The West’s War of Decline

Dear friends,

I just wanted to share a thought that’s been on my mind lately. Yes, Trump has attacked Iran — but Iran hasn’t responded in any major way. That in itself is telling. It seems less a climax than a provocation, more bait than strategy. In truth, this might be part of a larger Western pattern: in its long twilight, the West no longer seeks peace but relevance — and sometimes, relevance requires war.

I recently heard a wild claim: that Norway was positioning a remote island of 150 people to tempt a Russian invasion, hoping to activate NATO’s mutual defence clause. Whether true or not, it captures something of the moment — the performative anxiety of a declining order, looking for conflict to reaffirm its own centrality.

As Amar writes, “It is heart-wrenching to see Iran being bombed by two nuclear states, while it remains a signatory to the NPT and compliant with IAEA inspections.” He recalls living in Tehran in 1980, a schoolboy witnessing warplanes above Mehrabad and the skies of Tehran blazing with anti-aircraft fire. That memory isn’t abstract — it’s personal, etched in smoke. His excellent comment is after the jump:

Amar’s critique is sobering:

“This is the first time that two nuclear-armed countries have attacked a non-nuclear state. It shows the NPT has no teeth — just a tool of power. Even the UN Secretary General has called the U.S. attack a violation of the UN Charter.”

He adds that “Iran will perhaps now withdraw from the NPT and look to North Korea as the model: a nuclearized state, untouchable.” That, too, is part of the tragedy — a world in which the logic of restraint leads only to punishment, and the logic of power offers the only security.

Historically, the West has never been more powerful than in the mid-19th century. Today, it is powerful still — but no longer alone. From the Franco-Prussian War in 1871 to the colonial crises of the 20th century, its story has been one of wars that cost it much more than it gained. The wars of memory have now become wars of meaning — to prove that Western power still matters, still shapes the map, still draws the red line.

But history has moved on. The 21st century will not be decided by who bombed first, but by who builds next.

Warmly,

Zack