Open Thread – Brown Pundits

Please keep the other posts on topic. Use this for talking about whatever you want to talk about.

Zack Addition: what’s happened to the Indian elections; was this in line with predictions? Seems either way the big winner is Indian democracy..

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11 thoughts on “Open Thread – Brown Pundits”

  1. I daresay pollsters of all hues have skewed samples that reflect the UHSV minded votebank. I have followed fairly closely all elections from 2012 Gujarat state elections onwards when the Modi hype really began hitting its upward trajectory.

    In general either take the one poll that is most pessimistic about BJP prospects as truth, and/or take the average of polls and deduct 20% seats from BJP to arrive at somewhere close to the final results.

    On the overall I’m not unhappy at states like Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh or Rajasthan doing a revamp of their current dispensation. I was personally glad about Punjab as well when it turned to Congress.

    Folks also need to realize that at the ground level, these elections are not about the top figure as much as they are about putting the local guy that was getting too big for their shoes their place by booting them out. By local guy, I don’t mean even the MLA but in fact the party cadre street ruffian that currently finds favor from the politicians to fatten up his wallets via extortion..

    I doubt though this has any implications on 2019 national elections though. There are LOADS of people that vote left/left-center in the local and state elections and take a more nationalist/right perspective at the national election. This has been demonstrated even in the few states elections which happen to concurrently line up with national elections.

    The only thing that sucks about people doing split ballot style voting (like a Jatav caste individual voting for BSP/Mayawati for UP election and BJP/Modi for national) is that they’re not realizing that they’re kind of handicapping the national govt in a myriad of ways because it is the state legislature that elects members to the Rajya Sabha. But such is life of democracy…

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    1. I think someone is excited without reason. Pistachios are not major consumers of water; the person who created this kickstarter must be thinking of almonds. Most of Pistachio in central valley is drip irrigated. It is rice paddy, almond and alfalfa that are big water guzzlers.

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  2. I have to commend you Zach; that you care about state elections in India, that too in obscure states like MP, Chaatisgarh, Rajasthan. I fly biweekly to India and I missed most of the election news except Telangana.

    The Hindi speaking states are of no interest to the two major parties except the LS seats in bulk that they provide. I do not even care that “democracy won”; democracy won 15 elections, but what is there for the Bimaru people?

    Trash Chandrasekhar rao was in congress for 30 years, and then became CM to draw some Hyderabad cash, but what has he done for Telangana ? except making his son, daughter, nephew and a few hangers on rich.

    Vijaya Raje, JyothiRaditya, all trash. there is not one thing these idiots can bring their forlorn states.
    Pox on all of them.

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  3. I do not even care that “democracy won”

    I am suspecting even liberals are a problem for you. Please do tell, what is the ideal you aspire for them as you clearly think the people havent chosen well for themselves.

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  4. the bogey of rising fascism and endless nonsense driven by propagandists seems to have become irrelevant, modi lost with a whimper. As for predictions, last 4 years, agriculture sector grew 2%, half of what it did in congress. Modi govt intended to keep food prices low, with glut in the international market as well and also restrictions in selling outside the country and prices being too low there was discontent of farmers. Modi govt brought in the “expertise of bureaucrats/scientists” in to farm sector by coming up with some schemes that didnt work and some “soil health” cards, his trust in bureaucracy led to this defeat. Apparently farmers had to do as told by govt in order to avail those benefits without building supporting infrastructure. Apparantly the govt believed they knew better than the farmers for what the farmers needed. Aso, GST was introduced with taxed agriculture related products at 12% to 18% at various levels. In anycase, failure of an entire sector for 4 yrs cost them dearly, next is the jobs front, not enough jobs, also many govt jobs have been terminated, with more digitisation, less jobs even in banks and many govt sectors, that cost them too. In short, modi has zero answers for joblessness and is unable to solve the fact that 57% of the country are trapped in farming sector and he has been unable to bring an alternative. He lost for same reason as congress lost. crisis of jobs and agriculture etc.
    Also, congress went back to somewhat old congress model of being ok with hinduism as opposed to their latter dalliance with anti hindu left for long time. rahul began with sympathizing with ultra left, going to jnu etc. in last year or so, he hugged modi in parliament. strategy seems to be one of negating animus towards congress either by going to temples to show they arent anti hindu. They didnt do this earlier, they did go to church and mosques in public though.

    ultimately the driving animus towards the congress that bjp scripted with hindu undertones was deftly negated. There was a strategy, there was a plan and it worked.

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  5. There is also the fact that they seem to have lost in urban sectors ,in some pockets which they have been winning since 1980’s. The biggest surprise for everyone is in state of chattishgarh where they lost badly, perhaps they didnt do well in tribal segment of populace or something else. That was a big loss, in rajasthan and madhya pradesh, in voting percent and voting numbers, the difference was very small. the big seat difference doesnt tell how close the difference was, less than 1% . BJP got 42.4% and congress 42% in one state. 38.3% and 38.6% in another state. In chattisgarh, they have lost big, 42% and 33% with 8% down swing to bjp and 2% upswing to congress. A new party was formed with an ex cm of the state who got about 7.6% vote for his new party. Farm loan waiver was promised by RG in that state.

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    1. god you’re narcissistic. didn’t even read your comment. general comment. though if you think are that stupid…. 😉

      there’s just a lot of morons who drop into these threads. it’s offensive to me.

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