Sensex @ 22k

New record.….the market is (maybe) signalling confidence about a stable govt post elections….also perhaps a return of investor confidence in India

Steady buying by foreign investors has led to a strong rally in Indian
markets. Overseas investors have bought heavily into India as a sharply
narrowing current account deficit and a more stable rupee have increased
confidence in a country that only last year was in the midst of its
biggest market turmoil since the balance of payments crisis of 1991.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought Indian shares worth Rs. 1,273 crore on Thursday, extending their buying streak to a 15th consecutive day for a net of over $1 billion. (Read: FIIs mark their biggest daily purchase since December 19)

Market analyst Sanjeev Bhasin told NDTV that Friday could see more
gains though the real bull market could be witnessed in broader indices,
where stocks have given almost 50-100 per cent returns from recent
3-month lows.

“Foreign flows have turned positive amid an easing in inflation, better
cash management by the government with current account deficit hitting
an 8-year low and the rupee rising to a 3-month high. All this has meant
that India has outperformed the emerging markets,” he added.

This is an useful site for latest updates in election news…we now have poll tracker for individual states….IMO multi-corner contests will be highly tricky to predict (much more so than the USA)

current forecast for  
UP: BJP (41-49) out of (80), 36% of the vote
Bihar: BJP+LJP (22-30) out of (40), 38% of the vote

This is a good article (conclusions below) on electoral studies. In this respect it is imperative that Indians engage in better data gathering and analysis and building better tools (rather than trying to suppress information anytime the ruling party is in trouble…as it usually is).

In view of the quantity and quality of election studies in India, it may
be said that relative to other developing countries, India is
advancing. But compared to studies in developed countries, there is
still much to be done. A systematic accumulation of data for individual
voting behaviours seems to be necessary. The Lokniti programme of CSDS
made a breakthrough in the study of electoral behaviour by inventing
most effective methodology unlike other studies in the field. The
publications in this direction provide enormous materials to carry out
the different aspects of electoral behaviour. Most studies which
examined the confidence of people in the election system or the efficacy
as citizens showed that people had faith in the election system.
Socio-economic status like gender, caste, religion, education, and
income were important in explaining political awareness, exposure to
political propaganda, sense of personal effectiveness in politics, and
party preference. Caste, religion, and to a lesser degree, economic
status, are especially important variables for explaining party
preference. Opinion polls of large-scale samples conducted after the
1980’s are important indicators of overall popular issues and
sentiments. The most important issues of the electorate are those
related daily lives of people such as rising prices or unemployment.
These are undercurrents affecting the party preference of people.


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10 years ago

Even the paty lists of canditates have not been prepared, but we are announcing seat wins. Why even have elections, we should just announce the results first.

Brown Pundits