Open Thread: Israel Strikes Iran

Tehran has been bombed; University Street, home to a Military Intelligence base, has been struck.

Today is 9/11 in the Muslim calendar: the 11th of Ramadan, the 9th and holiest month.

US Marine guards at the American Consulate in Karachi opened fire on Shia protesters attempting to storm the compound, killing at least 12. Pakistani police and paramilitary Rangers were also present. The Sindh chief minister has ordered a probe into the deaths.

Shia communities in Kargil are mourning the death of their leader.

Imam Khamenei was not just a leader for Iran but seemingly for Muslims around the world. The Muslims of Kashmir took to the streets upon hearing news of Seyyed Khamenei’s martyrdom.

Open Thread – “Open War” breaks out between Pakistan and Afghanistan

This is a quote from Pakistan’s ‘defence minister’ from a couple of hours ago. There is a shooting war on the Durand line, and the PAF has bombed Kabul and Kandahar, including the airport, Taliban ministry buildings and other non-military targets.

This round of AfPak hostilities kicked off with a ‘surgical airstrike’ by Pakistan into Afghanistan that resulted in multiple civilian deaths. The Taliban retaliated by attacking Pakistani border outposts on the Durand Line, and claim to have captured more than a dozen of them, with Pakistani POWs and KIA. In response, the PAF has now bombed Kabul and Kandahar.

The Taliban, the erstwhile creation of the ISI, is now at war with Pakistan. Where does this go from here?

Operation “Righteous Fury”: Pakistani airstrikes on Afghanistan

Pakistan struck Afghanistan early Friday morning in response to Afghan attacks Thursday night on various locations in KPK.

According to Defense Minister Khawaja Asif, the Taliban have become “a proxy for India”.  Asif said: “Our patience has run out. Now there is an open war”.

Those criticizing this operation should recognize that this is exactly the playbook India used in “Operation Sindoor”.  War is obviously not a good outcome for anyone but national security trumps everything.  There had been a Qatar and Turkey mediated ceasefire between Pakistan and Afghanistan but the Taliban have clearly not clamped down on TTP.

There seems to have been a “rally around the flag” effect with even the PTI making social media posts in support of Pakistan’s armed forces.

DAWN’s live blog is here 

 

 

 

 

What Tehran and Harvard Have in Common; And Why Trump Is Letting Both Burn


BRAHM Newsletter is back after a hiatus, and the first piece connects three things that don’t usually appear in the same sentence: the Lion and Sun flag flying on Tehran campuses this week, Lisa Randall on Epstein’s jet, and Trump’s noose-without-tightening strategy on Iran.

The argument is simple. Both the Iranian clerical class and the American academic establishment ran the same transaction; moral authority traded quietly for proximity to power. When that transaction becomes visible, as it has in both cases, the institution doesn’t recover quickly. Trump, whatever one thinks of him, has understood this about Iran in a way his predecessors didn’t. He is letting the regime exhaust itself.

BP readers will recognise the geopolitical thread. The BRAHM audience is wider and less South-Asia-focused. While written for them, the analysis however will be familiar here.

Iran Is Burning From Within. Trump Didn’t Light the Match — But He’s Holding It. Just Like He Did With Harvard.

Pakistan Does Not Need to Imitate India to Be Stable

I would like Pakistan to be a secular democracy and give up its ambitions on Kashmir. Badshah

Similarly the core Hindu-Dharmic civilizational nature of India, that is Bharat, is for Indians to decide. Outsiders demanding secularism often mistake their own preferences for universal law.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh swears in its first male prime minister in 35 years Tarique Rahman.

The morning after the monsoon: Bangladesh votes for a fresh start

Bangladesh Nationalist Party leader Tarique Rahman, takes the oath as Prime Minister of Bangladesh 17 February. Screenshot BBC News report.

Intro

The electorate of this delta nation has given politicians another opportunity to build a democratic, peaceful and harmonious nation. The road ahead is challenging, but some tasks are achievable

Opinion

By Irfan Chowdhury / Sapan News

If democracy had a scent, in Bangladesh it would be the acrid smell of burning tires. For nearly four decades, elections in this delta nation have been martial events, marred by strikes, machetes, and the terrifying silence of the “hartal” (strike). Yet, as the sun rose over the river Buriganga on 13 February, the air was clear. The 13th Parliamentary Election, held the previous day, did not end in bloodshed. It ended in queuing.

For the first time since 2008, Bangladeshis cast ballots that were actually counted. And they delivered a verdict that is as decisive as it is retrograde.

As the final tallies from the election trickled into the Election Commission’s headquarters, the air of revolutionary fervour was replaced by the cold math of electoral reality. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party has returned from the political wilderness with a crushing two-thirds majority.

The numbers are startling. The Nationalist Party and its allies secured 212 out of 300 seats, an absolute majority that gives their leader, Tarique Rahman, the mandate to reshape the republic. For Rahman — the son of the late President Ziaur Rahman and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia who passed away recently — this is a personal and political vindication. Having led the party from a self-imposed exile in London for nearly two decades, he returns to the centre of power

Pakistan’s dramatic drop in fertility

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s average number of children per woman has dropped sharply from 3.61 in 2023 to 3.19 in 2024, reflecting shifting fertility patterns. By comparison, India’s rate declined more modestly from 2.14 to 2.12.

Why women in South Asia are aging faster than in Europe, US

Those are not marginal adjustments. That is acceleration. For decades, Pakistan was treated as a demographic outlier. India fell below replacement. Bangladesh stabilised. Iran collapsed to European levels. Turkey dropped. The Gulf states hollowed out. Pakistan remained “young.” That youth dividend now looks fragile.

Economic Pressures

The fertility transition is no longer creeping. It is sprinting. The familiar explanation is economic pressure. Urban housing costs more. Education lasts longer. Children are expensive. Women delay marriage. This is all true but incomplete. The deeper shift is cultural. Modernity changes how individuals see time.

Rural Norms

In agrarian societies, children are labour, security, and continuity. In urban societies, children are choice. Once children become a choice rather than a necessity, fertility becomes elastic. It bends downward.

Social Media Continue reading Pakistan’s dramatic drop in fertility

Epstein in Peshawar: Not a Financier, Not Just a Predator

The email is dated 1 May 2013. Jeffrey Epstein writes that he has “finally left Peshawar,” describes the city as under bombing turbulence ahead of elections, and details meetings with tribal representatives, provincial health officials, and federal authorities. He claims to have spoken, via a fixer, to a “senior Taliban guy” about polio vaccination resistance. He references funding from the UAE government and suggests granular political intelligence was obtained.

This is not gossip. It is a field report. In 2013, Peshawar and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas were among the most volatile zones in the world. Polio workers were being assassinated. After the CIA’s fake vaccination campaign during the Bin Laden operation, vaccination drives had become politically radioactive. Negotiating access required tribal intermediaries, security assurances, and tacit accommodation with insurgent actors.

May be an image of text that says "From: Boris Nikolic To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: RE: jeffrey Date: Wed, May 2013 15:14:29 +0000 Thank you! Can Even imagine with your mechanism? From: Epstein Sent: Wednesday, May 2013 5:36 town. Hotel had times Sunday security about, meetings constant bombings bombings past. successful meetings who FATA Health, who disarmed publõic health specialist vere together organized aware tactics, and Wednesday ay, reps. Even were about vast amount fjobs sign MOU next money involved. Some UAE Govt, which give information huge grant covering communication addressee. Epstein property disclosure part communication copying strictly prohibited please e-mail this immediately and copies thereof, rights"

A “hedge fund manager” does not casually insert himself into that ecosystem. Continue reading Epstein in Peshawar: Not a Financier, Not Just a Predator

Pan-Sindhi Cross-Border Virality

 

A Pakistani Sindhi song, Paiso Aa, has crossed the border and gone viral among Indian Sindhis. It is light, playful, and unselfconscious. And it exposes something we repeatedly forget.

Sindh has been Muslim for over thirteen centuries.

The region was conquered in 711 CE by Muhammad bin Qasim, the teenage governor of Fars—thirteen when he entered Sindh, dead by nineteen. Almost an Alexander figure in miniature. Since then, Sindh and Multan have known uninterrupted Muslim rule longer than many parts of the Islamic world itself.

That matters, because it complicates a habit of thought that treats Islam in the Indian Subcontinent as permanently “foreign.”

In Sindh, it is not. Continue reading Pan-Sindhi Cross-Border Virality

After the Begums: Bangladesh searches for a new order

In the tea stalls of Bangladesh, where politics is consumed with the same sugary intensity as the cha, the mood is one of jittery anticipation. For 18 months the country has been a state in parenthesis.

On 12 February that parenthesis would close. Voters will go to the polls in a unique double act: casting one ballot for a new parliament and another in a referendum on the “July Charter,” a package of constitutional reforms designed to prevent the rise of another autocrat.

The election is framed as the culmination of a “Second Liberation,” born of the student-led uprising that ousted Awami League in August 2024 after 15 consecutive years in power.

Observers from the Commonwealth, the EU and other nations are in place; the ballot boxes are ready.

Continue reading After the Begums: Bangladesh searches for a new order

Brown Pundits