I’ll add as I go along but this seems quite topical..
I do see the Persian Gulf States emerging as a hyper-conduit between capital, labour and technology. The West is raising up its walls.
I’ll add as I go along but this seems quite topical..
I do see the Persian Gulf States emerging as a hyper-conduit between capital, labour and technology. The West is raising up its walls.
Trump cancelling H1B is the greatest gift he can ever give to India. IT salaries in the US will force even more outsourcing as the price point of hiring a worker in the US spikes
For all the people going to be left in the lurch, with families forced to stay apart, spoiling all travel etc, I will not pretend to understand your stress and anxiety. Our culture shows you the stoic ideal of the maryada purushottam Sri Raghuram. On being informed of Dasarathas vow of vanavas for him, he leaves with a smile on the face and complete calmness.
I think the brain drain has been very distortionary in a way
This is going to get worse. I suspect people will try to wait out Trumps term. Air travel between US and India is going to drop by 10-15% atleast if not more.
I don’t think it’s going back
I think the politics have changed; there is no going back from Trump
Yes, I agree. Trump has stamped the Obamaverse into the ground. There will be a mid term reaction to this but it will only serve to harden lines at the pickets.
Also Trumps only popular policies are in immigration. Those will stay no matter.
I just don’t see Indians coming back willingly.
the West is now raising the gates..
I feel bad and on the other hand vindicated.
I have been saying since 2000 that when the economy goes bad, the platitude of Unity in Diversity will be thrown out of the window, Becoming very apparent now in the US, UK and EU.
I was a grad student for 8+ years, Then 3 H-1B’s with a year in SL every six year. The day I left Sri Lanka in1988 I knew I was coming back. I belong to Sri Lanka and it has treated me very well. Not so much in wealth and things, but education and opportunity.
In the US I integrated more than most. Did not really hang out with other Sri Lankans, except my wife. I had African American friends, Red Neck Drinking buddies. I got on well because I was a boozer and little crazy. i.e. do stuff that seems.risky and stupid. No Yuppie friends. Since I separated from my now late wife have a whiter than white (Irish American) partner. met in 2005 on match dot com and now going on 20 years. As some of mt annoying African Americans say “Barr you made it. Every black mans wish a blond girl friend” (I prefer very dark women and I told her the first day we met).
I feel bad for the Indians who are waiting for a Green Card. It took about 10 years in 2010 (Sri Lankans about 2-3 years). One little slip up before one gets Citizenship then get deported. I would have got deported pretty fast. Probably writing wrong stuff or arrested for bar fights. I dont do protests. They can become violent fast. So need to be on best behavior which I have been unable to do for 50 years.
Keep in mind this not wanting long term outsiders is kind of universal. Bangalore and Tamil Nadu dont like Hindi Speakers working with them. So even worse when the color and culture is different
yes also the NRIs and OCIs have odd relationships with India. they have simply “settled” in the West whereas the idea should be to really speed up development back home.
yes I notice that then they try to recreate India in America..
does your partner live in SL with you?
She has been a Dialysis Patient for the last couple of years. So she comes to SL for only for a month each year (Sunlight does wonders for her health)
I pay for the Dialysis when in SL and I can only afford a month of Dialysis (about USD 1,000). She pays air fare.
Photo from this year. The Person in the center is Kandie King a English Drag Queen who runs the Guest house we stayed when she arrived from US
oh nice to hear that.. cute doggo too
r u a doggo lover as well?
Very nice – we have a few Chow Chows
Mixed Lab.has to be kept from jumping in the pool. We dont mind at all
Sri Lankan dogs hate water
The Indian pariah dog is a purebred dog category of pariah dog. The Indian Native Dog (INDog) is an ancient autochthonous (landrace) type of dog that is found all over South Asia.
https://sbarrkum.blogspot.com/2012/03/pariah-dog-and-sinhala-hound.html
I wrote this on a different forum, but I’ll put it out here as well.
There’s a lot of calumny thrown at the H-1B visas, but the MAGAs are perhaps unaware of the L-1 visas, which may actually bring in more number of Indians into the US than the H-1B. I’m not sure if Trump’s edict covers both kinds of visas or just the H-1B. But the MAGAs’ heads may collectively explode when they see no impact of the collapse of the H-1B program (i.e., no reduction in the number of Indians in their neighborhood Costcos).
are perhaps unaware of the L-1 visas,
I think the deported Koreans were on some kind of business visas
when they see no impact of the collapse of the H-1B program (i.e., no reduction in the number of Indians in their neighborhood Costcos).
Yes will reduce. Not instantly though
a) Depends on the way the USD 100K tariff is is structured. If On a yearly basis then many employers will no longer pay the USD100K. Or the 300K every three years. All those on H-1B see the writing on the wall, very unlikely path to green card.
b) Then there is the kind visa (I-140??) one is on between filing and green card application to time of getting the Green Card (7-10 years for India). Will there be yearly fees??
Lots of uncertainty, so will people find other countries or go home. I think the worst affected will be Computer Science Major and MBA’s in finding other countries.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters on a call Friday evening that the administration came to the fee of $100,000 per year,
He noted that the payment structure is still under discussion with the Department of Homeland Security, in terms of βwhether weβre going to charge the $300,000 up front or $100,000 a year for the three years.β
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/19/politics/trump-h1b-visa-fee
it will be interesting to see how it shapes up
L1?
Business Visa.
Get paid in home country and allowance in US
Many Indian Consultancy/Body shops use it to circumvent the H-1B
I think tbh – employees should have the right to optimise their wages but the idea of just moving families etc..
I actually don’t see why people don’t geo-arbitrage..
absolutely; the toils of migration are so intense
Will just lead to an increase in GCCs.
India, especially South India has become rich enough and has an environment friendly enough that you no longer need to bring Indians over to the USA, just send the jobs to India – way cheaper that way.
Companies that don’t even operate in India like Walmart have GCCs in India.
Yes absolutely. This is only really beneficial for India eventually.
Something very suspicious about the timing of this announcement, just after Trump met all the Tech CEOs.
Stocks also didn’t move as expected (they’ve not been behaving sensibly for a while now anyway, so the signal value has dropped)
Can’t help but feel there’s another shoe here.
yes they must have had intimations on it
https://x.com/PressSec/status/1969495900478488745
Already walked back on it
GCCs will keep on increasing though.
South India is high HDI upper middle income now and is similar to countries like Vietnam/Indonesia.
Lots of human capital to take advantage of.
TACO boy at his best.
The actual EO does not say that though.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/restriction-on-entry-of-certain-nonimmigrant-workers/
-> section a) The fee does start sep 21 and for all holders at immigration (for a 1 year renewable term)
-> section c) National interest waiver which each company can apply for after they have puckered up and applied lipstick.
Basically, the usual Trump admin level of competence. Put out lots of contradictory information, confuse the hell out of everyone and paralyse all business.
3 versions now. What Lutnick said, what the EO says, what Karoline Levitt tweeted.
too true – already a backtracking..
chaos
I think it’s going to be the Persian Gulf that will absorb ALOT of Indian talent.
Not high tech.or comp sci/mba majors.
If they do at half the rate for US/UK citizens.
The mid east is the most racist countries.
Filipinas get the highest rates for women workers including housemaids. Bangaladeshis next
African including the Ethiopians the lowest.
Why because of color.
Sri Lankan housemaids are reputed to get wages equivalent to Filipinas. Reputation of being smart (literate)
India does not allow women to go for work to mid east
Naah, this affects mostly the tech talent and the Gulf simply doesn’t have the tech ecosystem to absorb them.
They will come back to India as:
India has had a massive tech surge graduating from low end support (WITCH companies) to product companies mostly focused on the Indian domestic market (Zomato, Swiggy, Flipkart etc) as well as B2B companies with international markets (Zoho, Postman etc). India does have the third most number of tech unicorns in the world.Rise of GCCs. Instead of outsourcing to Indian service companies, a lot of global brands have realized you can just open up offices in India and hire teams in-house as the ecosystem has evolved enough from the late 90s-early 2000s when the cheap outsourcing support came in vogue (basically cut out the middleman). India already has the highest number of GCCs in the world, which is only increasing. Basically jumping up the services value chain, similar to how China did with the manufacturing one.
don’t underestimate the Gulf..
Yeah, but lack of citizenship pathways means it is a less hospitable destination.
Not to mind the racism.
White nationalists might be racist but the average white person is quite okay with Indians and there is nothing stopping them from integrating.
As long as money is coming in its okay. Let the ecosystem develop more – then these guys can do their own stuff at some point.
That’s how the Chinese pivoted to their own companies in manufacturing (and tbh how a lot of the Indian product companies came about).
People who setup first call centers would have never imagined about these things called GCCs. There are now home grown, tech based, consumer companies in India and GCCs will face significant competition for talent in future.
Median US age will decline faster, if general sentiment against immigrations worsens. India just needs to improve school and tertiary education. Everything else will be taken care by demography and snowball effects.
I don’t know what a Global Capability Centre is?
Most Sri Lankan H-1B’s are not the type that send money back regularly. Our major source of Foreign Exchange is middle east workers. (30% of Foreign Exchange). Skilled and unskilled. Almost all female are housemaids. Male unskilled like houseboy, drivers. Never heard of anyone doing hard manual labor like construction.
__________
It is not the responsibility of the US to sacrifice American jobs just to keep India’s economy afloat..
India accounts for 71% of H-1B visa holders and is expected to be hit hardest by the new fees. Currently, around 300,000 “high-skilled” Indian workers, mostly in the technology industry, are on H-1B visas in the US.
India is the largest recipient of remittances from the US in the world (cash wired by migrants from the US back home). Without feeding on remittances from America, India loses out on over $140 billion (around 30% of their annual tax revenues).
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/trumps-new-100000-visa-fee-could-be-devastating-indias-economy
yes I think the world is structurally inefficient
βIn the true sense, if we have any enemy, it is the dependence on other countries,β he added.
Modi emphasized that India must be self-reliant to achieve prosperity and ensure βpeace and stability.β He called for boosting domestic production and reducing external dependence.
https://www.rt.com/news/624997-modi-names-indias-main-enemy/
I think self-reliance is a misnomer tbh
yes the anti-India animus in the US is just nauseating alas
The world is changing. No more Unity in Diversity
One number fact checked by me
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/canada-rejects-80-of-indian-student-visas-in-2025-so-far-9250980
[…] The Second Crusade (1147β1149) Was announced by Pope Eugene III, and was led in the east by European kings Louis VII of France and Conrad III of Germany, with help from a number of other European nobles. It ended with Jerusalem capitulating to Saladin. His forces then spread north to capture all but the capital cities of the Crusader States, precipitating the Third Crusade […]