. For, Joshi’s
coming has swung a losing battle in the militants’ favour and further
wounded the Kashmiri psyche.

The signs were evident on the last
lap of the yatra. Having billed itself as a long distance runner, the
BJP ran out of oxygen after Jammu. Much of it was due to the attack on
yatris near Phagwara on January 23.

As an anxious Atal Behari
Vajpayee, on board the flight to Jammu, said: “The killings in Punjab
could give ideas to the Kashmir terrorists.” They did. By the time, BJP
leaders trickled into their Jammu hotel, the news of the Srinagar blast
wrecked their remaining confidence.

All through the day, L.K.
Advani, Vijayaraje Scindia, Vajpayee – among others – debated whether
politics was more important than protection. And Governor Girish Saxena
shuttled between his house-turned-office and the hotel. Ultimately,
security prevailed. It remained for Joshi to put the seal on the deal.

Soon,
the fanfare at Joshi’s Jammu reception faded into insignificance. There
were no press briefings, no off-the-record conversations and no
official announcements – from either the Centre, the state Government or
the BJP leaders – but details of the agreement started filtering
through. And Modi was blunt enough to tell journalists: “From now on,
you are on your own. If you can, reach Lai Chowk and we will see you
there.”

Convincing the BJP leaders wasn’t difficult. After
consulting bureaucrats at the Centre, Saxena told them: “We cannot
assure your security if you travel by road to Srinagar. We will do our
best, but you will have to take your chances.”

The officials
convinced the BJP top brass that even handing over the national highway
to the army could not guarantee their safe passage. Then, there were
reports that the militants had proclaimed a ban on private vehicles on
the highway from 6 a.m., January 25, to 12 noon, January 26.

The
only quibble the BJP had was on the timing of Joshi’s flight – the
pretext, they said, should be that they had to stop because of
landslides. Somebody up there must have heard. When the yatra set off
from Jammu, there were two landslides near Banihal.

But those in Jammu who showered petals and chanted Vande Mataram
and Jai Shri Ram while sending off the yatris were blissfully unaware
of this high drama. Barely 5 km from Udhampur, when the yatris had
broken off for lunch, District Magistrate B.L. Nimesh told the press
cars to go no further.

And as agitated yatris blocked the road,
they were told by Modi to head for home. Even as they looked on, angry
and confused, Joshi was whisked away, with six others, in three cars led
by Nimesh.

The next thing they knew, two iaf Chetak helicopters
were heading for Srinagar. The reaction of a Rajasthan MLA, Tara
Bhandari, was typical: “All of us feel cheated. What was the need to
bring us all here and make us look like fools?”…

Ultimately, Hindutva draped in the tricolour proved
politically expensive – for the BJP and for the country. The Yatra’s
odyssey to Srinagar was unnecessary provocation at. a time when the
earlier mood of confrontation has discernibly abated. By raising
political temperatures along with the Indian flag, the BJP has lost much
and gained little.

A local Kashmiri news outlet Greater Kashmir’s report on the event (from eyes of the locals)

On January 26, 1992, Kashmir was different. In government quarters, it
was regarded as almost a ‘liberated zone’ with the armed militants
ruling the streets in Srinagar and villages, while in a show of defiance
the Border Security Forces (BSF) and army personnel fortifying the city
centre- Lal Chowk- turning it almost into a war zone.
The
announcement to hoist the flag came in the midst of this situation, when
the then BJP President, Murli Manohar Joshi announced it during a rally
attended by thousands of party supporters in Jammu…
“Murli
announced he would come to Kashmir by road with his 10,000 supporters to
hoist the flag,” Fayaz Ahmad Zargar, 38, a resident of Amira Kadal,
said.
BJP President had undertook “Ekta Yatra” that year from
Kaniyakumari to Srinagar to hoist the tri-colour at Lal Chowk on January
26.
On the other hand, the militants who called the shots in Kashmir
those days were furious over the BJP announcement. All the militant
outfits chalked out a joint strategy to stop BJP from raising the flag
on clock tower.
The militants intensified their attacks from Jan 24,
1992, onwards. In one of the intrepid acts, they orchestrated an attack
in PHQ Srinagar where DGP along with the other command sustained
critical injuries after a bomb, concealed in a drawer, exploded.
It
was the same incident in which Ahad Jan- the police cop who shot to fame
after hurling a shoe on chief minister Omar Abdullah on August 15,
2010- was promoted after he saved the life of DGP Saxena and rushed him
to hospital.
“Apart from attacks, the Mujahideen outfits also divided
themselves with each party getting its share of task,” a former Student
Liberation Front militant said. “The foremost thing for us that time
was to guard Srinagar- Jammu highway. The BJP leaders along with their
supporters had planned to come on their vehicles taking that route.”
In
the wake of militant threats, the authorities imposed indefinite curfew
and issued shoot at sight orders. However, the militants managed to
control the highway forcing government to go for alternative means of
transport. The BJP president was thus airlifted to Srinagar.
With the arrival of BJP president Joshi, the city was turned into a battle zone.
“I
vividly remember the day of Jan 26, 1992,” Javed Ahmad, a resident of
Lal Chowk said. “A radio announcement was aired that Lal Chowk has been
handed over to army.”
Ahmad said BSF along with army erected sandbag bunkers, temporary check-posts and enforced strict curfew.
“They
were armed to teeth,” he said. “Even security personnel were deployed
at each door. They took roof tops, buildings and each structure that
could have aided militants to mount any attack.”
The army was a new
guest in the city those days, so was the heavy weaponry they carried. As
a result, the fear- stricken residents, who lived around Lal Chowk,
fled, except one or two male members who guarded their respective
houses.
“On Jan 26, 1992, we heard only firing. There were explosions
also we could make out from all directions of the city neighborhood,”
Ahmad said. “It was like a war going on.”
Unlike Ahmad, Abdul Rashid,
a resident of Koker Bazaar was unfortunate. He sat on the window sill
of the second floor of his house to smoke and get relaxed in the scary
situation.
However, he had taken only two drags, before the prying
eyes of alert Border Security Force personnel occupying a temporary
check post, spotted him.
“They broke open the door and pulled me by
collar down on the rain soaked street,” Rashid said. “I was kept hanging
body upside down. They did it for 15 minutes in that bone chilling
cold. Then they made me stand on the road. It was a punishment since I
had breached curfew.”
Ahmad said Army and BSF had enforced a strict
curfew and nobody was allowed to venture outside home, especially in Lal
Chowk area.
On the chilly afternoon, BJP president, surrounded by alert soldiers and BSF personnel appeared in Lal Chowk.
During the same time, at least four rockets were fired towards the flag hoisting venue. But none of them reached there.
As
Murli raised the flag on the pedestal of clock tower, the rod broke
down and one half along with flag fell on his forehead. He got injured.
Till
the evening of Jan 26, 1992, scores of people got killed and some
injured. It was reported in Srinagar that 10 people, most of them
militants, were killed at different locations on the Srinagar-Jammu
highway.

“who will help me run my household after Nabeel?”

Brown Pundits Archive · June 12, 2014 · Comments Off

….the bodies of the seven workers were …burnt
beyond recognition. “We could only recognize three…” ….the
doctors gave them three choices. “…bury the bodies near one another while waiting for
the DNA reports, as we were told all of them were Muslims, so it
shouldn’t matter who buried whom”

Not to worry, our elites have made it clear that we are all
collectively paying for the sins a few of us have committed. We must bear the burden
with a few tears but mostly with a smile.

While Pashtun nationalists attempt to transform Pakistan from an impure (as they see it) to a pure country (again) it will be the poor who will suffer the greatest indignities. The Karachi Airport Cargo employees who died were mostly middle and lower middle class bread-winners and their families will sink into mud in their absence. The poor monsoon which has already had an impact on inflation in India (and presumably Pakistan) will hurt even more. But we must remember – as per the dictates of God and fate – we shall collectively pay for the criminal acts committed by the few.

Finally, much as we hate to create a stacking order of victims but this must be said- while three of the seven bodies above could be identified, we do not know the identities of the 25 Shia pilgrims who were murdered in Taftan. Why is that? It seems as if it really does matter – unlike the sentiments expressed by the doctors of Jinnah hospital above- which muslim was buried by whom.
………….
On Tuesday morning
charred remains of the seven cargo workers were retrieved from the
cold-room facility 26 hours after they took refuge there when the
airport came under attack. The families said that it was only after they
staged a protest near the Star Gate that the authorities finally
listened to their incessant pleas. Most of them stood there till late in
the night as huge flames engulfed the warehouse “leading up to the
cold-room facility in a corner”.

Father
of two, Inayatullah had been heading the administrative sector of the
cargo area for six years. This is not the first tragedy for the family
as Inayat’s father died in a similar way inside a ship a few years ago.

Two blocks away from Inayat’s home, 26-year-old Nabeel Ahmed’s
family continued receiving relatives, friends and colleagues in their
two-room apartment in Saudabad, Malir.
Nabeel was the first one
to inform his family about an attack inside the airport. On Sunday, at
11:05pm, Nabeel’s sister Sana received a text message from him asking
her whether there was a report of an attack by militants on TV channels.
“We got worried because at the time not a single news channel had
reported anything,” his sister said. Fifteen minutes later the news
filtered in that the airport was in fact under attack by militants who
were trying to get close to the planes parked on the tarmac.
“The last message that we received from him was that ‘I’m at a safe
place, don’t worry about me’. We had been in contact with him till
4:15am. After that his mobile phone went off,” added his sister.

From
inside the cold-room facility, Fareedullah Humayun was constantly in
touch with the head of the workers union, Yunus Khan.
Speaking by telephone, Yunus told Dawn that he was on leave and was trying to help those trapped inside.
“Fareedullah
told me that there were three terrorists inside the import operation
warehouse which houses the cold-room facility. The warehouse is roughly
400 metres long, full of raw material, chemicals, machinery and
medicines. There were 12 people from the cargo department inside the
warehouse at the time — four of them managed to escape, one is still
missing, and seven of them ran towards the cold-room storage,” he said.

Through the phone calls, Yunus continued giving directions to Fareedullah until one of the suicide bombers blew himself up.

The
terrorists, he said, were constantly firing into the air and at anyone
they thought posed a threat to them. “Fareedullah was also injured and
told me that he slipped while running away from them. Of the three
terrorists, one was shot by an ASF commando; another ran out, while the
third one with a suicide vest blew himself up at around 3am, because of
which the chemicals inside the warehouse caught fire. I lost touch with
Fareedullah soon after that.”
When Fareedullah didn’t receive
his phone till 4:30am, Yunus went towards the warehouse with a few men
to inquire what was happening.

“There are two warehouses right next to each other. One is used for
import operations and the other for delivery. The import operation
warehouse caught fire. From there it engulfed the entire cold-room
facility near it in flames, from where it went towards the delivery
warehouse.”

The CAA director general, retired Air Marshal
Mohammad Yusuf, however, said in a press statement that “the bodies were
recovered from the warehouse and not from the cold-room facility”. But
the family members of the victims refuted his statement calling it “a
face-saving measure by them”.

The families of the workers having
learnt of the fire tried to get inside the facility, but were stopped
by security personnel.
“We understood that they had a bigger
menace to deal with. But we were also pleading with the authorities to
at least get the Civil Aviation Authority to do something,” said Sana.
Yunus
added that after an hour-long wait they managed to get inside. “There
were 10 fire tenders standing there, but as much as they tried to
extinguish the fire, it aggravated further.”

On Tuesday morning,
when the bodies of the seven workers were taken out, they were burnt
beyond recognition. “We could only recognise three — Saifur Rehman from
his height, Nabeel Ahmed from the chain he wore around his neck, and a
slightly burnt picture of Inayatullah in his upper pocket helped us
recognise him,” he added quietly.

Furthermore, when the bodies
were taken to the Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre’s mortuary the
doctors there gave them three choices. “Wait for the DNA samples report,
which takes 21 days; bury the bodies near one another while waiting for
the DNA reports, as we were told all of them were Muslims, so it
shouldn’t matter who buried whom; to recognize the bodies — which is the
most arduous task in such circumstances,” said Yunus.

All the family members decided to bury the dead and are now waiting for the DNA reports.

“As
much as I hate myself for saying this, but who will help me run my
household after Nabeel?” said his sister. “I’ll have to wait for the DNA
samples report. This is the only proof I have that my brother is dead.”
……..

Link: http://www.dawn.com/news/1111875/the-last-message-we-received-from-him-was-im-at-a-safe-place-dont-worry-about-me
………

regards

Green-light for Musharraf

Brown Pundits Archive · June 12, 2014 · Comments Off

In a victory for the Army the Sindh High Court has permitted the ex-dictator to leave Pakistan following a 15 day notice period. During his tenure he played a double game proficiently but then (as is the habit with dictators) ended up making a fool of himself. He should have never come back and in our opinion he will not be missed (he is also lucky to be alive).
….
The Sindh High Court (SHC) on Thursday ruled that the name of former
military ruler Pervez Musharraf be removed from the exit control list.

The
ruling was issued by a two-judge bench of the SHC comprising Justice
Mohammad Ali Mazhar and Justice Shahnawaz following the hearing of
Musharraf’s request for the removal of his name from the ECL.

The
bench stated that parties opposing the ruling could approach the Supreme
Court during the next 15 days, adding that Musharraf cannot leave the
country during that period.

Earlier on May 29, the court had
reserved its ruling on Musharraf’s plea after his counsel Barrister
Farogh Naseem and Attorney General Pakistan Salman Aslam Butt concluded
their arguments.
….

Link: http://www.dawn.com/news/1112244/shc-orders-removal-of-musharrafs-name-from-ecl

….
regards

India’s first female surfer

Brown Pundits Archive · June 12, 2014 · Comments Off

Mumbai born Ishita Malaviya (@Surfishita) began surfing in 2007 and nowadays runs the Shaka Surf Club on Karnataka’s coast with her partner Tushar Pathiyan. She is the first and (uptil now) only professional female surfer in India.

In 2013, She was joined by a group of foreign female surfers, including
Crystal Thornburg-Homcy from Hawaii, to make a
feature-length documentary- Beyond the Surface,
which looks at the ways surfing can be used to empower women in India.

“It was very different to what
we were used to,” says Thornburg-Homcy. “Women are often not allowed in
the ocean for a variety of reasons: such as their dowry can be affected
if they are injured or that families don’t want their girls to have dark
skin. The cities are a bit different, but this is what we found in the
villages,” she says.

Thornburg-Homcy adds: “I think when other
women saw Ishita in the ocean that was really eye opening for them. She
was breaking a lot of cultural boundaries.”

Poor monsoon is payback for Gujarat

Brown Pundits Archive · June 12, 2014 · Comments Off

“We are facing failure of monsoon.
I wonder if it’s God’s will …There has been some sin. God
does not like that. We all remember what happened in Gujarat in 2002.” ……..
We are sort of OK with this logic provided it is applied without bias. Captain Amarinder Singh (as a Congress MP from Amritsar and as a Sardar-ji) certainly knows that Indira Gandhi died as payback for Operation Bluestar. Also, the (innocent) Sikhs of Trilokpuri, Delhi died as payback for (some other) Sikhs murdering Indira. And Rajiv Gandhi died as payback for saying that “when a big tree falls the earth shakes.” Fair enough.

The Hindutva response to the above will undoubtedly be that Muslims in Gujarat died as payback for Hindu pilgrims who were burnt to death. And the agents of death on all sides can claim that they were doing God’s work, that they are actually agents of God.

Finally this is true- when a poor monsoon strikes, the effect is harshest on the weakest sections of the society- muslims included. So in effect what Amarinder is saying that poor muslims all over India will be victimized a second time because of what happened in Gujarat. Food for thought.
……………………………..

Congress
MP Amarinder Singh on Wednesday wondered if the impending failure of
monsoon was god’s will to punish the government for its sins in Gujarat
(the 2002 riots). He said he wondered whether the failure was due to “El
Nino or El Modi”.

The Amritsar MP, who defeated finance
minister Arun Jaitley in the recent polls, was criticizing the
government for making tall promises without any roadmap when he made
these comments in Lok Sabha. He said, “We are facing failure of monsoon.
I wonder if it’s God’s will that it is happening just after polls. I
wonder if it’s El Nino or El Modi effect. There has been some sin. God
does not like that. We all remember what happened in Gujarat in 2002.”

…….
Link: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Poor-monsoon-Gods-punishment-for-Gujarat-riots-Amarinder-Singh/articleshow/36408017.cms

……

regards

Vultures of Calcutta take Direct Action

Brown Pundits Archive · June 11, 2014 · Comments Off

Kolkata, August 1946. Nice set of pictures to go along with the nice times.

One thing must be emphasized. Whichever community was guilty for whatever excess pleads amnesia or seeks revision of history. Better yet, they would like the clock to start the day after….

Thus BJP is proud to state that Gujarat has been riot-free post Feb 2002, Congress has really cared about Sikhs following Nov 1984, Pakistan has been a well-wisher of Bangladesh since Jan 1972……

And yes, certainly no one has been conclusively determined to be at fault for the state-backed terrorism in August 1946, for the 10,000 deaths in the Great Calcutta Riots following the call for Direct Action by the Muslim League. As is the norm in South Asia there is a Hindu truth (the villain was the ML govt of Bengal headed by Hussain Suhrawardy) and the Muslim truth (majority dead were muslims, hence the riots were the fault of Hindus). FWIW there is a comprehensive account of the riots at the link noted below which tries hard to be fair.

An interesting observation- even though the riots during partition were quite violent in Bengal, there was no exchange of population, as had happened in Punjab. It was post 1965 and mostly in 1971 that mass Hindu migration took place from (now) Bangladesh.

Amidst all the competing truths that are out there, the following truths are undoubtedly true-
(1) India will be a hostile place for muslims going forward, while in Pakistan and (to a lesser extent) Bangladesh you can be in trouble if you are the wrong sort of muslim, and
(2) Hindus will in time disappear from a third of the South Asian landmass.
……..

Link (1): http://www.massviolence.org/The-Calcutta-Riots-of-1946

Link (2): http://life.time.com/history/vultures-of-calcutta-the-gruesome-aftermath-of-indias-1946-hindu-muslim-riots/?iid=obnetwork#12

……

regards

Pakistan Predictions 2014?

Brown Pundits Archive · June 11, 2014 · Comments Off

The redoubtable Ahsan Butt has written an article about the possibility of of a “Taliban victory” in Pakistan. Since I have done two prior articles about “Pakistan predictions” (and now that even the President of the Maldives feels its unsafe to come to Pakistan), I thought I would pitch in with part three:

Just to get you up to speed, these were the predictions from 2012:

1. Mutually Assured Corruption. This is comrade Zee’s current prediction (and he claims copyright on the term); Pakistan’s army and bureaucracy used to get first dibs on everything, but their short-sighted policies have weakened their hold over the country and they will now share power with the politicians and the judiciary in an arrangement of mutually assured corruption. This elite will continue to enrich itself and will provide limited governance at least in the core Punjabi and urban areas. The Jihadis will continue to occupy sections of FATA and the current on-again off-again peace process will alternate with tit for tat bombings and killings for the foreseeable future, but they will not be able to expand beyond the Islamic emirate. Punjabi Jihadis will remain divided between true believers and ISI-controlled assets and will continue to be used to milk the Americans and to maintain a background level of Islamism in society. Baluchistan will become Pakistan’s Kashmir, an unhappy population subject to harsh measures but unable to break away. Unlike Kashmiris, they will also be swamped by settlers and thumped by Jihadis allied with the army. In that sense, they will be worse off than Kashmir. But they cannot break away unless a foreign power (the USA and no other) acts on their behalf and that will not happen because the US has interests in Pakistan and no matter how badly the Pakistani army behaves, as a nuclear power they will get a second (and third and fourth) chance as long as they themselves remain aware of the limits of American patience.

2. Jihadi Army. Dr. A proposed this scenario in 2009 and he is sticking by his prediction. He says that that the “optimists” assume that economic self-interest or non-jihadist cultural elements will somehow dominate the hardcore Jihadist elements because economics and deep cultural roots trump fringe Jihadism in principle. But this fails to take into account the peculiar nature of the Pakistani state. Pakistan is the perfect marriage of Islamic supremacism, psychotic self-hatred (i.e. hatred for our own Indian roots) and elite incompetence. The elite may indeed regard hardcore Islamism as a step too far, but they are terminally corrupt and incompetent and every passing year brings us closer to revolution. And in Pakistan, the revolution will not be Marxist, it will be Islamist. An overwhelming majority of the population long since abandoned all “un-Islamic” identities in principle (though not in practice, yet). When the shit hits the fan, they will look towards something called “Islam” to solve their problems. And it won’t be the thinly imagined Islam of Ziauddin Sardar or Westernized Karachi socialites. It will be the real deal; Salafist-Wahabi Islam willing to kill all infidels. And they will start at home with Shias and other internal enemies.

My own prediction in 2012: More of the same. I agree with comrade Zee that the elite will hold on with “mutually assured corruption”. I think Baluchistan will remain a festering wound but it will not reach Bangladesh or Kashmir level of violence. I think some of the Jihadist militias in FATA will continue to fight the state but outside of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa the level of violence will be tolerable. And I think Imran Khan will not be able to solve corruption in 19 days or terrorism in 90 days. In fact, I think he won’t even be able to come into power. I think the US will gradually lessen its footprint in the region and will try to hand over a lot of the local imperialist duties to China, but the Chinese will prove too smart to take up the job. Through all this, economic growth and rapid cultural change will continue in Pakistan and will even accelerate. The army’s hold on the country will weaken over time. Their dream of a “Chinese model authoritarian regime with Islamic characteristics” will remain unfulfilled. Nothing will look satisfactory to anyone, but the state will not collapse and there will be no wider war. In short, I don’t think Pakistan is about to collapse, but I don’t think it is about to undergo some magical transformation under the wise leadership of Kiyani or Imran Khan either. And I don’t think it’s going to see an “Islamic revolution” because there is no there there. The Islamists themselves have no workable plan for any such revolution. They are mouthing empty slogans and at some level most people know this.

The long term future of Pakistan is “Indianization”. Not in the sense of “Indian cultural invasion” or “Indian hegemony”, but in the simple literal sense of “becoming more like India”. Obviously not exactly like India, but close enough for government work; a corruption-ridden, imperfect third world democracy with an expanding capitalist economy and many internal divisions and stresses and the additional burden of Islamic fantasizing. And I think there is little chance of developing a unique indigenous socialist/islamist/vegetarian short-cut past all these problems, much to the dismay of the Arundhati Roys and Tariq Alis, not to speak of Hindutvadis and Islamists. Pakistan will not show the world some new path to the future. It will be a “normal” South Asian country, trying to stabilize a democratic model derived from British Indian roots while working out a modus vivendi between its ancient cultures, its “Islamic” ideals and the modern world. The economy has now become too large for even the narrow elite to be dominated by imperial mercenary duties or scams related to the same. In that sense, things will be a little better. It’s not a perfect outcome, but we do not live in a perfect world.

– See more at this link.

What about now?

1. Dr A (source of the “Jihadi Army” prediction in 2009 and 2012) says he has NOTHING to change in his prediction from 2009. Pakistan ka matlab kya, La illah a illalah (What is the meaning of Pakistan? There is no God but Allah). All has been prepared for the feast. Apostates, liberals and Shias should book their tickets while Karachi airport is still operational. The triumph of the warriors of Allah is not far. Most of the current army will switch sides. And will then discover some decidedly unpleasant facts about their more Islamic partners from Waziristan. Zaid Hamid and Hamid Gul will be hanged in Islamabad BEFORE the attack on Red Fort Delhi ever begins. Somalia will look like a walk in the park compared to the shit that will fly in the land of the pure. Eventually, warlords and mafia gangs will break up the country and foreign powers will try to establish zones of influence in the more useful/governable areas. Or it may all vaporize in a nuclear exchange.

2. Comrade Zee’s comments are awaited.

3. My prediction: I no longer feel confident of making any predictions. As Ali Minai might say, it is a complex situation and unpredictable phase transitions are the only safe prediction. It could be that there will be a stabilization of the Sharif regime and the army will gradually take action against all Jihadists in some mysterious order only they understand. But I must admit that even an eternal optimist like me now feels that it is more likely that phase one will be a continuing confused and inept response from the Sharif government, with the army simultaneously fighting the bad Taliban and undermining the elected government. When the shit has hit the fan in sufficient quantity (shit-fan contact being a process rather than a singular event in Pakistan) the people of Punjab (the only ones who really matter as a people) will be so sick of MNS that the army will be “forced to impose Martial Law”. Phase two would then be a temporary stabilization under army rule. At that point the British colonial roots of the army could hold, allowing it to act as a disciplined force to suppress true believers and brazenly lie its way through to bloody and shaky stabilization of pseudo-Islamic crony capitalist Pakistan. Or it could all fall apart after that, in which case the fate of the constituents depends on how well India and Afghanistan are holding up and what China and America are pushing for (with the minor safe prediction that China will make more rational choices in that situation than America will).
Predicting everything from Sharif stabilization to Army stabilization to complete anarchy is not really a prediction, its many contradictory predictions. That is where I am right now.

Add your predictions. The more concrete the better.

Mithun well protected as he takes cover behind a bicycle. Image courtesy of Ahsan Butt.

Hindu Muslim marriages: what gives?

Brown Pundits Archive · June 11, 2014 · Comments Off

On a personal note, we know of a “developing” situation where a working class boy (muslim) and girl (hindu) would like to tie the knot. Both families (back in the village) are highly distressed and have requested us to put a stop to this. We support the choice these kids have made (why not?) but have insisted on a civil marriage. Incidentally, we also had a civil marriage followed by a ritual marriage.

Why insist on a civil marriage? Tariq Ansari explains in Outlook as part of a larger argument as to why he supports an uniform civil code:
…..Third, at least half of all Muslims are badly served by the Muslim Personal Law. Triple talaq, no rights to
maintenance (thank you, Rajiv Gandhi!) and subordinate rights of inheritance are all examples of how my Muslim
sisters labour under an unfair and, dare I say it, unIslamic set of regulations. I have a daughter and if she
should want to marry a Muslim it will be under the Special Marriages Act, thank you very much.
………….
That said, even with the protections of a civil marriage in place, Hindu-Muslim marriages will remain highly controversial (amongst Hindus and Muslims within India as well as without).

This article below by Saba Naqvi Bhaumik shines a spotlight on the dimensions of this social problem and a Pakistani (Shia) site responds by mainly focusing on the fact that a Shia lady has a Hindu surname!!!
Sad to say, in a few decades even Shia-Sunni marriages may become as controversial as Hindu-Muslim ones.
……..
(1) Muslims are doing it more and more. Well, at least to ME they are unislamic. Bharati Muslims may think otherwise. Look at this article from some shia lady with Hindu surname. Perhaps this is a way for Bharati Muslims to prove their love of Bharat-Mata.

(2) The Muslim idea of ‘practicing religion’ is unique among religions. In
other faiths it depends on how you define ‘practice’. It is near
impossible for practicing Muslim to get into an interfaith marriage and
sustain it successfully thereafter. If one is a true practicing Muslim,
come what may, he/she will not choose to marry a person outside the
religion. Because even if they marry civically, the marriage is void
Islamically and equal to fornication.

(3) We cannot make any generalizations here. It’s obvious that *only*
non-practicing muslims will marry hindus. Non-practicing muslims in
Pakistan, Iran, SA, also indulge in all sort of hanky panky too. A
practicing muslim will make sure his or her kids are raised according to
islamic tradition. As a shia we don’t even agree to a permanent
marriage with a a jew or a christian lady, let alone with a hindu, who
have no or little respect for the Abrahamic tradition. But for those who
follow the sharia of Bollywood, this is a non-issue. In short, the
problem is not where people live, but how they live.
……

It is, however, the elopement of
Priyanka Wadhwani, a girl from a wealthy Sindhi family, and Umar, also
from a leading Muslim family in Bhopal, that triggered the biggest storm
in the city. Incensed, the Sindhi community convened a panchayat. Much
deliberation later, the elders concluded that it was mobile phones and
two-wheelers that were leading their daughters astray and perhaps a curb
was required on these.

A “distinctly Islamic” influence was also
discerned in the practice of Bhopal girls covering their heads while
riding. “They say they do it to protect themselves from heat and dust,”
said Madhu Chandwani, general secretary of the Sindhi panchayat. “But
it’s clearly a fashion picked up from some Muslim girls. We Sindhis left
Pakistan to protect our daughters, and here in India they are moving
around with their heads covered.”
The girls, however, did not
take kindly to the panchayat’s diktat and took out a procession. Sindhis
in Indore too expressed reservations. Confronted with all the
opposition, the panchayat backtracked and said these were just views and
not a firman on the community.

As for Priyanka and Umar, they
are in hiding in Mumbai and are said to have contacted activist Teesta
Setalvad. Umar’s family thinks it would be foolish for them to return as
Umar could be attacked or even thrown into jail in bjp-ruled Madhya
Pradesh. Never mind if the court has ordered that the couple be given
protection.

Priyanka and Umar’s troubles have been compounded by
the fact that Priyanka’s family has close links with the parivar.
Outlook met her uncle Lajpat Rai Wadhwani in the company of known
parivar activist Bhagwandas Sabnani, who is also said to be a close aide
of Uma Bharati. Uncle Wadhwani was categorical that “Priyanka is dead
for us”. More vocal was Sabnani who was not only instrumental in
organising the panchayat but was also behind the creation of the Hindu
Kanya Suraksha Samiti, another parivar front organisation that will
largely be run by the Bajrang Dal.

Love doesn’t enter into the
picture for Sabnani; it’s all part of a larger conspiracy to convert
Hindus to Islam. He outlines the diabolical design Muslim boys
perpetrate: wear tilaks to disguise themselves as Hindus and hang around
girls colleges; threaten and force the girl to run away with them and
then abandon them since they can marry many times.

Bhopal girls cover their heads against the dust, but for Sindhis it’s Islamic

That
both Umar and Rehan have converted to Hinduism is not enough to wash
their sins. “It’s meaningless,” says Sabnani. “Done under pressure.”
With the families of both boys under attack in Bhopal, the Hindu
conversion could indeed have been a tactical move. For Sabnani, there is
no doubt: “In no time, they will reconvert.”

The most sensible thing
for the couple to have done was to marry under the Special Marriages
Act, but it’s a long bureaucratic process that requires a month’s notice
during which anyone can object to the proposed marriage.

Incidentally,
of Umar’s eight brothers, the eldest too is married to a Hindu,
Aparajita Sharma, daughter of a police DG and an IAS officer herself.
Reports in the media said the second daughter-in-law too was a Hindu but
she is in fact Muslim, and goes by the name of Zeba. The rest of the
brothers are unmarried. When Umar disappeared with Priyanka, it was
Zeba’s husband and Umar’s brother who was picked up by the police and
questioned repeatedly for five days.

All their connections and
wealth can’t stop Umar’s family from feeling nervous, enough for them to
refuse being photographed or be directly quoted. They say people who
tried to help them were asked to lay off by the highest authorities in
the state. The police would land up at their house at odd hours and
without warrants. Umar’s conversion is hardly an issue for them. As a
family member says, “He is a 22-year-old child. We are worried only
about his security and health.” Currently the family has round-the-clock
police protection.

Hardly surprising, as many think that the
state government would have allowed a riot had the regime in Delhi been
friendly. But as Sajid Ali, a senior lawyer and Congressman, says, “We
recently complained to the minority commission in Delhi how there have
been 112 incidents of communal tension since the BJP came to power.”

Ultimately, the BJP dispensation decided to back off and told its
Bajrang Dal/VHP cadres not to agitate further. Even the devout doubted
the intentions of the agitators. The general secretary of the All India
Sindhi Sadhu Samaj, Mahant Baba Ramdas Udaseen, told Outlook: “Social
outrage is not surprising in such cases. But these days such issues are
also highlighted for the political agenda of dividing communities.”

And
no one did it better than the parivar outfits in Bhopal. They made
political capital out of the state’s practice of tabulating such
marriages, something it has no business doing. The Bajrang Dal went to
town distributing an ‘official’ list of 341 Hindu-Muslim marriages in
Bhopal between 1997 and 2004. Hardly an alarming figure but enough to
reinforce parivar lore of venal Muslim characters pursuing innocent
Hindu damsels.

Some years ago, VHP leader Acharya Giriraj Kishore had
gone on record to tell this correspondent: “There is a physical reason
Muslims can seduce Hindu girls. They give them more sharirik anand
(physical pleasure) because they have a surgery, Hindus don’t.”
In
Kishore’s view, circumcision is the Muslim’s secret weapon. In the face
of such seductive logic, can reason have a chance?
….

Link (1): http://communalism.blogspot.in/2007/04/hindu-muslim-marriages-give-saffronites.html

Link (2): http://www.shiachat.com/forum/topic/234941571-hindu-muslim-marriages-in-bharat/

Link(3): http://www.outlookindia.com/printarticle.aspx?220920
…..

regards

President 007

Brown Pundits Archive · June 11, 2014 · Comments Off

How Chindia and other links were broken up just in time by super-agent Obama, with a bit of assist from a lady who made the Hard Choice of cutting through the human (??) chain of Chinese Secret Service agents.

The action sequence was in our opinion slightly more dramatic than the kill Osama elect Obama venture. Bravo!!!

Obama is a true hero for liberals in America and the world, but we still feel that impact-wise “Mr Premier, are you ready?” pales in comparison to those magical words: “Mr Gorbachev, tear down this wall”
……….
Eventually they discovered the meeting’s location…...
Robert Gibbs, the White House press secretary, got tangled up with a Chinese guard, she adds.
In the commotion the president slipped through the door and yelled, ‘Mr Premier!’ really loudly, which got everyone’s attention.
“The Chinese guards put their arms up against the door again, but I
ducked under and made it through,” Clinton writes recounting the
incident.
“In a makeshift conference room whose glass walls had
been covered by drapes for privacy against prying eyes, we found Wen
wedged around a long table with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh,
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and South African
President Jacob Zuma.
Jaws dropped when they saw us. ‘Are you ready?’ said President Obama, flashing a big grin,”

………….

At the
international conference on climate change in Copenhagen in December
2009, US President Barack Obama forced himself into a room where the
then Chinese premier Wen Jiabao was holding a secret meeting with the
then Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and other leaders.

Giving a blow by blow account of the incident, of which she was part as
the then secretary of state, Hillary Clinton in her memoirs ‘Hard
Choices’ writes that the purpose of China was to isolate the United
States by bringing together countries like India, Brazil and South
Africa on its side.

But Obama’s determination and presence of mind thwarted such a move, she writes.

“President Obama and I were looking for Premier Wen Jiabao in the
middle of a large international conference on climate change in
Copenhagen, Denmark,” she recalls.

“We knew that the only way
to achieve a meaningful agreement on climate change was for leaders of
the nation’s emitting the most greenhouse gases to sit down together and
hammer out a compromise — especially the US and China,” she said. “But
the Chinese were avoiding us.”

“Worse, we learned that Wen had
called a ‘secret’ meeting with the Indians, Brazilians, and South
Africans to stop, or at least dilute, the kind of agreement the United
States was seeking. When we couldn’t find any of the leaders of those
countries, we knew something was amiss and sent out members of our team
to canvass the conference centre,” she writes.

“Eventually they discovered the meeting’s location.

After exchanging looks of ‘Are you thinking what I’m thinking?’ the
president and I set off through the long hallways of the sprawling
Nordic convention center, with a train of experts and advisers
scrambling to keep up,” she writes in her book.
“Later
we’d joke about this impromptu ‘footcade’, a motorcade without the
motors, but at the time I was focused on the diplomatic challenge
waiting at the end of our march. So off we went, charging up a flight of
stairs and encountering surprised Chinese officials, who tried to
divert us by sending us in the opposite direction. We were undeterred,”
she says.

When they arrived outside the meeting room, there was a jumble of arguing aides and nervous security agents, she says.

Robert Gibbs, the White House press secretary, got tangled up with a Chinese guard, she adds.

In the commotion the president slipped through the door and yelled, ‘Mr Premier!’ really loudly, which got everyone’s attention.

“The Chinese guards put their arms up against the door again, but I
ducked under and made it through,” Clinton writes recounting the
incident.

“In a makeshift conference room whose glass walls had
been covered by drapes for privacy against prying eyes, we found Wen
wedged around a long table with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh,
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and South African
President Jacob Zuma.

Jaws dropped when they saw us. ‘Are you ready?’ said President Obama, flashing a big grin,” Clinton claims.

“Now the real negotiations could begin. It was a moment that was at least a year in the making,” she adds.
…….

Link: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/Clinton-reveals-how-Obama-forcibly-prevented-Chinas-secret-meeting-with-India-to-isolate-US/articleshow/36394480.cms

……

regards

Karachi: After Altaf, the deluge?

Brown Pundits Archive · June 11, 2014 · Comments Off

Karachi, Pakistan’s Economic capital (contributing around 1/4th to national GDP) and South Asia’s largest city- more than twice the area of Delhi with more people than Mumbai in city proper (due to lack of recent census, exact numbers may be debatable here), is also an extremely violent place- no other megacity’s homicide rate comes within 25 per cent of Karachi’s.

Laurent Gayer

Ordered Disorder and the Struggle for the City

Laurent Gayer

Ordered Disorder and the Struggle for the City

Laurent Gayer

“

As if the current levels of violence are not bad enough, Dr Christophe Jaffrelot argues that

things may get out of hand in near future:

Until recently, The combination of electoral politics and paramilitary
techniques helped MQM, retain control over urban Karachi. But growing Pashtun assertiveness has gradually
become a major challenge. According to the 1998 census, only 49 per cent
of the city population are Urdu-speakers (to whom the Gujaratis, with 8
per cent, must be added to obtain the proportion of mohajirs), whereas
Pashto-speakers made up 11.50 per cent, Punjabis 14 per cent, Sindhis 7
per cent and Balochis 4 per cent. But the war in Afghanistan that
started in 2001 and the growing instability in Pakistan’s Pashtun belt
resulted in the migration of one million people to Karachi, the largest
Pashtun city today. The mohajirs felt threatened by these Pashtuns also
because of the growing number of Sunni militants and Taliban supporters
among them.

To resist the Pashtun more effectively, the MQM has further refined
its paramilitary style and introduced sophisticated weaponry. This has
meant an unprecedented escalation of violence in Karachi. While the
previous wave of killings had resulted in 1,742 deaths in 1995 before a
quick return to normalcy, the number of casualties has been rising since
2006 to reach the unprecedented number of over 3,200 casualties in
2013, partly because of the tensions generated by the elections. But it
is not that Karachi is mired in chaos. As the mixed strategy described
above suggests, and as Laurent Gayer has recently shown in his book,
Karachi: Ordered Disorder and the Struggle for the City, there is a
rationale behind the conduct of the parallel state that the MQM in
Karachi has become.

The judicial vulnerability of Hussain, who had been arrested on
suspicion of money laundering and who will have to report to the police
again in July, may affect this relatively stable brand of instability.
Hussain is the one who keeps the MQM united and has no obvious
successor. If the party breaks apart, an already volatile atmosphere may
spin out of hand — in spite of the ongoing deployment of security
forces.

To an outside non-expert, things do look grim for South Asia’s largest city or perhaps I am papering over the stabilising forces of modern economy, self-preservation capacity of local elites/bourgeoisie, spread of PakNationalist brotherhood and the ‘spirit’ of the port city?