Browncast Episode 95: Stanford serological study incorrectly underestimates infection fatality rate

Another BP Podcast is up. You can listen on LibsynAppleSpotify,  and Stitcher (and a variety of other platforms). Probably the easiest way to keep up the podcast since we don’t have a regular schedule is to subscribe to one of the links above!

You can also support the podcast as a patron. The primary benefit now is that you get the podcasts considerably earlier than everyone else. This website isn’t about shaking the cup, but I have noticed that the number of patrons plateaued a long time ago.

I would though appreciate more positive reviews! Alton Brown’s “Browncast” has 30 reviews on Stitcher alone! Help make us the biggest browncast! At least at some point

This episode is a discussion with a person who was a participant in the Stanford serological study. Basically he talks about the selection bias in the study sample, and the wrong inferences we can make from that.

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4 years ago

New York did a study on 3000 randomly selected people at grocery stores. 13% had antibodies

Approx. 0.6% CFR, perhaps a bit higher assuming some of the people will develop symptoms and pass away at a later date.

In line with Iceland data ( which has tested approx 10% of total population)

0.5% – 1% CFR seems likely. 0.2% seems way too low.

Old people highly disproportionately impacted, it’s very low risk to younger people. I think there is some propaganda overstating impact on young people to get them to behave.

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