India = Nigeria + Italy in terms of fertility

By Razib Khan 3 Comments


The map above shows the most recent district level fertility rates in India. It is immediately clear why comparing India to Pakistan and Bangladesh (let alone Nepal, Sri Lanka, or Bhutan) is a major error.

In some of the northern regions of the Hindi-speaking “cow belt” as well as the lightly populated Northeast the total fertility rate is similar to what you find in Nigeria, between 5 and 6 children per woman. For comparison the TFR for Saudi Arabia is 2.75. For Bangladesh it is 2.20 and for Pakistan it is 3.6. In contrast, much of the South, Punjab, and West Bengal have below replacement fertility.

Here is 2017 data by state:

State/UTFertility rate 2017
Sikkim1.2
Andaman & Nicobar1.5
Chandigarh1.6
Kerala1.6
Punjab1.6
Puduchery1.7
Goa1.7
Daman & Diu1.7
Tripura1.7
Delhi1.7
Tamil Nadu1.7
Karnataka1.8
Andhra Pradesh1.8
Lakshadweep1.8
West Bengal1.8
Telangana1.8
Maharashtra1.9
Himachal Pradesh1.9
Gujarat2
Jammu and Kashmir2
Arunachal Pradesh2.1
Haryana2.1
Uttarakhand2.1
Odisha2.1
Chhattisgarh2.2
Assam2.2
 India2.2
Mizoram2.3
Dadra Nagar Haveli2.3
Madhya Pradesh2.3
Rajasthan2.4
Manipur2.6
Jharkhand2.6
Uttar Pradesh2.7
Nagaland2.7
Meghalaya3
Bihar3.4
0