markets today. 09.01.15

Main news items for today being that Greek debt is set to
rise in the wake of the expected election in late Jan. If oil breaches $40 per
barrel than all bets are off. Also important to see the last oil crash in 07-08
where oil dipped a $100 in 6months and then recovered over the next 2years back
to 70% of boom levels.
Yesterday was a broad and strong rally throughout the
markets we have retooled our portfolio to become coupon-heavy however we have
taken very strong African risk (adding to our position) and at the same time
taking advantage of the turnaround ongoing at Tescos (shares rallied 15%).
Non-farm payrolls set to emerge today would provide the tone to the US recovery
while the EU is currently weighing active stimulus programs in the form of bond
purchase.
Other news is the precipitous decline in EURUSD it may even
reach parity. EURO against other assets has really held up but the eventuality
is that with the Eurozone considering quantitative easing & the US talking
about the tenor of the recovery, divergence is expected. Finally of interest is
Santander’s big announcement about slashing dividends, which is the right way
to conserve cash even though it disclaimed any interest in Banca Montei Paschi
(consolidation in Euro-financial sector ongoing).
Bonus on OIL THOUGHTS:

Are we going to see a similar type of pattern where the
long-term structural trend is cheap energy (despite the plethora of oil
suppliers, Saudi Arabia is home to 80% of proven oil reserves and as Oil
Minister Naimi mentioned is more interested in keeping a sustainable market
while weeding out unsustainable producers, conveniently those like Russo-Iran
etc, goodbye Scottish independence?)
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