Brown Pundits

India made history in this elections: 551 mil Indians voted over a period of 5 weeks. Awesome!!The
overall turnout in all the nine phases of polling this year stood at
66.38 per cent, posting the highest in the history of Lok Sabha
elections, surpassing the previous best of 64.01 per cent in 1984 in the
wake of the assassination of the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. The turnout in 2009 was 58.19 per cent.

It gets a bit complicated but 272 seats are required for a simple majority. If the smallest tally of 249 (Times) is taken as a floor, BJP/NDA will have no problems in forming a stable five-year govt.

Bottom-line, India is getting ready to welcome her first Shudra Czar (long overdue), we look forward to when the Dalit Queen will find her way to the throne (perhaps next elections)  

Shocking BJP wins predicted in Karnataka and Axom, states which
were expected to hold the line for Congress. Massive BJP victory in Uttar Pradesh. UPA
sweeps Kerala. AIADMK conquers Tamil Nadu. Mamata faces
defeat in West Bengal, Mayawati loses big in Uttar Pradesh. Nitish Kumar wiped out in Bihar, Left routed in Kerala but scores surprisingly well in Bengal. Congress
fares better than expected in Maharashtra, Punjab and in Haryana, decimated in Rajasthan and
Gujarat.
 

May 12, 2014. It will be a hand to hand combat between Narendra Modi (backed by majority of caste Hindu votes) and Arvind Kejriwal (backed by majority of sunni Muslim votes). The good news is that apart from some dedicated Yadav and Dalit voters, few votes will be “wasted.” People understand the stakes at hand and will not be distracted by propaganda (on all sides).

This is a caste Hindu dominated city (17 lakh voters), the contest will be between the (3 Lakh) Brahmins and in opposition, an almost equal number of Sunni Muslims (Shia muslims are expected to vote for the BJP). The Bhumihars (third largest community, also Brahmins but with a difference*) are critical as their vote swings towards the BJP. The Congress, even with a Bhumihar candidate and desperate pleading from conservative muslim leaders is all set to score a (distant) bronze medal. The local UP big-guns – Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) – will fare miserably. 

The Election Commission backed by Uttar Pradesh police ordered a massive raid on BJP head-quarters on suspicion of campaign related irregularities. This has resulted in (predictably) virulent demonstrations. 
If a game is being played it is way too complex for a common citizen to comprehend.

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Brief note on a Bhumihar Brahmin* icon [ref. Wiki] Sri Krishna Sinha, born into a Bhumihar Brahmin family is considered the architect of modern Bihar. Barring the war years, Sinha was Chief Minister of Bihar from the time of the first Congress Ministry in 1937 until his death in 1961. He led Dalit’s entry into the Baidyanath Dham temple (Vaidyanath Temple, Deoghar), reflecting his commitment to the upliftment and social empowerment of dalits. He was the first Chief Minister in the country to abolish the zamindari system.
…………….With nearly 17 lakh voters as per figures of the local administration, Varanasi has a dominant Hindu population. According to an official in the district magistrate’s office, of these,
there are nearly three lakh Muslims, and nearly an equal number of
three lakh brahmans.

The brahmans vote is traditionally
expected to go to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), but the Aam Aadmi
Party (AAP) appears to have made a dent.

Bhumihars, the community of Congress’s Ajay Rai, are nearly 1.5 lakh in number.
However, their votes appear to be divided, after local Muslim leader Mukhtar Ansari extended support to Rai.

Similarly, the Muslim votes appear split as well, with many deciding
not to follow Ansari’s call to support Congress, and choosing the AAP
instead.
Kamal Ahmed Ansari, a weaver, said he was supporting the AAP. “Many local weavers are supporting the AAP. They have a feeling he has better chances of winning,” said Ansari.
Asked about Mukhtar Ansari’s support to Rai, he said: “I was a
supporter of the Quami Ekta Dal (Mukhtar Ansari’s party), but now that
he is supporting Rai, his ‘enemy’, we don’t want to support him.”

Mukhtar Ansari is in jail on charges of ordering the killing of BJP
legislator Krishnanand Rai, who was the brother of Ajay Rai. In
2009, both Krishnanand Rai and Mukhtar Ansari had contested the polls
from Varanasi, but BJP’s Murli Manohar Joshi emerged victorious.

Meanwhile, the Congress is making last-minute efforts involving local religious leaders.
“The local elders are asking people to vote for the Congress. Let us
see what people decide,” said Shakeel, a shop keeper in Beniyabagh
locality.

“There are many supporters of the Samajwadi Party and
Congress as well, but people feel the battle is between BJP and AAP,
and they don’t want to waste their votes,” said Amit Singh, who owns a
book store in Godowlia area.

Koushal Kishor Mishra, a professor
of political science at the premier Banaras Hindu University, said
religion was a way of life in Varanasi and politics cannot be kept apart
from it.
“Religion is the centre and a way of life here, when
everything is centred around religion, how can politics be away from
it,” he wondered.

Other major castes here include the
Chaurasiyas, the traditional pan traders who are nearly 1.3 lakh in
number, Mallahs, the boatmen, who number around 50,000, the Yadavs, the
caste of Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh, who number around one
lakh, and one lakh Dalits.

“The bhumihar votes have split, and
nearly 30 per cent may go to the BJP. They are also getting the
Chaurasiya votes,”said Mishra.

…………..
. Amid high drama on eve of polls, UP police and Election Commission
officials today raided BJP office here and seized campaign material,
drawing vociferous protest from the party, but within hours “closed” the
case.

 
The search was conducted by the flying squad of police personnel and EC
authorities amid a ban on all election campaign activities since last
evening for tomorrow’s polls in the city that has witnessed a highly
charged electioneering.

 
BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is pitted against AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal and Congress’ Ajay Rai among others.

 
The raid at the main BJP office of Kashi region prompted a major protest and sloganeering by the party supporters.

 
District Magistrate Pranjal Yadav and Special Election Observer Pravin
Kumar later told reporters that the Election Commission has decided to
close the case as the material was not being used for campaigning.

 
These items were not being distributed among prospective voters, the
officials said. When asked whether such action would be taken against
other parties also, Yadav said that the raid was conducted as per
information received by a flying squad and action would be taken on all
such information. 

BJP leaders, however, said that these were unused campaign materials and
the party was not indulging into any campaign activities.

They claimed that the latest incident further proves the administration
and election authorities’ partisan approach against BJP and linked it to
the local administration’s denial of permission to Modi’s rally here on
May 8.

In Delhi, an Election Commission order about today’s incident said, “On
receipt of a complaint, a flying squad checked the vehicle at the office
of the BJP in Varanasi.
“After obtaining a report from special observer and after finding that
no irregularity has taken place, the Commission has directed the release
of the material and drop further action.”
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Link: http://news.outlookindia.com/items.aspx?artid=840466
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regards

The new Kenyan families – the second and third sons of the Kenyan families (who have been in East Africa pre-war) who now have moved into industry and service sector. Meshing with the old families but still apart in that they pursue industry and haven’t moved to land/real estate yet.

The poor Desis- All have moved since the millennium and are in service occupations or industry. The Indians are usually long lost relatives (same village in Gujarat) as the old families but the Paksitanis are political exiles. They from the bulk of the cricket league (think “Tomil Tigers).

This really tickled the funny bone, we are talking about a navy whose submarines explode while standing still in the parking bay. But apparently the Vietnamese are dead serious (and they have reason to be).

Quy said there was not much clarity in the Obama
administration. “That is why we want India should rise quickly. We have
great expectations from India,” he said. 

The Chinese are placing a strong emphasis on the “peaceful rise” theme these days. What they really want (we imagine) is to set the clock back a few centuries when all subject countries used to dispatch emissaries with lavish gifts to the Middle Kingdom, bribe the mandarins and secure (temporary) favors.

MELBOURNE:  Concerned over China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea, Vietnam wants India to “rise quickly” in the region. “We are deeply concerned by Chinese assertiveness in the South China
Sea. The Chinese navy is acting without provocation. These decisions
seem to be taken by the Chinese leadership at the highest level,” said
Ambassador Dang Dinh Quy, president of Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam
(DAV).
Quy said there was not much clarity in the Obama
administration. “That is why we want India should rise quickly. We have
great expectations from India,” he said.

The remarks were made at a round table meeting of DAV held here on Saturday. DAV is said to carry out strategic research in international relations
and foreign policy, as well as serve as a think-tank for foreign policy
for the ministry of foreign affairs, the party and the state.

The meeting was held for the delegates to share information with
Australian scholars around regional security issues such as US-China
relations, maritime issues in the Indo pacific region and discuss more
broadly Australia’s engagement with Asia
 …     ….……

Chinese ships are ramming Vietnamese
vessels and spraying sailors with water cannons in a clash over plans to
drill for oil in disputed waters. Several
boats have been damaged and six people on one vessel have been injured,
said officials in Hanoi, with neither side showing any signs of backing
down.

Vietnamese vessels
are trying to stop China placing a $1billion oil rig off their country’s
coast. The say they want a peaceful solution, but a top official warned
‘all restraint has a limit’.

The
clash has been continuing for several days since a Chinese flotilla of
military and civilian ships moved into the disputed area of the South
China Sea on May 1.
Vietnam
promptly dispatched marine police and fishery protection vessels to the
area but they were harassed as they approached, said Ngo Ngoc Thu, vice
commander of Vietnam’s coast guard.
He
said Vietnam had not carried out any offensive actions of its own in
waters close to the rig, which is around 140 miles off the Vietnamese
coast.

‘No
shots have been fired yet,’ said a Vietnamese navy official, who could
not be identified because he was not authorised to speak to media.
‘Vietnam won’t fire unless China fires first.’
Another
Vietnamese official, who also preferred to remain anonymous, said that
Vietnam’s ships were outnumbered by the Chinese flotilla. He said the
ships were trying to stop the rig from ‘establishing a fixed position’.

Western
analysts have called China’s stationing of the oil rig one of its most
provocative steps yet in a gradual campaign of asserting its sovereignty
in the South China Sea. China claims almost the entire sea, rejecting
rival claims from Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei.

Chinese
Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying insists the rig, owned by
Chinese state-run oil company CNOOC, is in China’s territorial waters
and therefore drilling is ‘normal and legal.’
‘The
disruptive activities by the Vietnamese side are in violation of
China’s sovereign rights,’ she said. China had previously said no
foreign ships would be allowed within three miles of the rig.
…………
Link (1): http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Concerned-over-Chinas-assertiveness-Vietnam-wants-India-to-rise-quickly-in-region/articleshow/34934709.cms
Link (2): http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2622152/Vietnam-tries-stop-China-oil-rig-deployment.html

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regards 

Saba Naqvi re-visits the famous “moth-eaten” word, to describe the parlous state of Indian secularism. She particularly focuses on the dangers of polarization. It is nobody’s case that BJP has anything to offer towards a unifying agenda. But what have the secularists ever done for India (and Indian muslims)?

Naqvi points out the effect of the poison pus from partition I (partition II is not mentioned, even though she talks about Axom and Bengal) but she should have also pointed out that ideologies are more poisonous than events.

The biggest and most powerful poison source is the two nation theory: “our heroes are their villains and vice versa,” a logic that can equally hold true for Shia/Sunni, Urdu/Bengali, and all other ways that humanity can be divided. Today Pramila Rani Baruah is a hero for Bodos and a villain for muslims: this is the proud legacy of the TNT.

the
rhetoric of Modi/Shah amounts to
this: Muslims got two countries out of Partition and rejected secularism; why
are they still in India trying to vote against us?

It is basically a massive con game. The agenda will be set by conservative muslims males who have only one thing in their mind: Islam khatre mein…..and that’s it. It was the Shah Bano case that convinced the Hindu upper-caste, middle-class (the primary source of opinion-makers) that secularism should be ditched in favor of majoritarianism and gave rise to the BJP as a political player. The secularists are opportunists who would pursue soft-Hindutva (Congress in Gujarat) and soft-Islamism (Samajwadi party in UP, Trinamool Congress in West Bengal) to get votes. Sure they dont have a genocidal agenda, but they dont have the good of any community at heart. Politics to them is an exercise to simply feather their family beds. If the Aam Admi party stands apart from the crowd it will get the votes of deprived muslims as well as relieved hindus. If it adopts the same formula as the secularists it will be doomed to a cut in the vote-bank and nothing more.
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Link: http://www.outlookindia.com/printarticle.aspx?290671
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regards

Now we finally understand how the Tamil Shudras must feel: dude where is my self-respect revolution? Entire rivers of blood, sweat and tears have flown down from Tala-Kaveri to Poompuharam, yet the poor Dravidas are still toiling under the thumb of a super-caste (Iyengar Brahmin) decider.

Moving onto national news, it is reported that Pranab Mukherjee made a sudden surprise symbolic declaration of neutrality, after all preparations were in place for a postal vote (May 12 ballot in Kolkata).

This is not the most important vote (of confidence) from the first citizen. It is likely that on May 16th there will be no political combination with an absolute majority. As per the Indian Constitution this is when the President gains maximum power to inflict maximum harm or good, depending on the point of view. 

Consider (as an imperfect analogy) what transpired in Delhi recently. No party got an absolute majority in the state elections. When BJP as the largest party did not want to rule as a minority govt,the Aam Admi party came to power with support from the Congress. Then wonder-boy Arvind (AK-49) Kejriwal cast aside his crown and in order to fight for the highest chair. Lt Governor Najeeb Jung is now the de-facto ruler and having a lot of fun by beating up evil black marketeers (see below). If new elections are held the AAP may secure an absolute majority on the back of new generation muslim voters.

In the Lok Sabha elections it is likely that BJP/NDA will get the max seats but will fall short of a simple majority. In that event, the President has the discretionary powers to invite the BJP to form the government. If history is any guide, BJP will be able to bribe small parties to form a coalition of the (weak) willing. Sanjaya Baru has confirmed in his book that Sonia purposefully denied Pranab Babu the Prime Minister’s seat (in favor of the docile Manmohan). The sudden flip to “neutrality” may be a sign  that the (life-long) family servant will request for a (cold) dish named revenge. 

Legend has it that the original Chanakya used his super-powers to place a Chandal (dalit) on the throne. When a new-age Chanakya blesses a (fake?) Shudra king it will be one for the books as well. 

………….
    In a
departure from the recent past, President Pranab Mukherjee on Friday
decided not to vote in the Lok Sabha elections in order to maintain his
“political neutrality”. The decision came as a surprise since
Mukherjee, a registered voter in south Kolkata, had ordered for a postal
ballot and would have been the first head of the state to use it. He
was slated to cast his vote on May 12.

In fact, the tradition
for a President to vote is fairly recent with KR Narayanan breaking the
convention of “political neutrality” to become the first to vote in the
1998 parliamentary polls. Mukherjee’s immediate predecessors — APJ Abdul
Kalam and Pratibha Patil — had voted in the 2004 and 2009 general
elections respectively. Both were registered voters in Delhi.

Sources said all formalities for Mukherjee’s voting through postal
ballot had been completed. He is a registered voter in 160 Rashbehari,
part of the South Kolkata parliamentary seat. However, he decided not to
exercise his franchise, bringing back the convention followed by many
past Presidents.

South Kolkata will see a multi-cornered contest
with Congress fielding Mala Roy and BJP nominating state president
Tathagata Roy. Trinamool Congress has fielded sitting MP Subrata Bakshi
whereas CPM’s candidate is Nandini Mukherjee, a professor.
.
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Link (1): http://liveblogs.indiatimes.com/talking-terms/if-mission-272-fails-rashtrapati-bhavan-may-hold-the-trump-card/
Link (2): http://www.smetimes.in/smetimes/news/indian-economy-news/2014/May/09/crackdown-against-blackmarketeer-continue29281.html
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regards

As they say in the liberal circles, Boko Haram seems a bit outlandish, even by the high standards that the jihadists have set for themselves. It is quite possible (as liberals see it) that this is a neo-con plot to gain hold of African resources (ahead of China) by fomenting warfare – Nigeria turned into Afghanistan – as per that memorable phrase deployed in the Guardian.

After having separated facts from hysteria what seemed like utter madness appears to be not so mad, quite normal in fact. Boko Haram is merely following in the foot-steps of giants in (recent) history. When the Pandits were kicked out of Kashmir, the message from their neighbors was short and simple: leave with all you have, leave your girls behind.

Borno state in Nigeria is majority Muslim. Chibok however is a majority Christian community. The girls participating in Western/Christian education were mostly Christian (as per the Christian Association of Nigeria). There were a few muslim students as well, presumably the ignorant parents liked the idea that the girls were studying some useful stuff beyond islamiyat.

All in all it is clear that Boko Haram wants to establish a pure Sharia state which (1) should be populated exclusively by muslims of the right sort (beliefs), (2) girls should only study the holy books, (3) infidels (especially girls) must be converted by persuasion and/or force. 

This is standard issue public policy as practiced in many Islamic nations and if polled would probably attract upwards of 70% (super-majority) of the public in its favor.
…….
A Nigerian evangelist said that most of the 200 plus schoolgirls
kidnapped by terrorist group Boko Haram are Christians, which he says is
further evidence of the militant Islamists’ specific targeting of
followers of Christ.

“Chibok local government is 90% Christian.
Majority of the girls abducted are Christian! Why did Boko Haram visit
Chibok local government? Why didn’t they visit so many other local
government girls secondary schools in Borno State?” asked Evangelist
Matthew Owojaiye of the Old Time Revival Hour Church in Kaduna, who
compiled a list of 180 kidnapped girls who have been identified,
International Christian Concern shared.

Of those, Owojaiye identified that 163 are Christian girls, and 15 are Muslims.
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Link: http://www.christianpost.com/news/most-of-boko-haram-kidnapped-schoolgirls-are-christians-nigerian-evangelist-says-119194/
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regards

You divide terrorists into ‘good’ and ‘bad’ categories to confuse the
people. I believe in unveiling your deceit.

Powerful words from a still very fragile man. Let us at least agree in wishing him full recovery even if we think that the public finger-pointing has been unhelpful.
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Link: http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?290687
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regards

…and the social media campaign against Boko Haram is being run by Michele Obama, Malala Yousufzai and Angelina Jolie, master-class women all.

Finding the girls will be very difficult if not impossible, even with the prize money awarded, many (if not most) have probably crossed international borders. Locally in Borno state you have dense forests and secure hide-outs. Saddam Hussein hiding in a foxhole scenarios are unlikely.

OTOH it should not be difficult to find a few Mir Jafars amongst the Boko Haram units. 

The exact troop combination is unclear, it is better to work with private agencies (like Blackwater) and to outsource all the “enhanced interrogations” to them. Else you run the danger of antagonizing the entire liberal universe who will be rising in action against the evil neo-cons (who are probably using Boko Haram as a front in a bid to control all African resources). 
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A US
task force set up to help find the 276 schoolgirls abducted by the
Islamist militant group Boko Haram has arrived in Nigeria to assist with
the hunt.
Military, law-enforcement and development experts,
including some skilled in hostage negotiations, also plan to tackle the
rising threat from Boko Haram. France, Britain and China have also
offered help. 

The US Secretary of State John Kerry said: “Our
inter-agency team is hitting the ground in Nigeria now and they are
going to be working in concert with President Goodluck Jonathan’s
government to do everything we can to return these girls to their
families and their communities.
“We are also going to do everything possible to counter the menace of Boko Haram.”

The latest developments follow a request by Nigerian President Jonathan
to Barack Obama for help, with the US President vowing to “do to
everything we can” to help find the girls, whose abduction from a
secondary school on 14 April triggered international outrage.

A
social media campaign, using the hashtag #BringBackOurGirls, has been
credited with highlighting the Nigerian government’s response to the
kidnappings and on Boko Haram’s other attacks and kidnappings, which
have terrorized local communities.

US First Lady Michelle Obama
and human rights campaigner Malala Yousafzai are among high-profile
figures to join worldwide calls for the return of the schoolgirls on
Twitter.
UN envoy Angelina Jolie today said the culture of impunity was to blame for the kidnappings.

“I’m actually sickened by it,” she said. “And the thought of them out there now, terrified and being abused and sold.
“It’s infuriating and it kind of goes beyond understanding that someone could do this.
“I think it speaks of a bigger problem which is that because of the
lack of impunity and because people believe they can get away with this
people will commit these kind of crimes.

Earlier, President
Jonathan said he hoped a ‘turning point” had been reached with the
ongoing threat of terrorism in the country and the battle against Boko
Haram.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum being hosted in the
capital, Abuja, he said: “I believe that the kidnap of these girls will
be the beginning of the end of terror in Nigeria.”

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Link: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/nigerian-schoolgirl-kidnappings-us-task-force-on-the-ground-as-hunt-for-missing-girls-intensifies-9344066.html
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regards