Someone on Twitter asked me for my opinion on Pahalgam and its aftermath now that several months have passed. I wrote up a quick reply, which I am posting here. I realize I am not writing much on this blog these days, but life has been busy and I barely keep up with Twitter and reading books, this blog gets pushed down.. But lets see if this sparks some discussion.
The terrorist attack was planned and executed by Pakistani or pakistani supported terrorists and was very likely intended as retaliation for the Jaffer express hijacking (which had shocked the army more than usual). IF (as seems likely, but not yet proven to outsider satisfaction) it was specifically ordered by someone in our govt (and not a freelance terrorist act) then it is also possible that some convoluted geopolitical calculations (or, remote possibility) even direct signals from Americans may have made them feel they have permission. I have no way to know that for sure though. Most such hypotheses are mistaken but we have to admit, we dont know for sure.
The Indian response was built on the assumption that they have the ability to inflict pain and Pakistan does not have the ability to match it and will not risk nuclear war. But IAF did not have upto date intel on our abilities and seriously underestimated the PAF and paid a price on the first day. Whether 4 planes went down or 6, it is certain that more than one went down and that includes Rafales. This was a serious blunder on the part of the IAF and no amount of postwar psyops will cover it up forever.
Subsequent missile and drone exchanges seem to have gone heavily in the Indian favor and Pakistan got nervous enough to call intermediaries and say “next step is nukes if they keep hitting us like this”. That led to Americans stepping in and since BOTH sides actually wanted to avoid full scale war, both agreed to stop. Trump desperately wants a Nobel prize and shamelessly made up stories about how HE stopped it (I think both parties wanted to stop anyway) and wanted recognition for his Nobel. Pakistan jumped on that, but India did not (and for domestic political reasons, cannot) and this has upset trump, he is that petty. Add in real tariff and oil issues and possibly the fact that Trump has realized he cannot get his way with China and lacks the ability to force them and therefore is exploring some other options and does not feel he needs to build up India as counterweight.. in fact, does not want another China, so may actively undermine India. AND he wants his peace deal in the ME and wants Pakistan to join in. For all these reasons, he is now more supportive of Pakistan and will remain so until we betray him or his needs change.
another potential reason of indian losses is the political constraint of hitting only the the terror targets and hence no direct attack on military target to start with
Yeah no SEAD/DEAD on first day.
PAF couldn’t hit anything on the 10th.
In a podcast by with the Indian Air Force S400 operator, he said that they believed that Pak establishment was expecting this, because PAF relocated key assets to safer areas before Pahalgam massacre ocured (and outside of planned exercises)
Watching the US & Pakistan get back into bed militarily I am reminded of this 10 year old interview of Gen Asad Durrani
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z__lyS-wI7c
It looks like he pretty much says that the ISI thrives in the chaos, that Osama was almost certainly known to them, that their goal was to destroy the Americans in Afghanistan while gleefully taking their money to do so.
That is fine, and within my rational understanding of the world. It is the American perspective which is so puzzling really, why are they so into this? Once burned…
Empire thrives on chaos too. Pakistan and the US are offshoots of the very same Empire..
oh wow I had no idea about the Jaffar train express.
I was not aware either, so looked it up.
The Jaffar Express, a Pakistani passenger train travelling from Quetta to Peshawar with at least 380 passengers on board, was hijacked by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) on 11 March 2025.
The organization issued a 48-hour ultimatum for Baloch political prisoners to be released or they would execute hostages,
Operation Green Bolan, to raid the hijacked train multiple times, eventually releasing 354 hostages and killing the 33 BLA insurgents. Pakistani officials said at least 64 people, including 18 soldiers on leave who were identified among the passengers and killed by the attackers, and 33 attackers, were killed during the incident, while 38 other passengers were injured.
Afghanistan and India, historically having been accused of assisting the BLA by Pakistan, have both denied claims of involvement in the attack.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Jaffar_Express_hijacking
Even post that, it has been attacked a few times. Seems it gets attacked a lot.
Hi Omar
Nice to see your back. I still remember the little chat we had about you being a Doctor in Harlem. NY and familiar neighborhoods to you and I
[…] back again with a begging bowl. I, on the other hand, see it as something closer to a post-Pahalgam pivot. Perhaps India is underestimating Pakistan’s deep instinct for adaptation, especially as the […]