Belief, borders and bombs: What long-term instability in Iran means for Pakistan

An important article in DAWN by Zia ur Rehman:

Zia ur Rehman is “a journalist and researcher, who writes for The New York Times and Nikkei Asia, among other publications. He also assesses democratic and conflict development in Pakistan for various policy institutes”

Some excerpts:

Islamabad and Tehran share a 900-kilometre border that has long been vulnerable to militant activity, smuggling networks, and sectarian spillover. Pakistan is also home to an estimated 15 to 20 per cent Shia population, one of the largest outside Iran. Many in this community look to Tehran’s clergy and leadership for religious guidance and, at times, political support.

Experts and Pakistani security officials warn that instability in Iran could increase cross-border movement by armed groups and inflame sectarian tensions within Pakistan’s already polarised society.

And:

Amid the latest escalation, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry condemned what it described as “unwarranted attacks” on Iran, calling them a threat to regional stability, but stopped short of naming the United States or Israel. It also criticised Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other Gulf states.

The government’s position has drawn criticism from some Shia groups. Senator Allama Nasir Abbas, who leads Majlis Wahdat Muslimeen — a major Shia political party — said that the government should issue “an explicit condemnation” of Israel and the United States and formally affirm “Iran’s right to defend its sovereignty”.

The sentiment is echoed not just in the Shia power corridors but also among the public. “Pakistan cannot stay silent when our religious leadership is under attack,” said Ali Raza, a protester in Islamabad. “By refusing to clearly name those responsible, the government is turning its back on its own people.”

For their part, Pakistani officials insist that foreign policy decisions cannot be driven by sentiment; they must be guided by security, stability, and long-term strategic consideration.

“We understand the emotional response on the streets,” said a senior Pakistani security official in Islamabad. “But the state must act in accordance with national interests amid a changing geopolitical situation.”